2014/15 NBA Thread

[Seto]

Gonna try and set myself short-term goals, I won't go by these at all when I decide how much to put on my plays but I'll just look back and see how well I do compared to them once a certain period is over. Typically when I do this if I set an unrealistic goal (which typically happens when I'm feeling good about myself) I start losing and if I set a realistic goal just to reassure myself (which typically happens when I'm losing), I shatter it. So yeah, anyway.

Aiming to be back up to +10x by the break.
Back up to +20x by the end of the month.
Back up to +40x by the end of March (and pretty much the season since I rarely bet much the last 2 weeks except the year the Lakers were trying to make the playoffs 2 years ago).

Then win back the remaining 20 (and some more) in the playoffs. We'll see what happens, I've gone on much bigger heaters than that before (well I was up 65 units in the last month and a half just before this nightmare 2 week stretch), but I'm just trying to set something "low" for now.

[Seto]

Really pathetic effort from OKC tonight. Zero sense of urgency.

I honestly didn't even watch most of that game. I watched the first half of the Clippers/Toronto game (I liked Toronto to come back actually but yeah whatever ) and fell asleep at the half.

I woke up with OKC down 1 with 4 minutes to go and watched that. Durant just can never have a good shooting night when I bet this team it seems. But they scored 113 points so it's clearly not on that end. It's funny because this team actually has a lot of ability on defense - when they want to.

[No coincidences]

I honestly didn't even watch most of that game. I watched the first half of the Clippers/Toronto game (I liked Toronto to come back actually but yeah whatever ) and fell asleep at the half.

I woke up with OKC down 1 with 4 minutes to go and watched that. Durant just can never have a good shooting night when I bet this team it seems. But they scored 113 points so it's clearly not on that end. It's funny because this team actually has a lot of ability on defense - when they want to.

They got literally zero defensive stops in the second half.

[KRIT]

Yeah I don't get OKC. They can't afford to take nights off with where they are in the standings....but they still takes nights off. For as genius as their GM was, the guy has made head-scratching moves the last 3 years. Why would you want to bring in a cancer like Waiters, a guy who is a known black-hole, when you already have two players who need 20+ shots a night. Not to mention their backup PG (Jackson) is a scorer too.

I took OKC too, but once I saw it dropped down to 6 before tip i knew it was toast. I should have bought out live but was too dumb to do it. And not sure if it was said in here or somewhere else, but whenever i do bet on OKC Durant plays horrible.

[Seto]

Bulls-1.5 -110 (bet365) (risking 2.75x to win 2.5x)
Celtics+6 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.1x to win 1x)
Mavs-2.5 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.1x to win 1x)

[Seto]

Yeah I don't get OKC. They can't afford to take nights off with where they are in the standings....but they still takes nights off. For as genius as their GM was, the guy has made head-scratching moves the last 3 years. Why would you want to bring in a cancer like Waiters, a guy who is a known black-hole, when you already have two players who need 20+ shots a night. Not to mention their backup PG (Jackson) is a scorer too.

I took OKC too, but once I saw it dropped down to 6 before tip i knew it was toast. I should have bought out live but was too dumb to do it. And not sure if it was said in here or somewhere else, but whenever i do bet on OKC Durant plays horrible.

What I don't get is not putting Waiters in the starting lineup when he was starting to find a groove there. Some players just play better with the 1st unit and that seems to be the case with this guy so why would you mess with that?

Brooks has this weird obsession with having a non-offensive factor in the starting lineup. Roberson is the new Sefolosha.

[KRIT]

What I don't get is not putting Waiters in the starting lineup when he was starting to find a groove there. Some players just play better with the 1st unit and that seems to be the case with this guy so why would you mess with that?

Brooks has this weird obsession with having a non-offensive factor in the starting lineup. Roberson is the new Sefolosha.

