Alt75's AFL & NRL Thread

[Alt75]

Cheers man. Yeah shitty day for AFL betting indeed. Too many uncertainties today. Gladly I chucked another $1 on North 60+ @ $7 just before betting closed, **** that last rushed behind was a relief. Bets are looking ok so far, Cowboys up by 12 & Storm up by 12 in the 2nd half. Tigers up by 10. Get there you good things.

I'll be back in the morning with my Sunday footy and UFC 129 picks. I'm around 80% on the last few 2 UFC cards (20-24) and 100% from the recent Strikeforce and Bellator cards. If you guys want to follow my picks on something MMA is what I really understand and follow religiously plus I often get insider info on how fighters camps and personal lives have been going leading up to their fights. I've only got back into following and betting on footy week in week out since Lions won their 3 at the beginning of the decade. I'm gonna start posting all my picks in here. Probably just jinxed my fight calling but anyway.

[donkson]

I've liked most of your picks in the thread, doing very well.

Can't see much around for tomorrow though, pretty straight forward games, I might only go with some DT bets, there seems to be some very good value around there.

gl though.

[Lookingtostart]

I'm not sure about gold coast. With last week's win they might be fired up, but they lost Bock through suspension, they are going to need as many of their experienced players as they can get, especially in defence! If I had to play, then Gold Coast +70.5 for me. Any thoughts?

[Alt75]

Dammit Manly had a very late surge and only lost by 2. Only leg on the multi I dropped. From now on when I take a multi, I'm playing all legs as straight bets.

Morning guys, thanks donkson

Lookingtostart: Honestly, the honeymoon is over for the Suns. Last week was more about how crap Port are than the Suns IMHO. Without Bock I think Dons smash them after being fairly competitive with the Collingwood. My pick would be Dons to cover, maybe even a small play on +100.

--------------------------------------

UFC 129 picks

Few guys on the undercard I don't know enough about so just picking the fights I'm very confident on

Ben Henderson v Mark Bocek: Ben Henderson decision/tko
Bensons wrestling and sub defence too good for Bocek. Bendo controls the pace to a unanimous decision or possible tko.

Rory MacDonald v Nate Diaz: Rory MacDonald decision/tko
Rory to well rounded for Nate to sub or control for a decision.

Jason Macdonald v Ryan Jensen: Jason Macdonald decision/sub
Jensen is flakely, he tapped to an arm triangle from half guard that wasn't even fully locked in to Court McGee unless he catches J-Mac with a huge shot, he'll probably tire and give his back up late in the fight.

Jake Ellenberger v Sean Pierson: Jake Ellenberger tko/decision
Ellenberger is one of the best Welterweights, not a good night for Pierson. Jake will dominate this fight, either a short tko via gnp or a one sided decision.

Lyoto Machida v Randy Couture: Lyoto Machida tko
Randy far too old to deal with the speed and accuracy of Machida, plus Machida has the wrestling base to not be bullied by Randy, look for Lyoto to return to the Zuffa hype machine with a decisive KO over the legend Randy, in what will be his retirement fight.

Jason Brilz v Vladimir Matyushenko: Jazon Brilz dec/sub
Brilz, much younger, too well rounded for Vladdy to be able to get a win outside of a somewhat flukey TKO. I think Brilz possibly taps Vladdy with a guillotine, tko from ground n pound or rides out a decision. Brilz opened at even money, shame I waited till after weigh ins as he's dropped to $1.92 now

Jose Aldo - Mark Hominick: Jose Aldo tko/sub
Aldo looked a little weak after the weigh ins, hopefully he is re-hydrated and near on 100% for this fight.
Hominick has a punchers chance, a good one with his solid striking. Jose is better every where, if Jose is getting lit up on the feet he can take Mark down and then Hominick is in the shit with a Nova Uniao BB.

Georges St Pierre v Jake Shields: GSP tko/dec
GSP peppers jabs for 3-4 rounds, maybe takes Jake down late and peppers him with elbows. Comprehensive decision or a doctors stoppage due to cuts/swelling.

