2014/15 NBA Thread

[smize]

Bulls-7 -110 (paddy power) (risking 1.1x to win 1x)

Sixers+10.5 -105 (5dimes) (risking 0.53x to win 0.5x)
Sixers ml +500 (5dimes) (risking 0.5x to win 2.5x)

Mavs+7 -108 (5dimes) (risking 1.62x to win 1.5x)
Mavs ml +248 (5dimes) (risking 0.5x to win 1.24x)

76ers Moneyline really though? ... Your picks are weak.

On another note, I doubt the kings will cover but they might... But for me, I don't see this as a let down spot lol, I see this as the grizzlies now having their chance to move up closer to GS in standing...

[fitguy67]

20-3 run after going up 14 lol. I guess this kind of shit just happens with the Pistons.

I took them +9.5 live and got bailed out a bit.

Hate the Rose news - central is gonna be closer than anticipated. Still it's not like he was playing that great and they have proven they can play without him in the past, and this year they have 2 all stars on top of that so they should be ok. Actually feel like adding some with the books flipping out and putting +250 on the Bulls now. They still have a 1 game lead and BY FAR the easier schedule.

can you give us a shout if (and as soon as) you execute something on this front...whether or not it gets "counted" on the "thread record" is irrelevant...we degens don't like to miss out on action that we'd be too stupid to figure out for ourselves, lol

good luck on the stretch run, pal

[Lincoln Scofield]

Key word "might". Might isnt strong enough for me to back them

Then don't. Fukk do you want me to say.

Haha don't even respond to that dude Seto. Guy is the most worthless poster on this site. Always posting shit like "you guys really like so and so huh" after people have made plays on them. Well of course we do you idiot. We just put money on them. Ravens, just post less and make everyone happy.

[Seto]

can you give us a shout if (and as soon as) you execute something on this front...whether or not it gets "counted" on the "thread record" is irrelevant...we degens don't like to miss out on action that we'd be too stupid to figure out for ourselves, lol

good luck on the stretch run, pal

I put 5 units on it couldn't resist.

I don't really track futures much in here (except series bets during the playoffs) tbh.

Thanks. Same to you

[Seto]

Your picks are weak.

Fade them then.

[RavensFan2k3]

Haha don't even respond to that dude Seto. Guy is the most worthless poster on this site. Always posting shit like "you guys really like so and so huh" after people have made plays on them. Well of course we do you idiot. We just put money on them. Ravens, just post less and make everyone happy.

Yeah and the plays I question usually end up losing, so whats your point? You're such a loser man, all I see you do is talk shit that's literally all you do. Some people like to discuss plays to come to the best decision, some just post their play win or lose. Me and Seto have discussed plays before so Im not sure why he got upset with my post but either way you contribute nothing. You're the only one who has problems with me for whatever reason, just put me on ignore or whatever and just be done with it.

[Vinnie Paz]

76ers Moneyline really though? ... Your picks are weak.

On another note, I doubt the kings will cover but they might... But for me, I don't see this as a let down spot lol, I see this as the grizzlies now having their chance to move up closer to GS in standing...

Lmao this Fukkin guy

I love you, sbr.

[Lincoln Scofield]

Some people like to discuss plays to come to the best decision

...does not compute with...

Key word "might". Might isnt strong enough for me to back them

And if you can't figure out

why he got upset with my post

then God help you.

You're the only one who has problems with me for whatever reason

The reason is you're a phucking useless poster.

all I see you do is talk shit that's literally all you do.

I only talk shit to useless posters that need to be put in their place. Just so happens that's 90% of the site so I could see why you'd say that. Heads up, you're in that 90.

[t-wizzle]

Let's get the Rockets tonight. On the other side in Dal-Atl though.

I think Houston pulls it out late.

[smize]

Not gonna happen wizzle. Atlanta will be all over them tonight. Mark my words .

[smize]

Lmao this Fukkin guy

I love you, sbr.

Well unlike you and the other kids on this forum , I don't make bad picks.

[Vinnie Paz]

Well unlike you and the other kids on this forum , I don't make bad picks.

[RavensFan2k3]

...does not compute with...

And if you can't figure out

[/COLOR]then God help you.

[/COLOR]The reason is you're a phucking useless poster.

I only talk shit to useless posters that need to be put in their place. Just so happens that's 90% of the site so I could see why you'd say that. Heads up, you're in that 90.[/COLOR]

Heads up, I dont give a shit buddy i'll try my hardest to post more useless shit, try and keep up man

[Seto]

Yeah and the plays I question usually end up losing, so whats your point? You're such a loser man, all I see you do is talk shit that's literally all you do. Some people like to discuss plays to come to the best decision, some just post their play win or lose. Me and Seto have discussed plays before so Im not sure why he got upset with my post but either way you contribute nothing. You're the only one who has problems with me for whatever reason, just put me on ignore or whatever and just be done with it.

