nba chase 12/13

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  • itsjhurley
    SBR Rookie
    • 11-09-12
    • 43

    #3081
    Thanks for clarifying that. <3
    Comment
    • Riceboi
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-03-11
      • 857

      #3082
      Originally posted by gamewinninglv
      S2 C bet for Cavs is 1-25-13 Home game, if it does not cover, the next home game is 1-29-13 against Warriors.

      There will not be D bet against D bet on Saturday between Cavs and Raptors because S2 is Cavs home game only.

      Saturday is S4 D bet Raptor fade (bet on Cavs) only, not two D bets against each other.



      IMPORTANT: If you are new to this thread or if you don't know what's going on. Please go to page 46 and read post #1586 for a quick understanding BEFORE posting any questions/comments that may already been covered in that post. Thank you for your cooperation and have a Great Day !!!
      oops game is correct, I thought cavs were at home for some reason.
      Comment
      • zonedog
        SBR Rookie
        • 10-08-10
        • 28

        #3083
        Saturday is also S4 B bet Raptor fade (bet on Cavs) because of Toronto vs. Miami OT last night. Go Cavs!
        Comment
        • gamewinninglv
          SBR High Roller
          • 09-18-12
          • 207

          #3084
          Just called the referees who are going to be officiating Cavs games tomorrow and Saturday, told them to make sure Cavs will cover the spread in the next two games. They said NO Problem !!!


          IMPORTANT: If you are new to this thread or if you don't know what's going on. Please go topage 46 and read post #1586 for a quick understanding BEFORE posting any questions/comments that may already been covered in that post. Thank you for your cooperation and have a Great Day !!!
          Comment
          • Wallco99
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-01-11
            • 7261

            #3085
            People just have the uncontrollable urge to type shit constantly, to where as now, a barage of incorrectly posted future plays is causing total confusion. Just put your damn fingers in your pocket and wait for Stifler to post the plays. Trust me, he won't forget. By the looks of it, he is the ONLY one who ever gets it right anyway. So stop constantly asking shouldn't this be a play or shouldn't that be a play? Or what's worse, posting the wrong plays because either you have no idea how the system works, or for some unknown reason, have the need to be the system prognosticator without even looking at schedules or matchups, and ALWAYS assuming the next game the team plays is also the system play. My God, let's go back to the "when do we lose juice" arguement and leave the play posting to the system creator.
            Comment
            • Grinder12000
              SBR MVP
              • 04-21-11
              • 1809

              #3086
              Comparing backtested numbers to this years is not realistic. Back testing ONLY shows that there is a positive trend. Just like Stiflers MLB system, real life betting will underperform backtested numbers. It's how backtesting systems work.

              Backtesting will always be better the live wagering. The reason is that back testing you always take the best of the best. It's very very rare with live betting out performs tested numbers.
              Comment
              • nicktran808
                SBR Sharp
                • 12-30-12
                • 276

                #3087
                Looks like it's time to put in a deposit to continue these system plays.

                Not gonna lie, it's tough to stick with it when it's a drawn out chase. Moreso when you got a lot on this current Magic chase.

                Funny thing is, I do the most betting research and everything, yet I lose way more than any of my casual betting friends. I change my betting style literally every few days to try and maximize winnings and minimize losses, yet the jokes on me at the end of it =(

                Hoping the Magic upset the Nets.
                Comment
                • zonedog
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 10-08-10
                  • 28

                  #3088
                  Originally posted by gamewinninglv
                  Just called the referees who are going to be officiating Cavs games tomorrow and Saturday, told them to make sure Cavs will cover the spread in the next two games. They said NO Problem !!!


                  IMPORTANT: If you are new to this thread or if you don't know what's going on. Please go topage 46 and read post #1586 for a quick understanding BEFORE posting any questions/comments that may already been covered in that post. Thank you for your cooperation and have a Great Day !!!
                  As a token of appreciation I also told those same referees that if they comply they will get free unlimited access to a local strip club of their choosing for an entire week and they were ecstatic to hear that.
                  Comment
                  • CheeseHead
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 12-03-10
                    • 439

                    #3089
                    Originally posted by nicktran808
                    Looks like it's time to put in a deposit to continue these system plays.

                    Not gonna lie, it's tough to stick with it when it's a drawn out chase. Moreso when you got a lot on this current Magic chase.

