LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

Love The Action · 05-01-11, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf

I haven't look into further details until the day after tomorrow but I'm betting that wade and that 3 pointer james guy will not be as hot. They will come down to earth however, I'm also betting that Celtics will not struggle in the first quarter like they did today and Rhondo and Garnett will get their points up.

When there is a + and - involve, I am not going to play the total in this second game. I would like to play the under only if Rhondo and the rest are getting their numbers and yet, the total scores only exceeded the total line by 7 to 8 points.

I think the game today, the under was the right call. What kills are bad officiating and they be knocking them 3's. Who the heck is this 3 baller james guy? Dude should only get 5 points to push it for our under. LOL

It was an aberration for both teams to shoot a collective 50% from three point range. You can expect that percentage to drop. In addition, I don't believe the Heat will shoot 50% overall in game 2. Both of these teams are efficient offensively, but not efficient. I expect a return to the mean in game 2.

Love The Action · 05-01-11, 07:45 PM

Go light with the unders Monday. It's pretty hot trend that the first game of a series goes over the posted total this postseason. Check out the first round results this year and the first two games of this round and you see that the trend is the over for that first game because of high shooting percentages. However, after the first game over hits, and shooting percentages revert to their mean, the second game goes under. I like that second game under trend to continue in the Heat/Celts and OKC/Mem series.

EntengKabisote · 05-01-11, 08:37 PM

Still confident the Hawks vs Bulls game will go under tomorrow? It seems every first game of a series goes over.

Love The Action · 05-01-11, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by EntengKabisote

Still confident the Hawks vs Bulls game will go under tomorrow? It seems every first game of a series goes over.

Oh yeah...don't get me wrong, I'm on the under to win it. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it went over based on this first game trend. In fact, in a weird way, I sort of hope it does as it sets up for a big play on the under in the following game.

For example, I will have bigger plays on the Mem/OKC and Heat/Celts under for Tuesday games. At least five units each.

However, I still see real value in the Bulls under for the first game and will be on it full force. Perhaps upping to 3 units depending on the refs.

Love The Action · 05-01-11, 09:26 PM

NBA

For Tuesday 5/3/11
Bos/Mia Under 182.5 5x (Locked)

Mem/OKC Under 198.5 5x (Locked)

I want to make sure I get the opener. Although, I will not be surprised to see those go up a bit before they make another drop. I may add to both. Good luck.

kobstopa · 05-02-11, 01:56 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA

Atl/Chi Under (178.5) 2x (Locked)

Dal/LAL Under (188.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll probably have write-ups for both tomorrow.

I will probably be playing the over in the Memphis/OKC game as well if I can get 195.

good luck LTA,
i am staying away from opening game 1 - under play for the moment, about 80% of opening first round went over & again 2 games today in 2nd round as well,

good luck with your play either way.

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by kobstopa

good luck LTA,
i am staying away from opening game 1 - under play for the moment, about 80% of opening first round went over & again 2 games today in 2nd round as well,

good luck with your play either way.

Thanks...same to you. If any two teams can break the over streak for opening games, it's the Hawks and Bulls. Either way, all of these series will prove profitable by the end and that's all we can ask.

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 05:41 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB

NYM/PHIL Under (7) (+100) 1.5x (Locked) WINNER

I've been waiting all day to make this play and was hoping the 70% of the public on the over would have pushed the line up to 7.5. Chris Young has been pitching well and is pretty much the best the Mets can throw out there. Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee and will generally give you a quality start every time. Young should be pumped to pitch against Lee and three really well against the Phillies last time out. I really wanted to get 7.5 because both these teams are over machines, however, both Young and Lee have low WHIP's of 1.05 and 1.06 and I think we'll see a 4-2 game.

I also saw that Dexter has one of his autobet plays on this game with Wolf being the umpire, so that it just one more factor for this play.
Finally, I'm hoping we see the recent trends of Sunday Night Baseball unders continue. This should be played with intense atmosphere in Philly and I like the under to hit. Good luck!

Another nice MLB winner as we stay consistent on the diamond.