I'm just tired of useless posts. Reread your post and please tell me what it contributed to the discussion.

I don't care whether my arguments convince people to tail me or not, in fact I don't post these plays so people can tail me or fade me or whatever. I post them

#1) For tracking reasons because it "forces" me to at least have a list of my recent picks if I get lazy and stop updating my personal records or travel somewhere where I can't access them for a bit.

#2) To discuss the games and gambling in general with other people.

So if you disagree with me and want to discuss the game, by all means do it. But posting just to say "sorry bro your argument didn't convince me"... Trust me - I don't care.

[NBA Maniac]

Seto i want you disagree with me.
You SUX !! ehehehe

[Seto]

Yesterday: 4-6, +1.05x
Total: 145-235-3, +33.18x

Got lucky on the Miami game, Houston-9 losing was a rough one though. All in all a decent night for the day's picks, the Bulls are driving me crazy though. Their fans are pathetic, who the fukk doesn't show up to a game just because a player is injured? This would be unheard of in a soccer game in Europe. Different mentality I guess.

I'm still confident but the margin for error is decreasing. I just can hardly wait for it to be over with and get the playoffs started tbh. I typically do well with futures but I hate how it's a constant mental strain for months. I have enough to endure supporting my own team, I don't need to be supporting 1 or 2 others on top of that because of gambling.

[t-wizzle]

Big game tonight bro. I lean Cavs but I could easily flip on that. I'm betting this one shortly before tip.

[Seto]

Big game tonight bro. I lean Cavs but I could easily flip on that. I'm betting this one shortly before tip.

Probably not betting either game tonight most likely just hope the Warriors and Thunder win.

Should be a tight game in Cleveland. It might be one of those games where the home team makes a late run but I hope not.

14 games on Friday so probably something worth playing there.

[No coincidences]

Yesterday: 4-6, +1.05x
Total: 145-235-3, +33.18x

I'm confused. You're up over 33 units but your thread is infested with trolls who call you a loser.

[t-wizzle]

I'm confused. You're up over 33 units but your thread is infested with trolls who call you a loser.

Why acknowledge it? Seto isn't so neither should anyone else.

[RavensFan2k3]

I'm just tired of useless posts. Reread your post and please tell me what it contributed to the discussion.

I don't care whether my arguments convince people to tail me or not, in fact I don't post these plays so people can tail me or fade me or whatever. I post them

#1) For tracking reasons because it "forces" me to at least have a list of my recent picks if I get lazy and stop updating my personal records or travel somewhere where I can't access them for a bit.

#2) To discuss the games and gambling in general with other people.

So if you disagree with me and want to discuss the game, by all means do it. But posting just to say "sorry bro your argument didn't convince me"... Trust me - I don't care.

Yeah I realized that it wasnt the best approach or wording after the fact so I do apoogize for that man, trust me I wasn't trying to troll you.

[Seto]

Yeah I realized that it wasnt the best approach or wording after the fact so I do apoogize for that man, trust me I wasn't trying to troll you.

Lol I didn't consider it trolling or anything. Don't worry about it.

[RavensFan2k3]

Lol I didn't consider it trolling or anything. Don't worry about it.

Great call on Sacramento man. Due to my ignorance, I missed out on a great play

[fitguy67]

I'm confused. You're up over 33 units but your thread is infested with trolls who call you a loser.

simple to explain: dolts suffer from WPF (win-percentage fascination)

will look at "110-80, -14u" and say "good job man, you're hitting 58% of your plays"

will look at "80-110, +14u" and say "you suck man...you're hitting just 42% of your plays"
_____________

it's not the battle between the Win tally vs the Loss tally that determines success...
but the battle between Dollars (aka. units when standardized) Won and Dollars Lost...

a subtle, but absolutely-critical distinction that must be made...
most can't make it, continuing to worry about Numbers and Percentages of what is essentially "notches-on-a-stick"...instead of noticing the Growth/Decline of Currency in their bankroll...

being overly concerned about maintaining a presentable W-L record makes people shitty shoppers in the short-term (ie. for "tonight's game") which dooms them to be long-term loser (regardless of whether "tonight's game" won or lost)...they will pay a ridiculous price for something cuz they want to avoid "missing out on the win"...and will consistently not recognize value in underpriced (hi-payout) dogs because they know (correctly so) that it'll most-likely lose tonight...not realizing that over the long haul, such plays grow the roll cuz there are enough "surprise wins" to more than offset all the losses

anyhow, i said it's simple...it is and it isn't: the subtleties related to comparing prices/probabilities that determine if something has "value" over time is complicated...but once grasped, one cares less and less about the W-L tally, and more and more about bankroll growth

people who equate a losing W% with being a losing gambler...are SIMPLY demonstrating their incapacity to grasp the complexities involved in building a bankroll over time (where identical $-results may easily be accomplished with win-tally percentages that may be very-hi, very-low, or anything in between...simply determined by the overall weighted-average of the price-range one favors to operate in)

it can all be summarized by looking at 2 guys winning at a 5% clip (getting $105 back from the book for every $100 they risk)...and by two guys losing at that same 5% clip (getting just $95 back from the book for every $100 staked)

