Leans for Wednesday 12/17/08

[wangichu]

i have to hit the cavs -9.5 to take out the frusteration of that loss in ATL on the lowly t-wolves. After that, i'm always a fan of fading the jazz as road favs, and you KNOW i'm on ATL to put the hurt on the C's. They hate boston and last year's playoffs are proof that they can hang. They just match up very well with boston, and while a little less deep, their youth can bridge that gap. While i know boston will want a win in atlanta, the hawks have more going for them with a dose of revenge. Lastly so far, detroit has been setting up alright in revenge games and at home, but as CK mentioned, they just haven't been closing them out. As thus, i'm liking them to come out strong and jump on the wiz early, and then i'll get the hell out of that one before the pistons have a chance to mess things up. My early board looks as thus...

CLE -9.5 (already played cuz this games no secret)
NJ +4
ATL 1st half
ATL +6 (guess) and ML
DET -5.5 1st half
LAC +6 (tailing CK)

[cocknocker]

innovator,

It happens every now and then. I lost that one too, but you can't say that they didn't fight for our money that night with the loss of Superman in the third quarter. They only lost by one.. The Magica are a cash cow to bet on!

[Spoon]

i bet with the magic and they lost me a moneyline friday.

I'm talking point spread here - they covered ATS on Friday. Nevertheless, without DH I would not have taken them ML.

EDIT: Correction, that might have been the game DH got injured so the ML was be an ok wager at that point.

[innovator]

that's what urked me i guess..they lost by 1 point.

[cocknocker]

I know innovator, we have to take the bitter with the sweet! If Superman comes back though lay off of them in his first game back, or fade them in that particular game. They have a good flow without him in the lineup right now. He will have to have his minutes mixed back in. Cook will nt be happy to see himcoming back. Ee is already disgruntled with his lack of playing time...I thought he would be traded by now.

[tdotcotez]

CK, I think that your systems you use from the NBA are not so much applicable in college ball and that a purely mathematical approach should be taken. College bball has been my strong point for the past 3 or 4 years and I have been more confident in teams that I've never seen play before sometimes than on an NBA team.

Compare points scored and points against for both teams, and look at them for the last 5, then apply your nba systems and you should have something sound. You may want to play with smaller amts until you regain your confidence in it, but I see college hoops as the best way to find mismatched lines yet the easiest to mathematically predict because of the sheer amount of data you have to find an average with.

And you always gotta bet on the animals!

[cocknocker]

Wang,

I may join you in taht Detroit 1st half tilt. They owe the Wizzles a black eye for that blowout loss. Good call. Iknow that I can always count on ya!

[tdotcotez]

We also need to stop ignoring line movement when the money is heavily lopsided and the line continues to drop in the lopsided favor.... That NO game was scary but since the line moved 2-2.5 points against the publics direction I wasnt too scared about my -5 play that I got in the night before, but conversely, yesterday the same thing was with miami except the line was moving in favor of the public, it should have been a dead giveaway something was wrong. Yes, sometimes, I do believe that the public can be so right about a game (like NO tonight) but that the line movement should reflect that unless the books know something we do not.

[cocknocker]

Well tdotcotez,

Then you b my saviour. I can't pick em until they get into conference. I always play a home team that has lost 3 straight conference games. I absolutely love that situation! I'm lights out in conference calls in college basketball, especially Pac10 and ACC and SEC. Always take Clemson at home coming off a conference loss on the road. They atone for their losses pretty well...

[tdotcotez]

smoke weed errrrrday

[Spoon]

Wang,

I may join you in taht Detroit 1st half tilt. They owe the Wizzles a black eye for that blowout loss. Good call. Iknow that I can always count on ya!

I would try the Pistons 1Q, CK. I'm on a parlay with the Pistons 1Q and Sixers 1Q.

Forget about the Pistons game, you already know my thoughts on that - not happening.

[hunt3rtheone]

hello guys, where is gswarriors week ? i think indiana pacers is unable to beat the handicapp of 7,5 ...they surely improve in the last game with wizards and that i think is the reason for this handicapp but still gswarriors is angry now is pretty much week .. they won one point some days ago against lakers and the last game with wizzards but nothing special .. in my oppinion the handicapp is to high i see a close match because gswarriors has no defence but thys guys love scorring !

[shoebox]

Spoon, you took the words right outta my mouth. Detroit basketball 1q and thats it. I can forsee them jumping out early and then layin an egg. Im gonna add pistons 1q

[tdotcotez]

I'll give you a few solids tomorrow and show you the numbers, you dont have to play em but def watch. I believe pronk uses a similar method for capping cbb because I have come up with a lot of the same numbers/plays as him. He does have a weak heart for underdogs though.

[shoebox]

hello guys, where is gswarriors week ? i think indiana pacers is unable to beat the handicapp of 7,5 ...they surely improve in the last game with wizards and that i think is the reason for this handicapp but still gswarriors is angry now is pretty much week .. they won one point some days ago against lakers and the last game with wizzards but nothing special .. in my oppinion the handicapp is to high i see a close match because gswarriors has no defence but thys guys love scorring !

Im done with GS they are way wishy washy

[djpremier36]

Hey guys, let me know what you think...