At least he's finally taken Perkins out of the starting lineup, only took him a couple years lol. But yeah, I don't get OKC.....every year it is Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka and then two scrubs. I do like Adams, but I still think he is more of a 6th man type player than a starting center. And Roberson is useless, he is just a younger Sefelesoha. This team would thrive with a SG like a Danny Green or Corrie Brewer. Someone who can play defense and doesn't dominate the ball.

[Seto]

Why did Waiters, Morrow, and Jackson all play less minutes than Roberson?

I'm not trying to knock the kid, he had a decent stat line tonight. But Scott Brooks just doesn't seem to understand what he needs to do to make his rotations work.

[Seto]

At least he's finally taken Perkins out of the starting lineup, only took him a couple years lol. But yeah, I don't get OKC.....every year it is Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka and then two scrubs. I do like Adams, but I still think he is more of a 6th man type player than a starting center. And Roberson is useless, he is just a younger Sefelesoha. This team would thrive with a SG like a Danny Green or Corrie Brewer. Someone who can play defense and doesn't dominate the ball.

They could also put Morrow in the starting lineup. The guy is a lights-out shooter and would give lots of space to Durant and Westbrook. But he and Jackson together off the bench seems pretty good to me, they just seem not to want to give Jackson any minutes not to showcase him so another team won't give him a big contract. I might be totally off but that's what it looks like to me.

[Seto]

I suspect they're still trying to make a move - maybe to get a guy like Afflalo from Denver who can make a 3 and give you 12-14 points in the starting lineup. They just need to do something fast.

[Seto]

yeah, i was hip to how "winning margin"/"handicap spread" lined up, just wondering if some of the choices you were getting at paddy were buried somewhere (willy has generally an awkward "markets withing markets within markets" structure...can take many clicks to get what you want, even when you know what and where it is...)

since i don't have paddy i figured out a way to pretty well "cobble together" any of your alt lines at whl and/or 365 using their "additonal spread" and/or "winning margin" slate

(i'm sure this is not news to you, but might be helpful to some)
basically, you can "dutch" all the "winning margins" above the appropriate cut-off

eg. last night wanted WAS -10.5/"to win by" 11+ (at +900)
at 365 they had WAS to win by
10-13, +2200
14-16, +4000
17-20, +4000
21+, +8000

dutching all of these using http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...ing-calculator
gave odds of +856 a bit lower than +900 of course, because using this slate of plays is equivalent to WAS -9.5 (since you'd cash on any winning margin of 10+ instead of 11+)...so here you can't get the -10.5, +900 quoted but you can "roll your own" -9.5,+856 or thereabouts...

good to know: these lines (which make up the "do it yourself" alt-line) seem to always be available on bet365 during live-betting...and they can swing wildly as teams exchange runs in the early going...and the lottery payout can be magnified greatly due to a relatively meaningless early run by the opposing team...so it's a good idea to re-run the calculator after q1 and consider beefing up your lottery payout for a tiny additional stake

tonight i'll have to pay attention to see if the single alt-spread lines available pre-game at whl/paddy are active during live betting ...would be a lot simpler to revisit these in-play or during breaks than running the calculator on a bunch of 365 live-lines

It's good to know - I always figured doing that type of thing would yield less good odds, but never bothered actually counting to see if that was true. I'll pay attention from now on.

[killersweet]

Good luck today Seto.

[RavensFan2k3]

Bulls-1.5 -110 (bet365) (risking 2.75x to win 2.5x)
Celtics+6 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.1x to win 1x)
Mavs-2.5 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.1x to win 1x)

I like Mavs and Celtics for now, but not sure about Bulls yet

[KRIT]

I suspect they're still trying to make a move - maybe to get a guy like Afflalo from Denver who can make a 3 and give you 12-14 points in the starting lineup. They just need to do something fast.

OKC should pull the trigger. Afflalo would be a perfect fit. He could guard the opposing teams best wing player and he can space the floor and knock down 3's.

The Nuggets are reportedly seeking a first-round pick in exchange for Arron Afflalo.

