New nba power rating system

[Formulawiz]

Todays NBA PR Chart

NBA PR Chart

[MJAZER]

When I turn my macros on and try to update scores i get an Visual Basic runtime error '91', but it updates the scores to the schedule tab but does not update all the games on the stats or lines tab. Like for 2/2 it only had 1 game up on the lines.

Same is happening to me??

[Bookman]

System record

Wiz is right....this is his system and his thread, so I will let him post the plays/results/record. Keeping track from multiple start dates will simply confuse everyone so lets leave the tracking up to Wiz and we can all follow along and keep him honest if needed.

Charlotte let us down in the late game last night, but 2-1 ain't bad at all.

[Formulawiz]

Todays NBA Plays

Today we have 3 NBA plays
BOS - 1 to - 6 max
CHI + 6.5 or >
SAN + 4 or >

If I made a mistake with min/max lines let me know

[Formulawiz]

Same is happening to me??

You guys have to read the instruction I posted. On 2 /1 the NBA closing lines and Box scores were located in a different area at scoresandodds.
You need to go to the lines sheet, right click on any data and change the 1 to a 2, but remember to change back to a 1.
I think you were trying to copy the NFL scores into the stats sheet and it probably gave you an error.
I will be posting the new NBA spreadsheet ver 7 very shortly. I thank DATA for correcting the formula where it makes the picks. I am tracking it for a few more days to make sure it works properly and so far it does.

[Pensinger1]

wiz,

do you take into account injuries or other situational variables or are you supposed to just play the system and it's numbers..

bos opened up @ -2 only cuz of KG being out. not sure if you use this kind of information regarding system plays.. obviously it would be much closer to -5.5 or -6 if he were playing.

san played ot last night as we all know and they are pretty bad ats on b2b games (2-4 i think).. add in the high altitude of denver and this is not a very good spot for san imo..

just wondering if you use facts like these in choosing plays or if you ignore injuries and other situations..

thanks

[Formulawiz]

wiz,

do you take into account injuries or other situational variables or are you supposed to just play the system and it's numbers..

bos opened up @ -2 only cuz of KG being out. not sure if you use this kind of information regarding system plays.. obviously it would be much closer to -5.6 or -6 if he were playing.

san played ot last night as we all know and they are pretty bad ats on b2b games (2-4 i think).. add in the high altitude of denver and this is not a very good spot for san imo..

just wondering if you use facts like these in choosing plays or if you ignore injuries and other situations..

thanks

I don't pay to much attention to the factors you mentioned above for the following reasons. The line always reflects injuries, # of games a team has played B2B , which team the public will probably put there money on and so forth. What this system does is come up with PR's based on teams past performances the way it was explained to me by sportrends. What we hope happens is the linesmaker either over-estimates or under-estimates the line and in doing so gives us a play on a particular team. Now we know it does not work all the time because the linesmaker is correct sometimes. We hope to catch him when he is wrong most of the time. Secondly, do you really think SAN would be a 6 pt dog if all the conditions were in their favor. I hope I did not confuse you or myself.

[smsutto]

I'm with you on San. Den never plays well against the spurs. The spurs normally have thier number. I say the spurs win out right.

[Pensinger1]

wiz,

no confusion at all, i completely understand what you are saying with regards to the system and the line-setting.

of course the spurs wouldn't be 6pt dogs, ordinarily speaking. but it looks like the bookies are smelling a 10+pt win from denver tonight, given the situation.. we will see tho.

gl to you tonight

[Cranium]

Has anyone calculated CBB plays for tonight? I came up with Purdue -2.5 or < and South Carolina +5 or >.
Any confirmation would be great.
Thanks for the plays today Wiz.
Cranium

[Achilles15]

I could give a shit about football jesus or any other tout.
just curious about the record since it has been brought to the forums attention jack ass.
you said it was something like 18-4 before posting.
and than after posting it was hitting at about 50%
so why not keep an accurate record with documented plays

i dont really think footbal Jesus is a tout, i have never see a game of the year, or a place to put in my credit card, LOL

lets win these plays tonite gents

[robfl22]

wiz,

no confusion at all, i completely understand what you are saying with regards to the system and the line-setting.

of course the spurs wouldn't be 6pt dogs, ordinarily speaking. but it looks like the bookies are smelling a 10+pt win from denver tonight, given the situation.. we will see tho.

gl to you tonight

You make valid points. If anything the linesmaker will overinflate the line when it comes to injuries and other subjective factors like back to backs. Each player has a value to the line so to speak. The squares will look at the game and immeidately say.."Garnett is out tonight I am betting the sixers!". Thats what the books want to happen so they overinflate the line adjustment. They know garnett is worth about 4 points to the line...Instead of 6, they make it 2. Formulawiz is also correct. Everything is built in and already accounted for. You are looking for an overinflation or underinflation of the line depending on the circumstance.

