I never saw the DEN game hit PK, at least not on a majority of books within 20 minutes of gametime. Seems shady taking that game out.
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Bookman I suggest you go back to SBR and count the number of casinos that had Pick to -1.
Dimes, bet on line, Jazz, ABC Is, Intertops, Blackdog, Rebate wager and the Greek all had Pick and 6 other casinos had -1. Thats 14 casinos that ranged between pick and -1 and even at -1 DEN was a push. Of course there were some at - 1.5, but they were not in the majority.
Look we all can find Casinos that favor us. As a matter of fact I saw -5 on CLE which would make this game a push. Of course I went with the majority of casinos and took the loss.Comment -
Touting other sites? You have got to be kidding me. LVSC isnt a website...it stands for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. And yes I will continue to follow their power ratings because they are the most up to date and most realistic out there.Comment -
Rob, if LVSC's PR's are so good, up to date and realistic, why are you in this thread. I am very familiar with LVSC they are nothing but a glorified sports service and their PR's suck. Their in the same category as Jeff Sagarin from USA Today and if you utilize their PR's you will lose a fortune very quickly. I am not a tout, but if there is one sports service whose PR's can be trusted and are the most accurate, thats sportrends. They have developed numerous handicapping systems that LVSC probably copied or modified in some way. As a matter of fact they developed the Christmas system, which people are using in this forum and other sports forums throughout the internet. I believe in our forum its called the 70% system.
Look this thread is here for one purpose only and thats to test our PR system and improve it if we can. We dont need people putting their .02 in by touting other sports services who basically suck.
Oh by the way Rob, using LVCS's up to date and most realistic PR's yesterday, we would have gone 4-6-1. I guess that pretty good.
In addition, if any Las Vegas Casino would use their projected lines and PR's they would be nuts.Comment -
Ok then why do 70% of the sportsbooks across the world rely on las Vegas Sports Consultants to put the opening lines and totals on all the games? LVSC isnt a glorified sports service of touts you dont know what your talking about. Kenny White is the most respected oddsmaker in Las Vegas if not around the world. Sportrends is nothing more than a software program. If you are going to compare Sportrends to Las Vegas Sports Consultants I would advise that you stop right now because quite frankly you are embarrassing yourself on here and experienced bettors who know of LVSC will laugh at you.Comment -
"Bookman I suggest you go back to SBR and count the number of casinos that had Pick to -1.
Dimes, bet on line, Jazz, ABC Is, Intertops, Blackdog, Rebate wager and the Greek all had Pick and 6 other casinos had -1."
I just did....10 books are listed on SBR and only 2 had a PK --- Dimes and BetOnline. The Greek and the other 7 had -1-1.5, so the game was a play. We counted Orlando (winner) Sunday because the majority of books had the right line, so for the same reasons we should count Denver yesterday.
I'm not trying to be a troublemaker, its just that I guarantee you most people following this system and thread closely (and correctly) called Denver a play last night.Comment -
Rob,
Do us all a favor along with Kenny White, Mike Seba and Tony Sinisi from LVSC who I all know personally and who know me. I am a professional player myself who has been around for over 30 years. I have seen every system you can imagine, some good and some that suck and I am telling you for a fact 99.9% of the PR's generated by individuals suck. Most of them are no more than a ranking system which is useless. I just proved to you if you would have used LVSC PR's yesterday you would have lost your ass, period and I can assure you a 4-6 record is good for them.
By the way I hate to bust your bubble but the most respected oddsmaker in the country is Jeff Sagarin from MIT. I know for a fact 90% of the casinos use his lines.
LVSC or anyone else can bullshit all they want on their website, that they generate lines for a majority of all casinos. Just is not true.Comment -
Funny, I just talked to Seba and he said he never heard of you.Comment -
Please you really show your ignorance now. Do you really think Mike Seba knows my made up handle of Formulawiz on this forum. Secondly, because someone can generate a line, does that mean that generated line can pick winners. Well the answer is NO.
Thats it, you have taken up enough of my time. I am asking you nicely to stop touting LVSC and unless you have something of value to add, keep it to yourself.Comment -
Formulawiz,
WHAT!!!!
Thats not your real name????
