Originally posted by Alt75
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Holy shit, I should pay attention to these more often
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I heard on SEN before the game Cloke would likely be playing deep in the goal square, so thought I'd chance the prop. Looks like it may pay off.
1-39 is shaky unless Melbourne rally.Comment -
Well done! Like I said before, I can't believe I missed that! Cloke has been very dangerous lately, Pies back-men were never going to let a Demon player kick a bag of goals so that was very good value.Comment -
Cheers
Against some lower ranked sides where Lions won't get blown J Brown for Brisbane might be good value for most goals, despite yesterdays performance he'll likely kick the bulk of Lions goals, generally good for 4-5 when fit and teams without a gun forward generally have a bunch of 2-3 goal contributors and half a dozen or so kicking singles.Comment -
They're playing richmond at the Gabba, should be between him and Jack R. Should be interesting.Originally posted by Alt75Cheers
Against some lower ranked sides where Lions won't get blown J Brown for Brisbane might be good value for most goals, despite yesterdays performance he'll likely kick the bulk of Lions goals, generally good for 4-5 when fit and teams without a gun forward generally have a bunch of 2-3 goal contributors and half a dozen or so kicking singles.Comment -
Should be able to take both of them and get well over even money on either outcome. Cloke was the shortest priced for most goals today. I think Green was around $10. Sylvia would have been over $20. Play the tall strong fowards in good dry conditions and the pockets in the wet, would be an idea.
These were my picks from UFC yesterday, 9 from 12 I bloody hit, all my single bets were method of victory though.
Omigawa was robbed on one of the worst decisions in the history of the sport. Einemo had Herman in trouble and give Nunes another minute he could've finished Ken Flo if he had time to finish after dropping him in last 10 seconds. I also figured Kenny would gas cutting to 145lb for the first time. One of the closest I've come to a 12 leg on an entire card.
12-06-2011 05:55 81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Demian Maia v Mark Munoz - Mark Munoz | MULTI Odds: 565.24 - $1 Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) $1.00 1.85 Resulted $0.00 $-1.00
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Shane Carwin v Junior Dos Santos - Junior Dos Santos - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 1.62
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Diego Nunes v Kenny Florian - Diego Nunes - Win - Head To Head (LosingLeg) 3.25
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Donald Cerrone v Vagner Rocha - Donald Cerrone - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 1.23
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Dustin Poirier v Jason Young - Dustin Poirier - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 1.30
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Aaron Rosa v Joey Beltran - Joey Beltran - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 2.35
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Sam Stout v Yves Edwards - Sam Stout - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 1.62
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
James Head v Nick Ring - Nick Ring - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 1.72
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Darren Elkins v Michihiro Omigawa - Michihiro Omigawa - Win - Head To Head (LosingLeg) 1.38
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Krzysztof Soszynski v Mike Massenzio - Krzysztof Soszynski - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 1.25
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Dave Herman v Jon Olav Einemo - Jon Olav Einemo - Win - Head To Head (LosingLeg) 2.55
81516633 Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Chris Weldman v Jesse Bongfeldt - Chris Weldman - Win - Head To Head (WinningLeg) 1.26Comment -
Following GoldenGreeks underdog +ev picks on MLB with my titanbet/poker monies, something to tide me over until the SOO tonight
Orioles @ $2.32
Marlins @ $2.79
Indians @ $2.60
Mets @ $2.15
Nationals @ $2.16
50 cents per single leg, 25 cents on 5 legs, 5 cents per double, treble and quads. $4 to return $43.54
heh lost about $2.20, will stick with my own picks from now on methinks. At least I wasn't that bored I actually watched baseball
NRL
Queensland ML $6 @ 1.70 to return 10.20
Queensland HT/FT Double 1-8/1-12 $10 Freebet @ $8.00
f'en nsw pricksComment -
LMAO degenerate alert
Comment -
I resemble that remark!
I've learnt to stay away from tennis at least, no more horsies either.
Quiet morning, I needed a fix and this potential $40 could get me mullet permed and tipped and buy a few beers at the R.S.L for the SOO.
GG has some good streaks, hopefully he's on form today. Can't do much worse than me on a poker table
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Not confident on a straight play on Broncos ML or the Dogs v Crows lines or total with the game at Etihad, think both games will be close and on recent form it should go under, while Crows and Dogs aren't in the best attacking form. Bulldogs have kicked some decent scores at Etihad this year and in recent years against Adelaide, going over 180. Was going to pass tonight but can't help myself on small plays on the margins and the ml/total multi.
