and btw why fade TOR for tomorrow? S4 says "Play to lose ATS"
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You already answered your own question. Now you just have to understand it.Originally posted by miczz14Comment -
The only D-bet for S4 as far as I know was last week. The one where OKC failed to cover. Usually before when an S4 series reaches C bet, it's a sure win but after what happened last week, I'm not really doubting it but there's hesitation. But so far Stifler hasn't led us to the wrong way so good luck to us!Originally posted by miczz14damn this is hard.. ORL is such a shitty team and they're going up against TOR+3.5
i got a feeling this will go to D bet
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NOPE! I read it three times and don't know what the hell it says.Originally posted by miczz14Comment -
records:Originally posted by Stifler
S1: W 40 | L 2 (+ 3,10 units)
S2: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
S3: W 12 | L 0 (+12,00 units)
S4: W 34 | L 1 (+17,55 units)
additional: -1,10 units Den fade
pending:
- S2 Cle fade, C Bet on 25.01.2013
- S2 Orl, C Bet on 28.01.2013
- S4 Tor fade, C Bet on 24.01.2013
- S4 Dal fade, B Bet on 25.01.2013
- S1 Utah, B Bet on 25.01.2013
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all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
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afaik = as far as i knowOriginally posted by Wallco99
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S2 orlando C bet will be played on 28.01.2013 as they had their winning streak on the road.Comment -
Stif, pmed you about something.Originally posted by Stifler
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Stop looking at this as an NBA basketball handicapping thread. It's a mathematical system that uses the NBA to create situations that are advantageous. Has nothing to do with the actual game of basketball or the NBA.damn this is hard.. ORL is such a shitty team and they're going up against TOR+3.5Comment -
im new on here and dont understand the system but looking at your post above it makes it look like you are 2-5 in your last 7 plays....can someone help me understand it betterComment -
jakeloftin2186 - before you get trashed, Read post #1586
The QUICK explanation is that this is a 4 game chase. The goal is to win ONE of 4 games on certain teams in certain situations. So you can go LLLW and win one unit which is the goal.Comment -
Where did you get that? I clearly stated NADAOriginally posted by samrock67
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How do you go 1-3 and win one unitComment -
I'll use $10 as a unit sizeOriginally posted by jakeloftin2186
Bet 1(loss): $11 to win $10
Bet 2(loss): $23.10 to win $21($21-11 = $10)
Bet 3(loss): $48.51 to win $44.10($44.10-23.10-11= $10)
Bet 4(win): $101.8 to win $92.61($92.61-48.51-23.10 = $10)Comment -
@jakeloftin2186, and whoever else...
to break it down further:Originally posted by samrock67
US=your unit size.
Whether it be 50 cents, or $1526.02, US stays the same. All bets are figured at -110 odds.
Bet 1) RISK 1.1 x 1 US to win 1 US. If win, you're done (after ANY bet). If a loss...go to
Bet 2) RISK 2.31 x 1 US to win 1 US FOR THE CHASE!!! The 2.31 recoups the wager + juice of Bet 1 and gets you the 1 US. Win and you're done. If a loss...
Bet 3) RISK 4.85 x 1 US to win (same ^^^^^^^^^^^). Win and you're done. If a loss....
Bet 4) RISK 10.18 x 1 US to win (same ^^^^^^^^^^). Win and you're done. If a loss...
Suck it up, buttercup...a system loss.
Check Stif's post #3015, under records. See the S1 40-2? That "2" is a 4 game chase that didn't win. The "40" just means a chase was won, not a W/L within the chase. If every chase went to the fourth bet (and won), the record would still be 40-0, NOT 40-120.Comment -
love your avatar and what a great couple games by the B's and Blueshirts to open the season, I got a feeling they will see each other in the ECF for a chance at the cup this post season.Originally posted by samrock67Comment -
Yea, these 1st 2 games between the 2 have been really fun to watch. In this shortened season my concern is that Tortorella is gonna switch the lines around too much and won't give Nash the time to develop chemistry with Richards and Gaborik. I would love nothing more than a ECF against the B's. That would make for some damn good hockey.Originally posted by TB12Comment -
You have one of the best goalies on the planet for sure, and Nash is a beast but my biggest concern for your team is if Gaborik can stay healthy he is a notoriously injury prone guy. Still I think my B's will see you in the ECF.Comment -
Ok so once you win the chase is is over?? For example L L W after going 1-2 the chase is overComment -
Correct. the chase is over as soon as you win- the goal is to win 1 unit per chaseOriginally posted by jakeloftin2186Comment -
jakeloftin2186 - and just to add one point here - I believe we all know that a normal Martingale is stupid. But what this is is certain teams, whether it's their location, or ownership or whatever are streakier then other teams.
