LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

WNBA 6/11/11

Atl/SA under (168.5) 2x (Locked)

I have this one capped at 162. I believe a lot of people are letting Atlanta's OT number affect their capping for this game. I think 168.5 is too much value to pass up on this game where SA can limit Atlanta's offense to the 70's. As long as Atl can keep SA in the 80's, this one should stay under. I think it happens.

Does anyone know where I can get info on WNBA refs? Thanks. Good luck.

As far as the other two games, I have them capped at 148 and 146, so I don't see much value now. If the line changes due to money coming in, then perhaps we will have a play.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/11/11

Reds/Giants under (6.5) (+105) 1x (Locked)

Intense game going with Lincecum facing Leake, who has pitched well of late. They are building this one up as a playoff type game and I would have to agree. These are two top teams in a TV game with everyone looking at the over. Not us...we'll have a taste of the under please. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/11/11

Mariners ML (+110) 1x (Locked)
Pirates ML (-103) 1x (Locked)
Cardinals ML (+123) 1x (Locked)
Astros ML (+105) (Locked)

I have a few more leans, but heading on the road soon. I'll try to post any further plays. Need a bounceback from the early games...good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/11/11

Royals ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

Paulino is hot and Pineiro is not. Hard to steal two in a row from the Angels in Anaheim, but I like the Royals to do just that setting up a possible play on the Angels tomorrow. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

WNBA 6/11/11

Atl/SA under (168.5) 2x (Locked)

I have this one capped at 162. I believe a lot of people are letting Atlanta's OT number affect their capping for this game. I think 168.5 is too much value to pass up on this game where SA can limit Atlanta's offense to the 70's. As long as Atl can keep SA in the 80's, this one should stay under. I think it happens.

Does anyone know where I can get info on WNBA refs? Thanks. Good luck.

As far as the other two games, I have them capped at 148 and 146, so I don't see much value now. If the line changes due to money coming in, then perhaps we will have a play.

Indiana/New York under (146) 1x (Locked)

I have this one capped at 146, but I often like to employ the zig-zag on back to back games where the same teams are involved. We saw a game that went well over yesterday into the 160's based primarily on a high scoring first half. I think we see a bit of lower scoring first half which should provide us with a game under. I was hoping the 85% on the under would drive up the total, but instead we've seen some RLM where Pinny dropped down to 145.5 despite yesterday's over. I'm rolling with the under here. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/11/11

Mariners ML (+110) 1x (Locked)
Pirates ML (-103) 1x (Locked)
Cardinals ML (+123) 1x (Locked)
Astros ML (+105) (Locked)

I have a few more leans, but heading on the road soon. I'll try to post any further plays. Need a bounceback from the early games...good luck!

Adding 1x to Mariners ML (+105) for a total of 2x (1x at (+105) and 1x at (+110)

Good line movement supporting this play and I just love a hot Pineda going against a cold Sherzer. Although the Tigers have won most of Sherzer's starts, that has been due to monster run support. With a WHIP above 2 over his last three starts, I think the Mariners get the better of him today for a big Mariners win in back to back games against the Tigers. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Good luck on everyone's plays tonight.

[Krazymojo]

Where is Krazymojo...I backed your boy Morrow today and he let me down. That guy blows...

I benched him today in fantasy...good k pitcher

[Krazymojo]

ughhhh

[ColdBeerHere]

Nice job on that Atl/SA game...once again very close to the total

[aussieH]

Hey LTA that was an awesome write up on Game 6. Basketball is not my number one sport and we don't get that day to day news or games on TV in Australia, so I am learning much from following guys like yourself and Sweetjones Roag & BL. You are all good cappers and good guys for doiing what you do and putting up with the rubbish.

Also great stuff on the WNBA.

Lets get this Game 6 UNDER bet.

[flush99]

Thanks for the picks, good luck today.

[Love The Action]

Crap day in mlb as we have our typical one run extra inning losses and excellent pitchers like Lincecum and Pineda have their worst performances of the year. No worries...we will have a big day today in mlb, nba and wnba. Ya gotta love capping with a baby in your arms ...best ever!

[Krazymojo]

Lets get it big....we gonna add that 5x to nba?

[Love The Action]

NBA 6/12/11

Dallas/Miami under (187) 10x (Locked)

Possible addition of between 1x - 10x depending on the ref assignments and line moves. I actually have this game capped at 179.5 when you factor in everything, including the elimination game under trend. Therefore, I think we have a ton of value in the under at 187 and will play it for 10x now to ensure I get a number I like. Tomorrow, I will look to add between 1x - 10x at a slightly better number to rival my biggest play of the season when we easily cashed a 15x play on the under in game 2 of the Bulls/Hawks series.