[Formulawiz]

NBA plays today and yesterday and NBA PR- Chart

Yesterday the system went 0 - 1 - 1
YTD 46 - 26 = 63.9%

Todays games based on early lines
CLE - 9 or <
HOU - 7.5 or <
DEN - 8 or <
NO - 2 or <
PHO - 3 or <


Todays NBA PR chart

[tiojeta]

[QUOTE=Formulawiz;1486199]Yesterday the system went 0 - 1 - 1
YTD 46 - 26 = 63.9%

Todays games based on early lines
CLE - 9 or <
HOU - 7.5 or <
DEN - 8 or <
NO - 2 or <
PHO - 3 or <



Ok, those are a play?
Should I bet to those teams, like a CLE if my booker offers CLE -9 or less?
I am a little confused

[NBA Hero]

thanks for the math.
i have a question, if a starter is injured like in NOH. is it good to play or use discretion?

[Bookman]

The San Antonio game last night is a perfect illustration of one of the most discussed rules in this system: 20 minutes before tipoff the Parker/Duncan/Gino news came out and the line popped from 6 to 11 immediately, meaning the game was a no play due to the DD line. Granted, we dropped a winner, but it wouldn't have won at 6. Fascinating.

Tiojeta: Check the rules on page 1....the listed ranges are based on opening/current lines, but the final decision on playing a game has to be made 10-15 minutes before tip.

[Ditaln1]

Yes Tiojeta. That's basically what it's saying. Take Cleveland up to -9, if it goes to -9.5 or more, don't take them. Same for the other games.

[Formulawiz]

[quote=tiojeta;1486605]

Yesterday the system went 0 - 1 - 1
YTD 46 - 26 = 63.9%

Todays games based on early lines
CLE - 9 or <
HOU - 7.5 or <
DEN - 8 or <
NO - 2 or <
PHO - 3 or <



Ok, those are a play?
Should I bet to those teams, like a CLE if my booker offers CLE -9 or less?
I am a little confused

Yes, these are the MIN/MAX parameters for each game. Only make plays 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off.

[tiojeta]

Thanks.
I asked, because the Denver @ Oklahoma City - Dever -5.5 jump to +152, and thinking if I was reading wrong.
I am going to take right now

[Ditaln1]

Reason why Denver dropped to -2.5 is because Billups is questionable with the flu. It opened at -5, moved down to -3, then back to -3.5 and now back down to -2.5 .

[tiojeta]

Then, if a starter is not playing, is NOT a play?

[Achilles15]

Then, if a starter is not playing, is NOT a play?

thats a easy excuse, what is a starter? still no ruling on that, so its a play regardless. the line factors in WHO is playing, so if a guy started the last game , he IS A starter, otherwise, NO line up is the same week to week, and what about Ginobli, he doesnt start, but yet you guys count him as one

[Pensinger1]

thanks for the math.
i have a question, if a starter is injured like in NOH. is it good to play or use discretion?

imho, absolutely.

yesterday, the system went 0-1-1 with the posted plays: Chi +7, Bos -3.5. I was weary of playing both Bos and San (which turned out to be a no-play given DD spread) with the conditions they were playing under.

mad props to Wiz for posting the PR numbers every day and trying to help us all out, he is the man. but, if you add a few filters to this handicapping tool, i wouldn't be suprised if you could get the system to hit at a 70% clip..

for example, hornets playing w/out CP3 is an obvious no-play. they got out-scored like 7000-8 when he left the game the other night.. there offense is highly dependent on his presence. you might miss out on a win or 2 by adding filters, but I would bet you'd fade just as many losses as well.

the PR number system is a great starting point.. once you find plays that fit, find reasons not to make the plays and if you can't find any, make it a play.

just my .02

[casinojack]

they got out-scored like 7000-8 when he left the game the other night..

Made me laugh, but quoted for truth

[Formulawiz]

imho, absolutely.

yesterday, the system actually went 0-2-1 with the posted plays: Chi +7, Bos -3.5, and San +6. I was weary of playing both Bos and San given the conditions they were playing under (which as we came to find out, is why the spurs decided to sit thier top 3 players)

mad props to Wiz for posting the PR numbers every day and trying to help us all out, he is the man. but, if you add a few filters to this handicapping tool, i wouldn't be suprised if you could get the system to hit at a 70% clip..

for example, hornets playing w/out CP3 is an obvious no-play. they got out-scored like 7000-8 when he left the game the other night.. there offense is highly dependent on his presence. you might miss out on a win or 2 by adding filters, but I would bet you'd fade just as many losses as well.

the PR number system is a great starting point.. once you find plays that fit, find reasons not to make the plays and if you can't find any, make it a play and why you think the system cant hit over 70%. Have you ever used the system?

just my .02

I know your intentions are good, but you must read the rules and earlier posts before making a statement that the system really went 0-2 yesterday when it did not. All your really doing is confusing everyone. Now explain to us all why you think SAN was really a play.