MLB 5/1/11

2-1 +2.05x

MLB plays in this thread

6-2-1 +2.85x

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 07:37 AM

He gone...you can run, but you can't hide forever...good riddance and rot in hell.

fishtot · 05-02-11, 07:41 AM

No pictures, buried at see to avoid a place for muslims to worship...give me a break, approval ratings down for president, worthless Brittish wedding of people with no power over, dont fall for this garbage people...

fishtot · 05-02-11, 07:44 AM

troops will still be sent overseeing and many americans are still going to get blasted, what has changed, oh they did report oil barrels went down and the stock market is going to kick ass today, all part of this governments master plan to restore confidence in this countries leadership, hahaha, what a joke

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by fishtot

troops will still be sent overseeing and many americans are still going to get blasted, what has changed, oh they did report oil barrels went down and the stock market is going to kick ass today, all part of this governments master plan to restore confidence in this countries leadership, hahaha, what a joke

I don't disagree. However, I still celebrate the military precision and give thanks to the brave men and women who defend my country. They are the true heroes of this world and this event was a win for them. This event should not be associated with the president, rather, we should take this opportunity to thank the people who dedicate their lives to keeping my country as safe as possible.

Now, back to the games. My apologies for the digression.

fadeCOVERS4me · 05-02-11, 08:44 AM

Good luck on ur under plays 2nite

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 11:23 AM

Refs look ok..no big over leans in either game and they actually look to favor the under in the Bulls game.

The opening game over trend may deter me from adding units however. I will wait to see where this line goes with over 70%+ of all bets on the over as I type. Bol...

EntengKabisote · 05-02-11, 12:14 PM

Any MLB bets tonight? BOL

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 12:44 PM

Yes, but I will not lock my plays in until about 30 minutes prior to first pitch. You can check back around that time if still interested. Thanks and good luck!

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 02:41 PM

Adding .5x for total of 2.5x on Bulls/hawks under at 178.5.

Originally posted by Love The Action

Atl/Chi Summary

I expect this Atlanta/Chicago series to be a continuation of the under gravy train we just finished cashing in the previous Atlanta series with the Magic. Therefore, I fully expect to profit off this series whether we cash this first under or not, as this series sets up perfectly for a chase of the under.

However, I have no reason to doubt that we will cash the under in this first game for the following reasons.
First off, my regular season deviation spreadsheet has this first game at 171. That gives me 7 points of value that I love and we will probably be adding to the units on this one once we check the ref assignments.

Out of the three games Chicago and Atlanta played against each other in the regular season, two of the three went under. The only game that went over was the late-March demolition of the Hawks by the Bulls and Derrick Rose. That game was one of the infamous Rose revenge games where Rose held a grudge against a team for a bad performance in a previous matchup and then came out destroyed that team in the next game. Rose and the Bulls did this numerous times throughout the year and happened to shoot almost 55% in this third regular season game with the Hawks. However, the Hawks were struggling at the time and the Bulls were rolling and I don't see quite the same setup in this game. I believe this game goes under similar to the first two regular season games.

In the first two regular season games between the Bulls and Hawks, both teams shot between 40% and 45%, which is what we should expect in this first game and the series in general. We should also expect a slow pace, predicated on defense and half-court offense. Based on the previous three games, we can expect about 40-45 free throws, 150-155 field goal attempts, of which 30-35 should be three point attempts. I think at best, these two teams shoot a collective 30% from three point range in this series where perimeter defense will be in full effect.

Therefore, if we get about 30 points from three pointers, that gives us about 147 points of cushion from remaining 120 or so regular field goal attempts and 45 or so free throws. Being conservative and saying these two teams can shoot a collective 45% from the field (which I don't think will happen) and 75% for free throws, that would give us about an additional 141 points to add to the 30 from three point land. That puts us right back at that magic 171 number and you can see I derive the value in the under in this game and series.

The trends back this under play up as well. Most publicly available trends point to the under:

Atlanta:

Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 21-8 in Hawks last 29 Monday games.
Under is 46-19 in Hawks last 65 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-3 in Hawks last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Chicago:

Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 Monday games.
Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 overall.
Under is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.

