LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

MLB:

Mets/Phillies Under (7) .5x (Locked) WINNER

The books came off the key number of 7.5 despite action that slightly favors the over. That tells me there are some heavy hitters backing the under here. With Halladay pitching you could always see a shutout and I like Niese to come out motivated to pitch well against Halladay and the Phillies.

Just a small play for some early action. Good luck.

MLB
BAL/CSW Over (9.5) 1.5x (Locked) LOSS

Philip Humber comes back down to earth and both he and Tillman get shelled in Chicago. There is a 20 mph wind blowing out to right-center and I expect a lot of runs tonight. Good luck.

Tor/NYY Under (9) .5x (Locked) PUSH

Drabek and Burnett matched up a couple weeks ago and the game went over the posted total of 9 with NY winning 6-5. I like both pitchers to make an adjustment and this game to be lower scoring in the 4-2 range. I'm a fan of betting games with the kid, Drabek, and I think he pitches well tonight. I actually lean Toronto too, but after taking them yesterday and cashing with Romero, I don't want to push my luck. I do like the under thought. Good luck!

MLB

DET/CLE Under 8.5 (+115) .5x (Locked) WINNER

This game is available at a better number as you can probably get 9. However, my local dropped it down and is giving plus odds so I took a shot. Alex White, the Indians top minor league pitcher makes his first start against Porcello. These teams usually go over, but I like the first start angle here as supported by line that has come down from 9.5 despite most bets on the over. Good luck.

MLB

Houston ML (+100) to win over Milwaukee 1x (Locked) WINNER

Milwaukee shut the Astros out yesterday at home and I generally like to bet on home teams to rebound from getting shutout. This is especially true when the pitcher they face the next day is Randy Wolf. I'm a fan of fading Randy Wolf...period. Finally, while Wandy Rodriguez is nothing special, he usually fares very well at home. If you check his career stats, the Astros generally win his starts at home. I'll take a shot here for the Stros to win over the Wolf-led Brewers at plus odds.

MLB

Reds ML (+110) to win over the Marlins .5x (Locked) WINNER

There aren't many game I would bet against Johnson, but I like this spot for Volquez. He's picked it up in his last couple starts and Johnson can't win them all. I like Volquez to pitch well and the Reds to win as a home dog after losing by one run last night.

MLB recap for 4/30/11

4-1-1 +.8 units

A profitable day of MLB investing, however, not as profitable as we could have been. Our only loss was our biggest bet of the day on the CWS/Bal over. Nevertheless, profit is profit and I will take it.

[GTS925]

LTA, how many units are you going to lay on OKC Over 195?

[Love The Action]

MLA

Atlanta ML (-110) to win over STL 1x (Locked)

The Cardinals have beaten Atlanta in Georgia two games in a row now because of late inning runs. These are tough losses for Atlanta. However, I don't see the sweep happening today. Derek Lowe is a good, veteran pitcher to have in this situation and I don't think Jaime Garcia continues pitching as well as his 2.08 ERA indicates. Because of the previous two losses, 60% of all bets are on STL ML and we are getting a good price for this Braves team at home. I think Atlanta comes out strong today and I'm rolling with the Braves at home.

[Love The Action]

LTA, how many units are you going to lay on OKC Over 195?

Playing it small. If I can get 195, that is pretty good value for this matchup which went over all four game during the regular season and five game in a row overall. I think the opening number of 198 is more accurate.

However, I also believe that the under is a strong possibility, is backed up by the line movement and should hit more often than not in this series. Nevertheless, the first game of every playoff series presents a better chance for the over in the rest of the games. I expect a quick pace from both teams in this game and a good shooting performance. At most, I will play this for 1 unit. However, let's wait and see how the ref assignments look.

Plus, I am still seeing 195.5...not sure if I want to by this half point or not. Hopefully it dips that one extra half point. I really expect the total to start going back up, so I guess the question is if it has bottomed out already. About to look at everything a little closer right now. Good luck.