[Pensinger1]

Today we have 3 NBA plays
BOS - 1 to - 6 max
CHI + 6.5 or >
SAN + 4 or >

I was referring to the games that you announced were plays.

I understand that you don't play any game w/ a double-digit spread (which the SAN game turned out to be minutes before tip-off). But according to your statement, these were the plays yesterday.

Now, you are pretty lucky that MOST of the bookies panic'd and saw that Ginobli, Duncan, and Parker were all out (some bookies didn't even alter the line, such as Bodog.. they had SAN +6 at tip-off). If the line doesn't change to +13, you play it SAN at +6 and the system goes 0-2-1 for the day.

Like I mentioned earlier.. this is a solid system, but imo other factors should be taken into account if you want to get your 60% clip up to 70%. When a system like this takes a loss, the loss should be annalyzed and in the future, such losses could be prevented. Most of the time, the loss will be random. For example, the Hornets being up by 15+, losing a key player, then losing by 10 is random, dumb luck. Or if the play is on ORL -8 @ SAC and the magic shoot 30% for the night, that is dumb luck and in the long run will not be happening. But, when we have a system loss, like Bos -3.5 was yesterday, think about why the system failed..most likely we can conclude that Bos didn't cover due to KG being out. Just as you mention w/ regards to DD spreads.. they are 50/50 in the long run.. well last night, with regards to the Bos game, I think they cover 50% of the time in that situation, last night happened to be a loser, but the next game with similar situational elements might be a winner.. the point is (as you well know Wiz), you want to avoid those 50/50 type situations and by doing so, bring your hit-rate up to 70%. again, my .02 is all, just trying to contribute, if anything i say is terribly off mark, please let me know.

- Pen

[Bookman]

Fair enough, Pensi....part of the purpose here is to test this system and perhaps tweak it to make it even better, and I think you make a good point. But as far as the score-keeping, Wiz is following the strict rules of his stated system, which is exactly how he should do it. Therefore, by the rules of this system, San Antonio was not a play, thus the system was indeed 0-1-1 yesterday as stated.

[Formulawiz]

I was referring to the games that you announced were plays.

I understand that you don't play any game w/ a double-digit spread (which the SAN game turned out to be minutes before tip-off). But according to your statement, these were the plays yesterday.

Now, you are pretty lucky that MOST of the bookies panic'd and saw that Ginobli, Duncan, and Parker were all out (some bookies didn't even alter the line, such as Bodog.. they had SAN +6 at tip-off). If the line doesn't change to +13, you play it SAN at +6 and the system goes 0-2-1 for the day.

Like I mentioned earlier.. this is a solid system, but imo other factors should be taken into account if you want to get your 60% clip up to 70%. When a system like this takes a loss, the loss should be annalyzed and in the future, such losses could be prevented. Most of the time, the loss will be random. For example, the Hornets being up by 15+, losing a key player, then losing by 10 is random, dumb luck. Or if the play is on ORL -8 @ SAC and the magic shoot 30% for the night, that is dumb luck and in the long run will not be happening. But, when we have a system loss, like Bos -3.5 was yesterday, think about why the system failed..most likely we can conclude that Bos didn't cover due to KG being out. Just as you mention w/ regards to DD spreads.. they are 50/50 in the long run.. well last night, with regards to the Bos game, I think they cover 50% of the time in that situation, last night happened to be a loser, but the next game with similar situational elements might be a winner.. the point is (as you well know Wiz), you want to avoid those 50/50 type situations and by doing so, bring your hit-rate up to 70%. again, my .02 is all, just trying to contribute, if anything i say is terribly off mark, please let me know.

- Pen

I post the systems plays early on based on the lines at that particular time. One of the rules I posted originally was make your plays 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off. The SAN game is exactly the type of situation we try to avoid. So when you make a statement the system really went 0 -2 and we are lucky the SAN line went to DD and we would have lost if it had stayed at -6 is confusing people. On the other hand how about those people who caught the game between 8.5 and 9.5 They were lucky because they won. You see there are 2 sides to every situation.

