Leans for Wednesday 12/17/08

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Wednesday 12/17/08
    On the heels of a backdoor cover against the Celtics, the Jazz come into town to play the Nets, winners of an outright road dog win against the Raptors in their last game. The Jazz have historically had problems with the Nets, and this season i no different as the jazz got dismantled the last time these teams play by 17 points in November 105-88. This is a different Jazz team though now as Darren Williams is getting his wheels back underneath himself. Boozer is listed as doubtful for this game. So Millsap will continue to start. Personally I don't see how the jazz can keep giving away points in New Jersey. The Nets are a perfect 5-0 straight up and 5-0 ats in games between these two teams in Soprano land. I'll take the home dog based upon that measure, and add a point to make my line New Jersey+4.

    New Jersey +4 (buying a point to get on the key number)

    Dallas lost the equivalent of a big game at home against the Denver Nuggets a couple a days ago as I know oh too well. they'll look to get back on track Wednesday against the Raptors in Canada as a small favorite. With a 3-2 straight up and 1-4 ats track record playing in Canada, the Mavs had better have their game face on as the raptors have started to play better as of late. Save for a blowout victory by Dallas last season in their final encounter, Dallas has won the last 3 games in Canada, and the line for this game is a little less than the points that the mavs usually give to the Raptors on the raod. Their spreads usually average Dallas-5. I'll take my chances as an out of conference play road favorite is always a good play. The power rankings give Dallas a 2 point advantage, so I'll ride the wave of the power rankings and the team with better point guard play and the 8-2 straight up record.

    Dallas-1.5

    Philadelphia has had to deal with maurice Cheeks dismissal, and they have had three days off to think about it and evaluate where they are as a team. They are coming in hot off a blowout victory over the Wizzleskins 104-89 on Saturday. What better way to stay hot than to face the Bucks who at tipoff will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with blowout wins in both of their last two games. Philly has their number to the tune of 6-2 ats in their last 8 matchups, so I definitely like them to cover the short number with the better inside game, and the better point guard. I look for a little rust out of Philly in the 1st half, and I acually think that Milwaukee will win the 1st half, with the Sixers pushing ahead in the 2nd half to get the cover. it won't be easy as both teams are fighting for respectablility, but the Sixers are the deeper team, and I think that that depth will shine through late in the game. The line will drop somewhat, and then rise prior to gametime. I like them to win by two baskets homies.

    Philadelphia-3.5 (buying a point to get under the key number)
    Philadelphia team total to go over 97.5 (late addition)

    Oh my here come the Clippers...Chicago played an overtime game last night against the Bobcats in a game perfectly handicapped by the Missus (Charlotte moneyline-Styles play). Now they must fly all the way from North Carolina (eastern time zone)back to Chicago and play a game in Central Standard time zone against the suddenly hot Clips, who only had a short flight from Oklahoma City to Chicago within the same time zone. Edge for the Clips there. Throw in the fact that the Clips are 4-1 ats overall against the Bulls in their last 5 encounters and you have yourself a little treat trend-wise.I will take the Clips to get the job done wit a little help from myself to make the spread Clips+6, which is a good nu,mber considering the fact that I think that they have the edge at point guard. Rose is good, but he's no Baron Davis, and he cetainly isn't strong enough to handle his penetration. The Clips are the hottest covering team in basketball going 5-2 ats in their last 7 games. i expect this type of play to continue Wednesday night.

    Clippers+6 (1 point buy to get back on the key number)

    Other notables:

    Indiana-7.5 Golde State is pure hogwash. They may lose 50 games this season and they are well on their way. I am not playing this game but it looks strong on a sheet of paper. It just didn't make my final cut because of the porous defense that both clubs play.

    Come on board, let's get some feedback and some varied play action!
  • cnleaf
    Restricted User
    • 11-08-08
    • 346

    #2
    DET 1st Quarter.
    hows that, CK?
    Comment
    • cocknocker
      Restricted User
      • 11-06-08
      • 8001

      #3
      shoebox,

      don't take it so hard. The Lakers underperformed. So what. Sometimesyour success takes a shot at you, right. I myself went 4-2 yesterday and lost my board plays but I know you guys will be back today with some goodness. I chose those plays myself from the board and i ain't sweatin' it. So you don't sweat it, gabeesh? Trust me ther have been days where i didn't have good days also. I know you guys are all out there pecking away and looking for angles and i expect that somebody will come up with something brilliant that I didn't see. Now boys and girls get to work!
      Comment
      • Wilforth
        Restricted User
        • 05-10-08
        • 16309

        #4
        Originally posted by cnleaf
        DET 1st Quarter.
        hows that, CK?
        That's almost a lock. They'll win the 1Q by about 10 points and eventually lose the game. So the 1Q is the only play for the Detroit game.
        Comment
        • cocknocker
          Restricted User
          • 11-06-08
          • 8001