For instance Utah - Chase-wise is 54-0 in a 4 team chase in the last 10 years. Some teams are very very good BUT depend on that last game to cover which is why they are not included in the list of teams Stifler has targeted.
As I said - this isn't about the NBA, it's all mathematical. (which is why we continue to play nightmare teams like Miami and the Lakers).
And we win 1 unit. Does not sound like much but I think we are averaging about starting 2 chases a day on average.Ok so once you win the chase is is over?? For example L L W after going 1-2 the chase is overComment -
Not to mention that the system on average profits 147 units per season and currently sits at around +53 units...Originally posted by Grinder12000Comment -
I have 1 line for each system and then i also have one extra line for just C and D bets for all 4 systems(i had to adjust S1 at the end of December, so this is what it looks like now)Originally posted by abzflabz
S1== 1-1-1-1-1(2.5 units=0.50% br)
S2== 1-1-1-1-1(2.5 units=0.50% br)
S3== 2-2-2-2-2(5 units=1% br)
S4== 2-2-2-2-2(5 units=1% br)
S1-S4(C/D bets)== 1-1-1-1-1(2.5 units=0.50% br)
I started the system from the beginning but i stopped playing it for about 3 weeks and then came back to it with the labby method. So i don't have an accurate unit count at the moment. I also move numbers around if the line get a bit heavy.
And I also do what jm disciple does....if there are 3 numbers on a line and i have two games on that system, i add an extra number on the line add up the total for that line and divide it by 4 and then play those two games for the same price.
2-2-2 would become 1.5-1.5-1.5-1.5Comment -
@jake....edited #3024...should help.Comment -
24.01.2013
S4
(C Bet) Tor fade: Lakers -4,5 1,10u| Miami -10,5 2,31u| Orlando -4 4,85u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
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hey stif , since you are not located in US , why don't you use Marathonbet ? Orlando is -3.5 @ 2.02 (+102)Comment -
Damn, something just scares me about this....Orlando been playing like crap, and Toronto been playing hot. On a further note, 25% of the public is on Toronto, yet 75% of the money is on Toronto.Originally posted by Stifler24.01.2013
S4
(C Bet) Tor fade: Lakers -4,5 1,10u| Miami -10,5 2,31u| Orlando -4 4,85u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u
________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________
all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
I know it's a system and where public/money is doesn't mean anything, still stressed out about it though.Comment -
Toronto is playing back to back games and 2 out of three are OT BUT - they ARE good in back to back games going 8-5 as away dogs of <4Damn, something just scares me about this.
But Toronto started to get tired in the 2nd half last night. I think this sets up good for us.Comment -
If this is true, shouldnt we wait for some more money to come in on toronto so the line can drop on our play?Originally posted by UK_gixxerComment -
I love being comfortedOriginally posted by Grinder12000
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Grinder / anyone:
Where can I import historical data for NBA. I'm interested in importing lines, outcomes, public side %, and money %...trying to see if it profitable to follow the money against the public (for instance when 30% public on a side, but over 50% of the money is on it)Comment -
Not correct. The average profits number you have is from Covers backtests, if you backtest this season on Covers we are about +32 units, not 53. If your going to compare you need to use the same sources of information - Stifler has made a couple 2 unit A bets and dodged a loss that occurred officially on Covers.Originally posted by samrock67Comment -
Remember UK_gixxer this is a system! Take off the handi-cap (get it? hahah....I'll show myself out)
As for importing NBA data I don't remember the post # but DegenGambler posted an Excel file in this thread that allows you to do exactly that. May require you to go back some pages however.Comment -
My apologies, I was just using the numbers that Stifler has in his postsOriginally posted by thelimit0310Comment -
pg38, post 1314Originally posted by thelimit0310Comment -
yea I remember the file, but I wasn't sure if it posted things like betting trendsOriginally posted by thelimit0310Comment
