Got robbed...game should be in extra innings tied 2-2. Oh well...once these breaks start going our way, we are going to have one of those epic 8-0 days.
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Sort of. The BR I am currently working with started at 100x in October when I got the go-ahead from my wife to try sports investing for real. My unit size is nothing crazy like SJ with his $1K units, as I am pretty much a $100 per unit guy (although that will go up or down depending on the overall size of my BR). I have always bet on sports and been pretty successful, but it was never an every-day thing where I put a ton of work into it like I do now. I used to make maybe 5-15 wagers per week and now I make about 30 - 50 wagers per week during the regular season. Including the playoffs, I now have a BR of over 220x from the NBA, including the original 100x. However, about half of that 120x profit so far has come from cashing some big plays in the playoffs. If we didn't get screwed on two big 10x under overtime losers in the playoffs, we would be up at least another 20x.
I had about 60x in profit from the NBA regular season, mainly on totals. I really don't play too many sides in the NBA.
My BR is not limited to one sport. The current 220x that I'm working with is used for both NBA and MLB. From MLB, I'm up about another 20x on the season so far, however, I'm about to lose 5x for tonight, which will knock that down to 15x. All in all, I'm currently working with a BR of about 235x after today's debacle.
Because I'm up in units pretty comfortably from my start in October, I have been playing more aggressive of late. As you know, scared money don't make money and you should be aggressive when you're up and pull back when you are cold.
So far, my biggest play of the year was a 15x winner on the under in game 2 of the Hawks/Bulls series. I may have another 15x play this series. Plus, I really like my play on the over in game 1 of Mavs/Heat for 10x. Once I see the refs on game day, I may bump that up a couple units. Anyway, I hope that answered your questions. Good luck.Comment -
lost 3x today lets get it back tomorrow
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MLB 5/29/11 Recap
4 - 8 = -5.7x
In this thread:
74 - 76 = -0.34
Our memorial day extravaganza fizzled out and really disappointed. Once again we lose a bunch of close one run games whether on the total or side. The Orioles ML turned out to be a bad call as they got smoked, but we easily cashed our play on the over in that one. The Dodgers and Kershaw proved us right in backing them, but Nolasco got raped (as KM said) and gave up 8 so we lose the under by 1.5 runs. The big line movement plays on the Rockies and Rockies over turned to crap, as the Rockies rally in the ninth just couldn't get them over the top and they lose 4-3. The Astros were the typical Astros as their bullpen blows another game and we lose 4-2. We came close to cashing three straight unders in the Padres/Nats series, but they scored some late runs to push that one over by one run at a final score of 5-4 in favor of the Padres. Then tonight, we had two big plays which just cancelled each other out with an easy 5x cash on the under in Boston/Detroit, but a 5x loser on the over in the Reds/Braves game. Lucky we didn't have to pay any juice in that one.
All in all, we have had a horrible week in MLB as we lost more than 10x and killed our winning percentage (we were 54-47 and +10.4x to start the week). This was due primarily to Tuesday and today, where we lost about 5x each. Needless to say, if you have been following, you know that we have lost 9 extra inning games and a bunch of totals by the hook this week. Once those breaks start to go our way, we will break out in a big way. We are entering June, which means I historically start making more big MLB plays of 3x-8x. Once late July hits, is when our 10x MLB plays will start coming out. I like to wait for the playoff races to make some big totals plays. Overall, I remain +14.8x on the MLB season as a whole (most plays documented in previous threads) and expect to get back up to the +20x threshold pretty soon. I have a 100x profit goal for MLB by the end of the World Series and we remain on pace to reach that goal.
Anyway, I am going to be putting some plays in tonight before bed for tomorrow's MLB card. I started looking at tomorrow's card because I will be buys tomorrow and I expect more crazy line movement like today and I want to get as much value as possible. We will probably have some more multiple unit plays for tomorrow. Let's hope tomorrow is the day we break out of this MLB funk with a nice 8-0 day or thereabouts. Good luck!
