Afl 2012

[Lookingtostart]

I'm with Hawks -12.5, I like the over 178.5 on Bet365, even if it's wet (not too wet).

So everyone's with the Hawks to cover?!

[maroona]

Yeah sportsbet are good though, like the $1.95 lines and they are one of the first with totals out, its a innovative product they have so i'm not surprised that they would listen and act on their customers suggestions

[brettels]

Nah i'm in QLD, but Melbourne's not looking too good - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml#skip , books seem very cautious with AFL totals, think they've been caught out a few times putting it up too high with bad weather around, be interesting to see what they bring out todays at, i'm thinking around 175-180, good on you for writing to them, might get some action, which one did you write to?

Sportsbet, wrote to them about PYOL then suddenly they put them up, wrote to them about line/over&under doubles then suddenly they are up, wrote to them about how they were excluding tennis challenger matches from multibets(they were the only ones doing that) and now we can multi those too. So now i wrote them about the totals, hopefully this changes as well. I really think having them up earlier will be more profitable for the aussie books long term.

[maroona]

I just had that feeling there was an arrangement with sydney in the first round not to absolutely flog them! Then a side like north beat them by more than 100 points, pretty evidential.

Are you in melbourne? hows it looking? the ausbooks still haven't got any totals up. I wrote them last night about how embarrassed they should be that a UK book can have them up 24 hrs or more before they do, they might get there shit together in that department as i'm 3 from 3 in getting things changed at 1 book.

Nah i'm in QLD, but Melbourne's not looking too good - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml#skip , books seem very cautious with AFL totals, think they've been caught out a few times putting it up too high with bad weather around, be interesting to see what they bring out todays at, i'm thinking around 175-180, good on you for writing to them, might get some action, which one did you write to?

[brettels]

Line out to -12.5 now but I still like it, might play that instead of a total, things have settled down a bit now after a crazy week 1 and overs are not hitting with the ease they did then, its a shame GWS and the suns can't be more competitive, makes those games difficult to assess from a betting perspective, see what happens with the weather tomorrow but most likely stick with Hawthorn, they are the real deal this year, look very hard to beat..

I just had that feeling there was an arrangement with sydney in the first round not to absolutely flog them! Then a side like north beat them by more than 100 points, pretty evidential.

Are you in melbourne? hows it looking? the ausbooks still haven't got any totals up. I wrote them last night about how embarrassed they should be that a UK book can have them up 24 hrs or more before they do, they might get there shit together in that department as i'm 3 from 3 in getting things changed at 1 book.

[maroona]

Good point, i hadn't checked that when i posted before. As you said, lets see how it pans out by around 2-2:45pm ! Can still go over in the wet, but if its belting down with hail and wind, under should be safe as long as the total doesn't move. Whats your lean maroona? I'm stuck with my early play of hawks -10.5 and still confident.

Line out to -12.5 now but I still like it, might play that instead of a total, things have settled down a bit now after a crazy week 1 and overs are not hitting with the ease they did then, its a shame GWS and the suns can't be more competitive, makes those games difficult to assess from a betting perspective, see what happens with the weather tomorrow but most likely stick with Hawthorn, they are the real deal this year, look very hard to beat..

[Domestic]

I would expect the total for the Cats/Hawks game to open up at about 185.5. I'm playing the over no matter what it opens up at.

[brettels]

That seems low for these 2 teams, only reason I can see is the weather forecast, 90% chance of rain and some hail and strong winds, might have to wait until a little closer to see how it pans out

Good point, i hadn't checked that when i posted before. As you said, lets see how it pans out by around 2-2:45pm ! Can still go over in the wet, but if its belting down with hail and wind, under should be safe as long as the total doesn't move. Whats your lean maroona? I'm stuck with my early play of hawks -10.5 and still confident.

[maroona]

$3.65 has the over/under for the game tomorrow at 178.5 and that looks good for the over, i have a feeling the aussie books will open it higher. No scarlett opens up more goals for the hawks.

That seems low for these 2 teams, only reason I can see is the weather forecast, 90% chance of rain and some hail and strong winds, might have to wait until a little closer to see how it pans out

[brettels]

$3.65 has the over/under for the game tomorrow at 178.5 and that looks good for the over, i have a feeling the aussie books will open it higher. No scarlett opens up more goals for the hawks.

[brettels]

Go TIGERS! Lets not get are arses kicked tonight!!!!!!!

Only playing hawks -10.5 for the rest of the round. Good luck to the rest of you on your plays.

[brettels]

Anyone have a record of what the total over/under was for sydney vs gws and melbourne vs brisbane in rd 1?