Jake has a grapplers chance. But after seeing him nearly get finished by Mayhem I really doubt he will have much of an advantage over GSP on the mat. Unless he latches onto something early Jakes going home looking like Sloth from Goonies and Mr Ed's love child.

[camel]

I'm taking Bombers minus the line.... too experienced, too quick... it'll get ugly quickly.

Although at some point in this season, GC will eventually start covering lines and these bookies will stop giving out such high lines.

[donkson]

I'm not sure about gold coast. With last week's win they might be fired up, but they lost Bock through suspension, they are going to need as many of their experienced players as they can get, especially in defence! If I had to play, then Gold Coast +70.5 for me. Any thoughts?

This makes no sense to me.

[Alt75]

UFC 129 Bets laid


3: (Straight) Ellenberger Wins Inside The Distance @ 3.25
3: (Straight) Machida Wins Inside The Distance @ 1.75
1: (Straight) Brilz Wins Inside The Distance @ 4.00
3: (Straight) Aldo Wins Inside The Distance @ 1.50
1: (Straight) St Pierre Wins Inside The Distance @ 2.25
$1 Multi @ $76.78

Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Jake Ellenberger v Sean Pierson - Jake Ellenberger | MULTI Odds: 5.48 - $4 Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Jason Brilz v Vladimir Matyushenko - Jason Brilz - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Georges St-Pierre v Jake Shields - Georges St-Pierre - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Lyoto Machida v Randy Couture - Lyoto Machida - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Jose Aldo v Mark Hominick - Jose Aldo - Win - Head To Head (Pending)

Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Jose Aldo v Mark Hominick - Jose Aldo | MULTI Odds: 34.76 - $2 Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Benson Henderson v Mark Bocek - Benson Henderson - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Lyoto Machida v Randy Couture - Lyoto Machida - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Jake Ellenberger v Sean Pierson - Jake Ellenberger - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Jason Brilz v Vladimir Matyushenko - Jason Brilz - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Nathan Diaz v Rory Macdonald - Rory MacDonald - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Jason Macdonald v Ryan Jensen - Jason MacDonald - Win - Head To Head (Pending) (WinningLeg) Multi - UFC - UFC 129
Georges St-Pierre v Jake Shields - Georges St-Pierre - Win - Head To Head (Pending)

--
Ellenberger first round KO. wow what a left hook!

wasted a dollar on hedging first leg of inside the distance parlay on Jake by dec.

Comprehensive decision to Rory Macdonald. Submission win to Jason Macdonald. Benson Henderson unanimous decision. I'm pretty really confident the 8 leg straight multi will hit now. derp

Oh ffs, Brilz gets dropped in the first 30 seconds by Vladdy, f'd that pick up bigtime.

Randy get's nailed with the Seagal inspired Karate Kid kick.

Aldo suffered from the weight cut, gasses after 2 yet wins a decision that was paying around $7. Shit carnt.
---------------
3: (Straight) Machida Wins Inside The Distance @ 1.80
3: (Straight) Aldo Wins Inside The Distance @ 1.40
1: (Straight) St Pierre Wins Inside The Distance @ 2.15
$2 @ $5.42
-----------

$5 (Straight) St Pierre Wins Inside The Distance @ 2.15

GSP talks more about finishing fights than he's capable off. Thanks for 25 mins of boring me to death you ******* prick.

7/8 from picks. $15 loss.

________________________________________ __________________________

Was preoccupied watching UFC here's my AFL bets.

Half Time Line Essendon ( -39.5) $2 @ 2.00
Essendon ( -72.5) $1 @ $2.00

Multi - AFL - Round 6 - Matches
Essendon v Gold Coast - Essendon | MULTI Odds: 8.40 - $1 Win - Super Margin (100+) (Pending) Multi - AFL - Round 6 - Matches
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs - Collingwood - Win - Points (-39.5) (Pending)

Hopefully this multi makes up for my over confidence on UFC today. I should have laid more straight bets, especially on Ellenberger. I'll learn my lesson flirting with huge odds - implied probability one day.

[binomial]

whats that last afl bet? essendon 100+ and collingwood to win by 40 or more? so it cashed? nice work.

what were the stand alone odds on essendon 100+ $4.50ish?