I actually think this total might creep up to 187.5 or maybe even 188 at some point tomorrow from a ton of public action coming in on the over based on the result of game 5. However, we know better and feel it's best to lock in 10x now at 187 because I don't want to risk losing a number I feel comfortable with if some big gun hits the under with big time money and drops it a half point. When the game opened up at 189, sharps pounded that down to 187 within 10 minutes. It is pretty clear that the big money sharps agree with us and know the under is the play here. Right now the overall action is pretty even on the total, however, by opening tip, I expect a 65/35 split in favor of the over as all the weekend Joe's start placing their bets. Therefore, we should have some nice public fade action factor in to help support this under as well.

This game is do or die for the Heat and I expect lock-down defense from the perimeter. Miami will use the same slow paced, half-court offense and defense to wear Dallas down just like they did in games 1 and 3. I expect a Miami win tomorrow and a Miami ML/under parlay might not be a bad idea. However, I am not messing around with the side because the Heat are big-time jag-bags and perhaps they have given Dallas just enough added motivation to cover this game in Miami. Plus, a play on the Heat ML has no value right now because of the high price. Regardless of winner, however, I expect a big time defensive game from each team. Both teams shot over 50% in game 5 and I don't see that happening two games in a row where these two teams are playing in a different arena and under totally different circumstances.

Most trends point to the under here, with Dallas on the road and Miami at home. I think we see an ultra-slow pace in the 2h as both teams will be giving every ounce of effort and intensity. Uncontested shots will be hard to come by and even where they happen, I expect a lot of bricks tomorrow.

Adding 5x to Dallas/Miami under (187) for total of 15x (Locked)

This play now rivals our biggest play of the season in our 15x winner on the under in the Hawks/Bulls series. The ref assignments are out and we have Javie, Foster and Stafford with Davis as the alternate. Javie has been one of my more favored "under" refs in these playoffs as he generally lets the players do their thing. Foster was one of the refs in that aforementioned 15x under winner in Hawks/Bulls, so I like that he is on this game too. He has a solid under lean and when reffing Dallas games this year, has reffed to the under in 7 out of 9 games. Stafford isn't the best option for an under, but he actually was one of the refs when we hit our big 10x play on the under in game 3 of this series so we will expect history to repeat itself.

The public percentages remain split with even action on both the over and under. However, I still believe as the public bets start to come in today that the percentages will favor the over 60/40 by tip.

Bottom line is that I see a return to the slow paced and average shooting of game 3, rather than the 50%+ shooting percentages of game 5. I see no reason why Miami would want to run with Dallas when that only helps the Mavs. Miami will force Dallas into a half court offense where they will contest each and every shot. I just don't see Dallas shooting as well as they did in game 5 and I think they also understand defense is more important in this game.

We are riding the elimination game under trend in full effect tonight and fully expect to cash these tickets. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

WNBA 6/12/11

Tulsa/Connecticut under (163) 2x (Locked)

I have this game capped at 156 so I see a lot of value here. I understand that Tulsa does not play any defense, however, I think we should see game stay under the 160 mark. All we need is for Connecticut to keep it under 86 and Tulsa to keep it under 76 and we should cash this play. I expect a final score of 84 -70 with Connecticut winning easily but slowing it down and running out the clock at the end. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/12/11

Diamondbacks ML (-115) 1x (Locked)
Diamondbacks/Marlins under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
Astros ML (+145) 1x (Locked)

Hudson needs a win here after a few shaky outtings, and although Hand has pitched well as youngster for Florida and Arizona does not hit lefties particularly well, I think we see a Arizona pull out a nice 5-2 victory.

The Astros need to avoid the sweep against the Braves ace right now in Hanson. Probably not the best spot to play the Astros, but I'm going to take a shot with a tough luck Myers pitching at home for a nice price with over 80% of the public on the Braves.

The public just continues to roll in bases, but sooner or later our ugly dogs and public fades will start hitting. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/12/11

Diamondbacks ML (-115) 1x (Locked)
Diamondbacks/Marlins under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
Astros ML (+145) 1x (Locked)

Phillies RL (-1.5) 0.50x (Locked)

Doug Davis blows...

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/12/11

Diamondbacks ML (-115) 1x (Locked)
Diamondbacks/Marlins under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
Astros ML (+145) 1x (Locked)
Phillies RL (-1.5) 0.50x (Locked)

Mets ML (+105) 1x (Locked)

Pirates have struggled a bit against both the Mets and lefties this year so I like the old vet Capuano in this game to win a road series for the Mets. Good luck.

