good luck
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I missed the Miami game but I am on the rest good luck guysComment -
nah dude nothing to do with record.
if a team has a positive point diff. at the time of the trip you bet em.
Negative point diff. you fade them.
But in order to get better results if a team is to close to zero we dont play em cause its too much of a coin flip.Comment -
so if team avg 95.2 pts and gives up 91.5 then its bet or compare the two teams off avg?
just trying to get it right on what u r doingComment -
Ok. So, you're taking a ROAD team over .500 for a 3 game road trip (minimum)? Does it matter the record of the home team? Do they need to be above/below .500? And, these ONLY include straight up wins? Not ATS?Comment -
betting on reg spread .....betting ON +500 team on rd trip of 3 or more and AGAINST an under 500 team on rd trip, 3 or more.....just started today to bet on home team of +500 on 3 gm or more homestand.(UTAH)....one of above posters said they are doing well
not concerned with opp recordComment -
its 3 gm chase so if win on bet 1 or 2 then stop....of course if u get to bet 3 and lose u lose the series and units involved......sunday will have C bet on CLEV as clt has covered first two of rd trip...palying AGAINST CLT since under 500Comment -
So, ATS records don't mean anything in this system? Straight up wins only, right?Comment -
yea, if u mean the +500 and under 500 teams...based on SU record not spread recordComment -
yep scott exactly. Its only based on the team going on the road trip.
So its almost identical to what you do because point differentials and records often go hand in hand, but point differential usually translates into ATS wins better than record, in my experienceComment -
2-0 +2 units
no bets tomorrow for me.
C bet against Memphis on Tuesday.
B bet on Houston at LAL on Tuesday.Comment -
Wow not the greatest of nights for this system, but I have faith we'll rebound. Question, since Memphis has now improved their record to +500 are we still betting against them for a C bet in their next game? This has got me a little confused.Comment -
yes Seth.....started rd trip under 500 so play vs them for 3 games if needed...and it is........Mem playing well, so scary, but system will have losers....dont bet over your headComment -
yea rough night..rd trip angle was 1-3....home stand 0-1 if anyone following it, will keep posting to see how it does....today
Clev - ? CLT C bet.....thinking line may drop so waiting to bet it later, already down since opening
+500 home team on homestand....A bet on DEN -4 over PHILComment -
ok.......Jan 3
Clev -11 vs CLT C bet
+500 home team on homestand....A bet on DEN -4 over PHILComment -
Last night was a little rough at 1/4 but there are days like this in any chase system. There was one day last season in the Morrisy system where we had 4 C bets on the same day. Amazingly they all won but talk about a teeth clincher! And it could have went the other way.
This is my opinion and in no way do I fault anyone for strictly following the system but there may be some merit in considering a teams ATS along with their SU record. MEM is one example. Have won 9 of their last 11 games ATS with one push and one loss. When we get paid it is based on the ATS not the SU record. Going to take a closer look at Bsimp' modification as I see he has filtered out today's CHA/CLE game.
For me nothing is written in stone so I do tweak systems and this has preserved my bankroll any number of times. Today is a good example. I will be playing both CLE and DEN. CLE as a C bet calls for a 4.85 units bet while DEN is an A bet for 1.1 unit. This totals 5.95 units at risk. I will round this up to 6 units and divide by 2 for a 3 unit bet on each game. If I win both games will be even on the series and will have won my 2 units. If I win one and lose one will break even. If I loose both then the results will be the same as if I lost the ClE bet. This is an example of my money management. Now to wait the results. Good luck everyoneComment -
Wow the cleveland line is moving the wrong way....I thought for sure it would get down to at least -10. I'm horrible at judging when lines will be at there best..Comment -
was rough and it will happen......like I said above Mem is playing well.....maddening part was Htn led most of way and Mia did not go to the hoop and CLT had about 20 more free throws.....anyone shud feel free to tweek and if see something that works go with it....still little confused on bsimp method, since filtered out Clev u would need to chk series ahead of time so u dont bet A and B then realize u shud skip C after 2 losses, right?
there will be losses and many times on system the ugly plays win and what looks ez on paper loses...lets get that C bet todayComment -
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You are sure right about ugly games wining. This really was true in the JM system last year. Gess I shouldn't be handicaping. Need to head down to the casino to get my bets in. You guys on the internet can just type in your orders. I have a 5 minute drive but nice thing can have cash in hand as soon as game is over.
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Like to see that every one is open to disscusing tweaks to these systems I am working on some back testing for a 2 game chase I will post when I have some data... BTW Speedy how do you like living in Vegas?Comment -
yea Speedy would be nice to go in sportsbook and get paid same day.....no worry id offshore is going to drag out your paymentComment -
Clev -12 now......hope Bobcats partied at south beach last night,hahaComment -
I finished tesing my system for a lot of years:
09-10 so far: +8.76 u
08-09: +43.56 u
07-08 +28.08u
06-07 +7.08u
05-06:-9.88u
04-05: +8.84u
After that it drops off. 4 out of 5 winning seasons for 86.44 units aint bad.
And really what we are betting on is faith in the linesmakers. That they can make solid enough lines so that no team goes on a 3 game ATS winning or losing streak, correct? In that case, linesmakers are only getting better which would explain the upward trend in profit. It makes sense to put your money on the people that are guaranteed profit, not a tout or player, a linesmaker.Comment -
bsimp, next time u have play...go through it for me so I understand the filters if u wouldComment -
ok no problem.
next play is tuesdayComment -
Clev needs to step it upComment -
systems aside its time to fade the Bobcats they can't keep covering like thisComment -
no road trip plays today.......if u are playing the +500 homestand then
Utah B bet
MIA could skip or A or B....reason being Mia was A play vs Clt since clt on rd trip.....mia was also play on for homestand......did not have 2 losses , just one so u could A bet Mia or just skip it as they only have one more home gm in this series after tonight....hope thats not too confusingComment -
tomorrow my system.
When Memphis started their trip, they were below -1 pit differential
they won the first 2, so tomorrow is a C.
Houston was better than +1 when they started their trip so tomorrow they are a BComment -
Utah Jazz bad loss..go 3rd betComment -
JAN 5
rd trip plays........HTN NL yet B bet.(ON HTN)..........Port NL yet C bet (vs MEM)
+500 homestand DEN NL B betComment -
ok........HTN +7-.....Port -1.....Den -8Comment
