Afl 2012

[brettels]

GEE- the collingwood line sticks out to me.

[brettels]

I like a couple QT lines

Carlton -5.5

West Coast -11.5

[Gee]

Here are the openers for those keeping track.

Nothing stands out at first blush... I don't think these lines will move much at all, unless there is big team news.

1. BRISBANE 3.00 +18.5 : 1.91
2. CARLTON 1.38 -18.5 : 1.91

1. ESSENDON 1.22 -27.5 : 1.91
2. PORT ADELAIDE 4.20 +27.5 : 1.91

1. SYDNEY 1.65 -7.5 : 1.91
2. FREMANTLE 2.22 +7.5 : 1.91

1. WEST COAST 1.06 -47.5 : 1.91
2. MELBOURNE 8.75 +47.5 : 1.91

1. COLLINGWOOD 1.13 -37.5 : 1.91
2. RICHMOND 5.75 +37.5 : 1.91

1. ADELAIDE 1.20 -29.5 : 1.91
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS 4.50 +29.5 : 1.91

1. NORTH MELBOURNE 1.01 -77.5 : 1.91
2. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 15.00 +77.5 : 1.91

1. ST KILDA 1.06 -48.5 : 1.91
2. GOLD COAST 8.75 +48.5 : 1.91

1. GEELONG 2.30 +9.5 : 1.91
2. HAWTHORN 1.60 -9.5 : 1.91

[Gee]

It happened last year.

Fatigue more of a factor in round 1 and defensive structures not fully set up yet.

I made a few mistakes last season by not adjusting and betting a few too many overs.

I can't believe you guys didn't get the port over...

What a great weekend. We all cleaned up i think!

[benrama]

Books are not in the habit of over-adjusting because that can equally over-expose them to people betting the other way. One round is not enough to judge whether it's a structural change to the way teams are playing or just an anomaly of round 1 - we might equally see teams adjust during the week to emphasise the pressure defense of last year again.

That said, I'm already looking to play the over in the Lions v Carlton game and think I'll have to jump on the line early.

[Crowing Capers]

ROUND 1
4-5 on the favs covering the line
2-7 under/overs
Leaning to punters over bookies in round 1( in my case anyway)
Agree with Maroona the books will adjust the points maybe up by goal or so next round with the way round 1 was played. Still think this will be a good play in a lot of games with the more attacking style of footy that will be played this year.

[maroona]

Bloody hell, was way off the mark this week. Liked both the dees and saints to have big wins, ordinary start to the year!

I have a feeling after all the overs, the unders will be good value next week if the market over-corrects, and teams react to the big scores.

I agree, with all the overs this weekend the books will re-assess and some unders may be value next week, some lines were way off also, i'd expect them to be a lot sharper next week, books would of got punished with all the overs hitting, public loves to back overs and favourites, looks like everyone on here had a profitable weekend

[Coopertrooper]

Bloody hell, was way off the mark this week. Liked both the dees and saints to have big wins, ordinary start to the year!

I have a feeling after all the overs, the unders will be good value next week if the market over-corrects, and teams react to the big scores.

[sumwon]

Dam, that was the worst last quarter of footy this week, and up there with all time. well done to port. sumwon got it wong. bad luck mate!

haha I see your pun

[garygroundwork]

bad luck mate. thought port got a fair run with the umpires

[brettels]

Dam, that was the worst last quarter of footy this week, and up there with all time. well done to port. sumwon got it wong. bad luck mate!

[sumwon]

i can only say.....

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOO... =P

[sumwon]

last quarter! saints behind by 5.... big sweat.... =)

[brettels]

Port started so well and looked like taking it away but the saints intensity has gone up a level. Shulz, apart from the out on the full he did he's bloody good. Was sad to see him go.

[Lookingtostart]

Well, that may be the last time I'll do a write-up on my teams, Eagles winning comfortably and Kennedy with 7.

So far all interstate teams won (except for GWS who played Sydney), but with Port, who knows.

[Coopertrooper]

I actually ended up changing my mind. The more I thought about it, the more I thought I was relying on the saints winning comfortably anyway, so took the -16.5

Don't rate the power, even at home, and think the saints will be alright this year.