[EntengKabisote]

Miami vs Boston total line has no movement since yesterday. By the way LTA what is your win percentage in NBA bets?

[southpaw74]

Nice job lta, keep it rolling

[GTS925]

Thanks LTA, good luck tonight

[Love The Action]

Miami vs Boston total line has no movement since yesterday. By the way LTA what is your win percentage in NBA bets?

That's because big, early money came in on the under but most of the bets have come in on the over yesterday. There's not enough money on the over to justify raising the line at this time and the books want to protect against the under and are consequently keeping the total at the 181.5 number.

I am a profitable NBA investor, and sports investor overall, however, I am not going to make any undocumented claims as to winning percentage because that will only bring out the trolls. In the games I have documented in previous threads, I am successful as to both win percentage and units won (see below). I will keep a record in this thread moving forward as that is easier than doing multiple threads.

The first link below is my first documented play with a write-up where I cashed both a big play of 12.5 units on the Lakers/NO under in Game 2 of that series and a play of 5 units on the OKC/Denver under in Game 2 of the OKC series. I have also posted some links to my other documented plays for your ease of reference. As you can see, I have generally ended with profit in each of those threads.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1042553-pounding-lakers-no-under.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1047201-ltas-nba-plays-sat-4-23-11-a.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/1049344-under-play-cardinals-reds.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1049654-over-play-sa-mem-4-25-11-a.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1051312-ltas-nba-mlb-plays-tue-4-26-11-a.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1052772-mia-phil-sneaks-over.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/1054075-3-big-plays-thursday-4-28-11-a.html

[Love The Action]

Does anyone know why the ref assignments have not been released?

[Love The Action]

Adding .5x at 181.5 for a total of 2.5x on the Under in Mia/BOS (2x at 182.5 and .5x at 181.5)

All the books moving down...had to lock this in quick. I still have not seen the ref assignments and don't know why they have not been released. If the ref assignments lean under, I will probably make it an even 3 units on the under.

[chevy6]

Does anyone know why the ref assignments have not been released?

Referee assignments are updated daily at approximately 11:00am ET


covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/referees/current_assignments.html

[Love The Action]

Referee assignments are updated daily at approximately 11:00am ET


covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/referees/current_assignments.html

They actually come out daily at 9am EST on NBA.com. Covers just takes time to upload everything. However, the ref assignments have not been released yet anywhere. Just wondering why not. This is making me angry as the line drops and I don't know what the assignments are. Thanks for trying to help though.

[Love The Action]

NBA

OKC/MEM Over (194) (-120) 1x (Locked)

I bought the hook here, because it could be right at this number. I'm not risking a lot, but I do think we should pick up some profit with the over in this game. My regular season deviation spreadsheet has this right at 194.1. That's why I was stuck in limbo of what to do with this game when I didn't catch the opener. Once it dropped down to 195, I sort of felt there is some value on the over.

As I am sure you know, the last five games between these two teams have gone over (one game because of OT). It should also be noted, however, that only one of those games was after the Perkins trade and he did not play in the that game. I believe the future games will predominately play to the under because of OKC's commitment to defense that occurred after the Perkins trade. However, based on matchup history, I believe this first game of the series goes over because I expect these two teams to (1) play an uptempo, fast pace and (2) shoot well today.

As I stated, I have this capped right around the 194 number. However, I think this game is likely to hit 196 because of both matchup history and trends. For example, when Memphis is a dog of 6-6.5 and OKC is a favorite of the same number, they are a combined 14-1 in favor of the over. Memphis is 9-2 in favor of the over in their last 11 games. Both of these teams generally played to the over against other playoff caliber teams during regular season, but especially the Grizz going 27-16 in favor the over. Memphis is playing in a rhythm right now and scoring well. They didn't have a lot of time off after the SA series and are 25-18 in favor of the over on one days' rest. I just think all of these trends show that Memphis is going to come out running and hitting some shots. I trust that OKC will reciprocate.