AFL
Western Bulldogs 1-39 $2 @ $2.20 to return @4.40
NRL
Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $2 @ $3.50 to return $7
Multi $1.54 @ $3.57 to return $5.50
Brisbane Broncos ML/Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Under 181.5
$5.54 to return $16.90
Best of luck guys, have a great weekend
Off to a good start, everybody fade my picks tomorrow
Comment -
Bol you too mateOriginally posted by Alt75Not confident on a straight play on Broncos ML or the Dogs v Crows lines or total with the game at Etihad, think both games will be close and on recent form it should go under, while Crows and Dogs aren't in the best attacking form. Bulldogs have kicked some decent scores at Etihad this year and in recent years against Adelaide, going over 180. Was going to pass tonight but can't help myself on small plays on the margins and the ml/total multi.
AFL
Western Bulldogs 1-39 $2 @ $2.20 to return @4.40
NRL
Brisbane Broncos 1-12 $2 @ $3.50 to return $7
Multi $1.54 @ $3.57 to return $5.50
Brisbane Broncos ML/Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Under 181.5
$5.54 to return $16.90
Best of luck guys, have a great weekendComment -
Cheers sportscash
Swayed to North Melbourne after realising Bombers poor slump and returning from W.A. North have been quiet achievers.
Gonna play it sensible today, no multi's or props just these 2 straight bets.
After seeing the Hawks average scores for the year I'm not keen on the team total or total going over. But against the Suns they could kick a bag like most other sides. Can't predict which way the totals will go with any certainty.
Hawthorn vs Gold Coast
Hawthorn -67.5 $5 @ $1.92
Hawks by 71. That was a nail-biter, Hawks didn't cover till the last 3 minutes. Glad I stayed away from the overs on total and TT.
Essendon v North Melbourne
North Melbourne +4.5 $5 @ $2.00
North by 21
BOL chaps
100% for the weekend so far
NRL
Newcastle Knights & Under 41.5 $2 @ $3.20
AFL
Brisbane vs Richmond Under 191.5 $5 @ $1.88
Geelong 1-39 $3 @ 2.15
Could be a shower or two in Melbourne, moderate winds. Think Cats will take it in a low scoring close one.
Rounding off my titan poker change with this multi $.49 to return $2.97
Brisbane Lions ML/North Queensland Cowboys/Geelong v St Kilda Under 164.5 @ $6.06
That should do for the evening, lets see if I can go 8 from 8 tonight
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Undecided on Melb/Freo playing the Melbourne ML into my other picks to back up Freo +3.5 in the 6 leg I laid last night and I'm not so keen on today. Melbourne by 1-3 and Carlton 1-23 would be perfect
I'm thinking Melbourne could bounce back big and Freo's poor record at the G gets worse without Sandilands.
Carlton 1-39 $5 @ $2.15
Carlton by 34
My god another nail-biter, last minute free kick in Swans forward line saved a few people here I think
West Coast -49.5 $5 @ $2.10
Eagles by 22
Strikeforce
Overeem to finish Werdum in the first or second round. Reem by decision.
Barnett to gnp finish Rogers - Barnett by arm triangle, from mount.
Multi - Strikeforce - Strikeforce - Overeem v Werdum
Alistair Overeem v Fabricio Werdum - Alistair Overeem by KO | MULTI Odds: 6.84 - $2 Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - Strikeforce - Strikeforce - Overeem v Werdum
Brett Rogers v Josh Barnett - Josh Barnett by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)Multi - AFL - Round 13 - Matches
Carlton v Sydney - Carlton | MULTI Odds: 7.50 - $1 Win - Margin (1-39) (Pending) Multi - AFL - Round 13 - Matches
West Coast v Port Adelaide - West Coast - Win - Points (-49.5) (Pending) Multi - AFL - Round 13 - Matches
Melbourne v Fremantle - Melbourne - Win - Head To Head (Pending)Multi - Strikeforce - Strikeforce - Overeem v Werdum
Alistair Overeem v Fabricio Werdum - No | MULTI Odds: 2.00 - $2 Win - Will The Fight Go The Distance (Pending) Multi - AFL - Round 13 - Matches
West Coast v Port Adelaide - West Coast - Win - Pick Your Own Line (-22.5) (Pending) Multi - NRL - Round 15 - Matches
Pick The Line - Canterbury Bulldogs - Canterbury Bulldogs - Win - Pick The Line (+5.5) (Pending)Glad I missed the close of betting on the league games. Didn't want to play Storm due to the SOO and possible fan bias, and was on Bulldogs to cover and they get beaten by CronullaMulti Bet $1 @ 17.26
Carlton - Sydney Sydney (+23.5) 1.83
Melbourne - Fremantle
Fremantle (+3.5) 1.96
Fabricio Werdum - Alistair Overeem
Alistair Overeem 1.30
Brett Rogers - Josh Barnett
Josh Barnett 1.33
West Coast - Port Adelaide
West Coast (-47.5) 1.96
Canterbury Bulldogs - Cronulla Sharks
Canterbury Bulldogs 1.42
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I've been on this Czech 7.5% Primator Hellesbock all afternoon, so I expect my capping for Monday night NRL probably won't be so great tonight and I'm not risking much with my face this numb and mind wrought with indecision.