[brettels]

Sorry cooper, I'm on the over. The total line is low enough for me an following my gut feel

[Coopertrooper]

Kennedy getting a few junk time goals now, up to 7 goals! Eagles have covered the line very easily, I'm going to roll it over into the under, seriously think the trend can be defied in this game. Port aren't great offensively, and the saints are a solid defensive team. On the flip side the saints could kick a reasonable score, think it comes down to how well the saints can contain port.

[benrama]

Agree - this Eagles/Doggies game is a cracker, even if now it looks like the Eagles quality has put the game away. Cash another over too in the round, there was some analysis by Eade before the game started where he basically said as a reaction to the press which worked so well last year teams are looking to get it out of their own half much quicker and that naturally leads to more scoring.

The only game I won't be touching the over on however is Port v St Kilda - either team could have a shocker offensively, and I expect the Saints to be as strong in defense as they were last year.

Port +16.5 has to be the only play worth considering for the late game.

[brettels]

You should be ok, i'm as confident in the saints as i was about melbourne beating brisbane, like you last leg of a multi. they lost, i think the saints are different though, they should win and i expect them to.

[sumwon]

that's all I can say right now, shitting myself LOL

It's just all this talk you guys are having about avoiding it and the home game to port adelaide! making me sweat a bit =)

[brettels]

It's a game alot of people including myself are avoiding

[brettels]

It looks like your shitting yourself about this match lol should be ok, key word being should!

[sumwon]

I have a really lucky 10-leg parlay/multibet going and only have St Kilda ML left to win... I just want to know... how does it look =(

[brettels]

Yeah Cooper, kennedy can mix it up with franklin and reiwoldt for the coleman. Think he keeps it up in second half? Commentators said he is "underdone" but didn't specify his issue.

[Coopertrooper]

It is a good match, the doggies are digging in more than I thought they would. They just won't go away, even with Kennedy bagging 5 in the first half.

[brettels]

Every time you think the eagels are about to take it away, the doggies get a couple to bring it back. This is actually a good match to be watching.

[brettels]

Eagles looking good, bulldogs in patches too, looking better than last year for sure.

[brettels]

Hardwick has won a premiership at every club he's been with. Essendon and Port as a player, hawthorn as assistant coach. Now, he just has to complete it by bringing richmond a premiership

[Lookingtostart]

Port don't have the best players, that's for sure, though I think they could be a lot better.

Interesting the Tigers/Port comparison, Hardwick played for Port! You can have all our current coaches as well

[brettels]

Are you sure it's not just bias? They are your other team right? Blame the coach all you like, your only as good as the cattle you have! That said, I think Richmond signed hard wick too early. The only good players for port now are Ex Richmond players, Schulz and rodan. Haha

[Lookingtostart]

You really think Port are a better team with better players? I have to disagree with you completely. The only thing they might be better in is playing at AAMI stadium.

That's cool, most people would think the same. IMO, coaching has a lot to do with Ports performance last year.

[Lookingtostart]

Its too late, I'm already on them


About the forward line though it still looks very good, LYNCH, DARLING, NICNAT and COX rotating then you got gaff and hams. The mids with kerr and priddis, they like a goal or two don't they?

I still see it as eagles, but now you have me biting my nails.

Didn't mean to scare you, I'm mainly going on what happened last year, and so are the bookies it seems. If it is going to be a close game, expect Cox to save you're ass! The guys a bigger legend than you may think.

I may be over compensating being an Eagle fan and playing conservative.

[brettels]

You really think Port are a better team with better players? I have to disagree with you completely. The only thing they might be better in is playing at AAMI stadium.

[Lookingtostart]

I think Port will be more of an interesting proposition. I will wait to see this match to see how future matches will prevail. It's all about the coaching, M Primus may not be as much in charge as you may think, if they are making the same structural and fundamental mistakes as last year then he is in charge so fade. Yeah, sounds like a qualitative assessment, but it's too early in the season to go by stats.

Port are a better team then St Kilda, they have better players, they should win, only the coach can fµck this up. If Port play too defensively, fade (so may be a good live bet). If they play a balanced field, hold the ball in they forward area, not let it re-bound like a tone of bricks, make the midfield a 50/50 contest, they should win.