Wilson Chandler is also expected to be available for a first-round pick, so it's clear that the Nuggets are starting to realize that this season has been lost. Both Chandler and Afflalo would likely lose value if they were traded, so it may not be a bad idea for their owners to sell-high while they still can. Expect the rumors to heat up as we approach the Feb. 19 trade deadline, and be sure to continually check back for updates.

[fitguy67]

nice little "start of an overdue turnaround" day

[Vinnie Paz]

Like thunder & rockets today. Fukkin asshole thunder better show up today

[Seto]

nice little "start of an overdue turnaround" day

Yeah that Mavs game is one of those where you think "maybe it's turning around". I've had a couple of bounceback days that just went to shit the very next night or 2 so not celebrating yet. It's a good start though

[Seto]

Yesterday: 3-0, +4.5x
Total: 123-202-2, +10.77x

Thunder-4 -115 (bet365) (risking 2.88x to win 2.5x)
Grizzlies-2 -110 (bet365) (risking 2.75x to win 2.5x)

[Seto]

Like thunder & rockets today. Fukkin asshole thunder better show up today

They better show up. They owe me some cash after the Cleveland and New Orleans games

[Seto]

I honestly feel like going bigger on the Grizzlies just giving myself a tad more time to think about it. This Hawks team is not easy to fade but the Golden State win might be the high point of their season and lead to a little slump. They had been covering a bit less often as of late already.

Also I've said this before but I really like Memphis this year. They might actually be my pick to come out of the West if you forced me to give one, although obviously none of the other 7 teams would surprise me either. I expect them to show up in this game and make a statement like when they snapped Golden State's win streak.

[Seto]

Yesterday: 3-0, +4.5x
Total: 123-202-2, +10.77x

Thunder-4 -115 (bet365) (risking 2.88x to win 2.5x)
Grizzlies-2 -110 (bet365) (risking 5.5x to win 5x)

Changed the Grizzlies bet in the quote to 5 units.

Lakers+13 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.1x to win 1x)
Lakers ml +800 (bet365) (risking 0.35x to win 2.8x)

[killersweet]

nice night Seto. Good luck today. like those 2 picks for sure.

[Seto]

nice night Seto. Good luck today. like those 2 picks for sure.

Thanks hopefully finally something positive starting in here.

[Seto]

Griffin is out. OKC better not come out lackluster again because they think the game is in the bag. These fukkers can't afford to at this point. This should be a 15 point win, no excuses.

[mlb]

Griffin is out. OKC better not come out lackluster again because they think the game is in the bag. These fukkers can't afford to at this point. This should be a 15 point win, no excuses.

Clippers on a brutal part of their schedule, controversy with Paul, blowing 20+ point leads, and now Blake news ...

you'd think OKC could bury them here?

[Seto]

Thunder-13 +210 (bet365) (risking 0.5x to win 1.05x)
Thunder-20.5 +500 (bet365) (risking 0.3x to win 1.5x)

It's a bit hard to play with the way OKC has been playing lately but they really should be able to take care of business here.

[Seto]

Clippers on a brutal part of their schedule, controversy with Paul, blowing 20+ point leads, and now Blake news ...

you'd think OKC could bury them here?

Yes. They'll probably rally and still be able to grind out enough to get in to the playoffs but it's not a certainty and this is crushing news for them.

I expect this to be like CP3's first game out last year, when the Clippers got demolished in San Antonio. They might be a decent ride in their next few games though, Doc will get them to overachieve for a couple weeks.

[mlb]

Yes. They'll probably rally and still be able to grind out enough to get in to the playoffs but it's not a certainty and this is crushing news for them.

I expect this to be like CP3's first game out last year, when the Clippers got demolished in San Antonio. They might be a decent ride in their next few games though, Doc will get them to overachieve for a couple weeks.

After reading what I typed I almost think you would back a team at this point, with expectations so low and the crushing news ... however we have seen how much "guts" this team has and it just doesn't seem like much.