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On weighting recent games
What I would do is determine who is hot / cold and find teams where the hot/cold analysis matches the Formulawiz stuff. You find hot/cold by going back over the previous games until you spot a trend that differs from a previous trend. For example, over the last 4 games a team might be 1-3 ATS, that team is cold, while over the last 10 games they are 7-3, so why would I use the last 4 games instead of the last 10? Well, if the previous 6 games ATS were 6-0 folowed by the 1-3 record, the 1-3 record is a different tend from the 6-0 record. So, I would stick with the 1-3 instead of saying the team is 7-3. If, on the other hand the wins/losses were sprinkled throughout so that the trend was 7-3, with no heavy bias at any point in the 7-3, then I would use 7-3 and say the team is hot. So, if Team A had LWLLWWWWWW, I would call them cold and 1-3. And if Team B had WWLWWLWWLW I would call them Hot and 7-3.
I find it is pretty easy to spot the correct trend just by looking at the ATS record over the schedule in reverse order.
Once you find the teams that are hot/cold then I would see if the ratings analysis matches the hot/cold analysis. In other words for a hot team do the ratings say they are a play? And, for a cold team do the ratings say to fade them?
I have been using the hot/cold matchup all season and it is astonishingly accurate. Filtered by your ratings stuff might make it even more potent.
IMHOComment -
Didnt give him your handle..I assume that is your real name on your email address? Listen, I am done with you too. Anyone who remotely thinks that Jeff Sagarin is responsible for all the opening betting lines across the world needs their head examined. And it was nice of you to go to LVSC's website and read up on them...even get some names to throw around to make you look like you knew them.Comment -
Curious, You have a terrific idea. Is there any way you could incorporate your idea into the spreadsheet. Earlier I had mentioned about front loading to give more weight to the most recent scores.
Also I am sure you are aware that you can use the spreadsheet to come up with more recent games by changing the date. So instead of using the entire season as I do for part of my analysis, you can use a date that will only take you back 5 games. I also analyze games using the PR's based on a short term analysis and then compare the two.
But I still think the front end loading is a good way to go because your weighing the most recent scores more heavily.Comment -
Determining who is hot/cold cannot be automated. You have to look at the schedule in reverse from todays' date. A human being can "see" patterns like that, but you could never train a computer to see them. Ratings have nothing to do with hot/cold. During the hot/cold streak the team might not rate high because I use ATS for dogs and SU for favs.
What I am suggesting is you first make the hot / cold list then see if the ratings support the list. And take the plays where both are in agreement. Seems to me that this would be a hell of a filter.
If you don't want to do the hot/cold work just take my picks every day, my picks are done from hot cold. Then run my picks through your analysis and see if anything matches up.Comment -
[quote=robfl22;1490681]Here, no need to go thru all of that. Just get the power ratings straight from the horses mouth... from the people who post the opening lines. Recent games weigh more than games 2-3-4-5 weeks ago.
LVSC NBA Rankings - Week 14
LVSC RankTeam (Record)RatingPrevious Rank
why are these rankings any better than others? Every site has different "power ratings" why not use ESPN? Teddy covers? Football jesus ratings, or vegas Insiders? ratings are different, why are these treated diffeently, different ratings produce better resultsComment -
"Bookman,
Did you look at the 14 casinos I just listed that had between pick and -1."
As I stated, I did do that and the majority were not PK. Between PK and -1 is exactly the gray area I'm pointing too....you called the game a no-play because it was a PK, when indeed it is probably less confusing and more accurate within the rules (due to the MAJORITY OF BOOKS OFFERING -1) to call it a push.Comment -
Bookman, there are very few times when the systems PR's are very close to the overlay and of course this becomes a grey area. A majority of the DEN lines yesterday ranged between pk and -1. Yes you are correct I could have called it a push, my mistake, but it did not matter for record keeping.
Look at tonights game IND/PHI. For record keeping this game is definitely a push because the majority of casinos had PHI at 5. But lets be realistic, the PHI game would have been a play all the way down to 4.5. It did not get there so this game was a definite play. Therefore anyone playing the game would get the best possible line out there. Obvioulsy there were quite a few casinos offering 5.5, so why would I take 5 when I can get 5.5. Since I was fortunate to get 5.5 I was a winner. Obviously there is no way to accurately keep such records because again this is another grey area. I believe the system rules are probably too stringent, but I cant think of any better way then to use the closing lines of the majority of casinos to keep it fair.
In analyzing the DEN game the other night, many of my other systems strongly pointed to DEN. I was also fortunate to get the game at Pick which turned out to be a winner for me. Of course there were other individuals who pushed on the game at -1 and others who lost at -1.5, buts thats the way it is. Fortunately for me it was 2 wins not reflected in the win/loss records.