Nets +3 and Clips +5 are two bets that I like as well.

UTA played their hearts out in BOS and won't run away with this one at all. Probably going to be a tight affair all night. LAC are different team after the trade for Z-Bo and the subtraction of the recently retired, Cuttino Mobley. I look for Eric to hold up to the other Gordon fairly well.

I'm favoring the WAS +9.5 pick. I don't see DET blowing out anybody out right now by 10 points. WAS is better then their record shows and the addition of Blatche to the starters will help diffuse Sheed/McDyess. I look for Tough Juice and Tawn to get 30 a piece and possibly win this thing straight up like they did in DC earlier on this year.

I'm also on CK's pick of IND -7.5. As stated earlier GSW are in trouble and are a team looking for an identity. No Maggete and a banged up S. Jackson to defend the likes of Danny Granger aka Granny Danger and Daniels adds up to a potential blowout loss. IND is dynamite at home relative to their road record. If they can beat BOS and LAL at home, I like their chance of beating GSW by double digits. The over/under of 229 looks a little high to me as well.

[tdotcotez]

I'll prolly ride boston and new orleans till the wheels fall off but I like dallas too, no spread yet on the boston game.

[cocknocker]

tdotcotez,

sometimes waiting on a line to formulate will have you taking more points than you need or want to though. Homework s always the best solution, and then you look at the public records. If the line movement doesn't match up with your findings, then a kick out becomes necessary. I didn't have the hornets winning by 8, but it happened anyway. truth be told, if the line was 8 from the outset, then i wouldn't have taken the game. My projected lines are what i base the actual lines against. I get my projections first however, then i look at the line. I may have been off on that Miami game, and the line movemnt may have worked against my findings, but I had them pegged to get the job done with my rescoring model. They shot the ball horribly though, and that wasn't because of the Bucks defense at all. I watched the game, so i do know that info. The Heat will need to regroup, but they will have a few problems for the next couple of games. Marion is on the trading block with a proposed trade to Cleveland for Szczerbiak and Varejao. Also of note, the Magic are intersted in obtaining Grant Hill again. For who, i don't know. My guess is that Jameer Nelson is on his way out of town.

[tdotcotez]

The spread on that indy game is a lil ridiculous especially if ford is out, but if ford plays I will def run with it.

[Spoon]

Hey guys, let me know what you think... SNIP

I'm on the Clippers with you, but on the otherside of the Nets - taking Jazz -2.

[cocknocker]

I see Boston as favored by 6 according to my rescoring model. Should be interesting what number the line maker comes up with.

[cocknocker]

Spoon,

You buying a point or do you have a great book? I have it at 3 on the Greek.

[tdotcotez]

Well capping the game by numbers I predict boston winning by 9-10, the last time they played in atl the spread was 8.5.

[tdotcotez]

hawks are 9-1 at home though and i think that should help for getting a better line... if its too low ill lay off of it

[shoebox]

Line will be adjusted with Paul Pierce questionable

[cocknocker]

tdotcotez,

That's about where the power ranking has the Celtics winning by. You're good on that call going by those numbers. Atlanta's bench is a downright shame. Any lead that they get is diminished the moment they enter the game. Just horrible...

[danrman]

hey fellas how bout the pierce injury effecting the celts-hawks game.. is he 100%???

[Spoon]

Spoon,

You buying a point or do you have a great book? I have it at 3 on the Greek.

I'm playing the game for a nice chunk of money so I bought the point to make it look more appealing, lol.

BetJam has it @ -3 just like the Greek.

[cocknocker]

Nope, he's not 100%, but I still can't lay against the Gang Green! Too many borderline calls go their way. Uh-uh buddies..

[shoebox]

One thing that the hawks have is no fear factor. When most teams play the C's they wet the bed before even stepping on the court. I like to see that im not the only lunatic considering this play hmmm....

[cocknocker]

I am starting to really love the Philly team total after reading the local newspaper. I think it's all systems go! It will be around 99.5. If it is, I'm in on it. Any Paul Westhead disciple is into creating more possessions per game. That translates well into the Philly personnel. I think that this guy may have the secret ingredient to returning Philly to the type of production necessary to make them viable again in the eastern conference. They already have two erasers in Dalembert and Ratliff. The break is always there with Andre Miller on the floor. He just needs to have the wraps taken off of him.

[danrman]

so w/ a name like cockknocker are you female.. no offense either way.. just curious

[CTS5]

Nobody has mentioned the spurs +2.5? I have that as the strongest play in my opinion. Am i missing something with that pick?

[The_Kid]

Power ranking results for tomorrows games go as follows

Dalls-2
Chicago-2
Utah-2
Philly-5
Detroit-11
Cleveland-20 (WOW)
New Orleans/San Antonio (pk)
Indiana-8
Boston-9

CK, how do you determine these power rankings?

[The_Kid]

Nobody has mentioned the spurs +2.5? I have that as the strongest play in my opinion. Am i missing something with that pick?

I'm eyeing that pick too. Spurs will get up for this game and are well rested. Hornets on a back to back. This will be a good rematch similar to the playoffs last year. I would probably throw a little on the Spurs ML as well as taking Spurs +2.5 and the UNDER 186.