Alt75's AFL & NRL Thread

[binomial]

thanks.

they don't let you bet bery much usually.

IAS are betting $2 lines this weekend if you have an account.

[Alt75]

Yeah I understand bet365 is a rec only book, by the time my bankroll is big enough for 5-10% bet to be over a limit. I'll either be on Pinny or too old and senile to bet online.

Not on IAS, saw mention of it on the board. Hope you had a better day than I did!
Let's go Swans and Cats to put me back in front for the day.

[Brian891]

alt i am really starting to wonder bout my ability to jinx footy. laid off carlton, north melbourne last week, carlton against power a few weeks ago, and played sydney against adelaide for shits and giggles after a good day. lost $24 bucks no big deal. but, come on. how do i pick the one wrong match towager on?

[Alt75]

haha it's not you You been smoking a bowl and thinking the Illuminati monitor your sportsbetting and have the results go the opposite way? I've pondered that

Swans losing to Crows is just about as surprising as Cats losing to the Bombers imo, weekend for the underdogs in AFL/NRL this weekend. Out of 8 games so far 6 dogs have won with Essendon at $7 and Crows near on $3, not to mention Carlton -99.5 would have been around $80. It's why I rarely even play $5-$10 on SU bets on faves unless are over 1.80 or so, preferably pick out +ev dogs and even then I'd have to be really confident like the Etihad angle against the Demons. Like with MMA when you think one thing is bound to happen and the lets put some $$$ on lightbulb blinks, the opposite usually does. I wouldn't be surprised to see Port beat my Lions and Hawks beat Pies today.

Hope you make that $24 back off UFC tonight. I've got a few big parlays riding and Wlad by KO/TKO

Heart says Wanderlei, head/pessimism says Leben so I took both, these method of victory multi's are backed up with SU multi's in case I sweep SU so I at least recover my hail mary shots.

Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber - Dominick Cruz on Points | MULTI Odds: 808.38 - $1 Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Chris Leben v Wanderlei Silva - Wanderlei Silva by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Ryan Bader v Tito Ortiz - Ryan Bader by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Carlos Condit v Dong Hyun Kim - Dong Hyun Kim on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman - Dennis Siver on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller - Melvin Guillard by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - Boxing Matches - Matchup
Wladimir Klitschko V David Haye - Wladimir Klitschko KO/TKO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)


Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber - Dominick Cruz on Points | MULTI Odds: 1587.89 - $1 Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Chris Leben v Wanderlei Silva - Chris Leben by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Ryan Bader v Tito Ortiz - Ryan Bader by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Carlos Condit v Dong Hyun Kim - Dong Hyun Kim on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman - Dennis Siver on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller - Melvin Guillard by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - Boxing Matches - Matchup
Wladimir Klitschko V David Haye - Wladimir Klitschko KO/TKO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)

This is my idea of a "shits and giggles" lets hope the unexpected happens bet
Subs are the least likely out of most of these matchups, ko counts as tko/refs stoppage too so not out of the realm of possibility. Gotta get a UFC card with lots of finishes sooner or later.

Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber - Dominick Cruz by KO | MULTI Odds: 65025.00 - $1 Win - Method of Victory (Pending)
Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Chris Leben v Wanderlei Silva - Chris Leben by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)
Multi - UFC - UFC 132
George Sotiropoulos v Rafael Dos Anjos - George Sotiropoulos by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)
Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman - Dennis Siver by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)
Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Carlos Condit v Dong Hyun Kim - Dong Hyun Kim by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)
Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Ryan Bader v Tito Ortiz - Ryan Bader by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)

******* hell Klit/Haye goes the distance and Sot gets KO'd first round.

--
Re-laid my UFC 132 mov multi's thanks to that big Klit sausage jabbing his way to a decision.

Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber - Dominick Cruz on Points | MULTI Odds: 687.40 - $1 Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Chris Leben v Wanderlei Silva - Chris Leben by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Ryan Bader v Tito Ortiz - Ryan Bader by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Carlos Condit v Dong Hyun Kim - Dong Hyun Kim on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman - Dennis Siver on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller - Melvin Guillard by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)

Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Melvin Guillard v Shane Roller - Melvin Guillard by KO | MULTI Odds: 384.94 - $1 Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dennis Siver v Matt Wiman - Dennis Siver on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Carlos Condit v Dong Hyun Kim - Dong Hyun Kim on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Ryan Bader v Tito Ortiz - Ryan Bader by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Chris Leben v Wanderlei Silva - Wanderlei Silva by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 132
Dominick Cruz v Urijah Faber - Dominick Cruz on Points - Win - Method of Victory (Pending)

AFL

$2 @ $2.25
Ryan Bader $1.20
Brisbane Lions ML $1.40
Collingwood ML $1.33

Brisbane Lions -17.5 $5 @ $1.95
Brisbane Lions -17.5 & Under 192.5 $1 @ $3.64

[Lookingtostart]

haha it's not you You been smoking a bowl and thinking the Illuminati monitor your sportsbetting and have the results go the opposite way? I've pondered that

It's the illuminati shifting realities on us, where my picks actually won but in a timeline which we just left.

