LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[NBA_Brosuf]

I can't believe this under's not going to hit.

I see adjustments in this game. Hard defense in the paint which then pushes for more free throws.

It is a lose lose situation actually. If you let Zack score in the paint, no free throw needed, they will still get their points. IF you foul Zack hard in the paint, he shoots and they will still get their points.

I need to see the stats in game 2 for how much points, including free throws since those are points too are made in the paint. Compare and contrast will give you a projection to the game in Memphis. I'm also looking at Durant and Westbrook, both in their mid 20's and we know that they are able to produce a 30 or more game each and yet, team totals still in the 100+.

Scare to bet the under even if Vegas set their limits at 205.

[No coincidences]

I see adjustments in this game. Hard defense in the paint which then pushes for more free throws.

It is a lose lose situation actually. If you let Zack score in the paint, no free throw needed, they will still get their points. IF you foul Zack hard in the paint, he shoots and they will still get their points.

I need to see the stats in game 2 for how much points, including free throws since those are points too are made in the paint. Compare and contrast will give you a projection to the game in Memphis. I'm also looking at Durant and Westbrook, both in their mid 20's and we know that they are able to produce a 30 or more game each and yet, team totals still in the 100+.

Scare to bet the under even if Vegas set their limits at 205.

Wonder why the total was set where it was, given the history between these two teams....

[NBA_Brosuf]

Wonder why the total was set where it was, given the history between these two teams....

Perhaps it is the game 2 effect theory. Like game 1, what a bunch of over scoring by both teams. So the obvious thing to say is that hell no, they wouldn't get another 100+ points and 50+ points in the paint by memphis so get real and come down to earth. Everybody on the under.

Little do people know, nothing much changes. The points get transferred from one guy to the next to make it another ugly 100+ games by these two young bucks, high flying, fast running teams. Zack be like. If I can't earn my in the paint points the legit way, I'll muscle my way through the paint and draw the foul.

The game tonight shows me an advantage side for the next game. Keep on trucking No coin. Good to talk about it though.

[Love The Action]

Wonder why the total was set where it was, given the history between these two teams....

Just woke up....what the hell happened in that fourth quarter LOL? 70 pts? They scored 45, 53 & 46 points in the 1st, 2nd & 3rd quarters, but 70 in the fourth quarter. Was that all from fouls?

It seems smart money and the oddsmakers have gotten killed these last couple days and the public has rolled.

I can't say I'm not disappointed, however, we can't change what we are doing based on these aberrations. When you are consistently beating closers as I have been doing, that means you are on the side that has value and should win more often than not. I profited all season, including a great first round, using my same criteria for making a pick. Therefore, I'm not going to change what I'm doing now based on four games in two days.

We're down 25 units over the last two days, but we're still up 13 units from the first round alone so I don't feel so
bad playing with house money. After all, I expect to hit the big bulls under play tonight and the lakers under and, assuming we do, we will get these units right back. Unfortunately, I hate trying to work my way back up rather than continuing to build upon profit.

Make no mistake, I am disappointed, but my confidence never wavers that we are making plays that are + ev and should hit more often than not. Good luck tonight.

[Love The Action]

Adding 2x (197.5) for a total of 7x on the Under OKC/Mem LOSS (Locked)

Wow, the refs just killed today's plays. They ended up taking 67 free throws in the Mem/Okc game and 57 free throws in the Heat game. In the playoffs, you should not see more than 50 free throw attempts as the refs usually let the teams play more physical and let the flow of the game take over (take a look at the first round free throw attempt numbers). I really hate when the refs have such a big impact on the final score.

NBA 5/2/11
0-2 - 18.7x

In this thread
1-5 -27.5x

Ouch...last two days hurt. But, that's the last time we'll talk about it. Onto tonight's game and the big bulls play. Hopefully, we get favorable ref assignments. I hate making big plays without waiting for the ref assignments. However, I didn't want to lose out on the value of the 180 number. Nevertheless, you can see, based on these last four games, how important it is to get refs that favor the under when that is your play. Hopefully we see our boy Rodney on this Bulls game!

[skaterplayer808]

seriously got buried in that 4th quarter. i can't believe a 70 point quarter......

[migz]

MEM/OKC under was brutal. Will you still be on the under next game? Love the confidence LTA. Once the ref assignments released, will you add more units on CHI/ATL play?

[Love The Action]

So far I am seeing 90%+ and 80%+ of all bets on the over in the Bulls/Hawks and Dal/LAL games. Can the public really win four days in a row on these overs?