[therealdealau]

Bombers -25.5
Dockers ML

[brettels]

Sydney/fremantle

Over 180.5

[brettels]

Really unsure of the line with essendon/port and the total 207.5 is also a difficult one for me at this stage. There is no play from me here on this match, it will be good just to sit back and be able to measure up where these two teams are at.

[Lookingtostart]

I like Adelaide this year, really like their coach and what he's done at Geelong. Not sure where Bulldogs are at. Might make a play on it of others chime in.

[johno35]

I have Port +25.5, Swans -7.5 and Adelaide -29.5 on my thread. Good luck Brett!

[brettels]

Will have some plays closer to the start of first game today.

[brettels]

Can't change the title because the caps won't stay without an emoticon at the end. Same as in posts.

Problem is some people post in Players Talk and don't come into the subforums... that's why you see the various threads. I just have to make a point to check every thread each week so I don't miss anything

Yeah I didn't think people in players talk would be interested in AFL when I made this thread.

[shari91]

This is meant to be that one big AFL thread! Just cause I started the thread doesn't mean its my picks only, its for everyone to discuss and share some picks. See the first post of the thread.

Also, if it is possible can you change the thread title so the Afl is AFL?

Can't change the title because the caps won't stay without an emoticon at the end. Same as in posts.

Problem is some people post in Players Talk and don't come into the subforums... that's why you see the various threads. I just have to make a point to check every thread each week so I don't miss anything

[brettels]

Good job Brettels! I wish we had one big thread. I always forget to bounce into each AFL thread until matches have already started.

This is meant to be that one big AFL thread! Just cause I started the thread doesn't mean its my picks only, its for everyone to discuss and share some picks. See the first post of the thread.

Also, if it is possible can you change the thread title so the Afl is AFL?

[shari91]

Good job Brettels! I wish we had one big thread. I always forget to bounce into each AFL thread until matches have already started.

[brettels]

Adding Total match goals OVER 28.5

Oh yeeeeahhhhhh

Results Mood Barometer

[shari91]

Paying $1.75 surely that is not standard? We get $1.83 lines over here and that's bad enough

TAB's pretty bad to begin with but prices fluctuate weirdly there ie right now they're offering Collingwood/Richmond +35.5 for $2.05/$1.78. And yet Sporting is offering $1.91 on each side. Then they have Geelong +10.5 at $1.95/$1.95. Sporting has Geelong +12.5 at $1.91. No clue what drugs they smoke there or if they solely do their own thing based on volume/cash coming in and don't bother looking at the market at all but I only check them out for results and to see what funky lines they're offering.

[brettels]

Brisbane vs Carlton

Picks

Carlton -20.5

Carlton QT line -5.5

over/under 191.5 OVER


SCALE of CONFIDENCE:

Good result

[MatI]

The question i am asking you guys is how bad is Melbourne?

I think they are BAD.

[brettels]

And thats OVVEEEERRRRRR

[brettels]

Angelo its difficult to measure how bad melbourne are with how not as bad they are.

[hawley]

http://www.tab.com.au/Sports/Informa...5T00%3a00%3a00

If you scroll down in each event, you'll see the over/under total and what it was. It'll look something like this:

AFL Rd1 Frem-Geel TSOvUn Total Score Over/Under - WINNER

2752

W. Over 180.5 Points

1.75

Paying

Paying $1.75 surely that is not standard? We get $1.83 lines over here and that's bad enough

[angelo63]

The question i am asking you guys is how bad is Melbourne?

[brettels]

The total, uh oh!!!!

[brettels]

http://www.tab.com.au/Sports/Informa...5T00%3a00%3a00

If you scroll down in each event, you'll see the over/under total and what it was. It'll look something like this:

AFL Rd1 Frem-Geel TSOvUn Total Score Over/Under - WINNER

2752

W. Over 180.5 Points

1.75

Paying

That helps, thank you.

[Pride]

lions falling apart

[shari91]

Actually just need the totals from the bookies in round 1 if anyone has them

http://www.tab.com.au/Sports/Information/Results/Default.aspx?State=1&FromDate=2012-03-29T00%3a00%3a00&LocationCode=0&ddlcmp=All&ddlsp=1%7c0&selecteddate=checked&MeetingType=1&ToDate=2012-04-05T00%3a00%3a00

If you scroll down in each event, you'll see the over/under total and what it was. It'll look something like this:

AFL Rd1 Frem-Geel TSOvUn Total Score Over/Under - WINNER

2752

W. Over 180.5 Points

1.75

Paying

[brettels]

Actually just need the totals from the bookies in round 1 if anyone has them