Curious Season Thread

[curious]

how many units do you have in your bankroll? I always just went by the old standard of 100-200 but your system seems pretty good too

I have a large bankroll. 200 units is ridiculous, that means that 1 unit is 1/2 of 1%. That is way too high.

Your top play should be no more than 1 or 2% of bank, that means a "oh well, what the heck we will try it" play should be 1/10th of 1% of bank.

I know, most people cannot do this, but find a way to win consistently and build the bank up till you reach the point where you can do this. Then you don't have to worry if you have a bad day.

This is why i can lose 20 or 30 units and laugh about it.

[curious]

Wed, Jan 19 NBA games

Cleveland +7 1.1 to win 1
Utah -260 5.2 to win 2
Milwaukee -285 14.25 to win 5
New Orleans -165 8.25 to win 5
Knicks +3 -110 1.1 to win 1
Lakers -150 1.5 to win 1
Denver -150 3 to win 2
Sacramento +2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Clippers -300 15 to win 5
Golden State -170 5.1 to win 3

Parlay -385 54 to win 14
Boston -900
San Antonio -750

[curious]

why would you double on late games if you lose early games. You do not have an increased chance to hit late plays because the early plays lost, you have the same chance still. i.e. if you flip a coin ten time and get heads tens time in a row, the odds of getting heads on the next toss is 50%. You might as well double up on every 3rd game randomly etc if your going to do that.

This is what I quoted the guy as saying and he claimed he never said it. Crackhead.

[curious]

Serious question about NBA teams

Why would a professional NBA team play very well at home and totally suck on the road. I just don't get it. I do the best that I can in anything I do every day.

When I was 16/17 the high school baseball coach badgered the crap out of me to play on the high school team because the coach saw me hitting in a pick up game where the high school team usually practices. I didn't really want to do it but I figured I could meet hot girls that way.

Whether I was playing at home or on the road I went up to the plate every time determined to smash the crap out of the ball and get an extra base hit.

How can professional NBA players who are making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars a year not have the same attitude?

[curious]

I just looked back over the NBA games this year. Every time there was a very short day, only a few games, I got killed. Its like one of the teams was just fooling around. I am thinking just to take the day off on these short days from now on.

I don't get it.

[spippen]

The Bulls almost pulled out the win at the end, but Chi never should have let that game be that close, way too many turnovers. It was like they looked past this CHA team.

[curious]

NCAAB Wed Jan 19

Well, we had a bad day in NBA on Tue, let's make it up.

Okay, here is what I am going to do. I am taking all of these plays on the ML, the wager will be to win the line x -1 /100. So, if the line is -700 the wager will be to win 7, if the line is -300 the wager will be to win 3. I know the crackheads are going to come in here and argue with me about this. Screw those idiots.

After the ML plays, we are going to take all these teams for 2 pick parlays, the amount to win will be the sum of the single game bets on each of the two teams. So, if I have one team at -700 and one team at -300 then that is a 2 pick parlay to win 10 units.

Then, I am going to set up 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 pick parlays always to win the same amount as the highest payout 2 pick parlay or or whatever the minimum bet is on that type of play if the first amount is below the minimum bet size.

Anyway, you have to risk a lot less on a 9 pick parlay than on a 2 pick parlay OBVIOUSLY.

It is going to take a little while to type up all this crap because I can find NO online book that lets you make a large number of parlays like this all to win the same amount, you have to risk the same amount which is IGNORANT.

I always win a lot at college baskets, like the other day I won 3 units on 51 plays. WOOOO HOOOOO.

Ohio State ML
Louisville ML
Central Florida ML
Hofstra ML
Old Dominion ML
West Michigan ML
Boston College ML
Richmond ML
Georgia Tech ML
Duke ML
VCU ML
Temple ML
W Va ML
Wichita State ML
Creighton ML
UAB ML
Purdue ML
George Mason ML
Vanderbilt ML
San Diego State ML
UNLV ML
St. Mary's ML

[curious]

The Bulls almost pulled out the win at the end, but Chi never should have let that game be that close, way too many turnovers. It was like they looked past this CHA team.

