scotts NBA system plays

**peterpan19** · 12-27-09, 08:20 AM

ok which book did you get DAL +7... I mean it could move to +7... but right now I only see 6.5... just curious...

and as for HOU... GL

**SimonSayz** · 12-27-09, 09:05 AM

Scott...

I have been trying to find your initial thread detailing the specifics of your system. I am sure other people would like to know as well how it works. Since you started one thread, can you explain it?

Simon

**peterpan19** · 12-27-09, 09:11 AM

Play on 3game road trip team if +.500 on a 3 game chase...
If team is under .500 fade the team on that 3 game road trip...

GL

**scottel** · 12-27-09, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by SimonSayz

Scott...

I have been trying to find your initial thread detailing the specifics of your system. I am sure other people would like to know as well how it works. Since you started one thread, can you explain it?

Simon

play on +500 team on rd trip of 3 games or more....gm1 wins , quit, loses then play gm2 to win back loss + one unit....if gm2 wins , quit, if gm1 and 2 lose then bet gm3 to win back the losses on 1 nad 2 plus one unit

play AGAINST an under 500 team , same as above

if team is exactly 500 at time of rd trip then pass

**scottel** · 12-27-09, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

ok which book did you get DAL +7... I mean it could move to +7... but right now I only see 6.5... just curious...

and as for HOU... GL

use local guy, not online but he does by computer

**Speedy123** · 12-27-09, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by peterpan19

ok which book did you get DAL +7... I mean it could move to +7... but right now I only see 6.5... just curious...

and as for HOU... GL

Here in Las Vegas the line opened at most books at DAL +6.5 and is now at +5 at most books. Still at +5.5 at Palace Station where I make a lot of my bets. Line has definately been dropping.

**scottel** · 12-27-09, 09:56 PM

htn loses so 3rd series loss so far, dallas looking good, knock on wood

**scottel** · 12-27-09, 09:57 PM

DEC 28 monday

no plays today.........GL all

**dogs1972** · 12-27-09, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by scottel

use local guy, not online but he does by computer

i've checked in on your thread from time to time and looks like your doing good. How has your record been this season.

**scottel** · 12-27-09, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by dogs1972

i've checked in on your thread from time to time and looks like your doing good. How has your record been this season.

based on series.......55 won...3 lost....each series loss is 8.26 units so

55 - 3x8.26 = 30.22 units

**scottel** · 12-29-09, 06:12 AM

Dec 29....Tuesday

Det -5 one unit.............playing against NY

LAL -11- one unit.........playing against GST

**Speedy123** · 12-29-09, 11:57 AM

Sotel, like your system. Have both plays booked. One interesting side point. I wondered why this would not work for home games as well. I spent the most part of Christmas day applying your criteria to home games. The results was that I was up by 36 units on the 3 series home games. Most of the losses occured in the first series bets so if you applied a filter and didn't play first series bets you woud be up 39 units. (only a 3 unit gain.) I decided to apply this to the rest of the season and bet all three series games both home and away. So far I have won 3 A bets, POR on the 26th and PHO and OAK (playing against NJN) last night.

There is one interesting twist. Sometimes there will be a situation where both home and away teams are starting a three game series and are playing each other. Tonights LAL/ GSW game is one such example. There will be 16 more in the approximately 180 three game series for the rest of the season.
In these situations I will play the strongest team ATS.

Am puting together a spreadsheet of remaining games. Will post it if there is any interest. Just building on your idea. You get the credit. Good luck.

**trix** · 12-29-09, 01:02 PM

hey scott, for the Detroit game, it doesnt matter that both Detroit and Knicks are both under 500? as long as u'r fading the roadteam thats under 500?

**Stealinhome** · 12-29-09, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by Speedy123

Sotel, like your system. Have both plays booked. One interesting side point. I wondered why this would not work for home games as well. I spent the most part of Christmas day applying your criteria to home games. The results was that I was up by 36 units on the 3 series home games. Most of the losses occured in the first series bets so if you applied a filter and didn't play first series bets you woud be up 39 units. (only a 3 unit gain.) I decided to apply this to the rest of approximately 180 three game series for the rest of the season.
In these situations I will play the strongest team ATS.

Am puting together a spreadsheet of remaining games. Will post it if there is any interest. Just building on your idea. You get the credit. Good luck.

Speedy I would like to see your data this is all very interesting.

**Speedy123** · 12-29-09, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by Stealinhome

Speedy I would like to see your data this is all very interesting.