Both of these young teams are going to be jacked with adrenaline to open this game. This can go one of two ways: (1) they play better defense and miss shots or (2) they run, gun and shoot well to start the game. I am betting on the latter. I believe the second half will slow down, but the early scoring should be enough to put us over the top into that 196 range. I may also put a little on the 1q or 1h over as well. However, I generally cap full games and I like this game to sneak over.

Good luck!

[chevy6]

something is fishy

[Love The Action]

Sun. May 1 Game Official 1 Official 2 Official 3 Alternate
Boston @ Miami Dan Crawford Derrick Collins Ed Malloy David Jones
Memphis @ Joe Crawford Marc Davis Zach Zarba Sean Wright
Oklahoma City


Ref Assignments are out. Pretty much all of these refs show no lean on the over/under.

If anything, there is a slight favor to the over in the Mem/OKC game with Zarba and Joe Crawford who make a lot of bad, ticky tack fouls. Malloy favors the under a little so that's shaping up well for the Heat game.

[Love The Action]

MLB

Seattle (ML) (-110) to win over the Red Sox .5x (Locked)

My second MLB play today will be on King Felix and the Mariners to take out the Red Sox. The public is all over the Red Sox giving us great value for Hernandez today. I'm not going to pass that value when the opposing pitcher is Tim Wakefield I just don't see the knuckle working today against the Mariners. Plus, they are not playing Milton Bradley in the lineup and that can only help. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

something is fishy

I think the ref assignments come out later on Sundays....

[Love The Action]

If you can get the Twins under in MLB, I would take it. My local took it off the board five minutes earlier than the first pitch...BS.

[Love The Action]

Wow...this could not set up any better for game 2 of the OKC/Mem series. With all these points being scored, we are very likely to cash our over in this first game. However, that sets us up perfectly for a big play on the under in game 2. Because of the fast pace and high score, you are going to see game 2 open around 198 and everyone will be on the over. However, we know better and know the shooting percentages will come back down to earth next game and OKC will make some huge defensive adjustments. This could be a big money-making opportunity...

[tom1234]

LTA , my local has 180 1/2 on BOS vs MIA , still take it ? thanks

[Love The Action]

LTA , my local has 180 1/2 on BOS vs MIA , still take it ? thanks

The under is the play in the Heat/Celts game. I took it at 182.5 and 181.5. I would also take it at 180.5. However, you need to do what makes you comfortable. Good luck!

[tom1234]

i know, thanks

[Love The Action]

CELTICS/HEAT UNDER (182.5) 2x (Locked)

I actually locked this in last night and may add units closer to tip as (1) the ref assignments are released, (2) we see how the money comes in and (3) how the line fluctuates from those bets. In addition to Sunday's game, the below write-up applies to this Heat/Celts series as a whole. I expect to play more unders in this series, unless the oddsmakers drop the total to such an extent that there is more value on the over. However, I firmly believe we will see more unders than overs in this series for the following reasons.

These two teams played four games this year, all of them with playoff-like intensity, and three of the four games stayed under the posted total. The ending totals of these games were as follows: 168 (under the posted total of 189), 219 (over the posted total of 183.5), 167 (under the posted total of 188.5) and 177 (under the posted total of 183). I see this series following the trends of these preceding games, with both teams focusing on a slow pace that is predicated on defense and half-court offense. In the only one of the aforementioned games which went over the posted total, both teams shot over 50%. I don't see these two defensive-minded teams shooting 50% consistently game after game in this series. Even if they do, the slow pace which results from this matchup may still allow for some unders. For example, in the last game where the teams played to a 177 total, the Heat shot 50.3% in scoring 100 points, while the Celtics shot 45.3% in scoring 77 points. Despite these high shooting percentages, the game stayed under the posted total because of the slow pace.

