with the nets owning the jazz at home and the jazz being a little banged up and the nets being fresh with devon harris playing out of his mind i like my local nets to win this one at home and with them getting points i like it even more
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Spoon I think your right, the strongest plays seem to be in the first twelve minutes. You gotta look at the trends to understand this value. Spoon just added this to my arsenal
Sixers 1q
Detroit 1qComment -
well put bigmoney!Originally posted by BigMoneyMan
let's all remember it's up to ourselves to do the research and finalize our own picks.
the information provided by ck is amazing. in a short while i have learnt so much about this great oppurtunity.
dont' judge when things go wrong and praise him when things go right!
bigmoney you have been bang on with your picks and please continue to post them.
ck, well you, you, you are the best!!!!! thanks amigo!Comment -
Spoon,
that's easy..these teams give up too many points and score a bushel load of points. The Warriors have no defender in the middle and neither does Indiana. The Warriors are giving up 109.8 (110) points per game over thier last 5 games, and Indiana is giving up 111.2. Neither team wants to lose, so since the ball isn't that heavy, they are going to shoot it.
IrwinFletcher,
The Jazz won't be playing Boozer tonight, as he is listed as doubtful even though he practiced. I think it is more likely that he will get sme playing time when they geta few more games into this trip. But when he does play, the jazz are an automatic fade as his minutes will have to be worked back in.
shoebox,
I wouldn't say that it's a trap (the Celtics game) I would say that the linemaker is compensating for Pierce's injury. I still think the C's are better than the hawks even with Pierce out. The Hawks bench is a shame, and the Celtics go 9-10 deep. Never bet against the Celtics in a big game, and this qualifies as a big game with all of the goings on in last years' playoffs. As far as the Clips line falling to 3.5, it was supposed to with the consensus being in favor of the Clips 63% to 37%. The Chicago money will come in ow and the consensus should even up by gametime. But you should be joyous with getting the lne at 6. The Bulls have to beat us by 8 in order for our ticket to fail. That's a nice number for a team that is 4-1 ats against the home team.
But now I have to revise my opening statements of this thread to reflect that i just took Philly's team total to go over 97.5. They are playing a more uptempo style and i am going to get in on the floor level playing their team totals unil the linemaker catches up. Any Westhead disciple is about putting the bisquit in the basket.Comment -
Yeah, I thought about the defense aspect of the game, but 229 points? How would you lean on this if you were to place a wager? Maggette is their leading scorer so if the Pacers defense gives up points at least the leader in scoring can't take advantage.Originally posted by cocknockerComment -
CK you are the DON in this forum and I have been following you for awhile and you give great advice and your write-ups are subjective and informative. Your ARE DA MAN!! STYLES is one lucky woman!!!
with that said, i have made a post and it basically asking for info on all the HOME-UNDERDOGS in tonites CARD. PLEASE look and gimme some advice!! THANK YOU CK !! YI YI !!
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Spoon,
i wouldn't touch that total with a ten foot pole. Both teams are capable of scoring 115 with ease, and giving up the same number with ease. I can't give an honest answer on that one, homes. My advice, flip a coin, lol! Everything is 50/50 in this thing of ours anyway.
showtime2000,
Well said. BigMoney and I bounce thngs off of each other at night shortly after all of the action is over. And although he is amazed that I have my plays scheduled for days in advance, he prefers to watch line movement moreso than I do. But when we find something that we both agree upon, it's usually golden. Everybody has their own ways of doing things, so it is great to see when we have a mixed board, and lots of input from all kinds of angles. I appreciate the efforts of the board, and everybody's handicapping skills being put to work. What needs to be worked on is losing with class. Now way would I throw shade on a person if I use their pick and it doesn't work out. I know that they were trying their hardest to win greenbacks and that's enough for me.