Thanks Stealinghome. From my observation I see very little difference in three game away or and three game at home series other than it doubles the amount of series available in a season. I will post my list either here, (if it is ok with Scott) or on a new thread. Will have it ready in a day or so. Also want to back test for several years but this will be slow as one must calculate each teams position relevant to the .500/.500 win/loss position as this changes throught the season.

Another interesting observation while checking on the home team 3 game series was that with every series loss the team won their next series A bet. (Several series still pending play) This might be interesting for someone interested in debt recovery from a series loss. Good luck.

**scottel** · 12-29-09, 02:45 PM

good info Speedy...feel free to post in here.....my goal is to win $$ and help others if possible, no guarantees of course......lots of forums on net and most have thier share of haters and troublemakers(why ,I dont know)....have not looked at home angle but sounds interesting......what happened , was last yr I was using JM but decided I did not want lay 170 to buy points so I decided to look at how teams did without points......it was about 50-50...so I decided to break it down into +500 and under 500 and thats when things showed a nice win %...so followed it that way rest of season and did well.....someone, I forget who, said they back tested last 10 yrs and results were not as good as what happened last yr........I dont know and dont have time to go thru past seasons since I need teams record at time of rd trip........last yr I won and this yr is winning so going to keep plodding along until it goes sour, if it does.

BTW....u have checked this season from start on home series? and up 36 units? if so , sounds good to me

**scottel** · 12-29-09, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by trix

hey scott, for the Detroit game, it doesnt matter that both Detroit and Knicks are both under 500? as long as u'r fading the roadteam thats under 500?

just concerned with our play ON team or play Against teams record....since AGAINST NY , record of det is not a concern.....fyi , i have started noting the records of teams in my notes so I can see later if any trend when two under teams are playing and + vs - - vs -, etc +vs +.....like tonight det and NY are under vs under team

**scottel** · 12-29-09, 02:51 PM

.......sorry, but dont have spreadsheet......using the ol pen and paper

**Speedy123** · 12-29-09, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by scottel

good info Speedy...feel free to post in here.....my goal is to win $$ and help others if possible, no guarantees of course......lots of forums on net and most have thier share of haters and troublemakers(why ,I dont know)....have not looked at home angle but sounds interesting......what happened , was last yr I was using JM but decided I did not want lay 170 to buy points so I decided to look at how teams did without points......it was about 50-50...so I decided to break it down into +500 and under 500 and thats when things showed a nice win %...so followed it that way rest of season and did well.....someone, I forget who, said they back tested last 10 yrs and results were not as good as what happened last yr........I dont know and dont have time to go thru past seasons since I need teams record at time of rd trip........last yr I won and this yr is winning so going to keep plodding along until it goes sour, if it does.

BTW....u have checked this season from start on home series? and up 36 units? if so , sounds good to me

Yes, checked the season up until Dec 25 for 3 team home series. Was slow as I had to determin where each team stood (above or below .500 at the game date) Was up 36 units on paper. Am now up 3 live A bets. I too play JM but don't pay the high -170 odds. Sports books here in Las Vegas don't sell 3 points so I go with the -110 odds. Will post a list of remaining 3 game series. Will highlight road games for those only playing them. (I hate haters!! They only contribute negative energy!!)

**scottel** · 12-29-09, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by Speedy123

Sotel, like your system. Have both plays booked. One interesting side point. I wondered why this would not work for home games as well. I spent the most part of Christmas day applying your criteria to home games. The results was that I was up by 36 units on the 3 series home games. Most of the losses occured in the first series bets so if you applied a filter and didn't play first series bets you woud be up 39 units. (only a 3 unit gain.) I decided to apply this to the rest of the season and bet all three series games both home and away. So far I have won 3 A bets, POR on the 26th and PHO and OAK (playing against NJN) last night.

There is one interesting twist. Sometimes there will be a situation where both home and away teams are starting a three game series and are playing each other. Tonights LAL/ GSW game is one such example. There will be 16 more in the approximately 180 three game series for the rest of the season.
In these situations I will play the strongest team ATS.

Am puting together a spreadsheet of remaining games. Will post it if there is any interest. Just building on your idea. You get the credit. Good luck.