I believe we will see collective field goal attempts hover around the 143 - 145 range. In the aforementioned games, we saw total field goal attempts of 143, 151, 145 and 139. With respect to three point attempts, we should expect an average of around 35 total three point attempts per game with a collective hit rate in the 30% - 40% range. Finally, we should expect around 50 free throws attempted per game as well (which, as you know, depends heavily on the ref assignments) with a collective hit-rate around 75%.

If we are conservative and say 45 collective points will result from three point shots, that would leave us with a 135 point cushion from the approximate 113 remaining field goal and 50 free throw attempts per game which should result from the pace we expect in this series. With a solid shooting percentage of 45% on those remaining 113 remaining fg attempts (equates to about 101 total points) and 75% on the 50 free throw attempts (equates to about 37 points), we would get a total expectation of 183 points (as an fyi, this is also the number derived from my regular season deviation spreadsheet). Using those conservative numbers, we would cash the under more often than not with a total set around that magic 183 number. Remember, those are using conservative numbers; with the defensive effort expected to be put forth by these two teams in this playoff series, I expect the shooting percentages outlined above to be consistently lower. This has proven to be true in three of the last four games between these two teams.

Unfortunately, oddsmakers understand all of this and have not given us much value on the under with this total posted so low. The line opened at 182.5 and basically stayed steady until it dropped to 182 early this morning. Currently, the action is pretty even on both the over and the under, with slightly more action on the under as I type. However, as we get closer to tip, I expect the casual bettor to pound the over and perhaps we get a half point or more to use to our advantage if we decide to add units. Nevertheless, we need to remain flexible in order to adjust to the oddsmakers adjustments. For example, if the first game ends with a total of 160 and oddsmakers go down to 175, we would probably adjust and play the over because that is where the value lies. I always try to make the play that has the most value. However, in the real world, we would never see such a huge adjustment from the oddsmakers so I expect the under will remain our play.

I am concerned that, perhaps for this first game of the series, we see both teams run a little more than they will in the later games. After all, it's not unusual to see an over hit the very first game of any playoff series. Take a look at the first round games for evidence of that concept. However, as we get to the more important games, I fully expect both teams to really clamp down on defense and employ a slow, half-court style of offensive play.

We have plenty of trends to support this under play. While I don't I put a ton of stock in these "publicly available" trends, I do think they are important to note in support of or against a particular play. Here are some of the trends which support the under:

Boston:

• Under is 5-0-1 in Celtics last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.
• Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 Sunday games.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 20-6-1 in Celtics last 27 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 19-6-1 in Celtics last 26 overall.
• Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games as an underdog.
• Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
• Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 34-16-1 in Celtics last 51 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 48-23-1 in Celtics last 72 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

Heat:

• Under is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 7-0-1 in Heat last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 overall.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 Sunday games.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
• Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games as a favorite.

In addition, this first game will be played at 3:30pm EST. These two teams are a combined 4-16 in favor of the under during games that take place during the day. Consequently, I think it is safe to say the trends favor the under in this series.

For the foregoing reasons, I will be playing the under in this first game of the Heat/Celtics series. Because that 183 number is so important for the posted total, we will base the remainder of our plays on the adjustment of the oddsmakers away from that magic 183 number. If there is value on the over, we won't be afraid to pull the trigger. However, I believe I have laid out why the under is the better play, and as long as we do not see a large adjustment from the oddsmakers, the under will probably remain our play in this series.

It's time to go look at the Memphis/OKC, Bulls/Atlanta and Lakers/Mavs series. I will post all of thoughts on those series and individual plays in this thread as well.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts on all of my plays, either in support of or against them. Either way, however, please post the reasons in support of your view.

Thanks and good luck!

Adding .5x at 181.5 for a total of 2.5x on the Under in Mia/BOS (2x at 182.5 and .5x at 181.5)

All the books moving down...had to lock this in quick. I still have not seen the ref assignments and don't know why they have not been released. If the ref assignments lean under, I will probably make it an even 3 units on the under.

