Afl 2012

[Gee]

Alright.

It doesn't matter anymore.

No one needs to get the last word after this post hopefully

I agree with the early rounds overs comment. Posted something about that in another thread last night.

I dunno where you guys are, but I think we have most of Australia covered. Let us know how the weather is before each game. You don't even have to worry about Dockers at Subi where I am. Its fine and the ground is great.

I left bet365 because live betting went out the window. I think I need to go back just to hit early totals... I don't see them anywhere else.

[benrama]

I was addressing Gee

Talk to me like that in person and I crack your fking head in, but easy to hide behind a keyboard isn't it?

But yes moving on ...

[ultrasouth]

As for the ultrasouth comment, sorry I have a low tolerance for BS

You really need to get some help go see your local doctor or something.We have all moved on and you continue to bring it up you know what GO FU@K YOURSELF that is all.

[Coopertrooper]

Happy I kept away from the pies and hawks match.

Liking the dees at -14.5

[Crowing Capers]

Good call Robzilla.
Crows by plenty, get on em to cover the line and take a bit of the 40 plus...
I'm taking a bit of the 60 plus on PYOL
1st post here. We all here for the same reason so good luck lads let's have a cracker of a season

[robzilla]

I got Adelaide ML early at -420

[benrama]

Good work gentlemen! I was on the Hawks too, knew it was square as but couldn't resist. To be honest the game should have been MUCH closer than that if it wasn't for the Pies being way off with their finishing, but after losing Carlton 1-39 last night will take it.

You guys have way more trust in Adelaide than I do, but leaning towards the Freo/Geelong over too, I think a lot of the early round games have a good chance of overs in good weather.

As for the ultrasouth comment, sorry I have a low tolerance for BS

[kingsr]

SEX!

[nocode1]

Nice work brettels

I'm going with freo/Geelong over 178.5 - 1 unit

Also find the essendon/north 204.5 quite juicy, just waiting to see if Petrie plays

Multi is still alive also

[MrXYZ]

I made quite a few bucks on your Hawks/Storm pick, thanks & good luck tomorrow.

[johno35]

Good shit Brettels!

[brettels]

My bets tonight

Hawks/Storm @2.34

Line & over/under double, hawks-6.5 &over 176.5 @3.65

Hawks/Pies over 176.5 @1.88

Good luck

That's how its done

[johno35]

Hey guys did some research, last year when a team played in Perth the week after they failed to cover the spread 16 out of 19 times. I think this is the result of West Coast and Freo improving. When they were easy beats the few years before it was still roughly 9-11 from 18-20 times. Just food for thought

[brettels]

Back to whirlpool

Talk about footy or don't post in this thread.

[brad89]

You're a SHITBLOKE #FACT

Back to whirlpool

[brettels]

What a 2nd quarter, 13 goals (14 including behinds)Hawks are "delicious"

[brettels]

I can kiss the over good bye already, looks like colliwobbles are back

[Lookingtostart]

sometimes a spade's a spade, go Hawks!

[Gee]

Kingsr, snapped it up at bwin when I posted the play.

It is still at 24.5 now.

They don't update their lines quickly, but they are always at $1.85, so they don't have to.

I find WillHill and soem of the other UK books are the same. They are happy for you to pay -120, so a few points line move won't make a difference.

I think the line moves (and has already) big toward crows though.

GO HAWKS TONIGHT!@

[garygroundwork]

Hawks -6.5 now, 1.67 ML.

Storm ML/Hawks ML @2.34

Waiting for the total

Don't worry about it ultrasouth, it was said in-play so sounded like you were having a dig. But, you think i didn't know if they won 40+ it would lose the bet? That was basically the question, will carlton win 40+ !! I'm over it, if you do it again, obvious troll is obvious.

@GEE if your leaning the same over/under as me it will be a sure play for me.

@Garygroundwork you are spot on about the UMPS. Well said. Whats your play tonight?

@Benrama nice writeup, who do you support in afl?

mate like last night i haven't touched anything yet.

i am on adelaide and melbourne tomorow

[therealdealau]

Pies +7.5

[brettels]

the 1.88 is only on totals, i do have the hawks -6.5 @2.00 but they will go back to 1.92 next week. It's where my money is and it doesn't bother me, totals stakes are always lower than 80%+ of my bets and more often get put into multi's. it is a shit price i know but it doesn't bother me.

[kingsr]

Where'd you get 24.5? It's 27 at a few books I just quickly checked.

