LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Full-Grown]

Unfortunately, this is true. We need 61 points in the fourth quarter. If this doesn't cash, I believe I underestimated the long layoff. The difference between this opening game and the opening games that cashed overs in earlier rounds, was the extended layoff. In the earlier rounds, there was maybe a 2-3 day layoff at most. In this round, Dallas was off 5 days and the Heat 4 days. I think instead of fresh legs, it led to more of a rusty shot. That was a miscalculation on my part and one I will always remember. It's always a learning process....

I think the zone defense leading to less free throws for Miami was huge and something I didn't think about as well. I was on the over for 1 and a half units myself. Hopefully we get OT. I feel like I am owed an OT too.

Also, I would hope you learn from this bet to never bet 10x on a first game of a series. I really think a 10x bet should only be made maybe a couple times a year. If you really like a play 5x is usually enough and is better bankroll management. I have learned that nothing is a lock in sportsbetting and you avoid big swings by never betting over 5x. Bankroll management is key to sportsbetting and poker. Just my thoughts LTA. Appreciate everything you do in here and nice day in baseball.

Now let's go OT!!!

[nmodi]

almost 43 pts in 4 mins well now i shuld root for OT as welll lol....

[Love The Action]

The over is lost...congrats under backers, good call.

[alamo]

The over is lost...congrats under backers, good call.

I traded out on this one. I recognised in time that both teams were killing the clock. The shot tracker on both teams is less than 5secs with the shot clock before they shoot.
Better luck next time LTA

[Love The Action]

Hopefully, the Mavs start raining three's and fouling like mf'ers....

[nmodi]

wellll gud job LTA on MLB lets go on 2nd gm lets get this 2nd one

[Love The Action]

I think the zone defense leading to less free throws for Miami was huge and something I didn't think about as well. I was on the over for 1 and a half units myself. Hopefully we get OT. I feel like I am owed an OT too.

Also, I would hope you learn from this bet to never bet 10x on a first game of a series. I really think a 10x bet should only be made maybe a couple times a year. If you really like a play 5x is usually enough and is better bankroll management. I have learned that nothing is a lock in sportsbetting and you avoid big swings by never betting over 5x. Bankroll management is key to sportsbetting and poker. Just my thoughts LTA. Appreciate everything you do in here and nice day in baseball.

Now let's go OT!!!

I understand BR management and pride myself on it. A 10x bet for me is only 5% of my current BR. I am up over 60x in the playoffs alone. I felt I had the edge in this game based on numerous factors, but simply underestimated the long layoff.

I appreciate the sentiment, but each bet I make is highly calculated. Remember, I am betting for myself here and for no one else. Because I am up so much on the playoffs alone, I am going to play aggressively when I think I have the edge. In addition, I feel as though I have a good read on this series. The 10x play was warranted when you add up all the factors. However, the biggest factor, the long layoff, proved to be victorious.

Perhaps if I were to make multiple 20x plays, your comments would be warranted. However, my largest bet of the year was a 15x winner on the Bulls/Hawks under and I only made that large of a wager once. Scared money don't make money, but you should only bet large when you think you have the +ev to do so. I felt I had the edge on this game. I was wrong. It's not the first time and won't be the last. However, I will always end up + units...

I will be interested in seeing the opening total for game 2. I predict we seen an opener at 186. You guys may not like my game 2 lean. Will these two teams really shoot a combined 38% again? I doubt it.

Need to go cool down after this game...very frustrating loss. My apologies to anyone who tailed.

[vincanity15]

No worries we will get the next one gl

[nmodi]

hmm...LTA u dont have to be sorry...its ur opnion...u dont madr us to force to tail u....why do I forget when u make us money...u rock....lets cash 2 gm

[petermans23]

Hi LTA!

You are the best.

I tailed you with 10x and lost huge last night but there is no need for you to apologies. I am responsible for my own bets so just better luck next time.

Are you planning to go 20x on the next game for tomorrow night? And always on under for second games, right?