[Alt75]

whats that last afl bet? essendon 100+ and collingwood to win by 40 or more? so it cashed? nice work.

what were the stand alone odds on essendon 100+ $4.50ish?

thanks, yeah basically Dons -99.5 and Pies -39.5, i think it was $4 for -99.5, $2.10 for the -39.5

sticking with straight bets over the next few weeks, maybe a multi for shits and giggles here and there with my tipping % on ufc alone it's unfathomable I'm able to come out behind.

[donkson]

Brisbane at -41.5 against the GC looks good imo, saw GC first hand on sunday and they were horrid. Granted coming off a high against port you'd expect a bit of a downer, but I've liked the look of the Lions despite the fact they're winless.

[Alt75]

Yeah I like the Lions this week too, covering -41.5 would be a cert if they had Brown, without is a bit iffy.

Fortunately after a weekend of poor betting strategy I got 8/8 on the sportsbet NRL tipping and won a $50 freebet, ugh, looks like I didn't win the $50 free bet after all, margin was off by 2. Had one of my MMA bets refunded as a free bet, due to out tipping the "MMA guru". I need to find a good line, ideally over even money for this weekend.

NBA
Atlanta @ Chicago - Line & Total Double: Chicago -8.5 & Under 178.5 - $2.00 @ 3.35
Chicago lose by 8 nowhere near covering and total goes over.

LA Lakers (1-10) $3 @ 2.80
Lakers lose by 2 and to top it off I pick a first 4 on the trots, go to box it and I guess due to the odds sportingbet gives me some error "This product for this market is unavailable" and it comes off. At least I won some SBR points on a Mavs/Over parlay.

[Alt75]

NBA

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat - Under - 1st Half Points - Over/Under (<92.5) $2.00 @ $1.91

Miami -4.5 & Under 182.5 $2.00 @ 3.30
Miami covers but score goes over.

OKC v Mem
Memphis +6.5 & Over 196.5 $2.00 @ 3.60
OKC win 111-102 Memphis fails to cover.

Kevin Durant - Total Rebounds - Kevin Durant Rebounds - Over - $1 Win - Player Performance (>8.0)
Marc Gasol - Total Points - Marc Gasol Points - Over - $1 Win - Player Performance (>13.5)
Marc Gasol - Total Rebounds - Marc Gasol Rebounds - Over - $1 Win - Player Performance (>10.5)
Serge Ibaka - Total Rebounds - Serge Ibaka Rebounds - Over - $1 Win - Player Performance (>10.0)

Gasol, completely shut down, only scores 13 and 10 rebounds, Durant only gets 5, Ibaka 6

The only trend that continued between these teams was the over.

MLB
Seattle Win & Game Total Over 6.5 $2 @ 3.90
I followed Golden Greek on this play, accidentally clicked the over instead of under though, and it looks like it may come good.

[Alt75]

Forecast for Adelaide tonight is fine and light cloud & winds. I'm backing Hawthorn aren't affected from the bye and home ground advantage plus all the motivation in the world isn't going to help Port lift.

Hawthorn HT -17.5 @ $2

Hawthorn -29.5 @ $2

Hawthorn -59.5 @ $4.50

Shaun Burgoyne most disposals @ $26

From Group:

Travis Boak [PORT]
Kane Cornes [PORT]
Hamish Hartlett [PORT]
Danyle Pearce [PORT]
Sam Mitchell [HAW]
Shaun Burgoyne [HAW]
Luke Hodge [HAW]
Brad Sewell [HAW]


Not going to make the same mistake and rely on multi's, every pick I make will be laid as a straight bet from now on, learnt my lesson from last week and as to be expected had no luck during the week on races and misc sports to get back over $200, balance is down to $172.

NRL
Country Origin & Under 42.5 @ 2.80

Australia & Under 44.5 @ 2.25

[Reno Paul]

I'm on Hawthorn -30.5 as well......Let's get 'em!!!

[Alt75]

Matching em up team vs team wise it's looking a pretty safe even money bet, if Port get smashed in the midfield and Hawks forward line fires, Buddy and Roughead could kick half a dozen each. Worst case scenario for Port they fold before half time and am thinking this could possibly even end up like Bombers vs Suns.

