LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

NBA 6/2/11

Dallas/Miami over (186) 5x (locked)

Will give you my thoughts later, but I don't think the total will go below 186 and I won't have time to watch the lines so I'm locking it in now at a number I like.

Adding 2.5x for total of 7.5x on over at 186

Line movement supports this play as bookmaker moved to 187 and pinny is juicing the over at 186 despite most action on the under so far. I don't think we see 186 for long so I added now. This may end up another 10x play when all is said and done. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

For all you hockey experts, what is the play tonight? Thanks.

[ColdBeerHere]

LTA, seems like a lot of people are on the bruins tonight b/c of the value....Personally I think the Nuck's take the series...I also think they take game one...but -200 is a lot of juice....I got nucks at +160 to take series from earlier bet....

The best stat I loved was that the Nuck's are the first team since the 1970 something Hab's to lead the league in both GF and GA....That Hab team won the cup....Nucks gettin Maholtra back I believe...Their crowd is going to be so pumped (I know B's have good road record)....Nucks were all over sharks at times....I just think it's their Cup....

Now if I didn't have the series locked in I might bet PL tonight to try and get some more $$$ out of this game and series........I could see a 4-2, 3-1 win tonight....Since I am confident I will hit my series pick...I am not going to get greedy (I have enough bets going on already between nba, mlb, and soccer)....So I am going to reduce my unit to 1/2 and chase bet the Nucks till they win the cup....I just hate playing juice like that...I would be content with winning 3.6 units on the series ....

I'd like to think the Nucks take this one in 5 games....But the B's didn't get here on accident...They have great goaltending, and good defense....They could make this series go 6 or 7....My mind was set on the Nucks before the last two series were even finished.....I'm ridin' em' out.....

**not claiming to be an expert. just adding my 2 cents **

[Love The Action]

LTA, seems like a lot of people are on the bruins tonight b/c of the value....Personally I think the Nuck's take the series...I also think they take game one...but -200 is a lot of juice....I got nucks at +160 to take series from earlier bet....

The best stat I loved was that the Nuck's are the first team since the 1970 something Hab's to lead the league in both GF and GA....That Hab team won the cup....Nucks gettin Maholtra back I believe...Their crowd is going to be so pumped (I know B's have good road record)....Nucks were all over sharks at times....I just think it's their Cup....

Now if I didn't have the series locked in I might bet PL tonight to try and get some more $$$ out of this game and series........I could see a 4-2, 3-1 win tonight....Since I am confident I will hit my series pick...I am not going to get greedy (I have enough bets going on already between nba, mlb, and soccer)....So I am going to reduce my unit to 1/2 and chase bet the Nucks till they win the cup....I just hate playing juice like that...I would be content with winning 3.6 units on the series ....

I'd like to think the Nucks take this one in 5 games....But the B's didn't get here on accident...They have great goaltending, and good defense....They could make this series go 6 or 7....My mind was set on the Nucks before the last two series were even finished.....I'm ridin' em' out.....

**not claiming to be an expert. just adding my 2 cents **

Thanks for sharing. I like the Canucks too

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/1/11

Padres/Braves under (7) (+105) 2x (Locked) PUSH
Marlins/Diamondbacks over (9) 2x (Locked) WINNER
Astros ML (+125) 0.50x (Locked) WINNER
Angels/Royals over (9.5) 1x (locked) LOSS
Rangers/TB under (7.5) (-115) 1x (locked) WINNER
Nationals ML (+ 135) 0.50x (locked) WINNER
Orioles/Mariners under (6.5) 2x (locked) WINNER

MLB 6/1/11 Recap:

5 - 1 - 1 = + 5.2x

In this thread:

89 - 82 = +14.38x

We continue our three day hot streak in MLB. I had continually mentioned that I was due for a hot streak and it came this week and hopefully continues right on through the weekend. Over the last three days and our last 23 plays, we have gone 15 - 6 - 2 for a profit exceeding 14.5x. Not bad....hope you guys got on a few of these winners! Let's do it all over again tomorrow. From here on out, we will be putting in a few plays each night that we think will lose value if we wait. MLB is like any other sport and it's all about price. We need to continually strive to get the price as possible on every play. Good luck!

[suicidekings]

MLB is like any other sport and it's all about price. We need to continually strive to get the price as possible on every play. Good luck!

I would say it's probably the most relevant and advantageous in baseball to get the best price compared to other sports because they're moneyline based and the sheer number of plays in a week/season. A few percent here and there over a large volume of plays makes a HUGE difference to our bottom line.

Nice run you've been on, LTA

[ColdBeerHere]

Nice job the last few days LTA, keep up the good cappin' ....I've had a tougher time the last few as well a few that I know

[Crazygamble]

good luck my brother

[Love The Action]

I would say it's probably the most relevant and advantageous in baseball to get the best price compared to other sports because they're moneyline based and the sheer number of plays in a week/season. A few percent here and there over a large volume of plays makes a HUGE difference to our bottom line.