Adding .5x at 180.5 for a total of 3x on the Under in Mia/Bos (2x at 182.5, .5x at 181.5 and .5x at 180.5)

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

NBA

OKC/MEM Over (194) (-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I bought the hook here, because it could be right at this number. I'm not risking a lot, but I do think we should pick up some profit with the over in this game. My regular season deviation spreadsheet has this right at 194.1. That's why I was stuck in limbo of what to do with this game when I didn't catch the opener. Once it dropped down to 195, I sort of felt there is some value on the over.

As I am sure you know, the last five games between these two teams have gone over (one game because of OT). It should also be noted, however, that only one of those games was after the Perkins trade and he did not play in the that game. I believe the future games will predominately play to the under because of OKC's commitment to defense that occurred after the Perkins trade. However, based on matchup history, I believe this first game of the series goes over because I expect these two teams to (1) play an uptempo, fast pace and (2) shoot well today.

As I stated, I have this capped right around the 194 number. However, I think this game is likely to hit 196 because of both matchup history and trends. For example, when Memphis is a dog of 6-6.5 and OKC is a favorite of the same number, they are a combined 14-1 in favor of the over. Memphis is 9-2 in favor of the over in their last 11 games. Both of these teams generally played to the over against other playoff caliber teams during regular season, but especially the Grizz going 27-16 in favor the over. Memphis is playing in a rhythm right now and scoring well. They didn't have a lot of time off after the SA series and are 25-18 in favor of the over on one days' rest. I just think all of these trends show that Memphis is going to come out running and hitting some shots. I trust that OKC will reciprocate.

Both of these young teams are going to be jacked with adrenaline to open this game. This can go one of two ways: (1) they play better defense and miss shots or (2) they run, gun and shoot well to start the game. I am betting on the latter. I believe the second half will slow down, but the early scoring should be enough to put us over the top into that 196 range. I may also put a little on the 1q or 1h over as well. However, I generally cap full games and I like this game to sneak over.

Good luck!

NBA 5/1/11
1-0 +1x

Solid start to the day with a 1 unit winner on the over in OKC/Mem...let's keep it up in the Heat game and hope Atlanta and Seattle can close out their comebacks in MLB!

[Love The Action]

NBA

Atl/Chi Under (178.5) 2x (Locked)

Dal/LAL Under (188.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll probably have write-ups for both tomorrow.

Atl/Chi Summary

I expect this Atlanta/Chicago series to be a continuation of the under gravy train we just finished cashing in the previous Atlanta series with the Magic. Therefore, I fully expect to profit off this series whether we cash this first under or not, as this series sets up perfectly for a chase of the under.

However, I have no reason to doubt that we will cash the under in this first game for the following reasons.
First off, my regular season deviation spreadsheet has this first game at 171. That gives me 7 points of value that I love and we will probably be adding to the units on this one once we check the ref assignments.

Out of the three games Chicago and Atlanta played against each other in the regular season, two of the three went under. The only game that went over was the late-March demolition of the Hawks by the Bulls and Derrick Rose. That game was one of the infamous Rose revenge games where Rose held a grudge against a team for a bad performance in a previous matchup and then came out destroyed that team in the next game. Rose and the Bulls did this numerous times throughout the year and happened to shoot almost 55% in this third regular season game with the Hawks. However, the Hawks were struggling at the time and the Bulls were rolling and I don't see quite the same setup in this game. I believe this game goes under similar to the first two regular season games.

In the first two regular season games between the Bulls and Hawks, both teams shot between 40% and 45%, which is what we should expect in this first game and the series in general. We should also expect a slow pace, predicated on defense and half-court offense. Based on the previous three games, we can expect about 40-45 free throws, 150-155 field goal attempts, of which 30-35 should be three point attempts. I think at best, these two teams shoot a collective 30% from three point range in this series where perimeter defense will be in full effect.

