NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

And that they are a dog helps as much as, if not more than, being on the road.

I missed the dog part, thanks emceeaye

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Just updated the spreadsheet. Sixers/Spurs Under 197.5 (line has moved down now tho) looks to be a pretty good play.

These trends are very similar, with the first one just allowing for a slightly larger sample size.

205>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

200>=total>=190 and streak>=3 and o:streak<=-3 and season>2008

Thanks Cutler! I'm jumping on any reasonable under I can find on Sundays Mondays Tuesdays and Thursdays!

**nash13** · 12-01-14, 03:52 PM

I added a few CollegeFB trends, very promising on totals.

**emceeaye** · 12-01-14, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Or if you want a larger sample size add in [Sunday,Monday,Tuesday] , I think it hits at around 69%...

Nice!

**GolfAddict** · 12-01-14, 04:23 PM

Don't see much in tonights games. Hopefully I can get find something for tomorrow.

**emceeaye** · 12-01-14, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by nash13

I added a few CollegeFB trends, very promising on totals.

Nash thanks for including those... One of those does pretty well in December:

p:rushing yards>300 and line>-10 and month=12

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-01-14, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Thanks Cutler! I'm jumping on any reasonable under I can find on Sundays Mondays Tuesdays and Thursdays!

You obviously have something in mind. How do you feel about filtering for days of the week? Is it just a matter of teams being flatter in games that aren't as high profile?

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 05:30 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-1-14 - 4:22p CT

Play Phil +11

SDQL:

H and line>10 and P:L and Po

oints>=100 and p

L and p:ats margin>0

English: uggh my Phil play of the year...wish me well. Note under as well. Remember Lakers/Thunder last year?

Play home dog of more than 10- off a dog loss but covered, revenging a loss where the oppt scored 100 or more.

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by JMon

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-1-14 - 4:22p CT

Play Phil +11

SDQL:

H and line>10 and P:L and Po

oints>=100 and p

L and p:ats margin>0

English: uggh my Phil play of the year...wish me well. Note under as well. Remember Lakers/Thunder last year?

Play home dog of more than 10- off a dog loss but covered, revenging a loss where the oppt scored 100 or more.

Good luck jmon. You have 2 or 3 queries backing you up so you should be fine, as long as you make sure not to watch the game. It's tough to bet on a team and then watch them brick freethrows the entire game...

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-01-14, 05:41 PM

Love the pick Jmon. Supports the larger trends from the spreadsheet.

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

You obviously have something in mind. How do you feel about filtering for days of the week? Is it just a matter of teams being flatter in games that aren't as high profile?

Cutler there is some kind of anomaly going on where out of 82 games played on these days so far this season, 59.5% have gone under. Unfortunately, who knows when that will reverse itself? But I am going to bet that it won't reverse itself today...

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-01-14, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Cutler there is some kind of anomaly going on where out of 82 games played on these days so far this season, 59.5% have gone under. Unfortunately, who knows when that will reverse itself? But I am going to bet that it won't reverse itself today...

Well, whatever the rationale, I'm on it too

. Good to get familiar with these little wrinkles. As we get more and more quality in the available trends, it's good to know which ones have filters that might be marginal long term.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-01-14, 06:42 PM

Thanks to nash13, I caught my mistake on the spreadsheet.

T-wolves are on 3 trends tonight (thought they were on two and Clippers were on the other):

H and p:AW and pp:AW and season > 2008 (150-121, 56.8%)

AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and on:H and 10 <= game number <= 60 and season >= 2009 (77-40, 65.8)

AD and p:AL and p:margin <= -13 and tA(points) >= 100 and o:WP >= 60 and o:rest > 0 (108-52, 67.5%)

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

Well, whatever the rationale, I'm on it too

. Good to get familiar with these little wrinkles. As we get more and more quality in the available trends, it's good to know which ones have filters that might be marginal long term.

I guess I'm not doing anything different as far as I would probably bet on these under queries anyway. The only difference is I am ignoring about 5 other over queries that I normally might have bet on, before I lost about 5 or six over bets yesterday...

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by pip2

I guess I'm not doing anything different as far as I would probably bet on these under queries anyway. The only difference is I am ignoring about 5 other over queries that I normally might have bet on, before I lost about 5 or six over bets yesterday...

10 losing days out of 30... pip working with the same queries or most..need to get sharper. Way too many bets yesterday; I had three and all won. My problem I can't find a best bet...lol

NBA

Final

CHICAGO
BROOKLYN

102
84

CHICAGO -3.5 (-105)

Win

5.25

5.00

Final

Golden State Warriors
DETROIT

104
93

Golden State Warriors -9 (-110)

Win

5.50

5.00

Final

MEMPHIS
Sacramento Kings

97
85

Under 194.5 (-110)

Win

5.50

5.0

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 08:04 PM

My god...if Phil does not hit; I'll never bet them the rest of the year regardless of the situation. fukking pathetic team; worse then the 09 Nets. Funny is...I bet the situation and not the team...horrific.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-01-14, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by JMon

My god...if Phil does not hit; I'll never bet them the rest of the year regardless of the situation. fukking pathetic team; worse then the 09 Nets. Funny is...I bet the situation and not the team...horrific.

