I am waiting. We can get 184.5 right now which would allow us to buy down to 184 and take the over if we think that is the play. Plus, we might just see 184 at some point here anyway before it starts to go back up and we can avoid the extra risk.
At the end of the day, however, I really don't see a need to overthink this one or try to be too "sharp." This total makes things pretty difficult to call because it's right on the money.
Let's face it, as I have stated numerous times, the under here is really the right play from game 3 onwards. If we chase the under in these next three games, I think we have a high chance of profitability (in addition to the 15x we are already up in this series). With that said, however, most if not all of the value on the under has been sucked out already and if the under hits on Thursday, you can expect an opener of 184 for Game 6. I don't like taking the under in this series at any number under than 187 and even less so at a number around 184. With the early money on the under so heavy right now, we will start to see more value on the over as the books try to cover themselves with more over money.
A total set at 184 for this series is really razor sharp. When you consider the slow pace Miami has been playing, especially the snail's pace they play in the 4th quarter which supports the under and weigh in the possibility that both teams shoot better with more fouls called which supports the over, we might be better off laying off the game total in game 5 and playing the 1h total in favor of the over. It's currently at 93.5, which means we will need one of the two teams to hit 50+ in the 1h. Both teams shot so poorly in game 3, that I could definitely see some fast scoring to start the game. I think the slow pace in the 4th quarter makes a play on the over for the game very difficult. Therefore, the 1h over may be the better play here. Lebron will be looking to silence his critics and I expect both he and Wade to drive to the hoop early and often. If we get "over" refs, then the 1h over might just be the play.
This will be a very interesting game to cap. I haven't even looked at all the numbers yet, but I'm starting to think a 1h over, game under might be a possible here. That is my early lean.
At the end of the day, however, I really don't see a need to overthink this one or try to be too "sharp." This total makes things pretty difficult to call because it's right on the money.
Let's face it, as I have stated numerous times, the under here is really the right play from game 3 onwards. If we chase the under in these next three games, I think we have a high chance of profitability (in addition to the 15x we are already up in this series). With that said, however, most if not all of the value on the under has been sucked out already and if the under hits on Thursday, you can expect an opener of 184 for Game 6. I don't like taking the under in this series at any number under than 187 and even less so at a number around 184. With the early money on the under so heavy right now, we will start to see more value on the over as the books try to cover themselves with more over money.
A total set at 184 for this series is really razor sharp. When you consider the slow pace Miami has been playing, especially the snail's pace they play in the 4th quarter which supports the under and weigh in the possibility that both teams shoot better with more fouls called which supports the over, we might be better off laying off the game total in game 5 and playing the 1h total in favor of the over. It's currently at 93.5, which means we will need one of the two teams to hit 50+ in the 1h. Both teams shot so poorly in game 3, that I could definitely see some fast scoring to start the game. I think the slow pace in the 4th quarter makes a play on the over for the game very difficult. Therefore, the 1h over may be the better play here. Lebron will be looking to silence his critics and I expect both he and Wade to drive to the hoop early and often. If we get "over" refs, then the 1h over might just be the play.
This will be a very interesting game to cap. I haven't even looked at all the numbers yet, but I'm starting to think a 1h over, game under might be a possible here. That is my early lean.