          #5
          cnleaf,

          The only way that I will take a first quarter bet is if it is being offered at +100. Detroit looks on paper to be a sound bet, but they implode in second halves and don't keep the pedal to the metal as in years' past. I don't know wht is wrong with their defensive rotations, but they have got to get it together. Theyblew a seemingly insurmountable lead the other day against the Bobcats. And those who know me know that I am a Detroit die-hard. i absolutely love that team. They have cashed so many tickets for me over the years that I can't begin to thank their boss Joe Dumars enough. But tey don't have the killer instinct anymore, and they have too many wasted trips. They buiolt their identity by running Rip off of multiple screens and timely three pointers. I haven't seen that out of them in a while, that's why they didn't make the grade with me for my official plays today. I don't put much value on inconsistency.
          Comment
          • isiah121
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-04-08
            • 313

            #6
            CK, what do you think of Clippers/Bulls UNDER 198.5? Both teams played tonight, and the Bulls went to OT. I think the UNDER is good, but can I get you guys' opinion. Thanks.
            Comment
            • Dubbs
              SBR Rookie
              • 09-28-06
              • 4

              #7
              First time caller, long time listener...Cavs -9 1/2...Because they've done it to everyone else!

              Love the Mavs -1 by the way!
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #8
                Power ranking results for tomorrows games go as follows

                Dalls-2
                Chicago-2
                Utah-2
                Philly-5
                Detroit-11
                Cleveland-20 (WOW)
                New Orleans/San Antonio (pk)
                Indiana-8
                Boston-9
                Comment
                • nick2060
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-28-08
                  • 1051

                  #9
                  Damn ck tommorrow looks shitty in my opinion, and thursday being tnt thursday with 2 games looks even worse, only game i like at first glance is the spurs moneyline but ill give boston/atlanta a look when the lines made available. Just so i dont fill this thread with useless picks with no info ill try n do a lil bit of that information stuff:
                  1.Trends are pretty heavy in new orleans favour, and while i like going with trends a lot ima lay off that here, but just cause im here to give info and not make a pick for people here goes:
                  Home team is 8-1 ATS the last 9 meetings
                  Favourite is 6-1 ATS the last 7 meetings
                  Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings but....
                  Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings IN NEW ORLEANS
                  2. Very comparable home/away record. New orleans is 7-3 at home, Spurs are 7-3 on the road.
                  3. ATS home/away records: New orleans is 4-5-1 ATS at home, Spurs are 6-4 ATS on the road
                  4. New orleans is 1-3-1 ATS on 0 days rest. Spurs are 2-1 on 2 days rest.
                  I think if your gonna take the spurs to cover a 2.5 spread you might as well take the + money by taking the moneyline. I know the basket MIGHT come back to bite you in the ass but thats why its called gambling. Good luck tommorrow everybody. I also think Indiana sucks just as much as golden state and theres some value on the moneyline there, just cause its so high but i havent really looked into it
                  Comment
                  • cnleaf
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-08-08
                    • 346

                    #10
                    Is T.J Ford playing?
                    also Dalembert? anyone knows?
                    Comment
                    • cocknocker
                      Restricted User
                      • 11-06-08
                      • 8001

                      #11
                      Isiah121

                      The over is 4-1 in games between those two teams with average totals lines of 190, and actual game scores of 200. But with the action from the previous day as you indicated, thereis a chance that these teams would go under, but unlikely. The linemaker has obviously made an adjustment to the totals lineby raising it a full 8.5 over what it is usually. The thinkingis if he goes up, then you go down. Now they HAVE to score 200 points to go over the total, and you have my blessing to bang the under, as it is taking a different course than the linemaker has chosen to take. Good luck on your play!
                      Comment
                      • danrman
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-30-08
                        • 2696

                        #12
                        hey cockknocker most games end at least 4 pts away from the line (which is of course the basic tease) so buying all those points over the long term is costing you money unless your buying a ton of points.. thanks for your input and i like the clippers vs. the bulls but i differ as i like toronto vs. dallas.. i live in dallas and they are a hot and cold team and after being hot as hell they are now on a cold streak+all the money will be on dallas+toronto will get all the calls up there.. peace
                        Comment
                        • CTS5
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-02-08
                          • 223

                          #13
                          CK,

                          I think both the nets and 76ers games are going to be very close and down the wire. Initially, 76ers look like a lock against the bucks but people keep forgetting that the bucks have jefferson back, and are starting to look pretty legit. I believe the line maker is trying to set a trap with that by setting the line relatively low so the public jumps on it. Philly will probably win that game but by no more than 3 points. If I were to take anything here, I would wait till tip off time and take the bucks at probably around +5.5 or 6. Also, I like the nets at +4, but I wouldnt trust their inconsistency against a coming to be solid jazz team. I wouldnt touch that one if I were you. Hope you dont think im against your picks, just giving my perspective, and hopefully you give me yours and we can figure more things out with clearer insight.

