Curious Season Thread

[curious]

haha....thought so. well im still relatively young, i enjoy it. Its a world sound man...

I am young, I am 53. VERY young.

[LtDementia]

Hey curious -

I really appreciate you taking the time to explain how you handicap - It should get people thinking. I'm sorta new at this and have question about sizing your moneyline bets. In a previous post you described it in detail, but I'm trying to see how you would apply it to 2 team parlays.

If I crank the data for two teams thru my trusty calculator and come up with a unit sizes of 1.8 and 5.1, what would I use for the parlay units?? I'm assuming the sum of the two?


Thanks


LT

[curious]

Hey curious -

I really appreciate you taking the time to explain how you handicap - It should get people thinking. I'm sorta new at this and have question about sizing your moneyline bets. In a previous post you described it in detail, but I'm trying to see how you would apply it to 2 team parlays.

If I crank the data for two teams thru my trusty calculator and come up with a unit sizes of 1.8 and 5.1, what would I use for the parlay units?? I'm assuming the sum of the two?


Thanks


LT

I really dislike parlays.

But, you are correct. If you have one team at 5.1 and one team at 1.8 then your parlay would be risking 6.9 if it was + odds and to win 6.9 if it was - odds. But, I would say you are crazy to put a 1.8 team into a parlay with a 6.9 team. The odds that the 1.8 team will win are too close. What kills you is if the 1.8 team loses and the 6.9 team wins.

Stay away from parlays unless you have some huge line like -2000 that you are trying to get more into orbit. BUT make sure that the other team has a large per centage to win. Like -500 and you know that their latest streak is great and their opponents latest streak is terrible.

Over a season, if you play lots of plays you are much better off to play only straight bets and leave parlays alone. I know I do play parlays once in a while but I don't recommend them.

[curious]

Sunday, Jan 16 NBA additional play

The Lakers lost, of course. I hate that stupid team.

Let's double up on the Spurs so that they will lose.

Spurs -300 ML 18 to win 6

This is in addition to the earlier Spurs play.

[curious]

Parlay hey hey

Parlay -185 11.1 to win 6

Montana State -825 ML
Mississippi State -550 ML
Minnesota -600 ML

Okay, Montana State and Mississippi State won. Let's go Minnesota. WOOO HOOO. I don't even know where that is.

[sweetjones55]

[B]

- Teams losing their 1st game back have gone on to win their 2nd game back at only a 29.0% ATS rate

Suns is the play then according to this tomorrow?

[curious]

Mon, Jan 17

Look at the results of the early games and if any of these lose then increase the play on the later games. If I have time I will update the plays to reflect this. I did this today when the early play lost, I doubled up the late play which is looking good.

1:00 PM Utah -165 1.65 to win 1
1:00 PM New York -280 5.6 to win 2
1:00 PM Memphis 2 units (risk 2 if Memphis is a dog, risk enough to win 2 if a fav)
2:00 PM Philly -220 7.7 to win 3.5
3:00 PM New Orleans -400 20 to win 5
3:00 PM Houston -200 4 to win 2
3:30 PM Clippers -135 1.35 to win 1
3:30 PM Detroit +5 -110 2.2 to win 2
4:00 PM Atlanta -330 16.5 to win 5
4:00 PM Golden State -330 14.85 to win 4.5
8:00 PM Boston 3 (risk 3 if Memphis is a dog, risk enough to win 3 if a fav)
10:00 PM Portland 6 (risk 6 if Portland is a dog, risk enough to win 6 if a fav)
10:30 PM Lakers 1 (risk 1 if Lakers are a dog, risk enough to win 1 if a fav)

[curious]

Suns is the play then according to this tomorrow?

Please post your plays in your own thread. That is not a play that I am backing. I have the Knicks on the money line.

[curious]

Parlay hey hey

Parlay -185 11.1 to win 6

Montana State -825 ML
Mississippi State -550 ML
Minnesota -600 ML

Win +6

[sweetjones55]

Please post your plays in your own thread. That is not a play that I am backing. I have the Knicks on the money line.

Suns is not my play either. I am asking the guy who posted the stats if Suns is the play and falls into that system play that hits 71% according to him.

[curious]

Suns is not my play either. I am asking the guy who posted the stats if Suns is the play and falls into that system play that hits 71% according to him.

According to what he said, it would be. I don't trust this number because I ran some stats and my numbers don't agree with this. Unless I did it wrong somehow. We'll see I guess.