Well, I'm sure Manly will win, the line/margin and total is what I can't decide on. The ev money line is 2 converted try's. The Sea Eagles will either blow the Eels out or it's 8-12. Should I flip a beer cap and decide what to play?
The all seeing eye beer cap says 1-12 on the margin and under so that's what I'm playing. Call me a degen/alcho I don't give a rat's.
Rugby League > NRL Round 15 > Manly vs Parramatta > Manly vs Parramatta - HT/NT Margin Double - 1.Manly 1-8 / Manly 1-12 Straight $1 @ 7.50
Rugby League > NRL Round 15 > Manly vs Parramatta > Manly vs Parramatta - Match Winner & Total Double - 2.Manly & Under 37.5 Straight $1 @ 2.30
While I got the total wrong I was sidetracked by IM and I didn't finalise the match winner/total double bet on sportingbet before the game started
Single - NRL - Round 15 - Matches
Manly Sea Eagles v Parramatta Eels - Manly Sea Eagles - $1 Win - Margin (1-12) (Pending)
Not a bad night for a flip of a beer cap. $2 into $10.50 Wish I was so drunk I laid $100 instead of $1 now
Balance is up to $238Comment -
GL. I like it.Comment -
It's quite windy up in NSW tonight, upto 45km/h winds according to BOM, Manly like to play out wide. Conversions will be iffy and Parra have trouble scoring against top sides. Unless Manly blow Eels out it should be close HT/FT and under. Around 22-8 or so.Comment -
impressive work Alt.Comment -
Cheers mate, great weekend % wise but sadly don't have a big wad of cash to show for it. Although I'm glad my sportingbet account is up to $100 from under $20 a few weeks back. I am kinda kicking myself I lowballed with $1 bets last night and in general over the weekend, I guess it was the right thing to do in my state, I fell asleep not long after the start of the game with the room spinning. Maybe I should keep this beer cap and see how it does each week
Comment -
Originally posted by Alt75Cheers mate, great weekend % wise but sadly don't have a big wad of cash to show for it. Although I'm glad my sportingbet account is up to $100 from under $20 a few weeks back. I am kinda kicking myself I lowballed with $1 bets last night and in general over the weekend, I guess it was the right thing to do in my state, I fell asleep not long after the start of the game with the room spinning. Maybe I should keep this beer cap and see how it does each week
Comment -
AFL
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.35
Hawks by 66 with 2 mins to go.
Not confident on Hawks covering without Buddy or Roughhead. I'm expecting Essendon to turn up the intensity, increase their tackle count to slow the Hawks run and turn it into a close battle within 2 or 3 goals. On a relatively dry and not too windy evening the Hawks lack of height worries me I'm not discounting the chance of an upset but aren't going to bet on it.
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NRL
Even without Benji I think Wests will be far too good for the disappointing Bulldogs, thinking of taking Wests -11.5 pyol for $5.10 or Wests and the over 38.5 @ $4.10 in what could be a high scoring game, Wests attacking game, Bulldogs slack with defence coupled with the weather fine in Sydney could see the total being 40 or 50 +
Wests Tigers +1.5 @ $2.10
Bulldogs by 10
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Home game in Perth for the Rabbitohs, could be late storms in Perth.
While in past seasons Broncos have some huge wins over Souths at Suncorp, this is a neutral venue, and this year Souths haven't been getting blown out and Brisbane haven't been blowing sides out.
Brisbane Broncos 1-12 @ $3.15
Broncos down by 8 in 2nd half, doubt they'll turn it around.
Multi @ $15.05
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.35
Brisbane 1-12 @ $3.05
Wests +1.5 @ $2.10
Multi - AFL - Round 14 - Matches
Hawthorn v Essendon - Hawthorn | MULTI Odds: 5.79 - $1 Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - NRL - Round 16 - Matches
Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs - Wests Tigers - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - NRL - Round 16 - Matches
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Brisbane Broncos - Brisbane Broncos - Win - Head To Head (Pending)
$10 Loss
Props I'm considering.