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I'm going to be locking in some MLB plays tonight before bed so I can get as much value as possible. We got burned today by not locking in more plays last night. I think in general, when I have time, I am going to be locking more MLB plays in as early as possible. This will be possible now that I don't have as many NBA games to cap. I am expecting a big turnaround this week and it all starts Monday!
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Once the NBA playoffs are over, I'm going to move all my MLB plays over to the baseball forum in a new thread. I may actually end up doing that pretty soon. I would like to get some more MLB talk going in here with the NBA killing all of their momentum with all this time off in between games.Comment -
Getting back to the NBA for a minute, note that the 187 over is getting juiced pretty heavy at MBK and at -107 at Pinny. Could a move to 187.5 be coming by Tuesday morning? I would see we movement up to 187.5 at some point on Tuesday and then it will settle back down to 187 before tip. I would still take the over at 187 for those that are interested. Just as a reminder, I have already locked in my play on the over at 186 for 10x. GL.Comment -
sounds good. jus wanted to get a rough feeling of your brm so i can follow the same. Because I thought 10x plays were alot for a 100 unit bankroll when some professional's say 2-3% of your br per play is the way to go.But whatever works and obviously your doing great. keep up the good work as i pretty much follow plays based on line movements and your posts...Comment -
Month of May:
Not including the 31st:
We have profited 18 out of the 29 days in May so far. Total profit for the month so far in both NBA and MLB is +33.3x.
Yesterday and today are the first back-to-back unprofitable days since May 2nd and 3rd of this month. That's the type of consistent profit that you will never see out of any tout and with better analysis than most.
Let's end this month with a huge day tomorrow and get our monthly profit for May over 35x! Good luck!
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MLB 5/30/11
Brewers/Milwaukee over (9) (-105) 2x (Locked)
Narveson v. Wood in this matchup. Both pitchers are lefties and the Reds have KILLED left handed pitching this year hitting over .300 against left handers. In addition, earlier this year, Narveson gave up 7 earned runs to the Reds, and even though I will sometimes take pitchers to bounce back in such a spot, in this case I really like the over because Wood is a gas can so far. In 11 starts, the over has hit in 7 of them. So far, overall action is split with a slight lean to the under. That is probably because Narveson has been a pretty solid under bet all year long. However, when facing the Reds lineup that is deadly to the lefties, I think we see him give up at least 4 tomorrow. With the Reds bullpen being tired having played so many games recently, including that marathon 18 inning game against the Phillies, I just think we see a ton of runs tomorrow. This line opened up at 8.5 and quickly jumped to 9 with the over currently being juiced at some outlets (i.e. Pinny) more than the under (despite the action lean mentioned above). I'm going to roll with the over here. Good luck.Comment -
going to be gone for the day family stuff....prolly just going to take the day off since I wont be able to get most of your bets in but BOL todayComment -
Bad day, so good luck todayComment -
U lost because I tailed you
GL today tough
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Twins/Tigers over (8.5) (-115) 2x (Locked)
Blackburn v. Penny will battle today and over 70% of all bets say the under will cash. I disagree. Both teams have had a rash of overs recently as before yesterday's double-header under, they cashed three in a row. On the other side, Minny has hit 2 out of 3 in favor of the over. The head-to-head trends also favor the over here. Even though Blackburn is killing it in his last three games with an ERA under 2 and a WHIP under 1, two of those three games went over. Penny favors the over in 5 of his 9 starts. This play is also supported by the line movement as it opened at 8 and was bought up to 8.5 with the over currently being juiced as high as -120 at Pinny, all the while over 70% of all bets have come in on the under. Smart money is with the over today and that's where our stake is as well. Good luck.Comment -
Damn...13 run total in the Cubs game. The Cubbies have some tub of goo pitching today. A late-30's Rodrigo Lopez. I lean Houston.Comment -
Hi LTA for NBA gm1 I m getting 187...Shuld I buy a point and get over 186 or 187 is also gud to lock?Comment -
Astros ML (+125) 0.50x (Locked)
