nba chase 12/13

[thelimit0310]

Comparing backtested numbers to this years is not realistic. Back testing ONLY shows that there is a positive trend. Just like Stiflers MLB system, real life betting will underperform backtested numbers. It's how backtesting systems work.

Backtesting will always be better the live wagering. The reason is that back testing you always take the best of the best. It's very very rare with live betting out performs tested numbers.

You're incorrect. If you backtest a system and get many years of results it doesn't predict the future but it doesn't mean the live betting will inherently be worse than what you backtested. That's just an assumption, not a fact whatsoever. If you go back long enough you can get an average that the trend will almost always defer to. That's called statistics. Also, just off the top of my head:

Stiflers MLB system performed exactly as backtested
Stiflers NBA system this year is performing WORSE on a Covers backtest than live betting it, the exact opposite of what you said
Wallco's Chase -110 went UNDEFEATED it's first year, that's performing better than any of his backtested years

[Nino7]

I think a part of what Grinder meant is that when you base the setting of some of your criterias on the results of the backtest themself to get them better (ie eliminate some teams based on their results) u artificially dope the statistics and can't get the same kind during the next seasons.Though I agree that if you set up your criterias otherwise and get your backtest results from them then yeah the next seasons should look like the backtested one.

[Melda]

Wish you didn't have a big bet on the bucks tonight.. They're losing outright to my Cavs

[Stifler]

Wish you didn't have a big bet on the bucks tonight.. They're losing outright to my Cavs

k thx 4 info. I like bucks today.

[Melda]

k thx 4 info. I like bucks today.

Haha i don't know if that is sarcasm, but I hope bucks cover for your followers' sake.

[thelegend67]

Haha i don't know if that is sarcasm, but I hope bucks cover for your followers' sake.

now that is sarcasm.

[nicktran808]

Fresh deposit, put money down on all but 1 chase bet today. Hoping the CHI line goes to -2 though before I place a bet on that.

Another 10 game day tomorrow, hopefully some winnings today can cover the numerous bets tomorrow.

Curious question--how do you guys make a spreadsheet for tracking these bets? I just jumped on board the chase wagon literally 4-5 days ago so I'm just listing all the bets in chronological order

[samrock67]

Fresh deposit, put money down on all but 1 chase bet today. Hoping the CHI line goes to -2 though before I place a bet on that.

Another 10 game day tomorrow, hopefully some winnings today can cover the numerous bets tomorrow.

Curious question--how do you guys make a spreadsheet for tracking these bets? I just jumped on board the chase wagon literally 4-5 days ago so I'm just listing all the bets in chronological order

I just made a spreadsheet in google docs to keep track of active series- the top row is the name of the series(ex. "S3 Cle fade") and the spots below it are filled in as I place my bets to keep track of how much I placed on each bet(since I get reduced juice at 5D). Once a series wins, I delete the column. Simple but effective.

[licker9]

anyone wanna share their spreadsheet?

[nicktran808]

I just made a spreadsheet in google docs to keep track of active series- the top row is the name of the series(ex. "S3 Cle fade") and the spots below it are filled in as I place my bets to keep track of how much I placed on each bet(since I get reduced juice at 5D). Once a series wins, I delete the column. Simple but effective.

Dam, sounds simple effective easy and clutter free. I don't plan on keeping a history/track of these chase bets, so I might start doing that with new series starting next week, while maintaining my current ones in their format until they close out.

[Huego]

if you guys aren't taking advantage of reduced juice at 5Dimes you're doing it wrong.

[rustie]

Dam, sounds simple effective easy and clutter free. I don't plan on keeping a history/track of these chase bets, so I might start doing that with new series starting next week, while maintaining my current ones in their format until they close out.

Or you could just wait till Stiffler posts his plays and then just quietly follow along.

[samrock67]

if you guys aren't taking advantage of reduced juice at 5Dimes you're doing it wrong.

+1

I had been doing it wrong for too long. Love the reduced juice!

[Grinder12000]

Stiflers MLB system performed exactly as backtested

Well if you call winning almost 70 units less then average "exact" I suppose you are correct!

How many plays did wallco have - if it was not over 300 it does not count. 300 on something like this would be inside the standard deviation.

You can't pick and choose 3 systems as a proof that I'm wrong LOL

[olmec]

Hey guys Chi -2,5 and Utah +5 isnt fair enough?

[Ji-a]

Well if you call winning almost 70 units less then average "exact" I suppose you are correct!

I didn't play stiflers MLB chase, but looking at the backtested numbers and how he actually did last year... I'm probably going to join next season.

On his backtests 2009 season was huge. But you should remove that season from the equation, when you're trying to predict and set expectations on how the system could actually perform. The difference between 2009 and all the other seasons is so big that it's only going to distort the outcome with so small sample size (6 seasons).

Stiflers backtests (without 2009) predicts about +170 units in 335 chases per season. Last year he did +140 units in 304 chases. So -30 units, but also -31 chases.

"Stiflers MLB system performed exactly as backtested

Or if not "exactly" then pretty damn close.