                    Funny thing is, I do the most betting research and everything, yet I lose way more than any of my casual betting friends. I change my betting style literally every few days to try and maximize winnings and minimize losses, yet the jokes on me at the end of it =(

                    Hoping the Magic upset the Nets.
                    To be fair you might be overthinking it...you can't over analyze on these games and change your betting style every few days & expect to make money in the long-run. Focus on a system that works for you (not necessarily a chase) and stick to good money management. It takes a lot of patience to come out ahead long-term. Your buddies might brag to you how they just won a few hundred on the Heat one night, but you probably won't hear about it when they lose 5 or 6 straight and empty their account. Happens to just about all "casual" betters. Just remember you'll only hear when they win..shouldn't let it get to you.
                    Comment
                    • zonedog
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 10-08-10
                      • 28

                      #3090
                      Originally posted by Grinder12000
                      Comparing backtested numbers to this years is not realistic. Back testing ONLY shows that there is a positive trend. Just like Stiflers MLB system, real life betting will underperform backtested numbers. It's how backtesting systems work.

                      Backtesting will always be better the live wagering. The reason is that back testing you always take the best of the best. It's very very rare with live betting out performs tested numbers.
                      Fair enough. So then what should be the minimum 'realistic' expectation based on those backtested numbers? 70% of those numbers? 50%?
                      Comment
                      • nicktran808
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 12-30-12
                        • 276

                        #3091
                        Originally posted by CheeseHead
                        To be fair you might be overthinking it...you can't over analyze on these games and change your betting style every few days & expect to make money in the long-run. Focus on a system that works for you (not necessarily a chase) and stick to good money management. It takes a lot of patience to come out ahead long-term. Your buddies might brag to you how they just won a few hundred on the Heat one night, but you probably won't hear about it when they lose 5 or 6 straight and empty their account. Happens to just about all "casual" betters. Just remember you'll only hear when they win..shouldn't let it get to you.
                        Yea I'm still trying to find a niche I can stick with.

                        So far this year I've been trying to do NBA 1H totals but in the long run I've evened out to around 50%. Usually I lose big on Fridays and 10 or 11 game nights, so I figured I'd try and avoid betting on those nights but I still end up bleeding money a little.

                        Hopped onto Stifler's chase recently, but these ORL losses combined with the bare minimum I deposited into 5dimes are draining me. JM and Wallco's system make sense to me but I find Stifler's the easiest to jump into and follow mid-season

                        I think once I replenish I'll solely stick to Stifler's chase and bet big units on high percentage 9-times-out-of-10 bets that pop up a handful of times a week (which I should have been doing more of recently) e.g. Pacers-Heat few weeks ago, Thunder beating the Clippers w/o CP3, Miami > Duke, etc.
                        Comment
                        • miczz14
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 01-22-13
                          • 146

                          #3092
                          so where did the system got its 3 losses? what team and team faded?
                          Comment
                          • Stifler
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-11-09
                            • 3511

                            #3093
                            Originally posted by Stifler
                            24.01.2013

                            S4


                            (C Bet) Tor fade: Lakers -4,5 1,10u| Miami -10,5 2,31u| Orlando -4 4,85u
                            (A Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u
                            records:
                            S1: W 40 | L 2 (+ 3,10 units)
                            S2: W 20 | L 0 (+20,00 units)
                            S3: W 12 | L 0 (+12,00 units)
                            S4: W 34 | L 1 (+17,55 units)
                            additional: -1,10 units Den fade

                            pending:
                            - S2 Cle fade, C Bet on 25.01.2013
                            - S2 Orl, C Bet on 28.01.2013
                            - S4 Tor fade, D Bet on 26.01.2013
                            - S4 Dal fade, B Bet on 25.01.2013
                            - S1 Utah, B Bet on 25.01.2013
                            - S4 Tor fade, B Bet on 26.01.2013



                            ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

                            all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                            Comment
                            • Riceboi
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 10-03-11
                              • 857

                              #3094
                              Originally posted by miczz14
                              so where did the system got its 3 losses? what team and team faded?
                              the S4 loss was a Mavs fade. I don't remember the S1 losses, maybe Orlando?
                              Comment
                              • edli
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 11-29-12
                                • 7

                                #3095
                                Originally posted by Riceboi
                                the S4 loss was a Mavs fade. I don't remember the S1 losses, maybe Orlando?
                                S1 loss is Denver & Detroit
                                Comment
                                • Riceboi
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-03-11
                                  • 857

                                  #3096
                                  Originally posted by edli
                                  S1 loss is Denver & Detroit
                                  thanks
                                  Comment
                                  • Stifler
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-11-09
                                    • 3511