[Alt75]

******* tito, condit and lions, ******* oyster of a weekend

about $15 down for the day, i also had cruz, leben, pies, lions and dragons SU in $11 multi ******* dragons
was expecting to log in and have that win soften the blow...

[Alt75]

Won a few bucks back off Djoko winning SU

Lets see if I can get back on track with monday night NRL.

Canberra 1-12 $3.50 @ $3.50
Canberra & Under 37.5 @ $3.40

Canberra win 38-12

[Alt75]

I'm going to need a big win tonight, for a lawyer, Alt's gonna kill a fool... bloody Body Corporate sent some buttmunch tradey around to clean the gutters and roofs, not only have I had a ******* generator going all afternoon outside my window, 2 rooms are now leaking from where this dumbass has probably broken tiles.

Hopefully my luck will change for the evening!

Titanbet's slip allowed this multi so I'm gonna see if I can get away with getting the HT/FT double a $1.30 higher

Queensland to win series $7 @ $1.62

Queensland to win series $1.62 & Queensland HT/FT $2.10: $3 @ $3.40

Queensland and Under $.4 @ $2.88

$10.40 to return about $22

[binomial]

fackin trades people.

NSW said they only wanted to win one game, mission accomplished no need to show up.

GL.

[Alt75]

binominal: How'd you do on SOO?

Balance is at $241/266. Need to rollover this bet365 bonus, not a good week on AFL to chance 10/20% on a ML, has to be over $1.50. League is iffy post Origin too and no MMA for almost a month.

AFL

West Coast Eagles $2 @ $2.20

NRL
Wests Tigers -1.5 $4 @ $1.91

Sportingbet Happy Hour
Wests HT/FT Double $2 @ $3 Should have guessed it was a trap. Damn Eels.


Multi @ $33.24 $.33 return $10.96

Going with my initial lean of Eagles and Over. I could be wrong on both but meh let's hope I'm right on all 6.

West Coast Eagles ML @ $2.20
West Coast Eagles vs Geelong Over 187.5 $1.90
Total hits 184

Wests Tigers ML $1.72
Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels Under 38.5 $1.90
Eels win 22-6

New Zealand Warriors ML $1.36
New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans Under 38.5 $1.90
Warriors win 22-6

$7.44 returns $4.40
Should have had more faith in Eagles SU and Warriors/Under.

[binomial]

Well with a bit of luck.

Had QLD 1-12 $2.95 which got their with late try to NSW and QLD combined with over over $2.70.

Opposite on both AFL picks played Geelong 1-39 and the under.

Played GC +10 asking for trouble and agree with the under.

leaning paramatta and under but haven't played anything yet.

[Alt75]

Nice stuff, I was looking at the Queensland 1-12 but after fudging up with Canberra I thought I'd play it safe and as I was able to get the ht/ft at $3.40 I didn't wanna push my luck and wanted a fairly sure thing to double the $10 I was down to on titanbet.

I figure most people will be on Cats tonight, I just think a few things are in favour of the Eagles and statistically Cats are more likely to drop another than go 15-1, although that's not really a solid trend own it's own, how teams match up and play on the day is what determines the outcome, it's rare two teams have only dropped a game for a season this far in. I feel the Cats might/are due to have another loss before getting back on track before the finals. They've got an easy run after this, albeit with a successive road trip to Brisbane next week, if they are to drop another one Eagles are the best chance. With only $2 I'm not that confident, I really want to start finding ML's that really appeal to me to put 10% on to start making real gains. Tonight I'm just going with my tip on gut instinct - coin flip and while I have no bias for or against either side I guess I'd like to see Eagles win. Perhaps cause Geelong screwed me last week

[binomial]

i agree not much in it. my feeling is both are a bit overrated. take out the carlton game and WC's results are nothing to get too excited about.

if you look at the matchups as named Geelong have the better of the clear majority of them for mine. plus they have won handily last two times playing WC over there so wont fear playing there. plus i think they have the motivation edge of a loss, whereas WC off their best win in years arguably probably pretty content with themselves. Lynch out of some significance IMO also, while they can cover him he has been playing well.