Therefore, if we get about 30 points from three pointers, that gives us about 147 points of cushion from remaining 120 or so regular field goal attempts and 45 or so free throws. Being conservative and saying these two teams can shoot a collective 45% from the field (which I don't think will happen) and 75% for free throws, that would give us about an additional 141 points to add to the 30 from three point land. That puts us right back at that magic 171 number and you can see I derive the value in the under in this game and series.

The trends back this under play up as well. Most publicly available trends point to the under:

Atlanta:

• Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games as an underdog.
• Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
• Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
• Under is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 21-8 in Hawks last 29 Monday games.
• Under is 46-19 in Hawks last 65 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 7-3 in Hawks last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Chicago:

• Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 Monday games.
• Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 overall.
• Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games as a favorite.
• Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.

In addition, at this 175-179 posted total range, these two teams are a collective 2-10 in favor of the under. Against winning playoff-type teams, the Bulls are Hawks are a collective 23-48 in favor of the under. It's clear, based on the foregoing, that the trends favor the under.

With the public pounding the over to the tune of 70%+, this is setting up as a great situation of us under backers. The line opened up at 179 and dropped to its current 178 despite all of these over bets. That tell me the real heavy hitters were all about the under at opening. I took it at 178.5 and will probably add to 178. Unfortunately, most outlets are juicing the under at 178, so I'm not sure if that number will last until the ref assignments are released and I may need to add units tonight.

For the foregoing reasons, I really like this under play and believe the under to be the play for this series as a whole. Good luck!

Lakers/Dallas Summary

The under here is a risky play and I can't support it as strongly as I could some of my other plays. Nevertheless, I like the under here based on the pace of these two teams in the playoffs and their commitment to defense. These two teams know defense will win this series and I expect a much slower pace than the regular season games.

In the regular season, these two teams played three times and went over two of those three games. These two teams played a fast pace and shot well when they played each other. In addition, most of the trends point to the over. However, I just don't think these veteran teams play the same type of game in the playoffs. I think they D-up and slow down the pace. I don't see these teams shooting over 50% on a regular basis like the regular season.

I think you will see a good adversary for Bynum with Chandler. Both these teams know each other well, and I think that knowledge helps out on the defensive end rather than the offensive end.

I admit that the regular season results of this matchup don't support the under in this game, yet we had a dip in the line despite 60% of all bets on the over.

I will probably not play this for more than 1 unit, but I expect the under to cash in this first game. Good luck.

[chevy6]

lets get $$$$$ ..thanks for the plays too..saved my day lol

[Love The Action]

MLA

Atlanta ML (-110) to win over STL 1x (Locked) WINNER

The Cardinals have beaten Atlanta in Georgia two games in a row now because of late inning runs. These are tough losses for Atlanta. However, I don't see the sweep happening today. Derek Lowe is a good, veteran pitcher to have in this situation and I don't think Jaime Garcia continues pitching as well as his 2.08 ERA indicates. Because of the previous two losses, 60% of all bets are on STL ML and we are getting a good price for this Braves team at home. I think Atlanta comes out strong today and I'm rolling with the Braves at home.

MLB

Seattle (ML) (-110) to win over the Red Sox .5x (Locked) LOSS

My second MLB play today will be on King Felix and the Mariners to take out the Red Sox. The public is all over the Red Sox giving us great value for Hernandez today. I'm not going to pass that value when the opposing pitcher is Tim Wakefield I just don't see the knuckle working today against the Mariners. Plus, they are not playing Milton Bradley in the lineup and that can only help. Good luck.

Seattle gave up a walk-off run in the bottom of the ninth after tying it up, otherwise we could have had the early morning sweep after we cashed on the Braves who pulled off the comeback to avoid the sweep and we cashed on Mem/OKC over.

