scotts NBA system plays

[GGPLAYER]

ok........HTN +7-.....Port -1.....Den -8

I also have played JM this year and was burned twice ( I only buy 2 points). But I have been playing any team with 3 straight road games buying 2 points. Under my system GS is the play tonight BUT the line dropped from +9 to +5.5. NO Melo or Billups. Do you take into consideration injuries to impact players?

[scottel]

I am playing ON...Den and HTN..........against Mem so ON port

as for injuries, no....oddsmakers factor these things into the line...all these games were off the board this morn....up to each person to decide if an injury issue is enough to get them off of a play......to be honest I just play em blindly

[bsimp3021]

unreal just unreal
i dont know how much more of this i can take
screwed by a point or 2 so many times lately

[scottel]

I know the feeling.........broke down the opp con rd trips and mixed /same conf.........here is what I have so far

opp conf only (rd trip 3 games or more).....A...16-8-1.....B...5-4.....C....3-1.....25 series one loss (24-1)

mixed/same conf(same as above).............A....17-19-1......B....13-7....C.....3-4....37 series 4 losses(33-4)....since series loss is 8.26 units overall lost then so far the mixed same is slightly negative....suffered two series losses this last 3 days which hurts........anyway just putting this up as some may decide too risky for same /mixed conf and stick to opp conf only............will keep posting and tracking........showing 14 series for Jan for opp conf so plenty of action in that category

[scottel]

JAN 6

same or mixed conf

Atl -13- A bet
Bos NL A bet
Htn +5 C bet,,,,need this one badly

+500 on homestand (just started tracking recently)
OKC -5 A bet
Spurs -10 A bet
Phx -5 A bet......conflict with C on htn....would stick with Htn since C bet

no opposite conf plays today

[NJrookie]

What does A, B , C bet mean ?

[GGPLAYER]

Rough start for me here since I found this thread. I have yet to win a game. Although I did go against you on the Denver game. The injuries were key for me plus my 3 game chase of GS. Good luck with your system and I hope you can find a filter or two which can reduce your C loses.

[GGPLAYER]

JAN 6

same or mixed conf

Atl -13- A bet
Bos NL A bet
Htn +5 C bet,,,,need this one badly

+500 on homestand (just started tracking recently)
OKC -5 A bet
Spurs -10 A bet
Phx -5 A bet......conflict with C on htn....would stick with Htn since C bet

no opposite conf plays today

Just a thought on your Hou (C) and Pho (A) game. You could bet both. If Hou covers than you win your C money and only lose your A bet with Pho who you would then be moving onto a B bet anyways. If Pho happens to win then at least you would get something out of it.

[Seth_21887]

Lol, I started following this system right before Christmas...Yesterday I'm completely out on my bankroll, guess I jumped in at the wrong time. I also wasn't expecting 3 C system losses in the span of 2 weeks. Anyways next time I will use better money management and always expect the worse. I still am a fan of the system and hope it ends the season favorably. GL to all.

[scottel]

last yr it did well (opp conf) which is doing well this yr too......the same /mixed was doing well this yr so went with it....have no idea how it did last yr.....of the two best to follow only opp conf ......the same /mixed may turn we'll see........ a lot more series but cant afford lots of C losses

[scottel]

What does A, B , C bet mean ?

A is for first bet of series...B second, if needed and C last , if needed....3 game chase playing ON +500 team on 3 or more rd trip and AGAINST under 500 team on 3 or more rd trip

[scottel]

hindsight, but so far I noticed if u stopped mix /same conf after B bet its 30-7 on series which yields about 5 units net profit so far vs carrying to C bet on B loss

[joefunn]

im in the same boat, really been a bad streak. i follow you with the opp conference doing better. please clarify, for opp conference system uses the same critera but only use when teams are playing teams outside there conference ? you still use +500 or -500 and must be at least 3game road trip. do all teams on road trip have to be opp conf games ? give me an example of next opp conf play.
what system or systems are you going to play yourself from this point forward ?

[biblos]

hI GGPLAYER CAN YOU EXPLAIN HOW YOUR SYSTEM WORKS? yOU PLAY AGAINST 3 ROAD TRIP TEAMS? hOW IS YOUR SERIES RECORD?