I analyzed the games on these short number of games days and I always lose on days like this. I think I am going to start staying away from short days.

I am putting together a college parlay to make up for it. Lots of good college games tomorrow.

I hope that you played my 4 pick college parlay today. It is going to hit. WOOOO HOOOOO

[spippen]

today played Bulls -350, Hawks +3 1st half, Alabama +5, Alabama +165. Not a disaster, but wish Korver took off his dress and slammed that rim rather than appear to try and put it up soft, then Rose so close hitting the front of the rim.

I almost took Northwestern at -320 but backed off. I recall a post in this thread by someone saying Michigan was a strong play, yet you were on Northwestern and this is your thread. GL Wednesday!

[BetterBizness]

Why would a professional NBA team play very well at home and totally suck on the road. I just don't get it. I do the best that I can in anything I do every day.

When I was 16/17 the high school baseball coach badgered the crap out of me to play on the high school team because the coach saw me hitting in a pick up game where the high school team usually practices. I didn't really want to do it but I figured I could meet hot girls that way.

Whether I was playing at home or on the road I went up to the plate every time determined to smash the crap out of the ball and get an extra base hit.

How can professional NBA players who are making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars a year not have the same attitude?

I am a high school Basketball coach and I will say that even at our level playing "THERE" is always an issue... You are never in your comfort zone for starters... I would say that for us its the immediate travel time to go anywhere that isn't our gym and then warm up and go brings a certain psychological disadvantage.. also the fans are extremely close, unlike other sports where glass... a track... a dugout seperates them... Basketball you can hear the people in the first row think... sucks when they are against you no matter how you try and tune them out... and of course, what most people consider the #1 reason, definitely plays a role.. How "Your" court plays.. the bounces.. the dead spots, the rims.. you've practiced on "your" rims everyday, now you have to go to another gym where it's the same 10 ft rim of course, but maybe a little tighter cylinder... maybe the siteline from the baseline has a light that is a little extra bright... Maybe the gym itself is a little bit narrow and the three point line is a step closer to the sideline...

Just some random thoughts to the discussion... As I've also very much wondered this myself also...

[Wayne]

I have a large bankroll. 200 units is ridiculous, that means that 1 unit is 1/2 of 1%. That is way too high.

Your top play should be no more than 1 or 2% of bank, that means a "oh well, what the heck we will try it" play should be 1/10th of 1% of bank.

I know, most people cannot do this, but find a way to win consistently and build the bank up till you reach the point where you can do this. Then you don't have to worry if you have a bad day.
This is why i can lose 20 or 30 units and laugh about it.

And all this time I thought you "worked" for your bankroll!

[tenbas]

I have a large bankroll. 200 units is ridiculous, that means that 1 unit is 1/2 of 1%. That is way too high.

Your top play should be no more than 1 or 2% of bank, that means a "oh well, what the heck we will try it" play should be 1/10th of 1% of bank.

I know, most people cannot do this, but find a way to win consistently and build the bank up till you reach the point where you can do this. Then you don't have to worry if you have a bad day.

This is why i can lose 20 or 30 units and laugh about it.

Finally someone who has some sense on his bankroll... I always try to tell people that 2% of bankroll per play is TOO DAMN BIG. But nooo, those people then have bad weeks any lose up to 25% of entire bankroll.
Some "pros" even tell people that 5% is acceptable. "crackheads"

Keep up the good work and thanks for all the useful information. I just wish some people would listen more to some of your advices...

[curious]

today played Bulls -350, Hawks +3 1st half, Alabama +5, Alabama +165. Not a disaster, but wish Korver took off his dress and slammed that rim rather than appear to try and put it up soft, then Rose so close hitting the front of the rim.