MLB 5/1/11

1-1 +.55x

MLB plays in this thread

5-2-1 +1.35x

[Love The Action]

lets get $$$$$ ..thanks for the plays too..saved my day lol

[No coincidences]

Anything less than 181 was a bad under bet.

This will come down to the wire, as it almost always does.

[Love The Action]

Anything less than 181 was a bad under bet.

This will come down to the wire, as it almost always does.

I would put that number at 180. It's always at the number like you say...we'll see. Hopefully, the fourth quarter mirrors the first.

[Love The Action]

42 point cushion...

[Love The Action]

CELTICS/HEAT UNDER (182.5) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I actually locked this in last night and may add units closer to tip as (1) the ref assignments are released, (2) we see how the money comes in and (3) how the line fluctuates from those bets. In addition to Sunday's game, the below write-up applies to this Heat/Celts series as a whole. I expect to play more unders in this series, unless the oddsmakers drop the total to such an extent that there is more value on the over. However, I firmly believe we will see more unders than overs in this series for the following reasons.

These two teams played four games this year, all of them with playoff-like intensity, and three of the four games stayed under the posted total. The ending totals of these games were as follows: 168 (under the posted total of 189), 219 (over the posted total of 183.5), 167 (under the posted total of 188.5) and 177 (under the posted total of 183). I see this series following the trends of these preceding games, with both teams focusing on a slow pace that is predicated on defense and half-court offense. In the only one of the aforementioned games which went over the posted total, both teams shot over 50%. I don't see these two defensive-minded teams shooting 50% consistently game after game in this series. Even if they do, the slow pace which results from this matchup may still allow for some unders. For example, in the last game where the teams played to a 177 total, the Heat shot 50.3% in scoring 100 points, while the Celtics shot 45.3% in scoring 77 points. Despite these high shooting percentages, the game stayed under the posted total because of the slow pace.

I believe we will see collective field goal attempts hover around the 143 - 145 range. In the aforementioned games, we saw total field goal attempts of 143, 151, 145 and 139. With respect to three point attempts, we should expect an average of around 35 total three point attempts per game with a collective hit rate in the 30% - 40% range. Finally, we should expect around 50 free throws attempted per game as well (which, as you know, depends heavily on the ref assignments) with a collective hit-rate around 75%.

If we are conservative and say 45 collective points will result from three point shots, that would leave us with a 135 point cushion from the approximate 113 remaining field goal and 50 free throw attempts per game which should result from the pace we expect in this series. With a solid shooting percentage of 45% on those remaining 113 remaining fg attempts (equates to about 101 total points) and 75% on the 50 free throw attempts (equates to about 37 points), we would get a total expectation of 183 points (as an fyi, this is also the number derived from my regular season deviation spreadsheet). Using those conservative numbers, we would cash the under more often than not with a total set around that magic 183 number. Remember, those are using conservative numbers; with the defensive effort expected to be put forth by these two teams in this playoff series, I expect the shooting percentages outlined above to be consistently lower. This has proven to be true in three of the last four games between these two teams.

Unfortunately, oddsmakers understand all of this and have not given us much value on the under with this total posted so low. The line opened at 182.5 and basically stayed steady until it dropped to 182 early this morning. Currently, the action is pretty even on both the over and the under, with slightly more action on the under as I type. However, as we get closer to tip, I expect the casual bettor to pound the over and perhaps we get a half point or more to use to our advantage if we decide to add units. Nevertheless, we need to remain flexible in order to adjust to the oddsmakers adjustments. For example, if the first game ends with a total of 160 and oddsmakers go down to 175, we would probably adjust and play the over because that is where the value lies. I always try to make the play that has the most value. However, in the real world, we would never see such a huge adjustment from the oddsmakers so I expect the under will remain our play.

I am concerned that, perhaps for this first game of the series, we see both teams run a little more than they will in the later games. After all, it's not unusual to see an over hit the very first game of any playoff series. Take a look at the first round games for evidence of that concept. However, as we get to the more important games, I fully expect both teams to really clamp down on defense and employ a slow, half-court style of offensive play.