[Speedy123]

Has been a rough week week for the system. I have been playing the JM system for a while with my personal tweaks to the money management aspect and also this system for a short time. I still have my reservations about the Martingale chase system. Have seen too many disasters with the system here in Las Vegas. Oh by the way, thanks everyone for your comments; Las Vegas is a great place to live. If you are a gambler you need to be stay focused and have the necessary discipline and unfortunately not a lot of people have these traits. (Thus these million dollar casinos)

Last several days have been running all kinds of scenarios looking for filters to make the system a little less risky. First I put together a worksheet for the full season of all three game home and away series. Any 6 games I count as two separate series starting at game 4 for the second series. I also inserted 3 columns showing what teams they were playing. Either A, B, or C. Also have a colum showing if it was an A, B, or C win or a C loss. Before I arrived at the stage determining the fade, cross conference etc. I noticed that the A wins are consistently outperforming the B and C. This is common knowledge with the JM systems although the % will very from season to season.

There have been a total of 125 series so far. There have been 74 A wins and 51 A losses for a winning ratio of .59. All other stats are irrelevant to what I am about to explain. Doesn't matter if B, C, won or loss.

If you started the season betting $110 to win $100 on the A game of each series you would now be up 17.9 units. ($1,790) At one point you would have been up $2,490 so there has been a drawdown from the high point.

To summarize:

1- Only flat betting, no chasing or fading.

2- Bet the first game of a three game series, win or loose you are thru with this series.

3- Does not matter if it is a three game home or road series.

4- Treat any 6 game home or road team as two separate series starting with game 4 for second series.

I am hoping the percentage of A wins will hold up for remaining season. To me it is worth investing a small trial unit. I am sure there are filters that will enhance performance and I invite anyone's help. I am starting with today. There are 5 series for today. BOS, NJN, OAK, PHO AND SAS. Have to go to casino to place wagers so will post the point spread when I return. Good luck everyone.

[Speedy123]

Back from making my bets. Since Phoenix and Houston play each other went with PHO.

My bets for today are:

PHO -4.5
SAS -10
BOS -1
OAK-4.5

I know this is not Scottel's system so don't want to clutter his thread or cause confusion so will not post anymore here unless invited. If anyone is interested in following could start another thread. Right now have to go to work so will check back late tonight. Good luck

[scottel]

Speedy, are u using the +/- 500 or just playing on ANY team on rd trip or homestand in A game...chk back later for your response

[scottel]

im in the same boat, really been a bad streak. i follow you with the opp conference doing better. please clarify, for opp conference system uses the same critera but only use when teams are playing teams outside there conference ? you still use +500 or -500 and must be at least 3game road trip. do all teams on road trip have to be opp conf games ? give me an example of next opp conf play.
what system or systems are you going to play yourself from this point forward ?

yes opp conf is east vs west or vice versa, no same conf games in rd trip....still use +/- 500 to decide if play ON or AGAINST......one coming up is Clev on Jan 8th , 1st game of rd trip, at least 3 games.........Clev over 500 so play ON Clev

probably just play opp conf for now...will keep tracking others and posting for any interested

[scottel]

Speedy , I noticed u left out ATL.. just curious why...thx

[GGPLAYER]

hI GGPLAYER CAN YOU EXPLAIN HOW YOUR SYSTEM WORKS? yOU PLAY AGAINST 3 ROAD TRIP TEAMS? hOW IS YOUR SERIES RECORD?

Well I should clear up that it's not really my system...just the way I play it. It's JM or what I think is called a Martingale chase system. Could be called something else. Any way I play a team on the road for 3 or more road games in a row. I don't care if it's East vs West or same conference, etc. I wait for the best line I think I can get and buy 2 points. If A game wins I'm done. If not you chase until your won your unit and the money put on on the other bets. But I took it a step further. I noticed that teams with more than 3 road games say 4-6 were still winning ATS after the first A win. As long as I have 3 games to chase I will play it. GS fell under that situation because they are on a 4 game trip. I won game A vs LAL. Then made the next game the series another A bet vs Port which lost. So last night I was on a B bet vs Denver which won.

I have one loss on the year but I have added a filter not to play on teams with key injuries. I bet Boston Christmas Day (1st of a 4 game trip) and they won vs Orl(A). Then they had 3 games in a row after that and I lost all 3. My C bet I should have not made because K. Garnett and Pierce were both out. I did not know about Garnett until after the game started. So couple with that C bet loss and the JM C bet loss of Hou last week I took a big hit. But I keep plugging.

So the way I chase I will also be playing Bos tonight and probably get them at +2 or +3. The line has moved to a PK and I will wait on it to see if it goes to +1.

There is also a play with NJ which also happens to be a JM Play but going forward I will avoid terrible teams like them. Espically since they are on a back-to-back.