4 gamblers: 2 long-term winners(A,B) and 2 long-term losers(C,D)
A) a $-winning hi-W% guy carefully selects hi-value faves over time (AND will have a respectable-LOOKING W% to keep the dolts away)
B) a $-winning low-W% guy carefully selects hi-value dogs over time, making money at the same rate as the guy above, but has a shitty-LOOKING W% and will have to suffer the dolts)

C) $-LOSING hi-W% guy careLESSLY selects LO-value faves over time (but will have a respectable-LOOKING W% to keep the dolts away)
D) $-LOSING low-W% guy careLESSLY selects lo-value dogs over time (losing money just as badly as the good-LOOKING one above, but will be a troll-magnet)

The annoyingly-ironic thing is that B will get hassled unfairly while winning money, while C gets unfairly praised (cuz while he's losing money, he keeps winning "most of his plays")

[t-wizzle]

Fitguy we've exhausted this topic. It's been discussed ad nauseum. The people who matter get it.

[fitguy67]

Fitguy we've exhausted this topic. It's been discussed ad nauseum. The people who matter get it.

you're right...the dolts won't get past the 7th line of text...auto-switch into tl/dr-mode...

the rest won't need to have the obvious subtleties re-stated...

[RavensFan2k3]

you're right...the dolts won't get past the 7th line of text...auto-switch into tl/dr-mode...

the rest won't need to have the obvious subtleties re-stated...

Yeah I agree with you man...having a below .500 record but being plus units is an amazing feet in my opinion. Idk why people care so much about records here on SBR. Its like they care more about being to say that they pick more winners than losers than they care about making money...i don't get it

[Seto]

Trying to figure out what the books are doing making the Clippers only a 5 point dog in Memphis.

Sure they won a few games after Griffin went down as I expected them to with a coach like Doc, but you can only win without your best player for so long.

Grizzlies-5 should be the line WITH Griffin, I'd have this game at -7 at least without him.

That said it fits with the +3.5 they gave the Grizz at Staples so I guess it makes "sense".

[Seto]

Grizzlies-5 -105 (5dimes) (risking 1.58x to win 1.5x)
Heat-1 -105 (5dimes) (risking 1.05x to win 1x)

Like the Raptors but most books don't have a line now. Hopefully the game is still a pk or so.

[Seto]

Raptors-1 +100 (5dimes) (risking 1.5x to win 1.5x)

Just opened.

[16kredit]

Like the Raptors but most books don't have a line now. Hopefully the game is still a pk or so.

Same with Pacers. GS and CLE played a hard fought battle with lots of effort and defense. They should be tired af. Also for CLE no irving.

[Seto]

Same with Pacers. GS and CLE played a hard fought battle with lots of effort and defense. They should be tired af. Also for CLE no irving.

Posted this in another thread

FWIW they played this exact same back to back 2-3 weeks ago after beating the Clippers on TNT on Thursday and lost to Indiana.

Dunno what to expect here. Hoping for a Pacers win.

Books are waiting for an update on Irving to post a line most probably.

[killersweet]

Grizzlies-5 -105 (5dimes) (risking 1.58x to win 1.5x)
Heat-1 -105 (5dimes) (risking 1.05x to win 1x)

Like the Raptors but most books don't have a line now. Hopefully the game is still a pk or so.

I was surprised by the Grizz line as well, thought it would be higher. I like them today for sure. As for the raptors, they r looking to bounce back at home after that crappy road trip. But Curry loves playing Toronto. That worries me.

[Seto]

I was surprised by the Grizz line as well, thought it would be higher. I like them today for sure. As for the raptors, they r looking to bounce back at home after that crappy road trip. But Curry loves playing Toronto. That worries me.

FWIW 3 weeks ago after Clippers-Cavs on TNT Thursday, the Clippers went to Toronto the Friday (and the Cavs went to Indiana as they are today so it's a freakishly similar schedule) and after a hot start completely ran out of gas. I think Toronto should handle this game. Both Lowry and DeRozan called themselves out for their recent shitty play yesterday. Lowry should take the challenge against Curry, not saying he'll stop him or anything though. We'll see.

[Seto]

Bulls-4.5 -105 (5dimes) (risking 1.05x to win 1x)
Wizards-20.5 +500 (william hill) (risking 0.2x to win 1x)
Wizards-20.5 +1400 (william hill) (first half) (risking 0.2x to win 2.8x)