[Pherst]

I'm on Hawthorn -30.5 as well......Let's get 'em!!!

Lucky on that one considering Rodan went down with a knee injury. If he didn't I think Hawthorn still would have won but not by 32. He was providing all their run and when he got injured they all stopped...

[Alt75]

Yeah it was basically lady luck that got Hawthorn to cover. Rodan was having a day out, poor guy.

Saturday's bets

NBA
Dallas -2.5 & Under 186.5 @ $4.00
Mavs cover but total score goes over to 190 in last 20 seconds.

AFL
Sydney +2.5 @ $2
Swans get home, felt em to be a better side and a bad match-up for Bulldogs. Plus, they have some inner turmoil with players social/business dealings, I expect them to fold this year.

Geelong -48.5 @ $2

Richmond +3.5 @ $2

Brisbane -59.5 @ $2.20

----
Even though I've tipped the Swans, it could go either way gonna try these 2 multi's hedging the most likely margin into the rest of my picks.

Swans 1-39 @ 2.70
Richmond 1-39 @ 2.85 Freo get blown out in 4Q by 49 should have stuck with the +3.5 in the multi
Geelong -48.5 @ 2.10
Brisbane -53.5 @ 2.10
$33.94

Bulldogs 1-39 @ 2.30
Richmond 1-39 @ 2.85
Geelong -48.5 @ 2.10
Brisbane -53.5 @ 2.10
$28.91
-----------

NRL

Melbourne & Under 39.5 @ $2.85
Melbourne 1-12 @ $3.10

[Alt75]

Sunday's bets

NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 @ $2.00
Miami Heat +1.5 @ $2.00

AFL

Essendon -31.5 @ 2.00
Bombers by 16

Bellator MMA
Rick Hawn @ $2.15
Hawn gets robbed in a dodgy split decision.


Multi @ $4.53
Chase Beebe $1.27
Bryan Baker $1.37
Rick Hawn $2.15
Essendon $1.21

Damn terrible day

[Brian891]

what an amazingly awful collapse by thunder. so talented but so young nand inexperienced. good luck with essendon!

[Alt75]

Thanks mate I'll need it! Think I could be going 0-4 today, aside Baker/Beebe in the multi.

Wasn't looking good but Bombers are staging a come back. Hopefully Eagles run out of legs and they cover or I'm down again after a slight increase yesterday. I felt Bombers might have a flat week after such a huge win last week but stuck with my method of matching up team vs team/recent form.

Yeah was shocked to see the score. I kinda follow the Jazz, but I really like watching Thunder and Mavs play, although I missed the game as it was on at like 5am Aus on a Sunday morning. Laid the NBA bets before bed last night, hoping to log on and see 2 wins to start off the day, alas no it set the tone for the day it seems. Hope you had a good weekend with your bets

[Alt75]

AFL
I don't rate the Saints at all, like the doggies I expect them to fold/implode this year and fail to make the finals.

Carlton to romp home easily and Judd to have a night out, best on ground with 30+ touches, long shot for most goals from the sportingbet group of 14, but crazier things have happened.

Carlton -19.5 @ $2

Carlton HT -12.5 @ $2

Carlton -39.5 @ 3.50 (freebet)

Chris Judd most goals @ $51

Chris Judd most possessions @ $4

From Group:

• Nick Dal Santo [STK]
• Brendon Goddard [STK]
• Jason Gram [STK]
• Leigh Montagna [STK]
• Bryce Gibbs [CARL]
• Marc Murphy [CARL]
• Heath Scotland [CARL]

AFL/NRL Multi @ $2
Manly -3.0 @ $1.45
Carlton ML @ $1.38

If Carlton don't come good tonight my sportingbet balance is looking pretty poor, down to $10.
This old Roys supporter will be cheering hard for the Blue baggers, oh the shame.

---
Completely bodged the analysis of the game, despite having a quiet first half Juddy came good and got the most disposals. Was an awful game to watch, at least I broke even for the night but am still down for the weekend, shame Blues didn't cover. Gonna be a grind building this $22 in sportingbet back up, over $50 is my goal for the week/next weekend. $140 in sportsbet, so balance is at $162. Should be doing better

[binomial]

GL.

i agree st kilda look busted, not sure carlton are a great side though.

leaning carlton 1-39.