Hope that helps and is not too confusing. I know there are a bunch of other guys doing it the same way. I don't track my results so I can't give you any real hard numbers for this year or past years. But I do know it will produce a few C bet losses. The key is your playing more series and I don't pay the high juice for 3 points. I only lay -150.

[Speedy123]

Speedy, are u using the +/- 500 or just playing on ANY team on rd trip or homestand in A game...chk back later for your response

scottel I put together work sheet listing all 3 series games cronologically. I then added a column tha listed which game won, A, B, or C or if C lost. Up to Jan 5 there was 125 three game series (counting any 6 games as two series) There was 74 a wins. I paid no attention to good/bad, +55/-500 or anything else. So the answer is that for some reason the A games have averaged .59 up till that date. Tonight I bet on 4 of the 5 starting series and had 3 wins and 1 loss so hope this trend continues.

[Speedy123]

Speedy , I noticed u left out ATL.. just curious why...thx

Actually was an error on my part as I even mentioned that there was 5 series starting today (Jan 6) the one team I failed to bet on was NJN which played ATL. Since ATL is only playing two home games they are not in a three game series but NJN starts a three game road series. (with your fade you had a winner with ATL) Since NJN is clearly the worst team overall maybe I accidentally discovered the first filter. Anyway saved me betting on a looser.

[scottel]

59% on 125 plays is solid.....sounds good........did u say u checked last yr also?

[scottel]

JAN 7...........no plays today.......here are current records

mixed or same conf rd trip.....A 19-19-1....B...13-7...C...3-5 negative units now so just tracking 39 series 34-5 on series

opp conf.............................A 16-8-1.......B 5-4.........C 3-1........25 series 24-1 on series


a series loss is -8.26 units so even at 34-5 on series its minus about 7 units

[peterpan19]

I remember that I checked last year how teams did on first game of a 3 game series... and you only hit around 50% over the year... I also think thats how it will do over a lot of seasons... so I guess so far this year you are just lucky...

[joefunn]

scottel, im going to opp conference games from here out. spent last night charting all the opp conference games for remainder of season. i also will be following JM plays since i have them and will use a somewhat diff money mgt. good luck to you and keep us posted to with any addtional filters.

[scottel]

scottel, im going to opp conference games from here out. spent last night charting all the opp conference games for remainder of season. i also will be following JM plays since i have them and will use a somewhat diff money mgt. good luck to you and keep us posted to with any addtional filters.

will do, also going to stick with opp conf.....the same/mixed had done well but tide has turned (down 7 units) another series loss will drop it to -15 and that takes a while to dig out of , if at all...........will keep tracking the same/mix

[scottel]

JAN 8 both +500 team on rd trip

Clev A bet
Mia A bet

post lines later, seem to get worst of it if play early

[scottel]

Mia +6.....went ahead and got 6, seeing some 5-

Clev...off the board for now

[scottel]

Clev -3

[doubledime]

Scott if you are now going to filter using opp conferences, does that apply only to the first game of the 3 game series?

[Speedy123]

I remember that I checked last year how teams did on first game of a 3 game series... and you only hit around 50% over the year... I also think thats how it will do over a lot of seasons... so I guess so far this year you are just lucky...

Peterpan, you are probably right. I can't imagine such a simple concept having a winning % without everyone all over it. If the lines makers get it too lopsided one can take advantage betting it as I am now doing or fading it if it tilts the opposite way. I counted 6 or more game series as two betting opportunities starting the 2nd series with game 4. I will test last years NBA system using this criteria just to see how it stands up. Thanks for you contribution.

[doubledime]

Scott or anyone....If you can give me the loses with the dates based on your original system I can go back and check it against the 3 additional filters. 1. (won/loss - home/road) 2. (w/l - ats) 3. (w/l - h/r - ats). A quick look with these filters may help.

[Speedy123]

JAN 8 both +500 team on rd trip

Clev A bet
Mia A bet

post lines later, seem to get worst of it if play early

Scottel, with you on both above. Had to take CLE at -3.5 and MIA +6.

Also testing my "Bet all A Games" so also have WAS +8 and GSW -4.

Am hoping the .59 win rate on all A games holds. Good luck everyone.

[GGPLAYER]

JAN 8 both +500 team on rd trip

Clev A bet
Mia A bet

post lines later, seem to get worst of it if play early

FYI - These are also JM Plays today. So if they lose try and get the lines early on the B bet because all the JM betters screw up the lines.