[dude_bg]

LTA, do you have a WNBA season record, sorry for being too lazy to check
gluck on your plays tonight, don't need to tell you that the baby could use those extra bucks

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/12/11

Diamondbacks ML (-115) 1x (Locked)
Diamondbacks/Marlins under (7.5) 1x (Locked)
Astros ML (+145) 1x (Locked)
Phillies RL (-1.5) 0.50x (Locked)
Mets ML (+105) 1x (Locked)

Adding 1x to Diamondbacks/Marlins under (7.5) (-115) for total of 2x (1x at (-110) and 1x at (-115)(Locked)

I have to roll with 2x on this one. There are strong team trends for both teams pointing under, Arizona has trouble against lefties and Hand looked impressive in his first start last week and the umpire has a huge under lean/strike zone which has produced 2 overs and 9 unders so far. Finally, the juice has steadily shifted to the over getting juiced at open to the under getting juiced now as much as -120 in some spots. I'm rolling with the under here. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA, do you have a WNBA season record, sorry for being too lazy to check
gluck on your plays tonight, don't need to tell you that the baby could use those extra bucks

I haven't had the time to officially update all of my records as I am too busy with capping the games and all the family stuff, but my current WNBA record I believe is 8 - 4 = +6x.

I will try to get all records updated after tonight's plays. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/12/11

Dodgers/Rockies over (9) 0.50x (Locked)

Public over play of the day. Line jumped from 8 to 9 with all the runs being scored in this series so far. There's a stud rook pitching for the Dodgers but Jimenez has pitched to over at home and we think that continues today.

[IceSlipper]

Just added another 10x on this g6 under, making it my first 20x play in a long while! BOL guys!

[Goat Milk]

Your writeup looks good. As I said in my writeup before the series started, Miami is going to want a slow pace against Dallas because they are comfortable with their half court offense even against a set Dallas D.

But this game is different. 1 adjustment I know for a fact will be made is the Heat will get out in transition any chance they get. They won't get lazy in this game and bring the ball up slowly if they don't have to. That's a fact, because without this adjustment the Heat are just not giving themselves an optimal opportunity to win.

Carlisle also realized last game that Dallas really needs to push the ball to beat Miami. You can walk it up all you want, and be down 7 going into the 4th, and hope that Dirk bails you out every game, but I don't think that will be his mentality.

The total is a tough call because I feel Miami will smother Dallas's perimeter shooters and give guys like Terry and Kidd literally no breathing room. On the other hand Miami will get out in transition tonight, particularly Wade and James and a few easy layups in transition for James should be part of the gameplan for Spolstra.

It's a tough call I have no clue about the total. good luck

[Love The Action]

Your writeup looks good. As I said in my writeup before the series started, Miami is going to want a slow pace against Dallas because they are comfortable with their half court offense even against a set Dallas D.

But this game is different. 1 adjustment I know for a fact will be made is the Heat will get out in transition any chance they get. They won't get lazy in this game and bring the ball up slowly if they don't have to. That's a fact, because without this adjustment the Heat are just not giving themselves an optimal opportunity to win.

Carlisle also realized last game that Dallas really needs to push the ball to beat Miami. You can walk it up all you want, and be down 7 going into the 4th, and hope that Dirk bails you out every game, but I don't think that will be his mentality.

The total is a tough call because I feel Miami will smother Dallas's perimeter shooters and give guys like Terry and Kidd literally no breathing room. On the other hand Miami will get out in transition tonight, particularly Wade and James and a few easy layups in transition for James should be part of the gameplan for Spolstra.

It's a tough call I have no clue about the total. good luck

Good luck to you as well. I may actually have a play on the Heat as well. I am still debating.

I agree both teams will try to score in transition and I think we might see a high scoring first quarter (interesting play would be both 1q over and game under). However, most transition points will be score more out of turnovers rather than just basket after basket and quick shot offenses. When these two teams score, I expect more offensive sets rather than just dribble down, drive and shoot.

Regardless, however, I think this this game will be about defense. I predict a very similar result to the final score in game three. My only real concern is OT. If you look at each fourth quarter in this series except for game 5 where both teams were just shooting abnormally well, both teams take their time, run their half court offenses and look for the best shot possible. Moreover, they are going to run the offenses through the superstars. Therefore, you are going to see multiple passes in order to get Dirk the best shot and likewise for LBJ and Wade.

In a way, I expect us both to be right, but with the under cashing. I would not be surprised to see a fast paced 1h that sees a lot of transition points. However, expect an easy 2h under as both teams should clamp down defensively and give the sort of effort that leads to contested shots and missed shots. On each missed shot in the 2h, the teams will take up court slower rather than keep running like it's a Knicks game. This especially applies if the Heat are winning. When they are up, they like to run the clock down to 5 secs and run an isolation set. I see that strategic trend continuing tonight.

Should be a fun one, but I love the under. Good luck.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I'm also on it. Lets get this LTA.

I'm too chickened to drop anything more than 10x for me. I have learned a long the way and although I'm playing with bookie's money, i still need to learn how to manage it.

Win nicely for me, I'm enjoying my Hawaii trip. Can you believe that I got a september flight + 4 days hotel stay with beach views in Hawaii for around $250 total package? I feel like a winner today.