I went back thru this season schedule for home team and came up with 37 series won and 10 lost so far...playing on +500 home team and AGAINST -500 HOME team
is this what u are doing on home side? because based on these stats so far 10 losing series would be negative $$ even with 37 series won.....I used any home stand of 3 or more....are u using exactly 3 games home stand?....think danger here may be that losing teams win more at home but on rd fare poorly for most part and dont cover 3 in row on rd

**joefunn** · 12-29-09, 06:48 PM

why is LA a play tonight, there not on a 3game road trip are they

**joefunn** · 12-29-09, 07:06 PM

i caught it , GSW are the team we are playing agianst foe 3 game road series (sorry)

**scottel** · 12-29-09, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by joefunn

i caught it , GSW are the team we are playing agianst foe 3 game road series (sorry)

no problem...correct playing AGAINST GST so on LAL

**scottel** · 12-29-09, 07:45 PM

speedy....when u get chance post your findings on home series if u can......want to see where w e are differing......did chk home team +500 and get 23-2 on series, 3 or more home games...which is much better than bad home team (under 500) playing against the bad home team

**Stealinhome** · 12-29-09, 08:06 PM

Scottel, Speedy I a going to work on some back testing as well...

**Stealinhome** · 12-29-09, 10:08 PM

I just went through this season testing +.500 teams on 3 game home stands and I came up with
Total 27-2

A-15-14
B-9-5
C-3-2

So you would be up about 10 units

**bsimp3021** · 12-29-09, 10:23 PM

would this system be effective if instead of playing +500 teams and against -500 teams record wise, you played only teams +500 ATS and against -500 teams ATS?

**Speedy123** · 12-30-09, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by scottel

speedy....when u get chance post your findings on home series if u can......want to see where w e are differing......did chk home team +500 and get 23-2 on series, 3 or more home games...which is much better than bad home team (under 500) playing against the bad home team

Just went over my figures that covered the time prior to Dec 25. I had 99 wins which count any 6 straight home games as two 3 game series. I had missed one loss in my original figures so now show 9 losses. for a net loss of 74.34 units. (9x8.26=74.34) this give a net win of 24.66 units. (99-74=24.66) If your 10 loss figure is correct that futher reduces the win but still in positive terretory.

Here are my 9 losses: CHA 1127 DEN 11/18 HOU 11/27 IND 11/7 LAL 11/1 and 12/16 MEM 11/29 NOR 11/21 and PHI 11/25.

An interesting sidepoint is that 4 of these losses occured in the first series. That would mean a loss of 33.04 units with a win of 24 units for a net loss of 9.04 units. (33.04-24=9.04) This also has occured in several of John Morrisy's teams in past years but I don't remember which.

Just noticed that I had Houston Pending their B bet this probably counts for your 10th loss.

**Speedy123** · 12-30-09, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by bsimp3021

would this system be effective if instead of playing +500 teams and against -500 teams record wise, you played only teams +500 ATS and against -500 teams ATS?

Bsimp, we must think alike because this was my next back test. Good thinking because, in my openion, ATS reflects a truer picture foom a wagering standpoint.

**Speedy123** · 12-30-09, 01:24 PM

Also like Stealinghome and Scott's results of +.500 home teams at 27/2. This might be a great filter. Lets cash in on these games. BOL

**Stealinhome** · 12-30-09, 01:51 PM

As far as the -.500 home teams go it might be better to play on them seems like they should cover 1 out 3 at home as most bad teams cover close to 50% of there games.

I was thinking of a filter of not betting on the over all worst team in the NBA. That would be the Nets and they are 9-22 ATS so far this year. What do you all think about that idea?

**bsimp3021** · 12-30-09, 02:00 PM

so what did the backtest reveal speedy?

**Speedy123** · 12-30-09, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by bsimp3021

so what did the backtest reveal speedy?

Haven't did it yet Bsimp. Was just checking my figures on my Christmas Day calculations and discovered several glaring errors. Want to recheck them first. Right now I have to go to work so will work on this later. Thangs definatly look promising with everyone contributing. One thing for sure, we can stay with Scottel's original system as it is ahead but I think we will be able to develope some filters that will improve it and have a far superior system to John Morrison and only at -110 odds. Will be checking back in late tonight.

**Speedy123** · 12-30-09, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by Stealinhome

As far as the -.500 home teams go it might be better to play on them seems like they should cover 1 out 3 at home as most bad teams cover close to 50% of there games.

I was thinking of a filter of not betting on the over all worst team in the NBA. That would be the Nets and they are 9-22 ATS so far this year. What do you all think about that idea?

Stealhome, have a minute before I have to leave for work. It's sure worth looking into. Earlier I had played with the idea of betting on best and worst ATS teams. Had a thread called Speedy's ATS System. Only a test and didn't make anything or loose much. Was winning about 50/50. Think my live bet record was 22-24 for a slight loss. Your idea sounds good. Looks like a straight fade against NJN might work but teams have a tendency to return to the norm. In meantime might make a little as I also put a lot of stock into trends continuing.