Each and every day we have over 5,000 views (and increasing) on our thread, and we owe it to those interested parties to have a type of conduct that is worthy of all of the attention that we are getting. This is not the penalty box at Covers, where the CK Mafia had around 3,000 viewers everyday despite being hard to find. A place where the mods were just as trashy as the goons and naysayers. This is a freedom of speech type thing going on, in open public view. I think that interested people should find us acting on our best behavior. Can't get wagering information from a long list of crybabies.Comment -
I'm with you Spoon on that....I also favor the LAC/CHI and UTA/NJN unders as well!Originally posted by Spoon
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vickme78,
I have posted a response for you on your thread. Have a look, matey!Comment -
CK you gonna touch that Boston game?Comment -
Hey SBR Forumers,
So far I got LAC +5.5 and CLE -9.5...looking to play one more...any suggestions are greatly appreciated..leaning towards playing either SA at +2.5 or DAL at -1.5 for the last one
For over/under I got a small wager on GSW/IND, LAC/CHI and UTA/NJN all going under the total.
Get at me!
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shoebox,
In two words....Hell naw! I'm fully vested (that's an old Republican term) for the day. I have 5 plays and that is enough.
Philly-3.5
Philly team total to go over 97.5
Clips+6
Nets+4
Dallas-1.5
Those are my final plays. I am putting up $300.00 on each one for a nice tidy sum of $1500.00 put out. Although I could very easily put up a dime on each, in the blink of an eye, I am all about money management. The NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint. With over $29K to work with the average dork would put up 5 dimes today like an idiot and curse all night if a bad day happens . I am not him. I likes to relax....
But don't get me wrong, though, I will be playing the PC Play hard tomorrow, though, and I am thinking a couple a dimes would be nice right before X-Mas
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djpremiere36,
Sounds good homes..with one favorite and one dog, it would be nice to see another dog in there. San Antonio+2.5 sounds good. The more points the merrier. 2 dogs and a favorite. As far as those totals are concerned, are you parlaying them or taking them straight? If you are parlaying them, then you might want to tease them just to get some extra juice, you know what I mean?Comment -
Ok.. been running some numbers and it looks like one of the strongest plays on the board tonite for me is going to be MIL/PHI over 192.. With Jefferson and Redd both healthy, they've won their last two in dominating fashion scoring 98 and 121 in those matchups. PHI on the other hand has a bit of an identity crisis but like CK mentioned Dileo is a Westhead disciple and will get this team back on track to pushing the pace on the offensive end while both teams defensive efficiency over the last 5 games is well over 105.
Another total I'm interested in is SA/NO over 185.5. Originally I was leaning to the under for this game but after looking at some numbers, in particular 3pt % where both squads are shooting 43% from beyond the arc in their last 5, I have come up with a total of between 188 and 194 for this game. I realize that their last 4 have all gone under but with NO on the second half of b2b it's gonna take more energy for them to get out to the line to defend the three and stop Parker and Ginobli from having their way in the lane...
Still working on some others but I wanted to throw this at ya to get some feedback..Comment -
I've found myself betting on almost every game tonight which is rare... EXCEPT Bos-Atl where I just can't find value with Pierce being questionable.
And like many others have said, HATE betting against Boston.
So I have all of CKs picks as well except once again going against the Bucks who I feel are still underrated and on the up.
My worry in this game is that they're tired but I like that they're going against a Philly team that I see as just fundamentally wrong.
They can't shoot from the outside and the talent they have are the wrong kind of talent to get anywhere near the best out of their best player, Elton Brand.
Matchup wise they can do well against Bogut and Villanueva if he gets a lot of minutes but unlike the 76ers Bucks can beat you in other ways.
I'm hoping for a non awful night from Jefferson.
Another good one from Redd and hopefully Sessions can light it up once again. He has tons of talent.
Mbah Moute is also the perfect player to guard some of that Philly talent.
All in all I really like that I got them at +4.5
And I wish I had gotten Cleveland earlier. Do people think there is value in +10. I guess im leaning towards yes...Comment -
Aight CK...I'm going to jump on SA at +2.5. I don't trust DAL or TOR at all.Originally posted by cocknocker
I'm going to parlay the over/unders and will take a teaser.