We have been on the same side as big/sharp money; can we all be wrong four days in a row and the public right four days in a row? I guess anything can happen, but the odds are against it. I love my position on this Bulls game. EVERYONE being on the over is really encouraging.

[Love The Action]

MEM/OKC under was brutal. Will you still be on the under next game? Love the confidence LTA. Once the ref assignments released, will you add more units on CHI/ATL play?

I already have 15 units on that game, which is my biggest play of the season. With that said, if I get three refs that generally favor the under, an additional couple of units is possible.

I know some will say I am chasing and that's ok. However, I feel you need to be aggressive in the playoffs and I would be going big on this game whether we won last night or not. It's all about having enough angles that add up to a play that is +ev. I haven't seen a stronger game yet, other than the Lakers/NO game under where we cashed 12.5 units. I have a great feeling that we hit this under in the Bulls game. Good luck!!

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/3/11
2-1 +.9x


In this thread
8-3-1 + 3.75x

Not too bad of an MLB card tonight...let's get some of this NBA money back on the bases!

[chevy6]

Drose said he will be more aggressive tonight= more calls..kinda weary...eh no more lossessss lol

[Love The Action]

Drose said he will be more aggressive tonight= more calls..kinda weary...eh no more lossessss lol

Agreed lol... a final score of 95-84 would allow for rose's aggressiveness and we can still win. No more please..

[MrXYZ]

It's frustrating do have these solid plays go against us. I'm being diligent as hell & still down 2 units for the week. Gonna fight the temptation to go big, with you on the Bulls under 179.5 for 2.5 units, let's get this one!

[Love The Action]

FT

It's frustrating do have these solid plays go against us. I'm being diligent as hell & still down 2 units for the week. Gonna fight the temptation to go big, with you on the Bulls under 179.5 for 2.5 units, let's get this one!

[Love The Action]

Don't you just hate when you make a big play and then see some yahoo make a post about that same play being a lock....man that sux...hopefully no jinx tonight...

[GTS925]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1061906-im-back-guarantee-pick-tonight-take-thank-me-later.html

Same thing happened last night.

[Love The Action]

Ref update...

No advantage or disadvantage in the bulls
game. Callahan has a slight under lean, while wright leans over and foster has no lean. Combined they 7-10 in slight favor of the under.

In the lakers game, the refs favor the under with Spooner, Mccutchen and
Salvatore. To add units or not to add, that is the question. However, we need to keep our aggressive philosophy in the face of these recent nba losses, so....I am likely to add units to the lakers under.

Today will be a big day for me. I am very excited. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-me-later.html


Same thing happened last night.

That's ok, we'll let the others throw darts with their monopoly money, while we analyze every angle and aspect of the game to make our plays and invest a calculated percentage of our BR in order to maximize ROI.

The others can get lucky, while we reap the rewards of our hard work. As you know, I provide my reasoning for everyone to review and critique. I believe I have provided a great argument for my plays. We'll let the others use capital letters and the "L" word as the reasoning for their plays. Good luck to all! I am pumped for tonight!

[hoyas2007]

I just briefly looked into possessions in the Bulls-Hawks game 1 - there were around 177 possessions in game 1. Hopefully the pace will slow down a little for game 2, but you're going to need around 1 PPP to hit the under. Game 2 for both Atlanta and Chicago's first round series went under after overs in game 1, so there's precedent there. Interesting trend - Atlanta's PPPs in the series against Orlando went over 1, under 1, over 1, under 1, over 1, under 1. So they really seem to be a streaky team - offense one night, defense the next. That definitely bodes well for you here. I am in agreement with you on the under. 91% on the over is really promising. I would let the public push the line up a bit - my book is at 180.5 now. If it holds steady or goes down a bit from here, I would say the under would be looking really good. If it continues to climb some before game time then I wouldn't be quite as confident, but it still seems like the right side.

I don't know if I'll be as bold as you though in terms of the number of units - these games can go over so easily when the totals are set so low - Thibodeau said yesterday that Rose needs to attack more and draw fouls, so the refs are going to play a big role in this one. I do think you're right that we'll see a focused defensive effort from Chicago and a poor shooting night from Atlanta, which points to the under. Now we just need the pace to stay slow, keep the possessions to a minimum, and not have the game decided by the refs.