I'll take my chances here with the Astros and Aneury Rodriguez against Lopez and the Cubs. Lopez hasn't pitched in the majors since 2010 and he's lifetime ERA in the high 4's. Rodriguez's last two starts against the Dodgers and Blue Jays have been really good only giving up one and two runs respectively. The total is set at 13, so clearly oddsmakers favor a lot of runs here and I think Rodriguez will have a better chance of keeping the ball in the park than Lopez. Plus, this is a good public fade opportunity with over 75% of all bets favoring the Cubs at the moment for reasons I do not know. We'll roll with the Astros in this spot. Good luck.Comment -
I have it capped at 190, so I think you are good-to-go at 187. I still may add units and if I do, I would be willing to add at 187. I would never buy a whole point on a total, whether in playoffs or not. I do, however, solely on big playoff plays, think that buying the hook and no more than the hook is a smart move because of how sharp these lines are at the moment. Good luck.Comment -
Following you on Reds-Brewers over and Hou ML
A couple add ons to look at
Tex/Tampa OVER
SD ML
KC ML
Toronto ML
AZ/FLA UNDERComment -
I lean under in Philly/Nats and Padres/Braves, but the line movement has scared me off. I may still play the Padres/Braves, but the Halladay/Hernandez matchup may go over because Phillies lineup is rested and ready to roll (many regulars were rested yesterday). Hernandez has only given up more than 3 runs three times this whole season, but one of those times was against the Phillies when he gave up 4. I still can't get off the Padres/Braves under based on the Padres under tendencies and the Braves lineup containing so many reserves. Harang has pitched well for the most part.Comment -
Cardinals/Giants over (7.5) (-115) 0.50x (Locked)
Every so often I will make a play strictly on line movement. This is one of those plays. Both Bumgarner and McCellan have pitched well, both for the season and recently. However, the public has been pounding the undeer and this line just went from 7.5 and the under being juiced to 8 at some outlets with the over being juiced. At Pinny, it went from under -115 to over -120. That's a pretty big move to me which shows some major money just came in on the over and I'll take a small half-unit shot here. With over 70% of the public still on the under, I like the public fade effect here as well. The Cards offense can explode at anytime and with some nice weather in St. Lous today, we could see a 5-3 type of game. Good luck.Comment -
this guy is down at least 5 grand....why do you think he posts so much and tries to get you guys to like him...Comment -
Dude...I post my records after every day. I am up over 30x in NBA in this thread alone. In MLB, I was up over 10x at the start of the week and am currently at -0.34x in this thread. Just check in every day and you will see the updated record. You cannot spread your lies in this thread and think people will believe you.
You are pathetic and looking to start trouble. I don't know why you have decided to attack me with lies and I don't really care. Everyone that comes in here sees my updated record on a daily basis and knows the truth. You are a joke and have no reason to attack me other than jealousy. Plus, the reason I post is so that I have a diary of why I take certain plays and a way to track my record. I could care less what you or anyone else in this fantasy SBR world thinks of me. Why don't you start a thread and keep a track of your records? It's quite helpful to your capping and I highly recommend it.
You are the first troll to enter this thread - congratulations loser! If you have nothing positive to add, please stay out of my thread with your lies and go post your stupid "lock" threads. You have no credibility and everyone knows you are joke. However, if you want to add something positive and provide your thoughts on certain plays, by all means go for it. I encourage discourse about plays whether in support of or against my plays. That is how we learn from each other and help each other beat the books. After all, that is the goal isn't it? Good luck to you sir.Comment -
Padres ML (+165) 1x (Locked)
I'm taking a shot here with Harang against Hudson coming off the DL. The public is all over the Braves, but they played last night and could be a bit tired. The Padres had a short flight to Atlanta and should be rested after their early game yesterday. I like the odds here with Harang having pitched well recently and the team having won 7 of his 10 starts so far. They seem to swing the bats well when he starts. Good luck.Comment -
txs lta with ya on over...let us know if u add more unitComment -
Wow, all the books came off of 7.5 and went up 8 in the SF/Cards total. I already locked in my play on the over for 0.50x. Big money coming in on that over...Comment -
lol @ trolls.....LTA, keep up the good work, and write ups....Always like seeing what your take is whether it's MLB or NBA....
I'm tailin' ya on game 1 over.....And I also agree on the MIN/DET over today...Let's get em' !Comment -
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