Good looking out
A FYI, the handle is dj premier(the hip hop producer) 36(chambers of death)...just so it doesn't look like a bunch of letters lol
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yeah, i've been sleeping on the cavs money train up until now, but now that i finally faded them correctly (in ATL) I'm going to try to stow away on that cash tram. Even if it bites me tonight, i'm alright with that, but if it hits tonight, i'll see how long i can stay on before the conductor catches me without a ticket.Originally posted by maddogmadden86
CLE -9.5 (gettin' it below that 10)
After that, loving the line movement on NJ, public still haplessly playing jazz as road favs as if they ever covered when favs of 2 to 5 (can't remember the last time they did, except against clips and kings). If boozer plays all the better because he's been out of the lineup so long that minute mixing will make things harder on the jazz. Add to that all the numbers that CK kicked up about the jets vs. jazz and you've got yourself a good spot to fade the road favored jazz.
NJ +4 (buy it up)
Clips... holy line movement batman... the clips have less to travel to chicago than the bulls do and their game was a lot less taxing (NO OT and against a wussy bunch in OKC). Clips are hot right now, and i really like their team's make up... they dumped everyone with a losing culture (mobley, magette, tim thomas) and have solid youngsters and strong some inside presence (kaman's a puss, but he has help now) ... what more need i say, ya'll are gonna listen to CK before me anyways
LAC +6 (got it and bought it early)/ML
detroit is still getting it done in the first half when revenge matters... not gonna waste too much breath, but i don't see an overwhelming reason to play the first quarter instead of the first half as detroit has only once covered a 1Q and not a 1half, and the opposite has also happened once. Conversely, i've noticed a decent number of games that the wiz held tough on the road for a quarter before their opponent hit them up in the 2nd quarter, so i feel more comfortable giving the pistons 2 quarters to establish their vengence
DET 1st half
and then for the monster tonight...atlanta HATES boston, about as much as any team in the game, they wanted that game in boston so bad to prove that they can win there... but the biggest kicker in regards to that game for me is that they did that WITHOUT JOSH SMITH. Smith is the KG of this team, and depth or no, they almost beat the C's SU IN BOSTON WITHOUT SMITH, and the importance of smith was shown as they were outrebounded 43-32 and STILL only lost by one point. They are young and full of energy and well rested and every one of them will want 50+ minutes of PT. Paul pierce will play, this game means too much to boston for him to be a puss, but it means more to atlanta and they have vengence for inspiration. I wanted to fire up the engine that got my money making machine firing on all cylinders last year (and it hit against the cavs), but i can't play the team total, because the book is just as scared of offering that with a line of 186.5 because they KNOW the hawks will go over, as a matter of fact, i think i might play the over instead of the team total, still need to think about that one. On top of all this, we have the same line movement we saw against cleveland, as atlanta went from 5 point dogs to 4 point dogs even with the public loving that gang green. All i know is that the books learned not to offer the hawks ML at +330 last year in the playoffs as they can beat any team on any night at home.
ATL +2 1st half
ATL +4
ATL ML
i might be the only one on this board with the balls and screws loose to make this play, but even if i lose, the hawks have done me so right since last year that i can't even complain. Let's get that money mafia and friends!Comment -
CK, I know you already placed your Philly wager, but the line has gone down a full point with 55% of the public being on the 76ers. Does that concern you at all? The Warriors line has moved down because Troy Murphy is a game time decision and Ford will not be playing tonight. Also, Roy Hibbert will be starting instead of Rasho Nesterovic. All the other games look like the lines are moving in the right direction. For those of you interested in RLM, take a look at the Hawks.Comment -
oooh and there's an ML alert on that game.... when i started my write up, ATL ML was at +160 (a little low for a +4, but nothing that crazy).... when i finished, it had shot down to +145... THE BOOKS ARE SCARED OF ATL... that's why this game wasn't offered until today. i better shut up about it now or the hawks will tank this game just to spite me.Comment -
Hawks +3.5, Hawks +140
There is some reverse line movement going on in this game. The spread opened at -5 in favour of the Celtics. Yet, with 67% of the public on the Celtics, the line has dropped to -3.5.Originally posted by wangichu
Keep in mind, the Hawks are 9-1 SU at home. Celtics are the hottest team in the league right now and are enjoying a 15-game win streak. They're also 9-1 SU on the road. Both teams have a one-day rest after tonight's game.