Thats why it is very important to use other systems to confirm your plays.Comment -
Thank you Wiz....that's all I was saying. This system requires some savvy with the pre-game lines as any good system does. I just felt you glossed over a game that allows for a perfect teaching opportunity, to explain to everyone how such a line can lead to three distinct outcomes (PK-no play, -1-push, -1.5-lose), noting the line you got for record-keeping purposes. Such a lesson will be beneficial, as it will cause those following along to take very seriously your rule about waiting and watching for line changes.Comment -
Todays NBA-PR Chart and Record
1-0-1 yesterday
YTD 47-29 =61.8%
If you read my last post IND was a win for me at 5.5, but because the majority of casinos had the line at 5 our record will reflect a push. As Bookman points out there are grey areas in handicapping and thats the way it is.
If you follow college it went 2-1 last night. It seems college is on fire.
By the way I personally skip Ivy league games. Their just a strange breed. Again thats just me and if your interested just look at PR's and make your own determination.
By the way I forgot to mention, yesterday LAK was the stongest play I had all year. I cant remember loading up on any game like this one. I even had my house, wife, dog and kids on the line. I just could not believe the public ran this game up to 7. They had to be out of their minds.
Todays plays will be up later.
Todays NBA-PR chartAttached FilesComment -
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just had a questions about home advantage! What's the whole idea behind it? When your dealing with the Overall PR why isn't it used? When your using HPR it must be added to each home teams PR ranking.Comment -
I would agree, when using home/away PR's you should add 3 points for HCA. In one of my my earlier post I indicated sportrends recommended I use 3 points for overall PR's but I found it drastically limited my plays. In college hoops its the opposite situation, I get too many plays so I factor in the HCA and it does very well.Comment -
Well in a way isn't good it limits your plays as your only getting the more solid plays? Also is it not a good idea to follow a certain system rather then doing 1 or the other? There is a site I have been using which is very good, it's updated on a daily basis and give's me Overall PR, Last 10 PR, Home PR, Away PR and a bunch more, it also gives you the home advantage figure in each of those category's. Now do you only add the HC advantage when the Home team has the high PR or do you add that figure to the Home team everytime?Comment -
also whats the thing behind checking your play with the home/away PR? that will give you a different figure? Is that just to make sure you have the same team has the correct outcome within both different calculations?Comment -
Ill be honest with you, I really dont care or pay attention to any other sports sites PR's except for sportrends because their numbers are right on. As I mentioned in previous posts you can use the spreadsheet to calculate 10, 15 or entire season PR's depending on the date you go back to. I do this as part of my analysis. I have found most of the PR's listed on the internet are no more then glorified ranking systems. My goal is to win and I dont care who is ranked 1st, 2nd or third. I have found over the years 3 points is a very good value for HCA. As far as limiting plays in the NBA, well its just the way I have been handicapping over the years. Look anyone can use this PR system and get different results then I get. I am just telling people the experience I have with using the system. Thats why I am always asking people for ideas because there may be a better way.
I also am looking for people who can help automate the college hoops spreadsheet, but have no success yet.
By the way tomorrow I will post the new NBA spreadsheet. Its seems to make the picks correctly now thanks to DATA.Comment -
the web-site is www.teamrankings.com
It states that game location is 1 of the many items that goes into their PR ranking. Well what's the reason for displaying the Home Advantage figure on each chart? If it's already included why display it? Unless you have to add it to each home team!
It's confusing and not clearly stated on the site.Comment -
does anyone have the pro basketball prophet for windows? how does it workComment -
Todays NBA Plays
Based on Early lines here are the MIN/MAX lines for NBA plays
ORL - 6 or <
BOS - 9 or <
LAC + 4 or >
POR - 8 or <
DEN - 7.5 or <
UTA - 8 or <
GS + 7 or > to 9.5
Good luckComment -
would love the college spreadsheet as I have been doing college for about 2 weeks now but hate saturdays and having to do so many games
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NBA Plays yesterday
Yesterdays plays went 3-2, DEN & ORL dropped off.
YTD 50-31 = 61.7%
Its unbelievable, I shut my computer down at 9:50 PM est after putting in my last play with UTA. Not 1 casino had GS less then +10, not one. I woke up this morning and I was amazed to find the GS line drop to +9.5, which made GS a play. Luckily I missed that game. Something must have happened within the last 10 minutes to move every casino to +9.5. I guess the fix was in. Although I had a nice winning night at 3-1 using our system, I picked up 2 additional wins with DEN and NO using sportrends PR plays. For the record GS will reflect the loss.
As I mentioned several times, I use Sportrends PR's to confirm my plays. Usually their PR's only generate a few games, but yesterday it came up with 5 games which is very unusual and it went 4-1. As long as both systems are not opposite plays its good to go. The 2 games it happened to agree on were BOS and UTA and I loaded up on them.Comment
