LTA, what do you think about under 91.5 in the 1st half? Normally I'm very much against going under low first half totals but I feel like all signs are pointing to an ugly first half. Feel free to call me crazy, it might end up helping me out. Thanks, best of luck with the picks tonight.
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Tough call...probably will be between 89 and 95 for 1h. I would personally stick with the game under, but I don't want to talk you out of a winning play. Bol whatever you choose.Comment -
Mlb
Florida ml (-110) 1x (locked)
Florida/phil under (9) 1x (locked)
Hou/cincy under (8.5) 1x (locked)
Lad/pit under (7.5) 1x (locked)
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what do u think mets/rockies over 9?Comment -
thanks!!!! GLComment -
i was thinking over in the memphis game, but then i saw the refs favor the under fairly heavily - any thoughts about that game?Comment -
Tough game to call. On one hand, you think both teams will play better on offense. On the other hand, I expect full defensive effort with a moderate pace. As you mention, refs favor the under. In addition, the line movement under just a tad. Therefore, there are a lot if factors that say under.
To me, it comes down to shooting percentage. If you think they will shoot 46% or better, take the over. Otherwise, I would play the under. Bol....Comment -
Anyone like okc moneyline or spread?Comment -
One of the most frustrating losses all year. What a horrible shot by pierce to end regulation. Wtf was he thinking...should have cashed that under easy. Just tough luck lately, between overtime losers and record three point shooting, I just can't stand it. Unreal...
Going to stay pissed about this one for another half hour and then force myself to look at tomorrows games. This just really pisses me off...Comment -
If you've ever actually done this, you should never place another bet
Seriously, though, all you need to do is come up with a capping process that you are comfortable with and that works. Then, just tweak and adjust as needed, but keep the same overall process. You need to stay consistent and trust that what you are doing is right. Once you have some long term success, you can believe in yourself to ride out the losing streaks. Good luck bud...Comment -
Well the self fading process is also a system of play. We know that we have a good runner on some week and on some week, we can't even hit nothing at all. It is important that we catches the losing streak early and readjust like how a coach calls a time out when his team is on an x-o run.If you've ever actually done this, you should never place another bet
Seriously, though, all you need to do is come up with a capping process that you are comfortable with and that works. Then, just tweak and adjust as needed, but keep the same overall process. You need to stay consistent and trust that what you are doing is right. Once you have some long term success, you can believe in yourself to ride out the losing streaks. Good luck bud...
Right now, I'm fading material and whatever I feel at first glance, I bet the other way. If this model does not work for me, I'll switch it off and play the fade of the fade. LOLComment -
It's just your mind playing tricks on you...stop overthinking. Pick 10 things (or however many you like) as overall factors for making a play. Once your criteria for a play is met, just take that side. Don't even get involved in all that fading yourself BS or you will only lose more. You need to just believe in yourself, your systems and your history of success. If you don't have a history of success, take it slow, bet small and build up over time. That's the way to long term success. If you get involved with fading yourself BS, you will only be a long time loser and will never succeed.
I would suggest you read some books on sports investing. I highly recommend both books written by Bob McCune. Sports investing is like any other profession. You need to learn as much as possible to really be successful and you need to constantly keep learning. Think about it this way, a lawyer or doctor need to go to school before going professional. Well, as sports investors, you need to research all the different techniques, theories and processes for success.
I wish you luck, but really urge you to stop fading yourself. You will only regret once you start picking winners again but you decide to go the other way.Comment -
This was from yesterday.
NBA
0-2 = - 14.5
In this thread
6 - 7 = +1.2x
MLB
3 - 3 = - .3x
In this thread
21 - 13 = + 8.6x
A tough Sunday, but we still were profitable on the week overall between NBA and MLB. I can't complain about that at the end of the day, however, if we didn't end up betting against the all time best 3 point shooting in the playoffs, and bet the bulls under on a day when Atlanta decided to play smart, we would have killed. We gave back 14 units of profit on Sunday that just killed what should have been a highly successful week.Comment -
NBA 5/9/11
0 - 2 = -5x
In this thread
6 - 9 = - 2.7x
A very tough loss in OT in the Heat/Celts under. The Celtics had 15 seconds left to take a great shot to end the game. Instead, Pierce lets the clock run down to zero and forces up a horrible shot. That was one of the worst endings to a playoff game I have witnessed.