I almost took Northwestern at -320 but backed off. I recall a post in this thread by someone saying Michigan was a strong play, yet you were on Northwestern and this is your thread. GL Wednesday!

I never said that. Why would you believe some crackhead? I had Northwestern in a 4 pick parlay which won.

[curious]

I am a high school Basketball coach and I will say that even at our level playing "THERE" is always an issue... You are never in your comfort zone for starters... I would say that for us its the immediate travel time to go anywhere that isn't our gym and then warm up and go brings a certain psychological disadvantage.. also the fans are extremely close, unlike other sports where glass... a track... a dugout seperates them... Basketball you can hear the people in the first row think... sucks when they are against you no matter how you try and tune them out... and of course, what most people consider the #1 reason, definitely plays a role.. How "Your" court plays.. the bounces.. the dead spots, the rims.. you've practiced on "your" rims everyday, now you have to go to another gym where it's the same 10 ft rim of course, but maybe a little tighter cylinder... maybe the siteline from the baseline has a light that is a little extra bright... Maybe the gym itself is a little bit narrow and the three point line is a step closer to the sideline...

Just some random thoughts to the discussion... As I've also very much wondered this myself also...

Baseball is very different in regard to home vs away. The crowd is fairly distant from the field. Cheering can get loud sometimes but nothing like a basketball court. The field can matter when hitting, like if the distance down the 1st base line to the wall is very short and you normally hit to left field or down the 3rd base line but I never had a problem adjusting to this. I would just bat left handed and smash the ball down the first base line. Or, shift my stance if batting right handed and smash the ball down the first base line.

So, maybe there is a difference in home field advantage in basketball that does not occur in baseball.

One thing I did notice though, when you are at the visitor field the ability to find women is soooooo much higher than at home. Because the women at home know that you are dating so and so and the women on the road don't know that, if you are smart and you make the home town girl stay home when you are on the road.

[curious]

And all this time I thought you "worked" for your bankroll!

No, I built my bankroll up from an initial $1000 deposit made 4 years ago. I posted the growth of the bankroll on line on SBR until it reached 4 figures, then I stopped tracking the bankroll growth online. My wife would have a nervous breakdown if I took my income and used it for sports betting. She calls it gambling and thinks that it is just like playing roulette or craps.

I will admit though that I was very lucky in the beginning. My first set of wagers in baseball I was all in and had to go in pocket for another $1,000. And all of those plays won. So, after the first weekend I was sitting at $4,000. And I was following a capper who had the best single season in any sport that I have ever seen. I was very lucky because this capper went ice cold right after that and he never recovered. So, I had to stop following him and learn how to cap myself.

[curious]

Wed, Jan 19 NCAAB

The Greek has lines up for most of these. I am going to guess on lines that are missing, if I need to I will update them later. I only put the x2 round robin, to do all the round robins (x2 thru x15) the bet size was too large for most people.

The total number of units here is fairly large. My bet size is 1 unit is a fraction of 1% of bank. If your bet size is 1 unit is 1% or more of bank then you cannot bet like this.

Most people cannot play these plays this way because they cannot put 600 units at risk, that would be 600% of their bank. 600 units is a small % of my bank. It took me playing multiple sports plus horse racing pretty much full time over 4 years to build a bank like this. So, please don't come in here talking trash about my bank size or unit size, I worked very hard on sports betting over a long period of time to get to this level. You can do it to, it just takes dedication and working multiple jobs to have the income level you need. I also have a consulting income so that I do not have to take money out of sports betting winnings to live on. I also have a wife who will put up with this.

If you want to get to this level you have to know how to win and you have to work enough jobs that you can dedicate a bankroll to sports betting and let it build over time. And you have to play enough different sports to that you always have action. You can also break a day into time slots, I used to do this. I don't do it any more. In college basketball you have noon games, then early PM games, then mid day games, then night games. I used to imagine that these were separate days so that I could roll the bank roll over after each set of games was complete. Its tough and you have to win more often than you lose, but it is possible. I did it.