[curious]

The Lakers lost, of course. I hate that stupid team.

Let's double up on the Spurs so that they will lose.

Spurs -300 ML 18 to win 6

This is in addition to the earlier Spurs play.

Win +6

[curious]

Lakers -225 ML 5.625 to win 2.5 Loss -5.625
San Antonio -300 ML 18 to win 6 Win +6

Bump

Adding a Q and a H play
1st Q
San Antonio -2 -110 2.2 to win 2 Loss -2.2

1st H
San Antonio -4 -110 2.2 to win 2 Win +2

2-2 +.2

Well, if you bet $100,000 on these then you made $200. WOOO HOOO

[curious]

Sun Jan 16 basketball results

There are several posts, so I am summarizing them so I can figure out what we did in basketball.

NCAAB
Parlay -185 11.1 to win 6 Win +6

Montana State -825 ML
Mississippi State -550 ML
Minnesota -600 ML

NBA
Lakers -225 ML 5.625 to win 2.5 Loss -5.625
San Antonio -300 ML 18 to win 6 Win +6

Later NBA play, doubled up on San Antonio
San Antonio -300 ML 18 to win 6 Win +6

Q and H
1st Q
San Antonio -2 -110 2.2 to win 2 Loss -2.2

1st H
San Antonio -4 -110 2.2 to win 2 Win +2

5-2 +12.2

[Dutch]

My favorite album.

Black Sabbath's first album.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnD3VbjACTM&feature=related

Behind the wall of sleep / NIB

Points for this one.

I'm going to see Ozzy on Valentines day in Moline, Il.

[A's Fan]

glgl

[dvb02]

Go get em Curious!!

[curious]

Look at the results of the early games and if any of these lose then increase the play on the later games. If I have time I will update the plays to reflect this. I did this today when the early play lost, I doubled up the late play which is looking good.

1:00 PM Utah -165 1.65 to win 1
1:00 PM New York -280 5.6 to win 2
1:00 PM Memphis 2 units (risk 2 if Memphis is a dog, risk enough to win 2 if a fav)
2:00 PM Philly -220 7.7 to win 3.5
3:00 PM New Orleans -400 20 to win 5
3:00 PM Houston -200 4 to win 2
3:30 PM Clippers -135 1.35 to win 1
3:30 PM Detroit +5 -110 2.2 to win 2
4:00 PM Atlanta -330 16.5 to win 5
4:00 PM Golden State -330 14.85 to win 4.5
8:00 PM Boston 3 (risk 3 if Memphis is a dog, risk enough to win 3 if a fav)
10:00 PM Portland 6 (risk 6 if Portland is a dog, risk enough to win 6 if a fav)
10:30 PM Lakers 1 (risk 1 if Lakers are a dog, risk enough to win 1 if a fav)

bump bump bump

[curious]

1st Quarter Records YTD

I counted a Tie as a Loss.
Stat = win / (win + loss)
I cannot find a source for spreads in quarter plays, so this might be different if we added points to the dogs.

Team Win Loss Stat
Lakers 27 15 0.64
Celtics 24 15 0.62
Mavericks 24 15 0.62
Hawks 25 16 0.61
Clippers 23 16 0.59
Trail Blazers 24 17 0.59
Magic 23 17 0.58
Heat 23 19 0.55
Bulls 21 19 0.53
Nuggets 21 19 0.53
Philly 20 19 0.51
Spurs 20 21 0.49
Bucks 18 19 0.49
Grizzlies 19 21 0.48
Kings 18 20 0.47
Hornets 19 22 0.46
Rockets 19 22 0.46
Pistons 18 22 0.45
Thunder 18 22 0.45
Wizards 17 21 0.45
Knicks 17 22 0.44
Bobcats 16 22 0.42
Suns 15 23 0.39
Warriors 15 23 0.39
Timberwolves 16 25 0.39
Pacers 13 24 0.35
Toronto 14 26 0.35
Cavaliers 14 26 0.35
New Jersey 13 27 0.33
Jazz 10 30 0.25

[curious]

Mon, Jan 17 1st Q

Washington +1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Philly -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Houston -1 1/2 -110 to win 2
Clippers -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Dallas -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Atlanta -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Portland waiting for line
Lakers -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

If you can get 1st Q plays on the money line you are much better off playing favs on the money line, always play dogs + the points.