[Alt75]

From looking at the Essendon Geelong matchups, would have thought the scoreline would have resembled the Blues v Tigers or one of the Suns hidings, in favour of Cats.

I don't think Eagles will be content and complacent not having beaten Cats in 5/6 years, they have a chance to possibly get a top 4 berth off this win and show they can compete with the top sides as they did Carlton. In saying that I'm thinking of hedging Cats SU or Eagles +29.5 or so into some of the short priced faves over the weekend.

Is anyone a member here?
Just signed up, was free they don't seem to be a tout service and require any payment/subscription, recommend Pinnacle as the best book.

http://www.sportspunter.com/

Sports Punter is not just an online betting odds comparison service. We also offer statistics and computer predictions to help you decide who to bet on.

[Alt75]

MLB

Atlanta Braves ML @ $2.55
Atlanta Braves ML & Under 7 @ $4.33

Washington Nationals ML @ $1.76
Washington Nationals & Over 8 @ $3.18

4 folds @ $14.13


AFL

Hawthorn vs Brisbane

Very cold windy day in Launceston, 35-50km/h winds. 30% chance of rain. Brisbane have trouble playing & scoring there. Last 2 Hawks v Lions totals at Aurora have been 161 - 141. Think it falls in this range or lower if it's wet as well as windy as hell.

Hawks ML/Under 180.5 $2 @ $2.03 - return $4.03

Under 180.5 $5 @ $1.83 - return $9.15

Pretty sure the total will open considerably lower on Aus books this morning due to the forecast for Launceston so I've jumped on it early on bet365.

Thinking Brisbane keep it close, Buddy is definitely in but I'm feeling an upset could be on the cards, with Hawks injuries. I'm sure the under will hit, but hedging the ML/Total double. In case my Lions get up and screw me, worth a dollar at over $7

Brisbane Lions ML $1 @ $7.67

Multi $2.49 @ $5.33 return $13.27
Brisbane +41.5 @ $1.74 half a ******* point
Essendon -8.5 @ $1.74
Sydney -33.5 @ $1.76

[kdoub]

Nice call Alt. Glad I jumped on your insight and book the u180.5, its down to 165.5 on bet365 now. Thanks for posting!!

[Alt75]

You're welcome and cheers for the points

Hopefully this early edge pays off. Wish I had have gone in a bit larger on it myself, would have been a good 10% play with such considerable adjustment and movement on the total.

[binomial]

nice call on geelong last night, very unlucky to not get the over.

i use sportspunter for odds comparison all the time. i used to subscribe to get more books but haven't for a while.

[Alt75]

I can't believe, half a facking point on that multi, Brown misses a goal from the square in 4Q, no matter what side I take Lions always find a way to **** me over.

nice call on geelong last night, very unlucky to not get the over.

i use sportspunter for odds comparison all the time. i used to subscribe to get more books but haven't for a while.

Cheers, luck is rarely on my side

Ah I noticed on the footer there is a subscription service, damn it's like $250 a year.

Are there any sites that compare odds for AFL/NRL with Aus and overseas book that are free?
That's not worth $250 a year, well I guess it's handy for pro's betting heavily daily and $250 is nothing to pro's but for christs sake all you have to do is flick between a few browser tabs compare the Aus books, bet365 & pinny.

________________________________________
Sundays bets

MLB

TB Rays ML @ $2.02

________________________________________

AFL

Collingwood ML $1.07 & Under 187.5 $1.90 @ $2.04
Collingwood 147-30

Carlton ML $1.33 & Over 205.5 $1.90 @ $2.54
Carlton -22.5 @ 1.90

________________________________________

NRL

Manly & Under 40.5 @ $2.30

Penrith & Under 38.5 @ $3.05
Roosters 34-26

________________________________________

Multi of all my leans for today.

Stake: 0.25 Odds: 559.16 Return: 139.54
Carlton -22.5 & Over 189.5
Collingwood -45.5 & Under 182.5
St Kilda -21.5 & Under 168.5
Manly Sea Eagles -10.0 & Under 40.5
Penrith Panthers -2.0 & Under 38.5

ugh I just realised I clicked the wrong handicaps for the league games, I clicked the Handicap with tie lines so no pushes on Eagles/Panthers

[Alt75]

Can't decide on the margin so going with my original lean on Newcastle and the over. Sportingbet are juicing the over and it's raised to 39.5. Hopefully Knights win a high scoring game.

