damn missed your bets but thx for the input hows it going?
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was just about to take the under on the giants game at 6(-105) line changes as I'm betting 6.5(-120)....what do you guys think?Comment -
If it's a girl , how about a take on LTA........Lita
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Mlb 6/6/11
Nationals ml (+ 173) 0.50x (locked)
Giants/Wash under (6) (+ 105) 0.50x (locked)
Padres under (6.5) (+ 1 05) 0.50 x
Tb under (7.5) (-115) 0.50 x
Padres ml (-105) .50 x
God luck...my life is changing...let's do this...best day ever!Comment -
I am calling the under as well, best wishes with your Kid.Nba 6/7/11
Miami/Dallas under (187)(-120) 5x (locked)
Guys, I have to lock this in now and buy the hook. First, pinny opened at 186.5 but is giving the over away at plus odds while juicing the under while otherbooks just opened at 186. I think 187 gives us great value on the under here and it should be all defense and unders from here on out. However, we are only going with a 5x play here because if the over were to hit, it would be this game 4. I almost hope it does so we can get great value on the under in game 5, but I just don't see it happening. Nevertheless, by only playing it for 5x we set ourselves up for a near guarantee of profit by chasing the under from hear on out.
Now, onto the serious stuff. I may not be around here or have many plays for you this week as a long awaited and much celebrated event is about to take place with my wife giving birth to our first child. Her contractions are ten minutes apart as I type this so I expect the baby is coming soon. Therefore, you may not hear from me for awhile. Wish us luck...be back soon and hopefully with a new healthy son or daughter. Good luck....and when I get back, I think we will go on a HUGE winning steak. Im about to be the luckiest guy ever, so I expect that luck to transfer over to my plays when I get
back. I can't wait to be a dad! Thanks and good luck.
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BOL LTA! Take care of that family!
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Congrats LTA!
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Good luck lta. It will be awesome but many sleepless nights aheadComment -
LTA, if i'm leaning on dallas do you think i should go for over instead of under? Will dallas want to score more pts if they want to win?Comment -
Now Under line is 186.5. GLComment -
The under should hit regardless of the winner. Just look at the results so far. Game 1, easy heat win and easy under at 176. Game 2, dallas win with a total of 188 where early over bettors like us cashed at 186, while late under bettors also cashed with 188.5 after the big line move. Game 3, heat won a 2 pt game that dallas could have easily won that stayed under a 180 total. Its clear that all these people correlating a dallas win with the over are basing that argument on the regular season and not this series. Either team could have won game 3, but it was staying under as long as there was no ot. Consequently, I think the over-dallas correlation is overblown. The rest of this series is about defense and half court offense. In the fourth quarter, both teams, but especially the heat, really slow it down and use up the whole shot clock. I don't see this trend stopping anytime soon as each team tries to keep the ball away from the other teams superstars.
With that said, out of the remaining games, I think this game 4 has the best shot to go over, but I don't think it will. I think we are better off rolling with the under here and chasing the under right through the final game for some big profits. Its your call though...good luck in whatever you chose.
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I am proud to report that my wife and I are parents to healthy new baby boy!!!!
Thanks for all the well wishes...we are very excited and happy!Comment -
Congrats! wishing you all the best in life.Comment -
Congrats on the new addition!Comment -
MLB 6/7/11
Reds RL (-1.5)(+115) 0.50x (Locked)
Arizona/Pirates under (7.5) (+105) 2x (Locked)
Some early plays to start the day...I've been up all night so I had a chance to look at the games. I will also have a play on the WNBA total.
For these games, I think Doug Davis gets shelled as usual so we'll roll with the Reds on the runline. Doug Davis is a gas can, so as long as the Reds can limit the cubs to 3 or less, I expect this to be an easy win for the Reds.
In the other game, Correia and Hudson should keep this one under 7. Both teams are trending under and I see no reason for that trend not to continue. I also lean Pirates, but I had to lock in the under now before the price is no longer so attractive.
Good luck!Comment -
Congratulations Do you have a name yet. Maybe lta jnrComment -
Hey congrats LTA...GL..Comment -
WNBA 6/7/11
Tulsa/Minnesota under (167.5) 0.50x (Locked)
It took forever for my locals to release this game and I could only get 167.5. Upon opening at Pinny, it shot all the way up to 169 from opening in the low 160's. I do agree that the play would be over if the total was set at 160 or thereabouts, however, I have this game capped at 162 so I think the steam ended up giving us more value in the under here. History of this matchups shows scores in the mid-160's to low 170's so I think we should be in that range again. The argument for the over is based on Tulsa's lack of defense. However, I think their equally poor offense will keep this game in the low-160's when you factor in Minny's solid D. Minny can score score with Moore, but I think they will slow it down in the fourth quarter and run out the clock for a game that just barely stays under the posted total. I expect this game to be in the 160's, so let's just hope it's the low 160's. We have started the WNBA season off 2-0, so let's hit our third cashing ticket in a row here. Good luck!Comment -
now that you've joined the fatherhood fraternity, you'll end up carrying pictures in your wallet where your money used to be!
congrats and all the best.
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Congratulations on the baby LTA. Definetly a life changing experience.Comment -
Congrats on that baby boy LTA !
Will be tailin' ya on that WNBA play, let's get this !Comment -
Wow...thanks for all the well wishes guys...you rock! I just took a nap and mommy and baby are relaxing, so I'm going to look at the rest of the MLB card now. As a reminder, here's what I have locked in so far today:
NBA--Miami/Dallas under (187)(-120) 5x (As an FYI, the refs in the NBA game are so-so for the under. Willard has a solid over lean but McCutchen and Davis play more to the under (but not much)).
WNBA--Tulsa/Minny under (167.5) 0.50x
MLB--Reds RL (-1.5) (+115) 0.50x and AZ/Pirates under (7.5)(+105) 2x
I'll post if I lock in any more plays. I will probably have a few more, but I really don't like today's MLB card so we'll see.
Good luck with everyone's plays tonight!Comment -
Looks like I will play the Red Sox, but will try to wait for the public's Yankee money to come in an push the price a few cents lower...Comment -
i like the nationals tonight!Comment -
I think I may have a few public over plays for the 7pm games...these public overs have been hitting at a crazy hit rate so we might as well get on the gravy train. We have suffered a large amount of losses in this week playing unders where the public was at 75%+ on the over. We need to adjust and start playing a few of these overs or are doing ourselves a disservice.Comment -
LTA, keep it up man. Congrats on being a new daddy!!!
Grabbed Mavs under 187...keep it rollinComment -
getting on the nationals ml(+123) .5xComment -
Toronto/KC over (10)(+100) 0.50x (Locked)
Mazzaro v. Drabek and I just think we should see a lot of runs today. Mazzaro has been a reliever so he doesn't have the stamina to go deep into the game. Even though Drabek had an early exit last game and should be rested, they are playing in KC and both teams trend over (even though recently KC trends under). Ump favors the over here and I think this public over hits for us. Good luck .Comment -
Welcome to parenthood!!! My boy is 11 years now, my daughter almost 4, and I tell ya, NOTHING in the world makes you feel more complete. NOTHING.
Congratulations, and my thoughts of ble$$ings and great health with you all.
(the no sex for 6 weeks is a myth- after 3 weeks your good to go- although, the wife WILL make you work for it)
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Baby Jesus help us out in the Az/Pit gameComment -
NOW YOU WON'T HAVE ENOUGH TIME ON YOUR HANDS TO GAMBLE
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