We all appreciate that you want to improve the system but you need alot of data to support your findings. I have been using this system for over 15 years and the rules that I posted seem to work the best over the years. As I stated previously, I dont really care if the entire starting team is out, If the system makes a play on that team I am confident the line will reflect this situation.

[Slate]

Why does everyone try and change the system, Formula says what is the system and that is that, if denver becomes no play because they are a double digit favorite, then it is a no play. Take the system for what it is. if there are no plays some nights then there are no plays.

Everyone needs to stop putting their two cents in and let Formula run his system.

Rule no 1 make your plays 15 minutes before the game starts, those are the lines that count.

[Pensinger1]

Why does everyone try and change the system, Formula says what is the system and that is that, if denver becomes no play because they are a double digit favorite, then it is a no play. Take the system for what it is. if there are no plays some nights then there are no plays.

Everyone needs to stop putting their two cents in and let Formula run his system.

Rule no 1 make your plays 15 minutes before the game starts, those are the lines that count.

You guys are right. If playing by the rules, and you waited till 10 min before tip-off on SAN, it went from being a play (loss) to a play (win) to a no-play.. so given these parameters, and the rules set forth by Wiz, it was ultimately a no-play. I will reflect my earlier post as to cause no confusion to anyone.

With regards to Slate: My bad, my bad... I totally thought this was a public sports-betting forum where we try to help each-other out.......... my bad.

[BoomerOK95]

Todays games based on early lines
CLE - 9 or < cle - only 6 , doesnt come in
HOU - 7.5 or < hou -6 still loses
DEN - 8 or < den - 1!! still doesnt cover
NO - 2 or < N.O - 1 gets killed
PHO - 3 or < well they laid 3 or 4 and werent even close

clearly we need some new "tweaking" to add some componets that a computer cant factor in here !!!

[Formulawiz]

NBA Plays yesterday

NBA plays yesterday went 0 - 3
Lost CLE, HOU and NO. DEN line ranged between Pick and - 1
YTD 46 - 29 = 61.3

Luckily had help from Col 4 - 2
Todays plays will up up shortly

[Formulawiz]

Todays NBA Plays

Today in the NBA we have
IND + 4.5 or >
LAK + 4.5 or >

[Formulawiz]

Todays games based on early lines
CLE - 9 or < cle - only 6 , doesnt come in
HOU - 7.5 or < hou -6 still loses
DEN - 8 or < den - 1!! still doesnt cover
NO - 2 or < N.O - 1 gets killed
PHO - 3 or < well they laid 3 or 4 and werent even close

clearly we need some new "tweaking" to add some componets that a computer cant factor in here !!!

I had an idea over the years but due to my Excel capabilities I just don't know how to do it.
Here is the idea and I guess we all heard of front load the power ratings. Its a way by which most recent games are weighted more heavily in the PR calculation.
I guess the way you would do it is each subsequent game is worth one more then the previous. I guess you would multiply all the scores by a weight and divide all the averages by the total of all the weights.
Hey "Data" what do you think, can you do it.

[robfl22]

Here, no need to go thru all of that. Just get the power ratings straight from the horses mouth... from the people who post the opening lines. Recent games weigh more than games 2-3-4-5 weeks ago.

LVSC NBA Rankings - Week 14
LVSC RankTeam (Record)RatingPrevious Rank
1 LA Lakers (38-9) 78.6 1
2 Boston (40-9) 78.5 2
3 Orlando (36-11) 78.2 4
4 Cleveland (37-9) 78.0 3
5 San Antonio (33-14) 73.0 8
6New Orleans (28-17) 72.6 5
7 Portland (30-17) 72.4 6
8 Houston (29-19)72.2 7
9 Denver (31-16)71.5 9
10 Utah (27-22) 69.6 10
11 Dallas (28-19) 69.4 13
12 Phoenix (26-20) 68.5 11
13 Atlanta (27-20) 67.9 12
14 Philadelphia (23-23) 67.7 14
15 Detroit (25-21) 67.5 16
16 Miami (26-21) 67.2 15
17 Minnesota (16-30) 64.9 18
17 Charlotte (19-29) 64.9 19
19 Toronto (19-30) 64.4 17
19 New York (21-26) 64.4 20
21 Chicago (21-27) 64.0 25
22 Milwaukee (24-27) 63.1 23
23 New Jersey (21-27) 63.0 24
24 Indiana (19-29) 62.8 21
25 Golden State (15-34) 62.7 22
26 Oklahoma City (11-37) 60.0 26
27 Washington (10-38) 58.8 27
28 Sacramento (11-39) 58.2 28
29 LA Clippers (10-38) 57.1 30
30 Memphis (12-35) 56.8 29