[sweetjones55]

Washington +1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Philly -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Houston -1 1/2 -110 to win 2
Clippers -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Dallas -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Atlanta -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2
Portland waiting for line
Lakers -1 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

If you can get 1st Q plays on the money line you are much better off playing favs on the money line, always play dogs + the points.

What books already have all of the 1Q lines up?

[curious]

today's song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3Rn449IDNc

Lady in the lake by Elysian Fields

This band grows on you.

[curious]

Late 1st Q line posted

Portland 1Q -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

[curious]

Updating late lines

1:00 PM Utah -165 1.65 to win 1
1:00 PM New York -280 5.6 to win 2
1:00 PM Memphis -195 3.9 to win 2 units
2:00 PM Philly -220 7.7 to win 3.5
3:00 PM New Orleans -400 20 to win 5
3:00 PM Houston -200 4 to win 2
3:30 PM Clippers -135 1.35 to win 1
3:30 PM Detroit +5 -110 2.2 to win 2
4:00 PM Atlanta -330 16.5 to win 5
4:00 PM Golden State -330 14.85 to win 4.5
8:00 PM Boston -150 4.5 to win 3
10:00 PM Portland -350 21 to win 6
10:30 PM Lakers -180 1.8 to win 1

[curious]

What books already have all of the 1Q lines up?

Not sure what you are talking about, I found these lines at multiple places.

Double checked the lines after the books that most of the crackheads on here use and I was a little bit higher on two plays, dead on on all the other plays.

[curious]

Why are modern scientists so ignorant?

I read a story today, yes I can read, about how some idiots are planning on using cloning to bring back the woolly mammoth.

Here is what one of these idiots said: ""After the mammoth is born, we will examine its ecology and genes to study why the species became extinct and other factors."

Now, what if the mammoth became extinct because of some communicable disease that can spread to relatives of the mammoth like the elephant or the mastodon and then the mastodons become extinct?

Crackheads.

[VegasPlayer]

Add Knicks to the crackhead team list. They've wiped out a very productive road trip by showing up stoned for the Kings and Suns.

[curious]

Well, my 1st quarter play went from one of the best things I do to being so far in the dirt I will never pull it out.

[curious]

Is today freaking dog day?

Every dog on the board winning or has already won. WTF?

[VegasPlayer]

Every dog on the board winning or has already won. WTF?

Lookin pretty ugly. Glad I'm going to work and don't have to sit through this crap.

[curious]

Tue, Jan 18

Miami -240 4.8 to win 2
Chicago -300 18 to win 6

These are early lines, if they are very different when some of the more major books post I will update them.

[LtDementia]

Portland 1Q -2 1/2 -110 2.2 to win 2

Thanks - I took the moneyline though... I read somewhere that it was the better choice-

LT

[curious]

Thanks - I took the moneyline though... I read somewhere that it was the better choice-

LT

Where did you hear advice like that? That's crazy.

Good win.

I hope that everyone took my advice to double up on the later games after those first 3 games lost. You had a great day if you did that.

[curious]

Mon Jan 17 NBA game results

1:00 PM Utah -165 1.65 to win 1 Loss -1.65
1:00 PM New York -280 5.6 to win 2 Loss -5.6
1:00 PM Memphis -195 3.9 to win 2 units Loss -3.9
2:00 PM Philly -220 7.7 to win 3.5 Win +3.5
3:00 PM New Orleans -400 20 to win 5 Win +5
3:00 PM Houston -200 4 to win 2 Win +2
3:30 PM Clippers -135 1.35 to win 1 Win +1
3:30 PM Detroit +5 -110 2.2 to win 2 Win +2
4:00 PM Atlanta -330 16.5 to win 5 Win +5
4:00 PM Golden State -330 14.85 to win 4.5 Win +4.5
8:00 PM Boston -150 4.5 to win 3 Win +3
10:00 PM Portland -350 21 to win 6 Win +6
10:30 PM Lakers -180 1.8 to win 1 Win +1

10-3 +21.5 Units

[curious]

I hope everyone doubled up on the later games

When I saw those 3 dogs lose at the beginning of the day I told everyone to double up on the late games. If you did that you won an extra 19 units. I know that if I put it in our record the crackheads will start complaining that I did not post those plays. Not sure why saying "double up on all the late games" is not a play. But, I am trying not to threaten people to kill them on here too often so I won't count those extra 19 units, just hoping that you guys LISTENED to me and made that profit.