                          By doing some light research, I came up with the spurs easily covering against the hornets. They just played a game tonight at memphis, and have to travel back to new orleans to play a healthier and revived spurs team. You know how the spurs take good teams serious and like to make points by beating them to prove they're still the san antonio spurs. I'm going to lock the spurs in at +2.5 maybe +3 because the public might jump on it and shift the line. I also kind of like the OVER 186 in that game, but that pick is pending. I also agree with your clippers pick. Baron will handle the rookie, and they will roll in chicago, especially with chicago coming of an overtime game like that. I want to also lock that game as early as possible because I believe the public might get on that also. My place doesnt allow me to buy points, but I still think theyll cover at +5 if not straight win. Anyways, lets get back to work.
                          Comment
                          • cnleaf
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-08-08
                            • 346

                            #14
                            NOR/ SA under 186.5 sounds a good play.
                            In recent meetings in New Orleans, these two teams game total has never gone above 186 (5-0 under)
                            Also Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
                            Comment
                            • CTS5
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-02-08
                              • 223

                              #15
                              Just saw the post about the UNDER 198.5 for the clippers/bulls game. Looks good to me. Bulls are tired. Clippers also tired but not as much as the bulls. Both coming off games from last night.
                              Comment
                              • CTS5
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 12-02-08
                                • 223

                                #16
                                san antonio/hornets total started at 188, and with over 98% on the over, went down to 186. Looks kind of shady. Linemakers is trying to pull something here.
                                Comment
                                • Dubbs
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 09-28-06
                                  • 4

                                  #17
                                  nick2060 - Good point on the Spurs moneyline! Spurs don't lose by 2, they either win, or lose by 15 and I know this team like the back of my hand. In their 8 losses this year, there has only been 1 single digit loss and that was @ Mil on Nov 12th by 4. As far as trends...the Spurs are a completely different team since Manu and Tony came back. The "role players"...Roger Mason, George Hill, and Finley got a lot of minutes in their absence and they look good, not to mention confident!
                                  Comment
                                  • shoebox
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-26-08
                                    • 5710

                                    #18
                                    CK im good I broke even nothing wrong with that homie
                                    Comment
                                    • cocknocker
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-06-08
                                      • 8001

                                      #19
                                      cnleaf,

                                      I don't see where TJ Ford is listed out with his groin injury. it matters not as he is not a good point guard. They may be better off without his services. They will get back on track this week and next week though as they will hve a soft schedule. The Pacers have ad the number 1 ranked schedule in terms of difficulty, but the teams that they play over the next week and a half all have sub .500 records I believe.

                                      Dalembert is not listed as out anywhere, but I think that his production is way down this year. Their new oach Dileo is a Paul Westhead disciple, so look for Philly to play more up-tempo than before, with similar results to the 104 they threw up against the Wizzleskins. If I see that their team total is anything less than 100, i will rock their team total. With a spread of 4.5, and a total of 193, I estimate that their team total will be 99.5, which i will gladly take in addition to their spread which I have already made 3.5
                                      Comment
                                      • cnleaf
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-08-08
                                        • 346

                                        #20
                                        I just saw that from covers and sportsinsights injury list. Im not quite sure about that.
                                        Comment
                                        • shoebox
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-26-08
                                          • 5710

                                          #21
                                          CK 90% of the money is on Dallas. This sounds fishy to me? Line might be at 2.5 when I wake up....
                                          CK you like that much of the publics dough on Dallas?
                                          Comment
                                          • Spoon
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 11-21-08
                                            • 592

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by cnleaf
                                            I just saw that from covers and sportsinsights injury list. Im not quite sure about that.
                                            Ford is day-to-day and the decision will be made sometime today prior to the game. If he can't go, Jarret Jack will take he spot.
                                            Comment
                                            • cocknocker
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-06-08
                                              • 8001

                                              #23
                                              danrman,

                                              It only costs you money when you lose. I don't like key numbers. But hey, it's my style, and that's the way that I prefer to play my games. I was taught by some of the best, so I can't change my style to suit the feelings of others. I don't like being on key numbers. And since I don't tease games or play parlays too much, I have to stick with the system that has worked for me for years. thank you for your concern, but always remember that each and every man has the luxury of having his own options and making his owndecisions with his holdings. Ii like insurance in the name of getting every advantage that I can. trust me, when baseball season comes back around, you will hardly ever get a bet at -110. Baseall betting has me used to paying more vig wit no problems. Those 20 or so wins I get a year by buying points adds up more on the side of winning percentage which is the name of the game inthis thing of ours. If a person doesn't have dee pockets, then i suggest that they take their chances at -110.I however refuse to allow the linemaker to make my spread for me. I have the clout to make my own spreads, so i do.