I guess it just depends on how someone likes to play, but when Consig posted the overall results for unique trend plays the other day, it was pretty eye opening. I'm sure there will be losing days like yesterday, but it seems to make sense to play as many solid trends as possible and ride it over time. There would be ups and downs, but theoretically would generally be up, right?

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 08:42 PM

Jmon, how do you handle your bankroll as far as picking your unit size? Are your units 2% of your total bankroll, and do you bet more or fewer units according to how much confidence you have in a query?

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by Cutler'sThumb

I guess it just depends on how someone likes to play, but when Consig posted the overall results for unique trend plays the other day, it was pretty eye opening. I'm sure there will be losing days like yesterday, but it seems to make sense to play as many solid trends as possible and ride it over time. There would be ups and downs, but theoretically would generally be up, right?

sharp... getting ahead of myself betting on a shitty team.

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 09:27 PM

Well done jmon, you earned every penny on that one!

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Jmon, how do you handle your bankroll as far as picking your unit size? Are your units 2% of your total bankroll, and do you bet more or fewer units according to how much confidence you have in a query?

I already covered this with culter in a PM and many other's as well. I've been at this going on 4 years now (gambling for over 15 years). Understand..sdql is no "get rich- find all" system. It's just another handicapping system like the rest. In general, if you think you are going to get rich betting sports, pick another hobby- seriously it's not going to happen. House edge = juice, on the dime it takes 52.38% to breakeven. Know this..it's important with volume player.

But I will tell you this... I never had a more enjoyable experience gambling than and I have using sdql. I haven't had a reload in 2+ years. That in itself says a lot. IMO, Using sdql you flat bet and % your roll. I do 5%. If you see 4 trends on one side and a 87% trend siding with it...it will lose. Like any other sports better..sdql players will go on bad runs. I've been on many. Flat betting a % will get you through them. There are more good runs and mediocre runs than bad runs- thus the flat betting.

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Well done jmon, you earned every penny on that one!

**pip2** · 12-01-14, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by JMon

I already covered this with culter in a PM and many other's as well. I've been at this going on 4 years now (gambling for over 15 years). Understand..sdql is no "get rich- find all" system. It's just another handicapping system like the rest. In general, if you think you are going to get rich betting sports, pick another hobby- seriously it's not going to happen. House edge = juice, on the dime it takes 52.38% to breakeven. Know this..it's important with volume player.

But I will tell you this... I never had a more enjoyable experience gambling than and I have using sdql. I haven't had a reload in 2+ years. That in itself says a lot. IMO, Using sdql you flat bet and % your roll. I do 5%. If you see 4 trends on one side and a 87% trend siding with it...it will lose. Like any other sports better..sdql players will go on bad runs. I've been on many. Flat betting a % will get you through them. There are more good runs and mediocre runs than bad runs- thus the flat betting.

Got it! Thanks!

**JMon** · 12-01-14, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Got it! Thanks!

**Mako-SBR** · 12-02-14, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by pip2

Well done jmon, you earned every penny on that one!

Good thing I didn't watch that game, would have been going nuts...

Denver screwed up a perfect card in the final three seconds, lost by a half point ATS. But can't complain at 2-1 tonight regardless. Keep up the great work all, quite a run we're on.

Originally posted by pip2

Thanks Ronald, I think I'm going to need some luck because this is kind of a chase bet after losing so many over bets yesterday...

Am currently 31-15 on the season for sides, but went 5-10 on totals before putting them on an indeterminate "pause" last week...

Done with them until things either settle down or we figure out a better approach, got too frustrated watching them ruin a good day's worth of side plays.

**pip2** · 12-02-14, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Good thing I didn't watch that game, would have been going nuts...

Denver screwed up a perfect card in the final three seconds, lost by a half point ATS. But can't complain at 2-1 tonight regardless. Keep up the great work all, quite a run we're on.

Am currently 31-15 on the season for sides, but went 5-10 on totals before putting them on an indeterminate "pause" last week...

Done with them until things either settle down or we figure out a better approach, got too frustrated watching them ruin a good day's worth of side plays.

The thing about the totals is that they seem to be way wrong by half time or the first quarter. I understand that when a single basket can make a game go one way or another, then you have to expect slumps that go the wrong way for a while, but most of these games seem like they are dozens of points off. I'm starting to miss those games where 2 teams need 1 more point to hit the total, and they miss 10 free-throws in the last minute of the game to stay under...

**nash13** · 12-02-14, 09:49 AM

Added my own Trust Ratings for NHL and MLB Trends. I update them yearly in my own records. Will transfer them to NBA and others.