In addition, at this 175-179 posted total range, these two teams are a collective 2-10 in favor of the under. Against winning playoff-type teams, the Bulls are Hawks are a collective 23-48 in favor of the under. It's clear, based on the foregoing, that the trends favor the under.

With the public pounding the over to the tune of 70%+, this is setting up as a great situation of us under backers. The line opened up at 179 and dropped to its current 178 despite all of these over bets. That tell me the real heavy hitters were all about the under at opening. I took it at 178.5 and will probably add to 178. Unfortunately, most outlets are juicing the under at 178, so I'm not sure if that number will last until the ref assignments are released and I may need to add units tonight.

For the foregoing reasons, I really like this under play and believe the under to be the play for this series as a whole. Good luck!

Lakers/Dallas Summary

The under here is a risky play and I can't support it as strongly as I could some of my other plays. Nevertheless, I like the under here based on the pace of these two teams in the playoffs and their commitment to defense. These two teams know defense will win this series and I expect a much slower pace than the regular season games.

In the regular season, these two teams played three times and went over two of those three games. These two teams played a fast pace and shot well when they played each other. In addition, most of the trends point to the over. However, I just don't think these veteran teams play the same type of game in the playoffs. I think they D-up and slow down the pace. I don't see these teams shooting over 50% on a regular basis like the regular season.

I think you will see a good adversary for Bynum with Chandler. Both these teams know each other well, and I think that knowledge helps out on the defensive end rather than the offensive end.

I admit that the regular season results of this matchup don't support the under in this game, yet we had a dip in the line despite 60% of all bets on the over.

I will probably not play this for more than 1 unit, but I expect the under to cash in this first game. Good luck.

jacer333 · 05-02-11, 02:43 PM

LTA...I appreciate all the time you put into your picks and forming write-ups. BOL on the play tonight, looks good to me too.

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by jacer333

LTA...I appreciate all the time you put into your picks and forming write-ups. BOL on the play tonight, looks good to me too.

Thanks and good luck!

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 04:38 PM

The line has dropped down to 177.5 in the bulls game despite 70%+ on the over. Its also gone down to 187.5 in the lakers game despite most action on the over.

So our plays seem to be supported by the big money...now all we need is some defense and poor shooting!

Good luck tonight whichever side you take!

NBA_Brosuf · 05-02-11, 04:40 PM

I have faith in them bulls to put up them points. I'm not too sure if atl can put up them points though.

I wish that total was in the 180x ish. I would luv to ride the under as well but when it is in the 170ish, I'm skittish. LOL

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 05:54 PM

No 7pm mlb plays and probably no mlb plays at all today. My only true lean was oakland ml, but I missed it because of a meeting at work. That play might lose anyway.

Rather ugly mlb card today in general, so we will stick to our nba plays and trust they will bring the profit home. Bol tonight.

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 06:30 PM

I highly recommend you listen to tonights national anthem in the bulls game. Jim Cornelison, who performs perhaps the best rendition of all time, will be singing tonight. Enjoy...

lurk · 05-02-11, 06:50 PM

LTA, not to clutter up your thread, but I wanted to stop in and thank you for your posts (especially the detailed write ups). I've been lurking around this board for a couple weeks, looking for new information/different views on games, not picks. I just wanted to say that your write ups are great, and you've really been doing a number on those nba totals with a few bad breaks here and there. Keep it up and thanks again for putting the time in to share your write ups.

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Adding .5x for total of 2.5x on Bulls/hawks under at 178.5.

Adding .5x on under at (178) (-120) for total of 3 units (2.5x at 178.5 & .5x at 178) Good luck...

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by lurk

LTA, not to clutter up your thread, but I wanted to stop in and thank you for your posts (especially the detailed write ups). I've been lurking around this board for a couple weeks, looking for new information/different views on games, not picks. I just wanted to say that your write ups are great, and you've really been doing a number on those nba totals with a few bad breaks here and there. Keep it up and thanks again for putting the time in to share your write ups.

No problem...stop by anytime..