[Love The Action]

WNBA 6/12/11

Tulsa/Connecticut under (163) 2x (Locked) LOSS
I have this game capped at 156 so I see a lot of value here. I understand that Tulsa does not play any defense, however, I think we should see game stay under the 160 mark. All we need is for Connecticut to keep it under 86 and Tulsa to keep it under 76 and we should cash this play. I expect a final score of 84 -70 with Connecticut winning easily but slowing it down and running out the clock at the end. Good luck.

WNBA 6/12/11

0 - 1 = -2.2x

WNBA Season Results:

8 - 5 = + 3.8x

We could easily be 11 - 2 and with profit well over 10x, if not for three straight days of tough losses in the WNBA. We have managed to profit in the previous days despite losing a few close one, but with today's small card, today's loss hurts. No biggie, but I hate losing on late free throws and needless shots. Oh well, onto the next one.

I'm actually very pleased with my WNBA results so far. That shows me that the process I use to cap NBA totals can be successfully employed for WNBA. Once I get more familiar with the players and teams, I would expect some bigger plays than we might normally have in the NBA on a day to day basis. With only 12 teams and so many rematches, things get interesting and you have to alter you capping a bit. I like it and think it plays to our advantage. I'm excited for the rest of the WNBA season.

[Love The Action]

I'm also on it. Lets get this LTA.

I'm too chickened to drop anything more than 10x for me. I have learned a long the way and although I'm playing with bookie's money, i still need to learn how to manage it.

Win nicely for me, I'm enjoying my Hawaii trip. Can you believe that I got a september flight + 4 days hotel stay with beach views in Hawaii for around $250 total package? I feel like a winner today.

My wife and I love Hawaii. We enjoy Maui the best. What island are you on? Good luck tonight.

[NBA_Brosuf]

My wife and I love Hawaii. We enjoy Maui the best. What island are you on? Good luck tonight.

I'm not in Hawaii now but a trip is set for September. I will be going to Oahu but may also want to visit the luxurious island of Lanai. Kind of pricey there but hoping for a win to cover those expenses.

Good confidence in our total plays tonight. I'm not too thrill about the sides at all. I'm tailing a friend on the sides because he says so. LOL

[Hawaii'sUpNcomin]

My wife and I love Hawaii. We enjoy Maui the best. What island are you on? Good luck tonight.

Hawaii's great and Maui is even greater being that I'm from there as well. Well lets cash this big play LTA. would like to learn one day how to cap everything the way you do...well good luck

[reppin_the_847]

Bro, your WNBA pick today would've been money if you jumped on the 2nd half Under 83.5. We were essentially gifted about 11 free points on the total if you were an UNDER backer since there was a surprising amount of points put up in the first half which went OVER. Add the 91 first half points to the 83.5 and you're looking at an UNDER 174.5 opportunity for the game. Either way you're killing it on the NBA totals. Only thing that can possibly derail your pick tonight is Overtime in my opinion. I'm rolling with you on the Miami vs. Dallas UNDER 187. BOL bro!

WNBA 6/12/11

0 - 1 = -2.2x

WNBA Season Results:

8 - 5 = + 3.8x

We could easily be 11 - 2 and with profit well over 10x, if not for three straight days of tough losses in the WNBA. We have managed to profit in the previous days despite losing a few close one, but with today's small card, today's loss hurts. No biggie, but I hate losing on late free throws and needless shots. Oh well, onto the next one.

I'm actually very pleased with my WNBA results so far. That shows me that the process I use to cap NBA totals can be successfully employed for WNBA. Once I get more familiar with the players and teams, I would expect some bigger plays than we might normally have in the NBA on a day to day basis. With only 12 teams and so many rematches, things get interesting and you have to alter you capping a bit. I like it and think it plays to our advantage. I'm excited for the rest of the WNBA season.

[Love The Action]

Bro, your WNBA pick today would've been money if you jumped on the 2nd half Under 83.5. We were essentially gifted about 11 free points on the total if you were an UNDER backer since there was a surprising amount of points put up in the first half which went OVER. Add the 91 first half points to the 83.5 and you're looking at an UNDER 174.5 opportunity for the game. Either way you're killing it on the NBA totals. Only thing that can possibly derail your pick tonight is Overtime in my opinion. I'm rolling with you on the Miami vs. Dallas UNDER 187. BOL bro!

Yeah, but I didn't have time to follow the game. Time management is key these days. No biggie, the season is just starting and I'm feeling great about it!

[Love The Action]

I'm a bit surprised the majority of bets are on the under 60/40...I really though it would be the reverse. Oh well, it does not derail my optimism about the pick.

[Love The Action]

I would like to find a way to back the under in the Reds/Giants game tonight, but just can't do it as well as the Reds hit lefties.