Nice run you've been on, LTA

[aussieH]

Well done lta. Let's get the over in the NBA

[Love The Action]

NBA 6/2/11

Dallas/Miami over (186) 5x (locked)

Will give you my thoughts later, but I don't think the total will go below 186 and I won't have time to watch the lines so I'm locking it in now at a number I like.

Adding 2.5x for total of 7.5x on over at 186

Line movement supports this play as bookmaker moved to 187 and pinny is juicing the over at 186 despite most action on the under so far. I don't think we see 186 for long so I added now. This may end up another 10x play when all is said and done. Good luck.

I am currently on the game 2 over for 7.5x at 186 and may add units upon reviewing the ref assignments. As you know, we lost the over in game 1 due primarily to record-setting futility with respect to 1q scoring. Even with this record low 1q, we only missed cashing the game 1 over by 10 points. That's only 5 shots and I think these two teams find a way to hit 5 more shots today. I've read several articles that quoted certain books who confirmed that most of the public's money was on the under in game 1 (despite of the betting percentages), while most of the sharp money was on the over. That is why you saw game 1's total rise so much from a low of 186.5 to a high of 189.5 in some books. I think we will see the same type of line move today as the sharps realize what we do - simply that both teams shook off the rust and will come out shooting much better than they did in game 1.

You can check out post #1552 for why I am taking the over in game 2 as all my reasoning applying to game 1 also applies to this game 2. In game 1, I simply underestimated the effect the long layoff had on these two teams, but especially Dallas who relies on rhythm shooting more than Miami. Dallas had 5 games off after beating OKC before game 1. Despite practicing, they lost the rhythm and momentum that coincided with their hot streak in the playoffs. I'm not denying Miami plays great defense, however, Dallas missed a ton of open looks in game 1 and that game could have easily went over if we get just 5 more made shots. I think we see those additional shots fall in game 2. Both teams will shot under 38% in game one. All we need is that percentage to get up to the 42% - 44% range and this game will sail over.

I'm still not sure about the side, but I think we see a Dallas cover. Perhaps a small play on Dallas as well, but I doubt it. Let's just get this over tonight! Good luck today on all your plays

[IceSlipper]

186 looks pretty sharp to me, but ill be riding with you again on the over LTA!

Doubling my play from 5x to 10x this time around! Lets cash it! GL Everyone

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/2/11

Pirates/Mets under (7.5) (-115) 1x (Locked)

I may add a unit or two later, but I wanted to get this in now in case we see a drop down to 7. The public is pounding the over, but I think we see this line stay constant at 7.5 or lower. Maholm is one of the best under bets going right now as the Pirates are 9 - 1 in favor of the under when he starts. On the other side, the Mets are 5-4 in favor of the over when Pelfrey starts. That actually supports the under when you factor in that the Mets are 33 - 19 in favor the over on the year as a whole and are really one of the best over bets. Pelfrey gives us pretty good shot at the under here as he has a respectable ERA of 3.48 and WHIP of 1.16 in his last 3 starts. I think we see Pelfrey pitch well today gainst an offensively challenged Pirates lineup. I expect a 3-2 or 4-2 type of game with both Maholm and Pelfrey pitching well.

TB/Mariners under (6.5) (-115) 2x (Locked)

I locked this one in right before I fell asleep last night. The price has gone up to the -120 range as of this morning. Even though this might end up being a public play, I have to agree with the public here that Shields and Hernandez should have a classic pitching battle tonight. TB has been one of the best under bets all year and both Shields and Hernandez have lights-out stuff. Their numbers are staggering - Shields has an ERA 2.15 and WHIP of 0.97 this year to Hernandez's 3.18 and 1.13. However, in their last 3 games, both pitchers have ERA's in the low 2's and WHIPS of 1. Both offenses are improving, but, based on the pitching matchup, I think we see a 2-1 or 3-2 type of game. Possible addition of units on both plays and more picks to come. Good luck!

[flush99]

BOL on your plays today

[migz]

Refs for MIA/DAL - J. Crawford E. Malloy K. Mauer

[Redscot]

Always enjoy your insights LTA. I am still mulling my plays for tonight but want to take advantage of the 186. Was thinking of putting in a preliminary teaser on Dallas and over +8 1/2 - 182 laying 11 to get 10. What are your feelings about Dallas tonight?

[IceSlipper]

eek mauer

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/2/11

Pirates/Mets under (7.5) (-115) 1x (Locked)

I may add a unit or two later, but I wanted to get this in now in case we see a drop down to 7. The public is pounding the over, but I think we see this line stay constant at 7.5 or lower. Maholm is one of the best under bets going right now as the Pirates are 9 - 1 in favor of the under when he starts. On the other side, the Mets are 5-4 in favor of the over when Pelfrey starts. That actually supports the under when you factor in that the Mets are 33 - 19 in favor the over on the year as a whole and are really one of the best over bets. Pelfrey gives us pretty good shot at the under here as he has a respectable ERA of 3.48 and WHIP of 1.16 in his last 3 starts. I think we see Pelfrey pitch well today gainst an offensively challenged Pirates lineup. I expect a 3-2 or 4-2 type of game with both Maholm and Pelfrey pitching well.