Best of luck!

[ColdBeerHere]

No big deal LTA, get em' next time. that's why we practice br management

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/31/11

0 - 1 = -12x

In this thread:

20 - 16 = +26.5x

(Series 0 - 1 = -5x)

Both teams shoot an abnormally low shooting percentage below 38%, yet we still only miss the over by 11 points. It was clear, these two teams were rusty and shooting bricks. With a long layoff, NBA teams react one of two ways: (1) they play a faster pace and tempo or (2) they are rusty, miss shots and revert to an off-rhythm half-court offense. In this game, we suffered through the latter. Based on the poor shooting from both teams, the line will be set around 186. Perhaps we might even see 185 after some more public money jumps on the under. However, I read an article that said most of the sharp money was on the over in this game 1. Therefore, if there was value in the over in game one at 186, wouldn't there be the same value there in game 2 with the same number or lower? As you know, I like to play where the value lies. I will be interested to see the adjustment that was made.

[ColdBeerHere]

I agree they sure were rusty, these two teams can shoot way better....

It will be interesting to see where they make the line....

If it is significantly under today's line, are you going to pounce right away ?

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/31/11

Pirates ML (+ 100) 1x (locked) WINNER
Pirates/Mets under (7.5) 1x (locked) WINNER
TB ml (+120) 1x (locked) WINNER
Rangers/TB under (8) 0.50x (locked) LOSS
Nationals ml (+155) 0.60x (locked) WINNER
Brewers/Reds over (9) 0.50x (locked) PUSH
Marlins/AZ over (8.5) 2x (-115) (locked) LOSS
Oakland ML (-125) 1x (Locked) LOSS
Orioles/Marines under (6.5) (+105) 2.5x (Locked) WINNER

MLB 5/31/11 recap:

5 - 3 - 1 = +2.8x

In this thread:

84 - 81 = +9.18x

Burned by Oakland and the Diamondbacks tonight. Arizona left multiple runners on base as FL beats AZ 5-2, leaving us two runs short of a cashing ticket. Anderson just got shelled for Oakland. However, at least we cash our big 2.5x play on the under in Orioles/Mariners. With our early wins on the Pirates, Pirates under, Washington and TB, we again cash a nice night in MLB for back to back winning nights of 2.5x or more. We will keep this streak going with a possible early play in a few minutes before bed.

[csmkr18]

I don't think we will see more than 1 point adjustment for game 2

[ColdBeerHere]

Nice mlb card today...good job

[Love The Action]

I don't think we will see more than 1 point adjustment for game 2

It opened at 186 just as I predicted...

[ColdBeerHere]

sounds good to me, as soon as 5dimes is up and running i'll take the over.....

they have to shoot better next game....

Wait, you don't think with the score in game 1 that everyone will be betting under which should move the line down ?

[suicidekings]

The over is lost...congrats under backers, good call.

Even with that horrible start to the game, the final score only fell 10 points short. Even a pessimistic estimate wouldn't have predicted that abysmal shooting performance, so I can't feel too bad about the game... On to the next one...

[Goat Milk]

The adjustments are simple. Dallas came out as a jump shooting team tonight and thats not gonna work against the Heat. They shot poorly but they still hit 3s that they will not hit in the second game. Dallas will try and be more aggressive and establish a presence in the paint. The Heat played a slow tempo game as I expected.

Miami will only get out and run in this series when they can. They will not force the issue because they are confident with their half court sets against a pretty slow-footed Dallas defense comparatively. Dallas needs to push the ball in this game and dominate the paint and they will be fine. Those are the main adjustments so you can expect a higher scoring game because Dallas will win 0 games this finals if they don't score at least 93+ points. The over might be a good play next game.


To answer SK,

The total should have went under by a long shot. Miami lit it up in the 4th quarter and had lots of extra posessions of offensive rebounds. So I wouldn't really look at it as the over barely lost.

[funnyman]

I like the over in next game.Both teams can't shoot that poorly again, can they?