[Reno Paul]

On Carlton -15.5 GL!!!!

[Alt75]

I think Carlton are possibly a top 4-6 side, if they win tonight they are 3rd or 4th depending on %.
They were competitive with Collingwood, drew with Essendon who smashed Saints by near on 12 goals and beat Swans who I rank as a definite finals side. Carlton like Essendon absolutely demolished the Suns, who beat Brisbane whilst St Kilda were lucky to beat Brisbane, they actually made the Lions look good, hell media were saying at that stage Brisbane weren't a bad side just young, inexperience and unlucky. Lost to Adelaide who Carlton beat whilst unconvincingly, it was probably their flat week.

I know footy math doesn't work as in team A beats team B, Team C beats A so team C must beat Team B also, but when ya add it up going on team vs team, recent form, omissions from injuries add the outcomes and score lines from this certain small batch of teams playing amongst themselves & against the same opposition, especially when they've played in the recent weeks give a fair indicator of how similarly ranked teams should fare against a weaker side. Obviously it's not a science it's just my postives/negatives system I use to help determine my picks, as well as the other factors. Saints have more negatives against them and haven't shown they can compete with top 8 sides and Carlton have more positives, the only blip was the flat week against Adelaide and have competed with top 8 sides. Carlton are playing better football, have the better men on the park and on paper should win/cover ideally blow the Saints out by around 10 goals. Or Saints could do a Port/Suns and show up to play, cover the + or get the upset. I bloody well hope not

Cheers guys and good luck to you too

[Alt75]

Geelong +8.5 @ $2.10
Cats by 3

St George & Under 37.5 @ 2.85
Dragons win 15-10

Brisbane -5.5 @ Under 40.5 @ $3.60
Penrith win 33-10

Multi @ $4.88
Geelong +8.5 @ $2.10
St George Dragons @ 1.53
Brisbane Broncos @ 1.52

My picks tonight parlaid with the AFL/NRL games and two MMA fights I'm extremely confident with over the weekend.

Multi @ 20.70
Canterbury vs St George: (Straight) St George @ 1.52
Geelong vs Collingwood: (Straight) Geelong @ 2.60
Penrith vs Brisbane: (Straight) Brisbane @ 1.52
Melbourne vs Canberra: (Straight) Melbourne @ 1.16
Brisbane vs Essendon: (Straight) Essendon @ 1.18
Sydney vs Port Adelaide: (Straight) Sydney @ 1.15
Michael Chandler vs Patricky Freire: (Straight) Patricky Freire @ 1.84
Falaniko Vitale vs Hector Lombard: (Straight) Hector Lombard @ 1.19

ATP Rome Multi @ $2.14
Berdych $1.75 blah to tennis
Djokovic $1.22

[binomial]

GL.

I played St George and Brisbane also.

Played Collingwood 1-39. I am impressed by Geelong but reckon Collingwood are the better side still.

[Alt75]

GL.

I played St George and Brisbane also.

Played Collingwood 1-39. I am impressed by Geelong but reckon Collingwood are the better side still.

Cheers, you too

I think Geelong are a better wet weather team, have the midfield to challenge Collingwood and grind out a win or at least cover the plus. Plus Collingwood coming off the bye against the #2 side is the ideal situation for an upset. Would have been interesting to see what the lines would have been in this was a Geelong home game at Skilled Stadium.

Brisbane I think will cover and contain Penrith enough to keep the score from going over and St George will shut Canterbury down in a low scoring game.

[Alt75]

Missed the close of betting for footy on Saturday night and wasn't much that interested me yesterday.

Monday's NRL
Manly 1-12 @ 3.10

[amac38]

Missed the close of betting for footy on Saturday night and wasn't much that interested me yesterday.

Monday's NRL
Manly 1-12 @ 3.10

great call mate, didn't get on this one as i don't do nrl.
but spot on!

[Alt75]

great call mate, didn't get on this one as i don't do nrl.
but spot on!

Cheers, another Aussie? Just bet on AFL I gather?