Patrick Ryder Most Goals @ $9
The only tall forward on the ground, Hille back in rucking. Ryder should spend most of the game in the goal square, can kick the most in a losing side. Hille @ $17 can also end up in the forward line and is capable of kicking a bag too.Comment -
Wouldn't go near Ryder at $9, he's been terrible when Hille and Bellchambers have been playing with him.Comment -
Yeah I think I might leave the props alone and leave it at that for the evening. I'm too tired to think, probably will be asleep before half time.
Best of luck everybody
Comment -
Richmond ML @ $2.11
Melbourne by 27
Richmond been a bit more consistent aside dropping the game in Darwin to Port.
Gold Coast vs Western Bulldogs under 200.5 @ $1.88
Total hits 198
Possible showers on the Gold Coast today, total score was well under 200 at 173 in the round 3 encounter at Etihad with Hall kicking 5 and under 200 last week against Hawks. Think Suns have settled to the point of not getting blown out by huge amounts, especially by lesser sides without a strong consistent forward line. Hall back in but Bulldogs averaging 12 goals a game, Suns 10. Total should be around 170 at most.
God that under was damn close, fortunately Dogs decided to wax the ball the last few minutes and the umpire didn't pay that mark in front of Gold Coast goal right before the siren.
$7 returns $9.40
Joined up with bet365 on Gee's recommendation from his thread, cashed in $25 hopefully I can rollover the 100% bonus, balance is $249 ($274 with bonus) over 4 books now.
Not bothering with NRL today.
____________________________
Saturday Evening's AFL games
I'm going against the tide tonight and with my initial pick of Pies 1-39, fading Collingwood off the bye with their players back from international travel, drug testing and twitter shenanigans and going with the Swans to win comfortably at home. They should hustle the Pies in the 1Q at least. I hope
Sydney Quarter Time Leader @ $3.40
Pies up by 8 at 1Q... Swans should be in front, damn I f'en hate Collingwood.
Sydney -24.5 @ $19
Sydney ML @ 6.58
Collingwood by 6
Multi @ 12.77
Fremantle -32.5 @ 1.91
Sydney ML @ 6.58
I really f'en hate Collingwood now.
Fremantle -34.5 @ $2.10
Freo by 23, pricks.
$9 loss.
Comment -
AFL
Geelong -48.5 @ $2.10
$2 return $4.20
Carlton 1-39 @ $2.20
Forgot to finalise single bet, could be a or a good thing.
North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.25
North by 45. 1 goal too many, pricks.
3 leg multi @ $10.40
- $1
Live 4Q at 12 min mark
Eagles -25.5 @ 1.85
$3 return $5.55
NRL
Melbourne Storm 1-12 @ $3.35
Storm win 16-8 Nice start for the day.
$10 returns $16.45Comment -
i had a tough day as well. collingwood and fremantle losses hard to swallow, plus my biggest bet was WB -33.5 who got up by 50 then stopped.
youll get it back you are making solid bets.Comment -
Cheers and bad luck mate, hopefully we turn it around today.
I got too cute last night, should have stuck with my pick from doing my homework or at least taken the Swans +30.5 instead of the -24.5 at $19, to at least cover the outlays on ML and 1Q leader. Knowing Swans are always in close ones with better sides especially, that was far too optimistic and kinda dumb. I was just hoping on a Pies collapse like against Adelaide early and that Swans wouldn't let em back in it. We all love to see Collingwood lose big Sportsbet had the TT's for Swans skewed last night. The 1Q TT was like -16.5 and fulltime TT -67.5 or so. I thought they looked pretty soft and instead go with the longshots. Every loss/badweek is a learning experience I guess.
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collingwood could have been up by about 100 if they kicked straight. they were the right side IMO.Comment -
Does Adelaide even know there is a game going on?Comment -
Fortunately not Greekster, hopefully Geelong don't let off.Comment -
Lost about $11 on UFC Live today, backing Barry and Morecraft SU who both got KO'd and a few multi's, ruined by Story losing to Brenneman coming in on a days notice
I would guess there are a lot of people who got stung on that thinking Story was lock of the century.
Already burnt around 5% today, balance is $236/$261.
Monday night NRL.
Leaning Manly in a close one, 1-12 and total over. Clear and moderately windy evening in Sydney.
It's in Woolongong though, Manly had two big losses there late last year although Manly are much better this year.