Single bets

Ohio State -750 ML 52.5 to win 7
Louisville ML -300 ML 12 to win 4
Central Florida -800 ML 72 to win 9
Hofstra -335 ML 13.4 to win 4
Old Dominion -380 ML 9.5 to win 2.5
West Michigan -440 ML 4.4 to win 1
Boston College -475 ML 19 to win 4
Richmond -1100 ML 22 to win 2
Georgia Tech -1200 ML 72 to win 6
Duke -600 ML 42 to win 7
VCU -800 ML 48 to win 6
W Va -650 ML 26 to win 4
Wichita State ML -380 17.1 to win 4.5
Creighton ML -550 ML 33 to win 6
UAB -1300 ML 71.5 to win 5.5
Purdue -1100 ML 71.5 to win 6.5
George Mason -380 ML 17.1 to win 4.5
Vanderbilt -700 ML 42 to win 6
UNLV -850 ML 34 to win 4

No lines on these yet, I am going to peg them at -1000 for now
San Diego State ML 70 to win 7
Temple ML 60 to win 6 units
St. Mary's ML 90 to win 9 units

2x Round Robin (these are for all games, I am leaving out San Diego State, Temple, and St. Marys because I don't know what the lines will be, I will add them later by setting up round robins of San Diego State, Temple, and St. Marys over all the others if the lines are reasonable, if not I will leave them out).

I was going to do 3x thru 15x round robins but the unit size is too large and I don't want to argue with the idiots who will come in here and try to figure out what size my bank is.

Most books stop you at 15 picks for a round robin. I left out the biggest lines to get 15 plays.

Round Robin x2 178 units to win 78 units (notional bet is 1.7 units)
Ohio State -750 ML
Louisville ML -300 ML
Central Florida -800 ML
Hofstra -335 ML
Old Dominion -380 ML
West Michigan -440 ML
Boston College -475 ML
Duke -600 ML
VCU -800 ML
W Va -650 ML
Wichita State -380 ML
Creighton ML -550 ML
George Mason -380 ML
Vanderbilt -700 ML
UNLV -850 ML

[curious]

Finally someone who has some sense on his bankroll... I always try to tell people that 2% of bankroll per play is TOO DAMN BIG. But nooo, those people then have bad weeks any lose up to 25% of entire bankroll.
Some "pros" even tell people that 5% is acceptable. "crackheads"

Keep up the good work and thanks for all the useful information. I just wish some people would listen more to some of your advices...

The only way that I would tell someone that they can risk 5% of bank is if their bankroll was very small and they were trying to grow it and I had some kind of inside information on the play or else the line was so far off that I viewed the play as being an extremely positive bet, like when Maryland was a big dog for two games in a row a few years ago.

Usually if someone's bankroll is so small I tell them to get off the internet and get a second job and put all their extra money into savings until they build a decent bankroll.

[SpreadSniper]

I never said that. Why would you believe some crackhead? I had Northwestern in a 4 pick parlay which won.

- thanks for the winner you old crackhead.

[curious]

YTD record NBA sides (and a few NCAAB)

Sometimes I play a few NCAAB sides to offset a dearth of NBA sides or to lower risk. Sometimes you can find NCAAB games that have very low risk. I am counting these few games along with NBA because I was playing a complete card that day to balance the risk.

I play almost every NCAAB game every day, so I am not posting all that stuff in here.

Sometimes I put large money lines in parlays together to lower the risk. These are played in place of just playing the side. I counted these parlays and I counted the win/loss of all the teams involved. I only had a few of these and I made it clear that if you were playing these teams to use the parlay not the individual games.

This is for full games only, not Qs and Hs or totals. I get the totals from someone else, so I don't feel like I can count them. They are up very good.

179-76 +159.98 units win/loss ratio is 70.9%

I think this averages about 2 units per winning play. That isn't too bad.

Not too shabby.