Some good value bets with NRL margins and winner/line & total doubles. I was slightly wary of Manly covering the even -5.5 line, but didn't think Titans would upset and wasn't sure of the total, nice to see I picked the correct play after a crappy past few weeks of breaking even each weekend at best. Haven't kept a running total/record but I think I'm doing pretty darn good on Monday night NRL games.

See you just joined last month, welcome to the forums tis a very informative place.

[amac38]

hey mate

thanks for the warm welcome, yeap Aussie tried my hand on a variety of sports but I'm doing well in afl and tennis

I'll keep following your thread mate, good to see some aussies around here. All the AFL cappers here are pretty sharp, yourself included

cheers for your tips, keep it up! I'll let you know my thoughts (for what it's worth).

have a good one mate

[Alt75]

hey mate

thanks for the warm welcome, yeap Aussie tried my hand on a variety of sports but I'm doing well in afl and tennis

I'll keep following your thread mate, good to see some aussies around here. All the AFL cappers here are pretty sharp, yourself included

cheers for your tips, keep it up! I'll let you know my thoughts (for what it's worth).

have a good one mate

haha I wouldn't call myself a capper or a sharp. I'm just a dude who loves a punt and the idea of profiting from predicting/watching sports. I do better on races than I do on bloody tennis. If I ever need a mid week action fix and tennis is the only option in the future I'm just gonna take the dogs. Should have taken Dokic last night

I do ok with footy, I follow NRL a little more intently than AFL but MMA is my main sport, problem is due to playing with small stakes I often have this careless mentality where it's only a dollar or few who cares and end up making some overly optimistic plays on props and multi's, instead of throwing 5/10/20 bucks on a single ML, margin/line I'm confident on, then having a leg in all the multi's drop and ending up down/even anyway.

If you see a post with lots of multi's/props I'm probably slightly intoxicated and over confident/careless, stay away

I was hoping to be up over three to four hundred by now, withdraw some to sign up and deposit $200 on pinnacle to go pro here. I'm trying to change my multi lotto mentality, adopt more of a "pro" method, pick out good value margins/lines for even money or more and play as straight lines as I've hit a plateau and aren't making the consistent gains I set out to. I reset my spreadsheet and will keep track of that starting from this week.

Gee, Restrepo and therealdeal are the guys to follow on AFL, they do their homework properly and are more serious bettors. I read a few articles/check recent stats and go with gut instinct on the most probable outcome in my view mostly.

Yeah I'm always open to others opinions on the games or my picks. Look forward to your thoughts/input. Cheers

[Alt75]

Wednesday Bets

Dallas -5.5 & Over 192.5 @ 3.35
Mavs win by 9, total score hits 233

2010/11 NBA Championship Winner: Dallas Mavericks @ 3.35 - still pending obviously

Following GG on MLB
Chicago Cubs Win & Game Total Under 7.5 @ 3.90
Cincinnati win 7-5

[Alt75]

Thursday bets.

Chicago -1.5 & Over 181.5 @ 3.60
Miami win by 10 and score only hits 160

Miami @ Chicago - Which Player will make the First 3 Point Field Goal - Derrick Rose (CHI) @ 4.75
Robbed by Bogans

[Alt75]

Going to put a bit more effort into analysing my picks and game posts.

Dug up this site from google if anyone wants more in-depth AFL stats than found on the bloaty official AFL site - http://www.footywire.com

AFL round 9

Geelong vs Carlton
Ling, Longergan and Menzel out for the Cats, Milburn returns.
Joseph and Curnow out for Blues, Mclean and Laidler in.

Some big name omissions for the Cats I think they have the depth where it doesn't affect them too negatively though.

Weather forecast for Melbourne is mostly cloudy & windy. Should be dry all day and tonight, will update if any changes.

Carlton coming off bye, looked sloppy before the bye, both teams have had trouble kicking straight recently.

Carlton kicking 11.18, Geelong kicking 8.17 in their last games. Carlton 96.108 and Geelong 91.103 for the season.