                                    #3097
                                    25.01.2013

                                    S1

                                    (B Bet) Utah: Utah -7 1,10u | Utah - no line up yet
                                    (A Bet) Det: Detoit - waiting on line movement
                                    (A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee - waiting on line movement

                                    S2

                                    (C Bet) Cle fade: Atlanta -4 1,10u | Boston -4 2,31u | Milwaukee - waiting on line movement

                                    S3

                                    (A Bet) GS fade: Chicago - no line up atm

                                    S4

                                    (B Bet) Dal fade: Orlando +3,5 1,10u | Spurs - no line up atm
                                    (A Bet) Mia fade: Detroit - waiting on line movement


                                    ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586


                                    Comment
                                    • miczz14
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 01-22-13
                                      • 146

                                      #3098
                                      lets go MIL and DET.. i hope CLE fade ends on the C bet
                                      Comment
                                      • Askii
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 01-25-13
                                        • 45

                                        #3099
                                        One quick question.

                                        If Cle covers this game. We will have a battle of D bets vs Fade Cle and Fade Tor this 1.26.2013. Am i correct? Just want to make this clear. Thanks.
                                        Comment
                                        • Ji-a
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 01-09-13
                                          • 19

                                          #3100
                                          Originally posted by Askii
                                          If Cle covers this game. We will have a battle of D bets vs Fade Cle and Fade Tor this 1.26.2013. Am i correct? Just want to make this clear. Thanks.
                                          The current Cle fade is @home and their game at 26th against Tor is away. So no.
                                          Comment
                                          • Stifler
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-11-09
                                            • 3511

                                            #3101
                                            - Detoit line added.

                                            25.01.2013

                                            S1

                                            (B Bet) Utah: Utah -7 1,10u | Utah - no line up yet
                                            (A Bet) Det: Detoit +9,5 1,10u
                                            (A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee - waiting on line movement

                                            S2

                                            (C Bet) Cle fade: Atlanta -4 1,10u | Boston -4 2,31u | Milwaukee - waiting on line movement

                                            S3

                                            (A Bet) GS fade: Chicago - no line up atm

                                            S4

                                            (B Bet) Dal fade: Orlando +3,5 1,10u | Spurs - no line up atm
                                            (A Bet) Mia fade: Detroit +9,5 1,10u
                                            ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                            all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

                                            Comment
                                            • Grinder12000
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-21-11
                                              • 1809

                                              #3102
                                              Fair enough. So then what should be the minimum 'realistic' expectation based on those backtested numbers? 70% of those numbers? 50%?
                                              The million dollar question. This is why personally I wager less then a normal unit on the 1st year of a live system. I wanted to see the anomalies that show up that you don't see when backtesting. Plus how much stress is there in a system. If you are pooping your pants every night winning one unit . . .is it worth it?

                                              Any monkey can create a winning system that works for one year - Stifler has a track record in MLB which is why I jumped on the bandwagon.

                                              If we win 25 units in a year that is fine with me. I just up what a unit is worth next year!
                                              Comment
                                              • Stifler
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-11-09
                                                • 3511

                                                #3103
                                                Some wise words there. Dont just look @ those > 100 units for the backtested seasons. Winning 100 units over a season is a monster number, and cant be done every season thats fur sure. The thing about the whole system is that even if the system is underperforming it keeps some space not to get in the losing area. Still i have to add the mlb season finished strong compared to the winning units (something around 110-120 units, dunno exactly).

                                                Like grinder said the first year is more like a test of the system. I already know i will make changes next year. But nevertheless the goal is to finish the season in the + area. How far this goes? No one can tell...
                                                Comment
                                                • Nino7
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 07-11-09
                                                  • 798

                                                  #3104
                                                  I don't get why would a system underperform when you actually play money on it.Except the fact the system's players might influence the lines in case of heavy success.
                                                  Of course there are ups and downs but it doesnt have to necessarly always go down.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Grinder12000
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-21-11
                                                    • 1809

                                                    #3105
                                                    I don't get why would a system underperform when you actually play money on it.Except the fact the system's players might influence the lines in case of heavy success.
                                                    Because backtesting you have the perfect world and can pick the very best results. For instance if Stifler slightly modifies the teams each year it means some teams are underperforming. So if Detroit in S1 all of a sudden sucks after 1/2 a year we continue to play them all year as "we" don't know if it is a trend or an anomaly.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Nino7
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 07-11-09
                                                      • 798

                                                      #3106
                                                      Originally posted by Grinder12000
                                                      Because backtesting you have the perfect world and can pick the very best results. For instance if Stifler slightly modifies the teams each year it means some teams are underperforming. So if Detroit in S1 all of a sudden sucks after 1/2 a year we continue to play them all year as "we" don't know if it is a trend or an anomaly.
                                                      yeah your right.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Grinder12000
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-21-11
                                                        • 1809

                                                        #3107
                                                        And one more thing about some of the posts on this forum.