[Wallco99]

One quick question.

If Cle covers this game. We will have a battle of D bets vs Fade Cle and Fade Tor this 1.26.2013. Am i correct? Just want to make this clear. Thanks.

Please see post #3085 for an in depth explanation.

[Wallco99]

And one more thing about some of the posts on this forum.

Some people have been getting flamed for posting what they THINK are the next days plays. What we must remember is that some people are in bed sleeping when Stifler posts the plays. I've had people emailing me asking questions from literally all over the world. One dude from the Philippines is +8 GMT and is fast asleep when Stifler posts plays.

Just sayin - sometimes they are just trying to make a buck, not trying to show off.

Good point, if in fact that is the case. But in several instances, that doesn't seem to be the reason. They aren't asking for the plays, they are playing out scenarios of possible matchups two and three games from now, and incorrectly doing so I might ad. This has nothing to do with nap time, this has to do with the need to constantly post something in a forum. But I get what you mean.

[Wallco99]

not to mention that it has already happened that someone pointed a forgotten play up.

Exactly. But those comments should be PM'd to him directly instead of trying to show him up on the thread. And of the well over 400 posts asking if something was a play, that is the only example of him actually missing one. But I also see your point.

[Wallco99]

Dam, sounds simple effective easy and clutter free. I don't plan on keeping a history/track of these chase bets, so I might start doing that with new series starting next week, while maintaining my current ones in their format until they close out.

Always keep a track record of all your bets in spreadsheets. It will more than pay for itself somewhere along the line. I couldn't live without mine being set up that way. I have a 20 page spreadsheet with all the different systems I play, running tallies with individual systems, sports, and years, as well as combined. They are all color coded and show overlapping plays among my systems for a given day so I know what bets to SKIP. It is all coordinated with my private book so all the figures and numbers jive with my account. Spent a lot of time initially making it, but unless I forget to place a bet for an early game or something of that nature, there is never one mistake.

[Stifler]

- Utah & Bulls line added.

25.01.2013

S1

(B Bet) Utah: Utah -7 1,10u | Utah +5 2,31u
(A Bet) Det: Detoit +9,5 1,10u
(A Bet) Mil: Milwaukee -4 1,10u

S2

(C Bet) Cle fade: Atlanta -4 1,10u | Boston -4 2,31u | Milwaukee -4 4,85u

S3

(A Bet) GS fade: Chicago -2,5 1,10u

S4

(B Bet) Dal fade: Orlando +3,5 1,10u | Spurs -1,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Mia fade: Detroit +9,5 1,10u


________________________________________ ________________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

[olmec]

Hey guys Chi -2,5 and Utah +5 isnt fair enough?

Any idea about the lines?

[Wallco99]

Any idea about the lines?

Don't snort them too fast, it could burn your throat!

[oldscho0led]

Detroit bet looks good. S1 and S4 combined.

[rustie]

Don't snort them too fast, it could burn your throat!

[Grinder12000]

Always keep a track record of all your bets in spreadsheets. It will more than pay for itself somewhere along the line.

+1 to that.

Couple weekends ago I got the Norovirus and if anyone has ever had that it's just horrific! After 14 straight hours of hell in the bathroom I NEEDED to place some wagers. Luckily my spreadsheets had what the next wager amount for the noon game so dashed to the office clenching - placed a bet and dashed back and collapsed!

ALWAYS KEEP TRACK - you never know when you might not have time to sit and think.

[gamewinninglv]

+1 to that.

Couple weekends ago I got the Norovirus and if anyone has ever had that it's just horrific! After 14 straight hours of hell in the bathroom I NEEDED to place some wagers. Luckily my spreadsheets had what the next wager amount for the noon game so dashed to the office clenching - placed a bet and dashed back and collapsed!

ALWAYS KEEP TRACK - you never know when you might not have time to sit and think.

Just want to say that your story is hella nasty sir. Too much info ........ but funny

[J.M. Disciple]

Whats a good site to check ML's on? I was watching OKC game other day and noticed a stat that popped up where OKC's coach wins 60% of his games, but most of the time I believe they are 2:1 favorite or so. What does this mean? If you are getting 2:1 being underdog only needs to be 33% upsets to break even, but since thunder lose 40% of the time, you have a 7% edge. I am curious how this season and past seasons have done betting all underdogs on the ML.

[chimp]

i'll be hedging out of milwaukee at half

[itsjhurley]

I swear this has been happening all week. Ever since the okc game.

[J.M. Disciple]

Com'on now MIL!!!! 21-8 run in the 4th!

[pellumb341]

Com'on now MIL!!!! 21-8 run in the 4th!

these mothefukas were leading by 20 points at the end of 3rd qtr . At the middle of 4th qtr they were 6 poitns behind

[NoHero]

penetrating Bucks.

[Melda]

I told everyone don't bet aganst my cavvvvvvvvvvvvs tonight

[mrk77]

NBA is becoming a joke to me, it's ridiculous how there's always a blowout quarter to screw the spread