**Heart** · 12-02-14, 11:10 AM

Where can I find the spreadsheet? This stuff is right up my alley and maybe I can be of some help as I climb the learning curve. I Looked through several pages of the thread for it with no luck.. it's 63 pages long.. anyone familiar with this thread willing to point me to where abouts in the thread I can find it?

**Ronald S.** · 12-02-14, 11:31 AM

NBA Best Bet

12/2/14 11:30 AM EST

Phoenix -6 -105 (vs Indiana) (5dimes)

H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2011
SU: 66-12 (10.99, 84.6%)
ATS: 52-24-2 (3.62, 68.4%) avg line: -7.4
H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2012
SU: 49-9 (11.55, 84.5%)
ATS: 40-16-2 (4.59, 71.4%) avg line: -7.0
H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2011 and -10.5 <= line <= -4.5
SU: 40-5 (12.51, 88.9%)
ATS: 33-10-2 (4.64, 76.7%) avg line: -7.9
H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2012 and -10.5 <= line <= -4.5
SU: 31-4 (12.66, 88.6%)
ATS: 25-8-2 (4.67, 75.8%) avg line: -8.0

Play the home team coming off a loss as a large home favorite in their previous game. This trend is hitting at a phenomenal rate in the last 2-3 years. Even going back to 2008, it is above 60% and numbers improve across the board if we restrict it to home favorites between -4.5 and -10.5

**hyahya** · 12-02-14, 11:44 AM

NBA Best Bet
12/2/2014 8:43AM PDT

Toronto -1.5 (-110)

A and p:AFL and 1 <= rest <= 2 and season >= 2010

Play an away team off an away loss as a favorite with average rest.

**dmitean** · 12-02-14, 12:38 PM

Posted today's queries (queries with today's games in them) in the doc file.

**JMon** · 12-02-14, 12:45 PM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 50-42-1 54.3% (+5.25) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 1-1 (-.05)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 8-8 (+.10)

2. pip2 - 8-6 (+1.69)

3. nash13 - 6-3 (+2.87)

4. Ronald S. - 7-6 (+.55)

5. hyahya - 5-4 (+.55)

6. Mako-SBR - 5-7 (-2.70)

7. FlyinAir - 1-2 (-1.45)

8. Consigliere - 7-3-1 (+3.84)

9. Sports Mind - 2-0 (+2.00)

10. GolfAddict - 1-3 (-2.20)

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-02-14, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

Posted today's queries (queries with today's games in them) in the doc file.

Thanks dmitean!
As I've been doing it for the last week or so I keep thinking it might be worth it to just pay KS to do it automatically. Maybe I'm still slow, but it takes me a good 30 min to go thru them all and do a little analysis.

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-02-14, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Ronald S.

NBA Best Bet

12/2/14 11:30 AM EST

Phoenix -6 -105 (vs Indiana) (5dimes)

H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2011
SU: 66-12 (10.99, 84.6%)
ATS: 52-24-2 (3.62, 68.4%) avg line: -7.4
H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2012
SU: 49-9 (11.55, 84.5%)
ATS: 40-16-2 (4.59, 71.4%) avg line: -7.0
H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2011 and -10.5 <= line <= -4.5
SU: 40-5 (12.51, 88.9%)
ATS: 33-10-2 (4.64, 76.7%) avg line: -7.9
H and p:HFL and p:line <= -8 and season >= 2012 and -10.5 <= line <= -4.5
SU: 31-4 (12.66, 88.6%)
ATS: 25-8-2 (4.67, 75.8%) avg line: -8.0

Play the home team coming off a loss as a large home favorite in their previous game. This trend is hitting at a phenomenal rate in the last 2-3 years. Even going back to 2008, it is above 60% and numbers improve across the board if we restrict it to home favorites between -4.5 and -10.5

Love this one Ronald. Let's get the one going back to '08 on the spreadsheet if it isn't already.
*Just put it in. Went all the way back to 2002 and it was still over 60% with a healthy 133 games to sample from. Feel free to change it back to the more recent seasons, I just like to see the volume of plays up there. The fact that it has done so well more recently is all the better

**Mako-SBR** · 12-02-14, 02:46 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-2-14 - 11:40a PST

Play: OKC (-2.5) NO -110

SDQL:
H and p:A and rest>=2 and p:fouls<15 and season>=2013

English:
Fading a rested home team after losing their last game away, drawing far fewer fouls than the norm in said game.

Notes:
KD is back, which probably throws this query out the window as both a lot of eyeballs will be on this one tonight and NO will surely be fired up. Lets play along and roll the dice anyway, I like to put my most aggressive/risky play as my Best Bet, and it's working out real well so far at 5-7 for them lol...

Also tailing Ronald's query pick tonight as well as NBA107 and NBA33 picks in the DB...let's get it!

Originally posted by nash13

Added my own Trust Ratings for NHL and MLB Trends. I update them yearly in my own records. Will transfer them to NBA and others.

Thanks nash, very nice.