[bureK]

They will score 93+ but at home.

[Love The Action]

Even with that horrible start to the game, the final score only fell 10 points short. Even a pessimistic estimate wouldn't have predicted that abysmal shooting performance, so I can't feel too bad about the game... On to the next one...

Agreed. I have to trust my original thoughts on this one and throw out game one as inapplicable because of the rust caused by the long layoff. I had this first game at 190 and still feel that is a fair assessment. The poor shooting percentage in the 1q was not due to defense...both teams were simply playing tentative and missed wide open looks. I do not think those same shots are missed in game 2.

The total opened up at 186 just as I predicted. I think we may see an early drop to 185.5 as more public money will now go on the under in game 2 and that will give us a ton of value on the over. I had originally hoped to roll with game one over and game two under. However, it looks like we will get stuck playing the opposite scenario. Although I am an under player at heart, I just think we have too much value on the over in game two at any number at 186.5 or below. Let's just hope the record breaking futility with respect to scoring in the first quarter does not repeat itself.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/1/11

Padres/Braves under (7) (+105) 2x (Locked)
Marlins/Diamondbacks over (9) 2x (Locked)
Astros ML (+125) 0.50x (Locked)

I locked these three plays in last night before bed and am not waiting for line movement to factor in with these plays. I think the eventual line moves will suck all the value out of these plays as the day progresses and don't want to take that chance.

The Padres/Braves under is based on Hanson having a solid game after only going 4 2/3 innings in his last outting against Cincinnati. Despite that short performance, he only gave up 2 runs. Over the season so far, Hanson has been lights-out. He has given up over 3 runs only once when he gave up 4 runs to the Angels. Other than that, he has limited opponents to 3 runs or under in every start. On the other side, Clayton Richard has pitched relatively well for a fifth starter. Other than two bad outtings against Milwaukee and Houston, Clayton also has limited opponents to 3 runs or under in all of his starts. With the weak lineup of the Padres going against Hanson and the injury depleted lineup of the Braves facing Richard, I like both pitchers to keep it under 3 runs today. In addition, the Braves have really struggled against left handed pitchers all year. Therefore, I think this game comes down to bullpens and I am trusting that both bullpens throw relatively well today. I expect a 3-2 or 4-2 type game.

The Marlins/Diamondbacks game provides the opposite. Let's face it, Vazquez is a gas can. I mistakenly bet a few unders when Vazquez pitched earlier in the year. Needless to say, we lost those plays and will not be fooled by Vazquez again. Arizona stranded at least 5 runners in scoring position yesterday to screw our over play. Nevertheless, despite Kennedy and Sanchez starting, they still scored 7 runs. With Vazquez and Hudson pitching, I think we see the over finally hit today. Although Hudson has pitched relatively well this year, he has been hit or miss and has a tendency to give up 3+ runs in one game. Because I think Vazquez will get shelled, I think we see Florida score enough to push this game over the large posted total of 9. I hate betting overs at 9, but we'll give it a shot today based on the liklihood that Arizona jumps all over Vazquez.

Finally, although I generally like to play teams to avoid the sweep, especially at home, I just can't believe the Cubs, with Doug Davis starting are favored -142 over the Astros with Myers pitching. I will take the +125 against a Cubs team riddled with injury and seemingly going downhill right now. Quade does not have much to work with at the moment has his high priced so-called stars such as Soriano or Arod are either hurt or not producing. Although Castro and Barney have played well as youngsters, they do not have the offensive firepower at the moment to get into a slug fest at Wrigley. Consequently, they currently have no home field advantage. Because their pitching is pathetic - both starters and relievers - the Cubs need to outhit opponents and this especially rings true at Wrigely. Without the ability to do this, I expect the losses to start piling up. Therefore, I'm going to roll with the Stros at +125 with Myers pitching against Doug Davis.

I will have more MLB plays to come. Good luck on all your plays today.