I've been thinking of $50 on Manly SU to rollover the bet365 bonus in one go.
Which leads me to think I should probably take Dragons with my usual outlay.
This could be the end of my monday night NRL run, sticking with Manly and the over. Not going to do anything silly, might play Dragons/under live if it isn't going to plan to at least break even for tonight.
Manly 1-12 @ $3.85
Manly and over 34.5 @ $4.25
The total has risen to 35.5 on sportsbet, with the over paying $2.05, under $1.75.
But dropped half a point to 34 on sportingbet.
Comment -
Western Bulldogs ML @ $2.15
$5 to return $10.75 - Bulldogs by 64
Hopefully Melbourne's Etihad curse continues.
Brisbane Broncos ML @ $2.37
$2.18 to return $5.18 - Bronco's win 16-12
Multi @ $5.10
.26 to return $1.32
$7.44 returns $17.25
Going against flow on league tonight, seems everyone is on the Eels. I think the depleted Broncos will be too good for the Eels who are without Hayne and Mannah. Bronco's to bounce back from last weeks game in Perth against Souths and wont let what happened in Rd 14 happen again. Not extremely confident so just a $2 play and rounding off my change for the multi.
From the NRL.com match centre
13 leg SU of my tips for this round of AFL/NRL - $.1 to return $29.82The last time the baby Broncos came out to play was in Round 14 against Canberra in Brisbane. The side blasted out to a 24-0 lead and had the match seemingly in the bag with 20 minutes to go but inexperience allowed the Raiders to storm back. History shows the Green Machine went on a 10-minute rampage to tie the match up at 24-all before losing to a field goal in golden point.
AFL
Western Bulldogs
Carlton
Fremantle
Geelong
Sydney
Brisbane Lions
Collingwood
North Melbourne
NRL
Brisbane Broncos
Canterbury Bulldogs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
St George Dragons
Canberra Raiders
Best of luck everybody
Comment -
Not sure I'll be around today, been up watching the tennis and doing my homework on this afternoons games, laid my bets and posting my plays now in case I don't have time this arvo and miss closing, from now on will be attempting to cap the game and team totals for each game and playing them multi'd with ML's just for min stakes/rounding off on bet365. I swept last night and passed up a $17 4 legger due to being sensible
Totals I've posted were up on bet365 around 1am.
AFL
Carlton 1-39 $2 @ $2.25
Total - Over 185.5
Carlton to bounce back after getting mugged by the Eagles, gonna be a bit windy at the G but I think this will still be a high scoring game. Carlton by 20 or so: 120-100.
Carlton by 103 - 184-81
Fremantle 1-39 $2 @ $2.60
Total - Under 182.5
Few showers in Perth, Suns have been putting in some decent performances and have shown they can travel to WA ok. Fremantle by about 25 points: 90-65
Fremantle by 50 - 112-62
Multi $.26 @ 5.12
Fremantle ML + Under 182.5/Carlton ML + Over 185.5
Geelong -43.5 $6 @ 1.92
Total Over 199.5
Bombers by 4 - 115-111
Sydney -15.5 & over 165.5 - Sydney to cover -15.5 @ $1.90 is very soft imo. Should be a big win with Sydney kicking near on the total themselves.
Sydney -15.5 $5 @ $1.92
Total Over 143.5
Crows by 7 - 57-50
Geelong ML + Over 196.5/Sydney ML + Over 143.5 $.29 @ $5.74
Canterbury Bulldogs -3.5 - but iffy on the Bulldogs, not sure if they're truly back yet. May pass on this and hope they win SU for my 13 legger to stay alive.
Penrith win 20-6. Glad I stayed away. 13 legger is dead
$14 loss, can't believe only winning bet was a $5.12 multi and the return was insignificant, last nights work undone
Should have played totals instead.Comment -
like em all.
probably play carton on the line instead though as i think they might win bigComment -
where did you get the combo bets at? tab nsw is where i usually see them but they dont have them up yet.Comment -
Cheers, yeah I'm a little worried Carlton could blow em out or even be upset by the Tiges but that's why it's a punt.
bet365, they allow you to multi ml's/lines and totals on all sports (not while live in play) at much better odds than sportingbet offer on their winner/line & total doubles plus they have the sweet calculator that adds all multiples with an outlay field for each separate one.
Got Geelong 43.5 on sportsbet @ 1.92 while 44.5 was $1.90 on bet365. Aside that from what I've noticed nearly all of the AFL/NRL ML's and most of the lines are better bang for your buck on bet365 compared to sportsbet/sportingbet.Comment