Geelong were somewhat affected by the windy conditions at the G last week, Carlton had themselves to blame for poor disposal rather than weather or Saints defence. Despite Carlton having more points for, for the season that was padded by the huge win against the Suns in round 1, who Geelong haven't played. Carlton don't seem to have a lot of scoring options up forward. The one glaring difference between the teams is that Carlton are ranked 2nd in tackles per game where as Geelong are ranked 15th. However Geelong are 1st in disposals, opponent disposals per game diff, being undefeated and on top of the ladder their opponents clearly aren't getting enough of the ball for that stat to indicate they aren't a hard tackling side. Geelong are also 1st for least opponent points per game. Geelong should win comfortably. Geelong with an average win margin 29.40 and Carlton of an average loss margin of 28.00 for the season I would expect this to fall under the 39.5. However Carlton coming off the bye could be even sloppier with disposal and possibly be blown out in the region of 40-60 points.

Possible safe bets. Not going to use the term "lock"

Statistically I would go with the margin Geelong 1-39 @ $2.25
Gut instinct Carlton will get run over, due to bye and facing the top side -15.5 @ $2.00 & smaller play on -39.5 @ $3.60

Interesting stats
Geelong have won 6 3rd Quarters to Carltons 3 I'm also thinking with Carlton off the bye, both are 4-7 for 1st Quarters if they are flat Geelong should win the 1Q by more than a goal.

Geelong Quarter Time line -4.5 @ $1.92

3Q time line -11.5 @ 1.92
Sportsbet don't have the ML's or spreads up for the individual quarters yet.

Geelong ML $1.44: Should be safe in a multi with another leg of $1.41 or higher to get an even money bet, parlayed with tonight's Canterbury Bulldogs +2.0 @ 1.42 in tonight's NRL game is what I'm leaning towards. St Kilda -1.5 or Essendon ML is another possibility.

I've been contemplating a multi system, based from the games I pick margins and the even money lines from, parlaying legs of odds of around $1.42 with ML's, + spreads or at worst - spreads that are -5.5 or under, games where a straight win or win by more than a goal that are typically no value for a rec punter but are highly probable to eventuate to get even money & over multis with relatively low risk. I'm going to give this a test run this weekend, any feedback on this idea is welcomed.

Will update with the bets I lay later.

_________________

Friday's Bets

Dallas 1-10 @ $2.75
OKC win by 6

Total is too high for risking a double, while Mavs and Thunder seem from my casual understanding to be high scoring "over" teams. I doubt there'll be a repeat of a 233 total, it could be anywhere from 180-210. Unsure if either side will cover 6.5, Mavs have covered the - 11 straight in playoffs I'm not taking a chance on such a long trend ending or continuing, I think Mavs win again, less than the 9 from game 1.

AFL
Geelong -15.5 @ $2.00

NRL
Canterbury -5.5 @ $2.00

Multi @ $2.16
Canterbury ML @ $1.52
Geelong ML @ $1.42

post game: Stupid gut instinct, spent an hour "capping" the game this morning pick out Cats 1-39, decide to see how the weather plays out and ended up going with the points. Stupid Canberra Raiders too.


7 leg "system" multi of my picks for Friday/Saturday NBA, AFL, NRL. Will try some doubles and triples as well as this is sure to fail one way or another

Didn't take long.

$1 @ $11.72
Multi - NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals - 19th May Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks - Dallas Mavericks - Head To Head (Pending) 1.42
Multi - AFL - Round 9 - Matches
Carlton v Geelong - Geelong - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.44
Multi - AFL - Round 9 - Matches
St Kilda v Melbourne - St Kilda - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.40
Multi - AFL - Round 9 - Matches
Port Adelaide v Fremantle - Fremantle - Win - Pick Your Own Line (+2.5) (Pending) 1.44
Multi - AFL - Round 9 - Matches
Richmond v Essendon - Essendon - Win - Pick Your Own Line (-1.5) (Pending) 1.45
Multi - NRL - Round 11 - Matches
Pick The Line - Canterbury Bulldogs - Canterbury Bulldogs - Win - Pick The Line (+2.5) (Pending) 1.40
Multi - NRL - Round 11 - Matches
Pick The Line - Wests Tigers - Wests Tigers - Win - Pick The Line (-1.5) (Pending) 1.40