Nevertheless, despite how pissed I remain about that game, we move on. I really like the Bulls under tomorrow. Please refer to my game 2 analysis for this one. I think we will have a big play, or at least 6-7x on the Bulls under if we get decent ref assignments. Maybe more... BOL...Comment -
Now your're talking..just keep a positive outlook and always believe your play will win right up until the final seconds of the game. A large part of sports investing, and life in general, is staying positive. If you don't have confidence and positive thoughts about your plays, you will definitely lose long term. It's the same with life, if you constantly take a negative outlook, all you will get is negative results. Positive thinking my man, that's where success is born.
Look at me. I had a tough Sunday and Monday (0 -4 in the NBA). However, I have no doubt that I will end this week profitable and end the playoffs and overall NBA season very profitable. You just have to believe in yourself and that what you are doing is right. I know how I have had long term success and I know my techniques work long term. Consequently, I have no doubts I will end up making money. Hang in there...once you have confidence in your capping process, you will be unstoppable. Good luck...Comment -
MLB 5/9/11
2 - 2 = -.2x
In this thread
23 - 15 = +8.4x
Freeking Javier Vazques screwed me again. I don't know why I bet on that gascan. Second time this year he has blown an under play for me. Today, he blew the ML and total play in the florida/phil game. We would have swept the MLb card if not for Vazquez. Oh well, time for breakout day tomorrow. Good luck!Comment -
We're still up over 30 units in the playoffs alone (all documented in previous threads). However, all of that is from the first round. I started this thread for the second round and we have been up and down. Nevertheless, I predict we have a great day tomorrow! I am really excited about this potential bulls total play...Comment -
Better today, no problemComment -
I can't believe both unders lost yesterday because of overtime
I feel like a winner just by not playing the OKC/Mem total.
I'm feeling really good about today, though. I really like the Bulls under today. The question is how much?Comment -
These writeups from game 2 of the Bulls/Hawks series, also apply to this Game 5. I believe we should have a big defensive adjustment from the Bulls, just like they have always done throughout the year. Once I check the ref assignments, I will lock in my play on the under. Good luck.Comment -
Refs are out -- S. Javie, B. Kennedy, and T. WashingtonComment -
Great write-up. Going with you on the under.Comment -
Thanks.
Javie and washington usually keep the whistle out of their mouths. Kennedy can go either way but at least he is 2-4 in favor of the under in games set below 184. Obviously not a huge sample size but better than a lean for the over.
My only concern about this game is the abnormally fast pace of game 4. My analysis above is predicated on fg attempts in the 150's not 160 + like last gme. My concern is that the hawks play faster now with teague running the show as opposed to heinrich. Regardless, however, I think tonights gme is about the bulls defensive adjustments and their ability to suffocate the hawks offense from the start.
When the hawks play smith at the 3, I expect the bulls to adjust with gibson or tgomas. I will be interested to see thibs adjustments. Lets keep an eye on the line. Perhaps we can get another half point before locking it in. Good luck tonight.Comment -
im on the underComment -
NBA 5/10/11
Bulls/Hawks under (181) 10x (locked)
Writeup and reasoning above. I think bulls defensive adjustments will be the difference. Expect more of Kurt Thomas and Taj Gibson to slow down Smith. The Bulls have always tended to play to the under after allowing 100 pts or more in a loss. I also expect the pace of this game to be a bit slower than game 4 and we should see less fouls called as well with Javie and Washington as the refs. Therefore, as long as the game doesn't go into overtime, I fully expect to cash this big play on the under. Good luck!Comment -
the pace of game 4 wasn't much different than games 1 or 2. it's more just that game 3 was really slow. 177, 179, 160, 181 in the four games so far. i agree with you that i like the under in this one. last night was tough with two overs bc of overtime. hopefully pace stays slow and shooting is bad tonightComment -
It was really the pace of the 4th q that surprised me more than anything else. Usually, the bulls control the pace in the fourth, but teague took it to them aggressively and the hawks pushed the pace en route to outscoring the bulls 33-19. I venture to say there were very few fourth q's this year that the bulls allowed 33 and were outscored by more than 10. I expect a better finishing effort tonight.
Good luck tonight...I'm feeling good and looking forward to this game. Hopefully, we don't have to sweat it out lol...Comment -
Pinny has started to juice the under....hopefully we see a dip soon. Doesn't really matter lately, however, as we have been beating every closer but the public has been getting lucky with these overs anyway. That trend stops today!Comment -
yo lta, i'm on the under for a pretty big chunk and am also riding with hawks +8.5 and bulls winning the next two games. there's a slim window that bulls win by 8 or less or that bet pretty much cancels out assuming bulls actually do win the next two games. what's your thoughts man?Comment
Big day today!