[Gee]

Get on the Crows -24.5 now guys. I have hit it for a unit. This closes at about 30 IMO.

Why are you playing $1.88 lines brettels?

Even friggin' bet$3.65 are better than that and they are horrid!

[Coopertrooper]

Can't back against my pies tonight, even though the number of outs (and questions over the replacements like Keefe, Rounds, Sinclair, and other new kids as well as marty back for his first game) is large, and I wouldn't be confident of a win. Think we could still put in a good effort, the midfield looks alright, and we should have the advantage in the ruck. Also think Cloke/Dawes/Fasolo will be a very potent attack this year. Bit undecided, think I might go a soft little bet on the first goalkicker just for an interest, and leave the line betting for later in the round.

[Domestic]

Best of luck on your plays tonight guys. Still have not made up my mind, myself.

[brettels]

My bets tonight

Hawks/Storm @2.34

Line & over/under double, hawks-6.5 &over 176.5 @3.65

Hawks/Pies over 176.5 @1.88

Good luck

[robzilla]

Anyone think that the Crows wont win by more than 30?

[brettels]

I dunno gee, i like the over if its 175.5

[Gee]

Nah, more sports has a great vibe to it as a forum.

PT has too many crap that goes with it.

I just locked in Hawks -6.5. There are good reasons to take each side, but I trust a full strength Hawks vs a short handed Pies. I also don't really rate Buckley from what I know and have seen, so its a different pies team we are looking at today. New coach, about a dozen players out of their best 22.. If you look at the team list, it isn't dramatically different from the team that got thumped by the Crows in the NAB cup. The Pies unknowns did not impress me then. I know its hard to read into the NAB cup, but its all we have... unless you are willing to just wager on faith.

I agree that this is definitely a danger game... we'll see what happens

Brettels: my lean is under. I see bet365 has under 175.5. That is probably about right. I will probably take it anywhere around 180, but I doubt I'll get that lucky.

[Lookingtostart]

I think the Crows may be the safest bet this week, apparently no injury concerns and I like their coach. Also like Lions, too much public emotion on Melbourne, I'm sick of it, over-hyped. Loved the way Lions finished off their season last year.

Hawks may be a trap, this will be a popular game, Collingwood for me.

On another note, what if this thread is linked to "Player's Talk"? This is the main AFL thread for this season, or at least that's the intention. Just a suggestion.

[brettels]

Hawks -6.5 now, 1.67 ML.

Storm ML/Hawks ML @2.34

Waiting for the total

Don't worry about it ultrasouth, it was said in-play so sounded like you were having a dig. But, you think i didn't know if they won 40+ it would lose the bet? That was basically the question, will carlton win 40+ !! I'm over it, if you do it again, obvious troll is obvious.

@GEE if your leaning the same over/under as me it will be a sure play for me.

@Garygroundwork you are spot on about the UMPS. Well said. Whats your play tonight?

@Benrama nice writeup, who do you support in afl?

[kingsr]

No worries Ultrasouth, you apologised and explained yourself...let's move on...

HAWKS ladies and gentleman!

[Gee]

In fairness Ben, I think ultrasouth posted it at around half time when the spread was still in the balance.

Brettels was still every chance of winning both bets. I don't think he wasn't rubbing it in after the fact. Brettel's did ask how it lost.

Anyway, this is the more(Aussie) sports forum. Lets move on.

Brettels: you are right about NAB cup form hype. Unfortunately, it is really all anyone has to go on at this stage. I didn't start a thread or go too hard until round 6 last year. I may not post many bets until then. Just half unit leans.

Collingwood are short handed, but this is a different set up to last night. Hawthorn can punish them; Richmond couldn't punish the Blues who were in a different league. I'm going to wait until very late to play this one though. I think it comes back to 7 or 6.5.

LTS: no moves yet. Still at 7.5. Pinny is juicing the +7.5 now though...

[Lookingtostart]

Epic games on tonight in league and AFL, with Collingwood having about half their top side out (Krackers, Tarrant, Maxwell, Beams, etc) the play has to be Hawthorn - possibly even in a rout. My concern is every man and their dog is on Hawthorn like they were on Richmond last night, and that just never seems to end up well.

Exactly, I can't help but think bookies know something in advance! Perhaps they knew about Hodge in advance? What else I wonder...

Has the line moved (is the line moving) because news of Hodge? Hmm...