[Seto]

After reading what I typed I almost think you would back a team at this point, with expectations so low and the crushing news ... however we have seen how much "guts" this team has and it just doesn't seem like much.

Backing a team in the first few games after a major injury can work.

I just don't think it will here unless OKC comes out lacksadaisical which they really can't afford to after the New Orleans game. They should just really have too much for LAC.

[mlb]

Backing a team in the first few games after a major injury can work.

I just don't think it will here unless OKC comes out lacksadaisical which they really can't afford to after the New Orleans game. They should just really have too much for LAC.

Good luck!

[killersweet]

Griffin is out. OKC better not come out lackluster again because they think the game is in the bag. These fukkers can't afford to at this point. This should be a 15 point win, no excuses.

Damn it. Hopefully Clip joint don't rally around the injury. OKC better bring it today.

[Seto]

This was the easiest game of the season. Such a predictable blowout. Didn't put more because this team has fukked me quite a bit lately, really dumb of me. Oh well.

At least those props won. Well "won", I actually hedged live on the -20.5 cause the odds of the hedge were too good to pass up (only had to surrender 50 of the 150 profit, with them up 26 going into the 4th, at that point I felt a garbage time run was still very possible and it nearly happened so I don't regret it much.

[KRIT]

Nice hit on the alt spreads Seto. I like Grizz as well. All i had to see was Hawks coming off the big win vs GS and Memphis coming off the loss to Minny to make my decision.

I like Raptors later, any opinion on that game. I know Spurs are rested and healthy, but they still struggle against athletic teams.

[Seto]

Nice hit on the alt spreads Seto. I like Grizz as well. All i had to see was Hawks coming off the big win vs GS and Memphis coming off the loss to Minny to make my decision.

I like Raptors later, any opinion on that game. I know Spurs are rested and healthy, but they still struggle against athletic teams.

I like Toronto but I'm not sure. I just feel like the line has value and books are overvaluing the Spurs who aren't really anything special as of yet, but it's still a tough game.

That and the TWolves are sorta-kinda leans for me, still undecided on whether I bet either.

[Seto]

Today: 4-2, +8.6x
Total: 127-204-2, +19.37x

Good couple of days.

As an added bonus I put some more on Memphis live when they went down so got a few extra winnings.

Then the Bulls nearly ruined the day for me by giving up a late 9-0 run to Orlando but countered with this miracle.

0:32		91-97	Tobias Harris clear path foul (Jimmy Butler draws the foul)
0:32		92-97	Kyle O'Quinn enters the game for Channing Frye
0:32	Jimmy Butler makes free throw clear path 1 of 2	92-97
0:32	Jimmy Butler makes free throw clear path 2 of 2	93-97
0:32	Bulls 20 Sec. timeout
0:28		93-97	Victor Oladipo kicked ball violation
0:19	Derrick Rose makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)	96-97
0:19	Magic Full timeout
0:19		96-97	Channing Frye enters the game for Elfrid Payton
0:19		96-97	Evan Fournier enters the game for Kyle O'Quinn
0:18	Pau Gasol personal foul (Victor Oladipo draws the foul)	96-97
0:15		96-97	Evan Fournier back court turnover
0:15	Bulls Full timeout
0:15		96-97	Elfrid Payton enters the game for Channing Frye
0:15		96-97	Kyle O'Quinn enters the game for Evan Fournier
0:09	Derrick Rose misses 8-foot two point shot	98-97
0:09	Pau Gasol makes two point shot	98-97
0:09	Pau Gasol offensive rebound	96-97
0:09	Magic 20 Sec. timeout
0:09		98-97	Channing Frye enters the game for Kyle O'Quinn
0:01		98-97	Nikola Vucevic misses jumper
0:00		98-97	Tobias Harris misses
0:00		98-97	Tobias Harris offensive rebound
0:00	Pau Gasol defensive rebound	98-97