Newcastle Knights & Over 38.5 @ 2.24
NQ win 22-12

BOL to those on the margin/points.

[Alt75]

Saturdays bets

MLB

Atlanta Braves $1.59/Detroit Tigers $1.52 @ $2.42
Last time I ever follow a "Tigers are locks" pick from a Tigers fan, Michiganian cockfaggot.

____________________________

MMA
Shark Fights 17
Matt Horwich @ $3.00
Rosholt wins by decision

____________________________

AFL

Richmond vs Suns Under 191.5 @ $1.90
Richmond ML/Under @ $2.18 lol Richmond you shit cunts

Carlton vs Collingwood Under 178.5 @ $1.90
Collingwood ML/Under @ $2.22

Melbourne vs Port Adelaide Under 193.5
Melbourne ML/Under @ $2.38
Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.25

West Coast Eagles ML @ $2.10

____________________________

NRL

Sydney Roosters ML @ $2.10
Rabbitohs 21-20

North Queensland ML @ $2.25
____________________________

AFL/NRL multi .7 @ $20.41 - $13.59

North Queensland ML
Sydney Roosters ML
Collingwood ML/Under 178.5
Richmond ML/Under 191.5

Just in case either/both dogs get up and ruin my total doubles.
Carlton ML .25 @ $4.90
Gold Coast ML .15 @ $5.92
Double @ 29.00 .6 return $19.92

[binomial]

not playing the night games in AFL or haven't looked at them?

liking west coast - extra 2 days rest and their forward line versus sk defence looks promising.

i doubt port will try in the heat and melbourne like to spank the weak sides so like melbourne at the line.

GL

[Alt75]

Yeah of course I am haven't got that far ahead

Working out what to play for the days games as far as lines/margins and making sure each bet is laid as a single leg, aside the short priced ML's doubled with a total.

Been liking West Coast all week, agree with the extra rest factor and matching up well with Saints in midfield/forward.
I was thinking Port might have an edge having played in Darwin and beating Richmond there. Can never tell when Port are going to show up though.

[Lookingtostart]

@ $4.00 I think Port might be value, but I won't be surprised if they get thrashed either. Half a unit for a bit of a hail-mary for me.

[Brian891]

alt confidence level in melbourne, this time before i pack the bowl? i like west coast to win and want to take them +5, but that match could go either way. both teams hot right now.

[Alt75]

It's gonna be hot in Darwin where this game is being played, 32'c/89'f today think of AFL being played in like the deep south. Louisiana or so.

I'm confident Melbourne will win but covering in hot/humid conditions could be tricky, Port haven't been too bad past weeks and beat Richmond in Darwin in a shock upset earlier in the season. The Under 193.5 is the play on that IMO but I'm more confident on Eagles, I'll probably risk $10 on the Eagles ML, or evens + line. Eagles should kill em in the midfield/forward line.

[Brian891]

thanks as always!

[Alt75]

Sorry Brian

[Alt75]

AFL

Sydney 1-39 @ $2.15
Fremantle by 11

Geelong -39.5 @ 1.75
Geelong by 29

Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.20
North by 31

Sydney 1-39/Geelong -39.5/Western Bulldogs ML @ $5.08


NRL
Melbourne Storm -3.5 @ $1.90

Melbourne Storm ML/Manly ML @ $2.43

[donkson]

Like the dogs 1-39 pick, very good odds I would have thought, I can't see North letting themselves get smashed again.

[Alt75]

Yeah that was my thinking on that too.

Swans aren't looking too good though, Dawned on I should be taking the underdogs +39.5 instead of faves 1-39, not as good value but at least it gives me an out in case of an upset.

[texhooper]

what is the likelihood that geelong can pile it up to get you your cover? this is my first time watching an aussie rules game, out of boredom and curiosity both, and it's pretty damn exciting.

it appears as though geelong is taking control, but i don't know the likelihood of outscoring a team by 40 in a half after a close first half.

[Alt75]

Absolutely no chance, I barrack for the Lions they always screw me, betting for or against.

[donkson]

lol looked possible there for a second

[texhooper]

yeah, they got it to 31 twice. this game fit the description most have of the nba, which is "just watch the 4th quarter". i guess pro sports are crazy like that all over the globe. i was thinking about taking the cats just from reading stuff about the game online. i would have been pretty mad if i did, because they could have destroyed the lions from what i saw, they just chose to pace themselves until the end.