I did not put Q and Hs or NFL in this record. I won over 100 units in NFL on a handful of plays. I think Qs and Hs as posted are up a little but I play a large number of Q and H plays that I don't post because most people cannot play them, so I am going to leave them out unless someone can give me a couple of books that offer money line Qs and Hs on all quarters that most people here can get to and use. The places that I play these are off the beaten path.

I will keep posting this game record along with my plays since some crackheads came in here talking smack about the fact that I was not posting the record.

Who wants to bet that some of these same crackheads come in here and talk smack about the record itself?

[curious]

YTD record NBA sides

179-76 +159.98 units win/loss ratio is 70.9%

Read the previous post for an explanation if you care about such things.

[curious]

Wed Jan 19 NBA games add 1 game

Cleveland +7 1.1 to win 1
Utah -260 5.2 to win 2
Milwaukee -285 14.25 to win 5
New Orleans -165 8.25 to win 5
Knicks +3 -110 1.1 to win 1
Lakers -150 1.5 to win 1
Denver -150 3 to win 2
Sacramento +2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Clippers -300 15 to win 5
Golden State -170 5.1 to win 3

Parlay -385 54 to win 14
Boston -900
San Antonio -750

Adding Orlando -440 22 units to win 5 units

[curious]

Note on today's NCAAB games

Once in a while I put a parlay of a few NCAAB games into a set of NBA plays if there are a short number of NBA plays and I am hedging risk. I count these games in the NBA record. There aren't that many of these this year.

Once in a while I post an entire NCAAB thread which will have a lot of games. I don't count them on the NBA record.

I play every NCAAB game (pretty much) and almost all the halves. I don't have time to post all that mess. I occasionally post a big NCAAB ticket just because.

Please don't give me grief over this.

[spippen]

I never said that. Why would you believe some crackhead? I had Northwestern in a 4 pick parlay which won.

Nope, I never said you said that. I said someone else posted in your thread that Michigan was a strong play, even though you had Northwestern. Hey, why do people have to come into other peoples threads and disagree with the picks posted, or give their points on why they like the other team anyways. I think if you visit someones thread and you disagree with the pick then move on. No need for people to constantly say "oh, geez, I see you have the Celtics, but I like the Knicks because they need this game". GL.

[spippen]

Cleveland +7 1.1 to win 1
Utah -260 5.2 to win 2
Milwaukee -285 14.25 to win 5
New Orleans -165 8.25 to win 5
Knicks +3 -110 1.1 to win 1
Lakers -150 1.5 to win 1
Denver -150 3 to win 2
Sacramento +2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Clippers -300 15 to win 5
Golden State -170 5.1 to win 3

Parlay -385 54 to win 14
Boston -900
San Antonio -750

Adding Orlando -440 22 units to win 5 units

Bravo!

[curious]

Nope, I never said you said that. I said someone else posted in your thread that Michigan was a strong play, even though you had Northwestern. Hey, why do people have to come into other peoples threads and disagree with the picks posted, or give their points on why they like the other team anyways. I think if you visit someones thread and you disagree with the pick then move on. No need for people to constantly say "oh, geez, I see you have the Celtics, but I like the Knicks because they need this game". GL.

If someone gave an in depth analysis of the game to show why I was wrong, I might take the dog + the points and hope to get a middle. There are one or two people who have done that. But most people just say they like a pick because.

Oh, and the one person that gave real details won every single game he said I was wrong on. LOL

[SpreadSniper]

gimme one home dog for ncaab that you like tonight curious....

[curious]

gimme one home dog for ncaab that you like tonight curious....

I'll do better. I'll tell you how to figure it out for yourself. Go to kenpom's site. www.kenpom.com. Then match up any game you want using the strength of schedule Pyth statistic. What you want is a team that should be a mid size negative number which is a mid size postive number.

Should only take you four or five hours. When you find one, post it in here so we can all play it.

[Lets go out]

Thanks for all the hard work....And the $$

[Dutch]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3Rn449IDNc

Lady in the lake by Elysian Fields

This band grows on you.