                                              Alright shoebox,

                                              God for you, That 2nd half wager is the kind of flare that is admirable. I remember last week i was down three units and promptlyput the same number up on one quarter of basketball with the lakers, so i know where you're coming from. Watcha got good for the board for tomorrow?

                                              cnleaf,

                                              It looks like the Spurs/Hornets is destined to go under. The line will look like peanuts tomorrow moning though. We may see a totals line of 183 by gametime. Grab your nuts and and put them up onto the table. It's gonna be a squeaker.

                                              I am surprised tht only one fellow is on the Cavs for tomorrow.... Did you see that power ranking for them?
                                              Comment
                                              • CTS5
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-02-08
                                                • 223

                                                #24
                                                Yea, cavs look good tomorrow, I have them winning by 14 in my model. So far, Cavs -10, strongest play spurs +2.5, Clippers +5, and possibly the UNDER in that clippers game.
                                                Comment
                                                • Spoon
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 11-21-08
                                                  • 592

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                  danrman,

                                                  SNIP...

                                                  I am surprised tht only one fellow is on the Cavs for tomorrow.... Did you see that power ranking for them?
                                                  I'm on the Cavs -9... It's already up to -10.5 at some books.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    cnleaf,

                                                    I expect that the public will be all over Dallas because once they see the straight up numbers, they will pounce on the Mavs and drive the line up. usually I make my plays without anticipation of it being a public play or not so that I can get a "virgin" line. Once the line goes up to 3 or so, the Toronto backers will jump in line. i wouldn't take the mavs for anything more than 2, because i think that this game will be a hotly contested one. toronto doesn't want to lose two in a row at home, and Dallas wants to atone for their poor showing aganst the Nuggets in their last home game. i think that he mavs will perform better in this game, with Dirk hitting a game winning shot in the last seconds..

                                                    But to answer your question, i don't mind Dallas being a public play. The public is right sometimes too. They have been making a killing off of Cleveland and Boston with no problems.

                                                    Spoon,

                                                    I think that Jarrett Jack is a better point guard than TJ anyway.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • cocknocker
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                      • 8001

                                                      #27
                                                      CTS5, and Spoon want the money. Any other takers? It's starting to look like Cleveland may be the Play of the Day for the board. You already kno the public is gonna drive that line up though. This might be one of those 94 to 6% jobs, but I don't see any way that Minnesota keeps that one close, even with Cleveland's injuries.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • shoebox
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 11-26-08
                                                        • 5710

                                                        #28
                                                        CK need to do a little research. Lookin at the board so far I think Boston backers are bout to get burned. Hawks baby give me the hawks and if the line is stiff im all over them. Thats the only game so far thats caught my eye. With the other super man getting limited minutes due to his knee this should be a good play.
                                                        .
                                                        Thoughts

                                                        Cavs look great too!!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • shoebox
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-26-08
                                                          • 5710

                                                          #29
                                                          Speaking of king james ill be watching that game center court on Friday followed by invesco on Sunday!!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cocknocker
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-06-08
                                                            • 8001

                                                            #30
                                                            shoebox,

                                                            You tell me! I have learned that Boston is a good play in any big game due to the slant that the officals always seem to give them wether they are on the road or at home. No way am i betting against the Celtics in a big game again! I have had my fill of that...You're on your own on that one, homes..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • shoebox
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 11-26-08
                                                              • 5710

                                                              #31
                                                              They are the best team in the league gonna wait to see the line and where the money is going before I make my play. Hopefully the line gets the movement I want and I might pull the trigger. KG brings it every night no matter what so ill have to wait and see
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Spoon
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 11-21-08
                                                                • 592

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                                CTS5, and Spoon want the money. Any other takers? It's starting to look like Cleveland may be the Play of the Day for the board. You already kno the public is gonna drive that line up though. This might be one of those 94 to 6% jobs, but I don't see any way that Minnesota keeps that one close, even with Cleveland's injuries.
                                                                I concur, sir. The line in this game has been adjusted appropriately due to the 3 injurys on the Cavs.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • cocknocker
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 11-06-08
                                                                  • 8001

                                                                  #33
                                                                  shoebox

                                                                  In the words of Eddie in the Five Heartbeats, "You're Goddamn right"
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Spoon
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-21-08
                                                                    • 592

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I have two rules:

                                                                    #1 Bet with the Magic or don't bet them at all. They are my #1 money machine.
                                                                    #2 Bet with the Celtics or don't bet them at all. They are a great ball club and you never know when they feel like lighting up the other team.

                                                                    So far, these two simple rules have made me ridiculous money this season.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • innovator
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 11-28-08
                                                                      • 238

                                                                      #35
                                                                      i bet with the magic and they lost me a moneyline friday.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...