Earlier this year, the Hawks lost a heartbreaking one-point game in Boston, 102-103. They'll be playing with revenge on their minds going into tonight's game. Also, during last years playoffs, the Hawks went on to win all three games that they hosted.
Atlanta is on their third game of an eight-game home stand.
One other piece of information to make note of is the Hawks first half spread. In the past three games played in Atlanta, the first half score has been 50-49 for the Celtics, 51-48 for the Hawks, and 56-56. In other words, they've trailed by one, led by three, and tied. I expect the Hawks to come out and play against the Celtics strong.
Last words, though the Celtics are playing mighty impressive right now, I think that the Hawks are their kryptonite. This will be a close one, and I'll take my chances with the Hawks ML and the spread.
Opinions?Comment -
The Kid,
Look back at my original spin on the Philly game, and you will see that i had the foresight to know that the line would drop a bit. I actually am happy with the Sixers at -3.5, as that is what i made my line to begin with. As expected, the linemaker has money on both sides of the fence now. i wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the line go back up now that 45% is now on the Bucks. That is all that he wanted. The consensus will be even by gametime, and there will be some late break action on the Sixers. Don't be surprised if the line goes back to 4 just prior to gametime.Comment -
Final plays
Detroit 1q -3
sixers 1q -1
clipps +6
Hawks +7
Mavs -1.5Comment -
Sure i have a couple of thoughts on the Atlanta/Boston game:
Thou shalt not wager against the Celtics in a big game. You are making a play against them and the referees. You have been warned. I will never do it again....Comment -
[quote=cocknocker;1311965]shoebox,
I am putting up $300.00 on each one for a nice tidy sum of $1500.00 put out. Although I could very easily put up a dime on each, in the blink of an eye, I am all about money management. The NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint. With over $29K to work with the average dork would put up 5 dimes today like an idiot and curse all night if a bad day happens . I am not him. I likes to relax....
ck. i have about $200 in my account now as i just cashed out $100. how much do you think i should be betting a day to keep my bankroll healthy. i find myself betting nearly half of it by tipoff usually, then get caught up in haltime lines in the late games.Comment -
Hah, didn't see that. My bad.Originally posted by cocknocker
Thanks for the insight, CK. 
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"Paul Pierce (knee injury suffered Monday) will be checked Tuesday, but he expects to play in Atlanta."
ANyone find out if he is defintely a no go tonight?Comment -
i gotta go w/ the reverse line movements and put 1/2 unit on ATL MLComment -
actually, that hinges a bit on pierce but still... gonna roll wit itComment -
I like celtic -4. Based on what I seen looks like Pierce is going to try and play.Comment -
No ML offered to me on this boston/atl game... might just have to buy a point on ATLComment -
That line is just way too low and the reverse line movement even further is scary. It would be best to lay off this game altogether unless you have the money to toss around.Comment -
Dalls -2.5
GS/IND U/227.5
NHL
San Jose -175
Rangers -115
Rangers/Kings U/5.5Comment -
Espn is saying that Pierce is probable tonight and will play.
Boston -4.Comment -
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Interesting games on the board tonight.... Only time will tell the fate of these games....... but the games have been really lopsided this week as far as public favs.
Final plays:
Nets +4 (bought 1.5)
Nets ML
Indiana -6 (bought 1)
Dal - 1.5 (bought 1)
Bulls -4 (bought 1/2)
Hornets -2 (bought 1 & 1/2... shoulda waited longer for all the SA backers)Comment -
Pierce is playing tonight. Look at the thread I posted regarding the injuries.Originally posted by sportsguy04Comment