Check these guys out, you might have heard of them...I saw 'em open for Metallica last year. I had never heard of them and almost didn't bother to show up early enough to see them play, they were badass..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9KbmRTgigQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL7ndxWgW5A&feature=channel

[curious]

gimme one home dog for ncaab that you like tonight curious....

I didn't have a lot of time to look for a dog. I kind of like Utah. Utah +5 and Utah +190. Kenpom likes Utah too.

I think you can find a much better game than this, I didn't have a lot of time to look. New Mexico only 1 one game on the road ATS. It seems like New Mexico doesn't take road games seriously or something. Utah seems fairly good when everything is clicking. I wouldn't mind taking a small play on this, say Utah ML 1 to win 1.9 and Utah +5 -110 2.2 to win 2.

I think you can get a better line than +190 though. Maybe wait till right before game time?

[SpreadSniper]

I'll do better. I'll tell you how to figure it out for yourself. Go to kenpom's site. www.kenpom.com. Then match up any game you want using the strength of schedule Pyth statistic. What you want is a team that should be a mid size negative number which is a mid size postive number.

Should only take you four or five hours. When you find one, post it in here so we can all play it.

So I looked over the site briefly and don't totally understand this part....

"What you want is a team that should be a mid size negative number which is a mid size postive number."

Think ima have to read over the entire "help" section... Im obviously supposed to derive data from the given numbers... but not sure how I do that or rate team a vs team b

[curious]

So I looked over the site briefly and don't totally understand this part....

"What you want is a team that should be a mid size negative number which is a mid size postive number."

Think ima have to read over the entire "help" section... Im obviously supposed to derive data from the given numbers... but not sure how I do that or rate team a vs team b

I'm sorry that I was not more help. I will use an example. I think it was two years ago, or maybe last year, Maryland was a big dog, +10. According to kenpom's number, Maryland was something like .820. The team that they were playing was something like .540. I was like WTF? Since Maryland's kenpom number was higher than the team that they were playing and Maryland was on the road, Maryland should have been the fav, but they were GETTING 10 points. I took that game on the money line, I didn't even bother with the spread.

So, what you want to do is look at the lines, I would start with medium size to double digit dogs at home and look at their kenpom number and compare that to the visiting team kenpom number. If you find one where the home dog has a larger kenpom number than the visiting fav the you have struck gold.

If you still can't figure it out let me know and I will analyze a couple of games and post how you do it in here. and if you win you can mail me a check.

[curious]

Spreadsniper, check out NC State

Spreadsniper, this looks like it might be good

Duke @ NC State NC State +11 but I think you can get it higher than that, especially if you wait till right before game time.

Duke has lost their last 3 games and NC State seems to be tough at home.

I would check out naked pictures of the NC State cheerleaders just to be sure.

[SpreadSniper]

Im just not familiar with all the acronyms being used.... I see multiple "pyth" categories so.... not sure what is what quite yet.... thats what I need to read.

eg) Duquesne @ Lasalle
44 Duquesne A10 11-5 .8936 108.8 63 90.4 33 71.7 30 -.114 333 .5479 119 102.5 105 100.8 166 .5129 184159
La Salle A10 8-10 .5072 105.4 97 105.2 240 71.5 32 -.048 275 .5414 126 102.7 94 101.3 206 .5180 175

I think im over complicating it some how

[curious]

I think im over complicating it some how

You are.

Go to www.kenpom.com and look at the headings at the top.

See where it says: "Strength of Schedule"?

Just below that it says: "Pyth" "Oppo" "OppD".

This Pyth number is adjusted for how good/bad the teams are that the team has been playing. It is one thing to beat the top 10 teams in NCAAB, it is quite another to beat teams like Centenary, Chicago State, Grambling. A team could be 10-0 against this bottom of the barrel junk and be ranked lower than a team that is 0-10 but has been playing Duke, Kansas, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and holding them close.

Let me know if you still cannot find it.