[flush99]

All locked? Good luck today
(nice job)

[IceSlipper]

you dont force anyone to tail you LTA! ignore the haters, lets just rip up the rest of the series!

[Love The Action]

NBA 6/2/11

Dallas/Miami over (186) 5x (locked)

Will give you my thoughts later, but I don't think the total will go below 186 and I won't have time to watch the lines so I'm locking it in now at a number I like.

MLB 6/1/11

Angels/Royals over (9.5) 1x (locked)

Hit parade today in kc...not much time for analysis or monitoring line movement. Will lock plays in early and already have four mlb plays. Good luck.

[ColdBeerHere]

LOL @ Doug Davis....Myers is nothing to whoop it up about either though....That over 9.5 (-105) looks pretty tasty...both clubs avg hitting...but below avg bull pens...wind blowing out to right at 13 mph....Think I'm takin' the over....

For the NBA game think I am going to sit still and see if it drops...I agree though if you don't have time 186 is not a bad #

[Full-Grown]

I understand BR management and pride myself on it. A 10x bet for me is only 5% of my current BR. I am up over 60x in the playoffs alone. I felt I had the edge in this game based on numerous factors, but simply underestimated the long layoff. I appreciate the sentiment, but each bet I make is highly calculated. Remember, I am betting for myself here and for no one else. Because I am up so much on the playoffs alone, I am going to play aggressively when I think I have the edge. In addition, I feel as though I have a good read on this series. The 10x play was warranted when you add up all the factors. However, the biggest factor, the long layoff, proved to be victorious. Perhaps if I were to make multiple 20x plays, your comments would be warranted. However, my largest bet of the year was a 15x winner on the Bulls/Hawks under and I only made that large of a wager once. Scared money don't make money, but you should only bet large when you think you have the +ev to do so. I felt I had the edge on this game. I was wrong. It's not the first time and won't be the last. However, I will always end up + units... I will be interested in seeing the opening total for game 2. I predict we seen an opener at 186. You guys may not like my game 2 lean. Will these two teams really shoot a combined 38% again? I doubt it. Need to go cool down after this game...very frustrating loss. My apologies to anyone who tailed.

All good man. Wasn't hating or anything. I was actually thinking of 10x as 10%. I'm glad you didn't bet 10 percent and only 5. Only reason why I said something about learning was because you mentioned something about every day is a learning process. And maybe my comments about br management could have helped others who don't know as much as you. Anyways on to the next one. And like I said I appreciate your thoughts and insight. Peace and good luck today.

[Love The Action]

All good man. Wasn't hating or anything. I was actually thinking of 10x as 10%. I'm glad you didn't bet 10 percent and only 5. Only reason why I said something about learning was because you mentioned something about every day is a learning process. And maybe my comments about br management could have helped others who don't know as much as you. Anyways on to the next one. And like I said I appreciate your thoughts and insight. Peace and good luck today.

Its all good...I know you meant well. That was just some frustration on my part. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/1/11

Rangers/TB under (7.5) (-115) (locked)
Nationals ML (+ 135) 0.50x (locked)


Good luck!

[suicidekings]

To answer SK,

The total should have went under by a long shot. Miami lit it up in the 4th quarter and had lots of extra posessions of offensive rebounds. So I wouldn't really look at it as the over barely lost.

It was on pace for 181 at the half and the 1Q was the lowest scoring quarter. Saying the Heat played better in the 4Q isn't super meaningful when both teams were shooting under 30% for the first 15 minutes of the game and it still drifted close.

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/1/11

Orioles/Mariners under (6.5) 1x (locked)

I will probably add a unit before game time but I wanted to at least get one unit locked in before the line dropped any further. Good luck.

[nmodi]

dal mia gm2 mv to 187 ....yes we got it

[Love The Action]

MLB 6/1/11

Orioles/Mariners under (6.5) 1x (locked)

I will probably add a unit before game time but I wanted to at least get one unit locked in before the line dropped any further. Good luck.

Adding 1x for total of 2x