scotts NBA system plays

[scottel]

DEC 30 plays

bad 0-2 night last night......hope tonight is better

Ind +2- A bet........against Mem
Tor -5- A bet.......against Clt
NJ +3 B bet .......against NY

[Speedy123]

Going to be late for work. With you on above picks with an additional game. Betting PHI on their 4th road game in a 6 game road trip considering this a seperate series. Have SAC -2 over PHI. and have IND +3. Good luck.

[scottel]

since Home teams (+500) are doing well so far on 3 or more home stand I will start playing them....nothing today though

[scottel]

Going to be late for work. With you on above picks with an additional game. Betting PHI on their 4th road game in a 6 game road trip considering this a seperate series. Have SAC -2 over PHI. and have IND +3. Good luck.

so if 6 in row on rd u divide it up into two series?

[Stealinhome]

so if 6 in row on rd u divide it up into two series?

Yea he is saying to go a head and make a six game trip two series.

[scottel]

win series going vs NY....clt and mem will go to B bets

[bsimp3021]

im going to test the ATS angle.
anybody got a spreadsheet or something or will i have to go the old ESPN schedule route?

[bsimp3021]

starting on december 10 (i thought this would give enough time for teams to get in the flow of the season), betting on teams +500 ATS on 3+ game road trips and against -500 ATS teams on same road trips was:
16-3 net loss of 8.72 units. Not good.

[bsimp3021]

If you did the same thing, except using +/- ratio instead of record (-1 or worse fade, +1 or better play, in btw no play) between Dec 10 and now, 3+ game road trips would be
17-1 series +8.36 units
3+ homestands would be
14-1 +5.36 units
bringing the total to +13.72 units in nineteen days. impressive. I will backtest this for last season, just thought I would let you guys know.
Good Luck to everyone.

[scottel]

what do u mean by -1 or +1....not following, thx

[scottel]

DEC 31.........no plays

[scottel]

here is what I have so far this season........all 3 or more rd trips

total series....60........series won 57...series lost 3........57-3 on series chase......a series loss is - 8.26 units........so 57 - 3x 8.26 = +32.22

[doubledime]

thank you and have a great New Year

[Speedy123]

If you did the same thing, except using +/- ratio instead of record (-1 or worse fade, +1 or better play, in btw no play) between Dec 10 and now, 3+ game road trips would be
17-1 series +8.36 units
3+ homestands would be
14-1 +5.36 units
bringing the total to +13.72 units in nineteen days. impressive. I will backtest this for last season, just thought I would let you guys know.
Good Luck to everyone.

Like Scote am a little unclear about the -1 +1 and in between. Like your results an interested to see how they do for last season. Today have been working on my worksheet.

Since I faded PHI in the 4th game of their road series and lost last night I have a B bet for this evening. LAC -1 against PHI.


HAPPY NEW YEAR

[Speedy123]

here is what I have so far this season........all 3 or more rd trips

total series....60........series won 57...series lost 3........57-3 on series chase......a series loss is - 8.26 units........so 57 - 3x 8.26 = +32.22

Great job Scottel hope it keeps up for rest of yseason!! Think this might work in MLB too?

[scottel]

in baseball I did this last season, netted about 50 units.......bet on +500 team at home in gm1 of series, if lose bet gm2......of course if gm1 wins u stop......if both 1 and 2 lose u also stop and accept the loss and if gm1 loses u bet to win gm1 loss + one unit on gm2.......also dont lay over 170 in gm1.....if gm2 happens to be over 170 then lay it......of course u end up with lot of favs but most winning teams dont lose first two games of home series.....also playing home team to avoid sweep in 3 game set was not worth the risk involved trying to win 2 game losses plus unit on gm3 or 4 if 4 game set

[bsimp3021]

i mean the point differential, like +/- ratios
and in order to give better results, the team had to be at least winning every game by 1 or more to bet on, and losing by 1 or more to fade. If it was in the middle of -1 and +1 no bet
Last year:
Series Record: 93-6
+42.48 units

[scottel]

Jan 1

Orl -8- A bet (+500 team on rd trip ,3 gms or more)

[doubledime]

in baseball I did this last season, netted about 50 units.......bet on +500 team at home in gm1 of series, if lose bet gm2......of course if gm1 wins u stop......if both 1 and 2 lose u also stop and accept the loss and if gm1 loses u bet to win gm1 loss + one unit on gm2.......also dont lay over 170 in gm1.....if gm2 happens to be over 170 then lay it......of course u end up with lot of favs but most winning teams dont lose first two games of home series.....also playing home team to avoid sweep in 3 game set was not worth the risk involved trying to win 2 game losses plus unit on gm3 or 4 if 4 game set

What point in the season did you start in baseball?