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 07:39 PM

Hawks shoot 57% in the first quarter putting both teams at a collective shooting percentage over 50%. However, because the pace is relatively ok, this under is still easily in range. However, we will need the hawks to cool off.

hawley · 05-02-11, 07:40 PM

Thibs needs to get the bulls locking down on D

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 08:19 PM

Awesome shooting performance at 58% for the hawks. Bulls shooting 50% from three, yet it wasnt until the last couple minutes of the second quarter that the pace started to get out of hand. We need a 30 point quarter and some tougher defense to put this right back in play. I think Thibs gets after these guys at half. Regardless, I am confident that we win a big play or two on the under in this series.

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 09:26 PM

Although, we lost tonight, there are some good things to come out of this game in that we know the hawks will not shoot this well on thursday. Joe johnson has not even missed a shot from three. My biggest play of the year may be on game 2
under. There is slim chance either team shoots well in the next game.

Love The Action · 05-02-11, 09:43 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Lakers/Dallas Summary

The under here is a risky play and I can't support it as strongly as I could some of my other plays. Nevertheless, I like the under here based on the pace of these two teams in the playoffs and their commitment to defense. These two teams know defense will win this series and I expect a much slower pace than the regular season games.

In the regular season, these two teams played three times and went over two of those three games. These two teams played a fast pace and shot well when they played each other. In addition, most of the trends point to the over. However, I just don't think these veteran teams play the same type of game in the playoffs. I think they D-up and slow down the pace. I don't see these teams shooting over 50% on a regular basis like the regular season.

I think you will see a good adversary for Bynum with Chandler. Both these teams know each other well, and I think that knowledge helps out on the defensive end rather than the offensive end.

I admit that the regular season results of this matchup don't support the under in this game, yet we had a dip in the line despite 60% of all bets on the over.

I will probably not play this for more than 1 unit, but I expect the under to cash in this first game. Good luck.

Adding 2.5x for a total of 3.5x on the under in Lakers/Mavs

With a bunch of big plays coming up in these upcoming game 2's, I'm going to play aggressive in this spot. I suspect we'll see the first opening game under here.

This should be a fun week. I just don't see any way that that Heat/Celtics game or the Bulls/Atlanta game go over in game 2. Those shooting performances were so far beyond their average, that a reversion to the mean is very likely to occur. And I'm willing to bet big on that.

nickos86 · 05-02-11, 11:00 PM

Jason Terry is an over machine. Points come tumbling in when he is on the floor.
At least my Terry player prop looks like it will hedge my under if he keeps this crap up.
Plenty of time as always.

chevy6 · 05-03-11, 12:42 AM

we will rebound tuesday

NBA_Brosuf · 05-03-11, 12:52 AM

See, that is the reason why I tend not to play these game 1. We just don't know how well they perform each other to really make a prediction. We can't just use regular season stats for the playoff because they are a tad off.

I think I'm riding with you on ATL 2nd game and I have a feeling that your write up will be the same as mine since I took some of your tips for my own capping total abilities. Your logic makes sense thus why I'm adopting it.

I will throw in a pop quiz (if any) to see if there is anything else missing from your write up. When I do so, it doesn't mean I'm betting the other side. It just my way of finding answers to such trivia. Hope I can do such a thing.

Lets beat them bookies on the next one.

Love The Action · 05-03-11, 06:11 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA

Atl/Chi Under (178.5) 3x (Locked) LOSS

Dal/LAL Under (188.5) 3.5x (Locked) LOSS

NBA 5/2/11
0 - 2 -7.2 units

In this thread: 1 - 3 -9.5 units

A rough 2 point loss on the under in the Lakers/Dallas game. Those 4 BS free throws at the end of the first half ended up costing us a profitable day with the under in that game. You add that to the out-of-this-world shooting performance by Atlanta over the Bulls, and I think you see these opening game results will be an aberration and not the norm. Oh well, win some close ones, lose some close ones. That's just the way it goes and you need to keep a level head.

If you have followed me in my other threads, you know that we are up more than 35 units since the start of the playoffs. Therefore, the opening games of the second round have dented our overall playoff profit, but we will come back strong tonight and we're not hurting by any means. I am very excited about Tuesday night's games. We will have two big plays that I am very, very confident about. Good luck!