[Love The Action]

I just briefly looked into possessions in the Bulls-Hawks game 1 - there were around 177 possessions in game 1. Hopefully the pace will slow down a little for game 2, but you're going to need around 1 PPP to hit the under. Game 2 for both Atlanta and Chicago's first round series went under after overs in game 1, so there's precedent there. Interesting trend - Atlanta's PPPs in the series against Orlando went over 1, under 1, over 1, under 1, over 1, under 1. So they really seem to be a streaky team - offense one night, defense the next. That definitely bodes well for you here. I am in agreement with you on the under. 91% on the over is really promising. I would let the public push the line up a bit - my book is at 180.5 now. If it holds steady or goes down a bit from here, I would say the under would be looking really good. If it continues to climb some before game time then I wouldn't be quite as confident, but it still seems like the right side.

I don't know if I'll be as bold as you though in terms of the number of units - these games can go over so easily when the totals are set so low - Thibodeau said yesterday that Rose needs to attack more and draw fouls, so the refs are going to play a big role in this one. I do think you're right that we'll see a focused defensive effort from Chicago and a poor shooting night from Atlanta, which points to the under. Now we just need the pace to stay slow, keep the possessions to a minimum, and not have the game
decided by the refs.

Thanks for the analysis...much appreciated food for thought.

I also agree that wager size should be an individual choice. I'm going big here because everything I look at points under. However, the books know this and are not providing much wiggle room with such a low number. Therefore, people need to use a stake within their means keeping all this in mind.

Go light, go heavy, tail or fade. I provided the info and my opinion and that's it. Everyone else needs to decide wager amount based on their cicumstances.

Thanks again for your insight and knowledge. Good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/4/11

Hou/Cincy over (8.5) 1x (locked)

Rookie reliever in Rodriguez versus Travis Wood. Both teams are over teams. Despite the public on this play at about 60%, I still like this game to go over and start our day on the bases with some profit. We should also beat the closer with the 8.5 number. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Totals came out for next heat/celts and okc/mem games. They both dropped a full point almost instantly. It appears the sharps are under again for both and I agree. What do you guys think about the next games?

[EntengKabisote]

just missed your MLB play. any other plays for today?

[Holdin Aces]

I have been getting killed with unders so far in the playoffs but I will continue to play them when I fell neccessary. I had both unders last night as well and I lean to both unders again tonight. Just hard to keep betting them with any kind of confidence because the games have been flying over. As always I love the write ups and the work you put into the plays. I always like to check in here before I actually place my wager because I know you leave no stone unturned and I more less go with gut, fade public and line movement. Good luck on your big plays tonight.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/4/11

chi/lad under (7.5) 1x (locked)

L atepost...sorry...busy at work...bol

[Love The Action]

I have been getting killed with unders so far in the playoffs but I will continue to play them when I fell neccessary. I had both unders last night as well and I lean to both unders again tonight. Just hard to keep betting them with any kind of confidence because the games have been flying over. As always I love the write ups and the work you put into the plays. I always like to check in here before I actually place my wager because I know you leave no stone unturned and I more less go with gut, fade public and line movement. Good luck on your big plays tonight.

Thanks...good luck to you as well!

[Love The Action]

MLB

Pit/SD under (6.5) 2x (Locked)

SF/Mets under (6.5) 1x (Locked)



I will have additional mlb plays as well...bol

[Love The Action]

Anyone out there from boston and know if Beckett is healthy? The red sox say yes, but I'm not convinced. I lean under but want more info on Becketts health. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

Mlb

washington ml (+ 135) .75 x (locked)

[hoyas2007]

LTA - what's the line movement like at the sharper books? I play a really square book and my lines are up to 182 and 189, but I saw the Greek is holding at 180.5 and 187.5, so that's better for your plays. Still, it would be nice to see these lines go down a bit, then we could really feel good about the unders. I don't think they will though

[Love The Action]

Rr

LTA - what's the line movement like at the sharper books? I play a really square book and my lines are up to 182 and 189, but I saw the Greek is holding at 180.5 and 187.5, so that's better for your plays. Still, it would be nice to see these lines go down a bit, then we could really feel good about the unders. I don't think they will though

All the sharper books are at 180.5 & 188. I think lakers might dip a bit before tip, not sure about bulls. However, think about how little movement there has been despite 85%-90% of all bets for both games on the under. I agree though and would like to see 5d come down from 181 & the others take a dip before tip...

Leaving work now...good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

Late money on the over...but late money has been wrong the last 3 days, so I hope its wrong again. Good luck to everyone on their plays.

[RANDAZZO]

You think Dallas will make it 2-0 or will Lakers come out firing.

[Love The Action]

Sorry....wasnt able to post this mlb play, but adding for my own records.

Mlb

seattle ml (-115) 1x (locked)

[DrAwInGdEaD]

Nice call on the under bud.