[scottel]

What point in the season did you start in baseball?

after two weeks...most teams had played 4 series by then ...got some good dog plays in April....KC started out strong for example

as footnote I tracked all plays but the big favs hurt so put limit of 170 in gm1, if u bet gm 1 u are commitedt IMO so if gm2 is 190 or 200 I go ahead and play it

[Speedy123]

in baseball I did this last season, netted about 50 units.......bet on +500 team at home in gm1 of series, if lose bet gm2......of course if gm1 wins u stop......if both 1 and 2 lose u also stop and accept the loss and if gm1 loses u bet to win gm1 loss + one unit on gm2.......also dont lay over 170 in gm1.....if gm2 happens to be over 170 then lay it......of course u end up with lot of favs but most winning teams dont lose first two games of home series.....also playing home team to avoid sweep in 3 game set was not worth the risk involved trying to win 2 game losses plus unit on gm3 or 4 if 4 game set

Sounds interesting. I assume you are only betting on the money line? Can't argue with 50 units. If only I could afford $1000 units. (we can all dream !!) With good money managment a bankerole can gradually be built up with a sensable increase in unit value.

Won my B bet last night. Betting against PHI as a second 3 game series in their 6 game road trip. This strategy was a winner for me last season.

[peterpan19]

also for the baseball system... its always good to not play anything the first 2 and the last 2 weeks of the season... no matter what the system is...

GL... and so far your road system looks really good... too bad I dont have the time to backtest it...

[scottel]

yea speedy on ML........you would be laying 1- most times and nothing worse than su win but RL loss

[scottel]

ok, dug out my figures for bases last yr........two other things, I stopped after August 31......Sept can be real juicy so just dropped it, did not even track it,plus FB starts ,lol......and dont do interleague....wasn't very good.........with that said last yr gm1 were 167-104 +2159...gm2 71-33 +2087....so you had 271 series (A wins + losses) ....out of 271 only 33 (B losses) situations where +500 HT did not win gm1 or 2 of home series.........238 of 271 series won...88% win rate on series....+4246....so 42 units, my bad, but still good.....half the units were won in April and May

gm1 bets were to win 100 and gm2 bet to win gm1 loss plus one unit....if dog 100 to win whatever in gm1

[peterpan19]

you mean +.500 Home record... or do you mean the Home team had to had an overall record of +.500 ?

[scottel]

you mean +.500 Home record... or do you mean the Home team had to had an overall record of +.500 ?

overall record of +500

[Speedy123]

Congrats on Orlando win tonight. Have a few B wager bets for tomorrow and I believe one A bet.

[bsimp3021]

yep B on Suns (against grizz)
B on Blazers (against Warriors)
A on Houston
At least for me with my +/- form.
If its cool for everyone Im just gonna keep track of it on here and see how it does.
So far 1-0 +1 unit

[bsimp3021]

So I tested my +/- chase method for 07-08 as well
Series record: 94-8 +28.08 units profit
combine that with last years and this years and you get 80.8 units of profit.
THATS A SHITLOAD OF MONEY
Anyways im gonna test it for the remainder of the decade to see if its worth anything
Good Luck tomorrow to everyone.

[scottel]

ok , big day ahead...nice win by ORL last night

JAN 2

Mia -6....B bet against CLT
HTN +2-...A bet on Htn
Phx -8.....B bet against Mem
Port NL yet B bet against GST
.......going to do +500 team on home stand, at least 3 games....Utah A bet....NL yet

[scottel]

bsimp.....still not clear on your +1 -1...do u mean u only play if one team is over 500 and the other is under 500?....i.e. an 500 vs under 500?

[scottel]

record wise here is what I have

same or mixed conf rd trip.......36 series so far 2 losers....34-2.....3 pending and one starting today

opp conf only...........................25 series.......24 wins 1 loss... 24-1....these are series records

...hitting at 95% on series overall so far

[SOXROCK]

record wise here is what I have

same or mixed conf rd trip.......36 series so far 2 losers....34-2.....3 pending and one starting today

opp conf only...........................25 series.......24 wins 1 loss... 24-1....these are series records

...hitting at 95% on series overall so far

scottel what are your official plays today?? thanks

[scottel]

ok , big day ahead...nice win by ORL last night

JAN 2

Mia -6....B bet against CLT
HTN +2-...A bet on Htn
Phx -8.....B bet against Mem
Port NL yet B bet against GST
.......going to do +500 team on home stand, at least 3 games....Utah A bet....NL yet

......right above......

[scottel]

ok..........Port -4-

Utah -6 .....+500 on home stand, just going to see how it goes, follow if u like