We have plenty of trends to support this under play. While I don't I put a ton of stock in these "publicly available" trends, I do think they are important to note in support of or against a particular play. Here are some of the trends which support the under:

Boston:

• Under is 5-0-1 in Celtics last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.
• Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 Sunday games.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 20-6-1 in Celtics last 27 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 19-6-1 in Celtics last 26 overall.
• Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games as an underdog.
• Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
• Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 34-16-1 in Celtics last 51 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 48-23-1 in Celtics last 72 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

Heat:

• Under is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 7-0-1 in Heat last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Under is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 overall.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 Sunday games.
• Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
• Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games as a favorite.

In addition, this first game will be played at 3:30pm EST. These two teams are a combined 4-16 in favor of the under during games that take place during the day. Consequently, I think it is safe to say the trends favor the under in this series.

For the foregoing reasons, I will be playing the under in this first game of the Heat/Celtics series. Because that 183 number is so important for the posted total, we will base the remainder of our plays on the adjustment of the oddsmakers away from that magic 183 number. If there is value on the over, we won't be afraid to pull the trigger. However, I believe I have laid out why the under is the better play, and as long as we do not see a large adjustment from the oddsmakers, the under will probably remain our play in this series.

It's time to go look at the Memphis/OKC, Bulls/Atlanta and Lakers/Mavs series. I will post all of thoughts on those series and individual plays in this thread as well.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts on all of my plays, either in support of or against them. Either way, however, please post the reasons in support of your view.

Thanks and good luck!

NBA 5/1/11

1-1 -1.8x

We won with the Grizz/OKC over but lose with our bigger play. I'm not one to make excuses, but I think you can all see why the ref assignments are so important. In addition to Miami's shooting 50%, the refs gave this game away and became the story. That was horrible officiating. Oh well, at least there should be some more value on the under in the next game.

[Love The Action]

MLB

NYM/PHIL Under (7) (+100) 1.5x (Locked)

I've been waiting all day to make this play and was hoping the 70% of the public on the over would have pushed the line up to 7.5. Chris Young has been pitching well and is pretty much the best the Mets can throw out there. Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee and will generally give you a quality start every time. Young should be pumped to pitch against Lee and three really well against the Phillies last time out. I really wanted to get 7.5 because both these teams are over machines, however, both Young and Lee have low WHIP's of 1.05 and 1.06 and I think we'll see a 4-2 game.

I also saw that Dexter has one of his autobet plays on this game with Wolf being the umpire, so that it just one more factor for this play.
Finally, I'm hoping we see the recent trends of Sunday Night Baseball unders continue. This should be played with intense atmosphere in Philly and I like the under to hit. Good luck!

[Camfriend87]

Your write ups are very convincing. . . . I always want to just pick 1 pick to follow but I can never decide haha

[NBA_Brosuf]

NBA 5/1/11

1-1 -1.8x

We won with the Grizz/OKC over but lose with our bigger play. I'm not one to make excuses, but I think you can all see why the ref assignments are so important. In addition to Miami's shooting 50%, the refs gave this game away and became the story. That was horrible officiating. Oh well, at least there should be some more value on the under in the next game.

I haven't look into further details until the day after tomorrow but I'm betting that wade and that 3 pointer james guy will not be as hot. They will come down to earth however, I'm also betting that Celtics will not struggle in the first quarter like they did today and Rhondo and Garnett will get their points up.

When there is a + and - involve, I am not going to play the total in this second game. I would like to play the under only if Rhondo and the rest are getting their numbers and yet, the total scores only exceeded the total line by 7 to 8 points.

I think the game today, the under was the right call. What kills are bad officiating and they be knocking them 3's. Who the heck is this 3 baller james guy? Dude should only get 5 points to push it for our under. LOL