                                                        Some people have been getting flamed for posting what they THINK are the next days plays. What we must remember is that some people are in bed sleeping when Stifler posts the plays. I've had people emailing me asking questions from literally all over the world. One dude from the Philippines is +8 GMT and is fast asleep when Stifler posts plays.

                                                        Just sayin - sometimes they are just trying to make a buck, not trying to show off.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Nino7
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 07-11-09
                                                          • 798

                                                          #3108
                                                          not to mention that it has already happened that someone pointed a forgotten play up.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • parlay100
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 09-23-09
                                                            • 117

                                                            #3109
                                                            Originally posted by Wallco99
                                                            People just have the uncontrollable urge to type shit constantly, to where as now, a barage of incorrectly posted future plays is causing total confusion. Just put your damn fingers in your pocket and wait for Stifler to post the plays. Trust me, he won't forget. By the looks of it, he is the ONLY one who ever gets it right anyway. So stop constantly asking shouldn't this be a play or shouldn't that be a play? Or what's worse, posting the wrong plays because either you have no idea how the system works, or for some unknown reason, have the need to be the system prognosticator without even looking at schedules or matchups, and ALWAYS assuming the next game the team plays is also the system play. My God, let's go back to the "when do we lose juice" arguement and leave the play posting to the system creator.
                                                            Forget it Wallco i have tried twice with the same post. But no luck. out of control.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • imotiv8
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-28-09
                                                              • 892

                                                              #3110
                                                              yo, what happened with the Boston fade road series
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Stifler
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-11-09
                                                                • 3511

                                                                #3111
                                                                Originally posted by imotiv8
                                                                yo, what happened with the Boston fade road series
                                                                post #2867. Already finished on 20.01.2013!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • imotiv8
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 12-28-09
                                                                  • 892

                                                                  #3112
                                                                  mybad, thx Stif
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Stifler
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-11-09
                                                                    • 3511

                                                                    #3113
                                                                    - Milwaukee & Spurs line added.

                                                                    25.01.2013

                                                                    S1

                                                                    (B Bet) Utah: Utah -7 1,10u | Utah - no line up yet
                                                                    (A Bet) Det: Detoit +9,5 1,10u
                                                                    (A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee -4 1,10u

                                                                    S2

                                                                    (C Bet) Cle fade: Atlanta -4 1,10u | Boston -4 2,31u | Milwaukee -4 4,85u

                                                                    S3

                                                                    (A Bet) GS fade: Chicago - no line up atm

                                                                    S4

                                                                    (B Bet) Dal fade: Orlando +3,5 1,10u | Spurs -1,5 2,31u
                                                                    (A Bet) Mia fade: Detroit +9,5 1,10u


                                                                    ________________________________________ ________________________________________

                                                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Pellpell4
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 01-25-13
                                                                      • 28

                                                                      #3114
                                                                      Hey guys, new to the forum. Where can I find more info about how to read stiflera lines? I don't get the a b c bet thing. I did read original post however. Ty very much, excited to test this out!

                                                                      Edit, just saw stiflers sig. Thx
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Grinder12000
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-21-11
                                                                        • 1809

                                                                        #3115
                                                                        LOVE HATE TEAMS

                                                                        Did a quick count if all the games we have played counting how many times a team won or lost in the system so far.

                                                                        example

                                                                        (A Bet) Tor fade: Orlando -4 1,10u both Tor and Orlando get a loss

                                                                        Love teams are
                                                                        Charlotte 10-4
                                                                        Memphis 7-2
                                                                        Brooklyn 4-1
                                                                        Washington 7-3

                                                                        HATE teams are
                                                                        LALakers 1-5
                                                                        Orlando 5-8

                                                                        Most of the rest are around .500 some teams we have been playing a lot

                                                                        Of note
                                                                        Atlanta 13-12
                                                                        Toronto 12-13
                                                                        Cleveland 9-7


                                                                        Phoenix 1-1
                                                                        Philly 2-1







                                                                        Comment
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