TB/Mariners under (6.5) (-115) 2x (Locked)

I locked this one in right before I fell asleep last night. The price has gone up to the -120 range as of this morning. Even though this might end up being a public play, I have to agree with the public here that Shields and Hernandez should have a classic pitching battle tonight. TB has been one of the best under bets all year and both Shields and Hernandez have lights-out stuff. Their numbers are staggering - Shields has an ERA 2.15 and WHIP of 0.97 this year to Hernandez's 3.18 and 1.13. However, in their last 3 games, both pitchers have ERA's in the low 2's and WHIPS of 1. Both offenses are improving, but, based on the pitching matchup, I think we see a 2-1 or 3-2 type of game. Possible addition of units on both plays and more picks to come. Good luck!

Adding 1x to Pirates/Mets under at (7) (+ 105) for total of 2x

This basically gives me better than -110 odds if it goes over but if the total hits 7, then I push on one of the units and win the other. I may do the same if I add to the tb under. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Always enjoy your insights LTA. I am still mulling my plays for tonight but want to take advantage of the 186. Was thinking of putting in a preliminary teaser on Dallas and over +8 1/2 - 182 laying 11 to get 10. What are your feelings about Dallas tonight?

I lean dallas but with the officiating skewed to favor miami, I will probably not play the side. If you like dallas, you might as well play the ml because if the heat win they will most likely cover as well because of the extra free throws. Good luck on your plays.

[Redscot]

Yeah, I kinda see it pick'em, slight lean Miami perhaps, just can't see Dallas losing by more than 8 though.

[Love The Action]

Refs for MIA/DAL - J. Crawford E. Malloy K. Mauer

Its always nice to see crawford when you have the over but malloy and especially mauer are no help. Regardless, because the heat are involved, we will get at least 50 -55 ft attempts tonight which is just what we need. Im feeling confident about this play and the line is already up to 186.5...

[GAMBLOR777]

agree with the under in the mets game good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/2/11

Adding 3x to Pirates/Mets under for total of 5x as follows:
3x under (7) (+ 105)
1x under (7.5) (-115)
1x under (7.5) (-110)

I really like this play for all the reasons I previously mentioned plus the Mets are not hitting left handed pitching and Maholm has pitched really well under the radar for most of the year. At the same time the Pirates have horrible offensive numbers against righties and Pelfrey has pitched well of late. The total is very volatile right now and is all over the board allowing us to get most of our wager at plus odds, but still providing for a 2x profit on a final score of 7. The majority of the bets are on the over 60/40 so we have some rlm and public fade action at play here as well. Big play to start the day. Let's do this! Good luck.

[ColdBeerHere]

Yeah, I kinda see it pick'em, slight lean Miami perhaps, just can't see Dallas losing by more than 8 though.

I was kind of thinking the same thing.....How about a teaser then with DAL + and over ?

Has anyone heard of an update on Dirk's finger ? Last I heard he said it shouldn't affect his shooting....

[nmodi]

Pirates/Mets still at 7.5 at betcris...

[Love The Action]

Pirates/Mets still at 7.5 at betcris...

In the last hour, the total has fluctuated between 7.5 and 7. I took action at both so I pay less juice overall. I like the under at either number. Good luck.

[nmodi]

GL with ya un under MLB and over in NBA lets cash it today

[GGALLERT]

On it!!!
Lets get it on in t minus 4 minutes...
A couple 2 hitters 1-0 final wouldnt suck

[Love The Action]

I was kind of thinking the same thing.....How about a teaser then with DAL + and over ?

Has anyone heard of an update on Dirk's finger ? Last I heard he said it shouldn't affect his shooting....

Im sure dirk is fine or it would be a much bigger story...its the championship so he can't let little things bother him. I wouldn't factor that particular injury
into capping this game too much...

[Love The Action]

GL with ya un under MLB and over in NBA lets cash it today

On it!!!
Lets get it on in t minus 4 minutes...
A couple 2 hitters 1-0 final wouldnt suck

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

And the pirates decide to suddenly hit against Pelfrey...unreal.

Lunch is over so I gotta get back to work anyway...hope we get lucky here and they don't score more than 2....

[GGALLERT]

Stupid 2-0 top 1...still hit his under....

[nmodi]

3-0 in 1st

[JR007]

Like to play unders in these ranges...squares bet over......if books are not afraid to hang low lines tells you something..........
LTA..THAT MCCUNE GUY...CAN YOU GIVE ME THE NAME OF HIS BOOK ???? THANKS.

[nmodi]

wow pirates is on fire top 2nd and 4-0