Great theory on NRL/AFL PYOL Alt, but I've been running three S15's/NRL/AFL pyol's games now n again for a while @1.25 (so avg is that I'm buying 11pts, to give me 1.95 but even with that i'm still having trouble nailing the 3 with these upsets occuring.. bottom line is multis can mean trouble.. stormers +17.5/canb +16.5/carlton +43.5
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Comment -
Where do you get carlton +43?Comment -
I think just going to have to be very selective with the multi legs, upsets happen. The less lines the better, the shortest lines that are likely to hit to reach evens. Don't be greedy, contain the inner action junkie and don't play every game. AFL is probably the best for it as the upsets aren't occurring too much. Watch me change that...
I don't follow S15 so can't comment on that. NRL has been a bit iffy. Storm and Bulldogs you can't rely on to turn up against bottom sides, using St George regularly would be safer. There's some short priced faves in MMA fights that are about as close to the term lock you can get. NBA games go down to the wire too often, can be affected too much by the reffing, it essentially becomes a coin flip for who gets the win in the last few mins. From my observations this year a $1.40 odd ML or + spread on AFL faves are generally hitting a lot more than a $1.40 ML fave in NBA.
As I said when I laid the multi this morning it's bound to fail, when ever I click multi bet drums of doom should ring in my head instead of cash registers cha-chinging. 1 from 3 legs on the first day. Bit unlucky with Mavs losing on home court and Bulldogs, I probably should have stayed away from with Canberra playing at home and coming off a big win. Hindsight is a sonova bitch.
ultrasouth: he's using pick your own line, centrebet and sportsbet offer it.Comment -
St Kilda vs Melbourne
Few key omissions for each side it seems St Kilda are going in without a designated ruckman, listing McEvoy as an emergency and naming defender Jason Blake in the ruck. Stefan Martin named in the ruck for Melbourne again. Melbourne still without Trengrove and Jamar though. Would think this favours St Kilda in the midfield and around the ground as they have enough tall players at either end of the ground to handle ruck duties, as well as contain Melbournes forward line. Martin isn't going to be able to ruck the whole game. Despite getting 21 hitouts Melbourne still lost by 41 to North last week. While I don't rate the Saints as a final side they haven't been too bad against better competition I don't think Melbourne will be able pressure them enough.
St Kilda to cover and get their second win of the year. Melbourne with an average loss margin of 46.70. St Kilda with their only win by Brisbane by 13. The sterile conditions at Etihad should favour the Saints.
___________________
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide
Freo without Van Berlo and McPhee
Palmer and Ballantyne return.
Pittard back for Port
Schulz still out
Freo have beaten Adelaide at AAMI this year, beat Port at home twice comprehensively the past 2 seasons and are 1-1 with Port Adelaide at AAMI in 08/09
Port have been awful, 2nd worst tackling side in the comp, above Adelaide, lowest percentage, only Gold Coast have conceded more for the season.
Port to put in a decent showing at home but Freo to dominate the midfield and win by a few goals.
________________
Saturday's bets.
St Kilda -20.5 @ $2.10
Freo 1-39 @ $2.25
$4.50
St Kilda -19.5 @ $2.00
Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.25
Multi @ $2.02
St Kilda -2.5 @ $1.43
Fremantle +4.5 @ $1.41
Evening Games
Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.50
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.35
Multi @ $5.88
Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.50
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.35
NRL
Wests 1-12 @ $3.10
$2.84
Wests -1.5 @ 1.42
Essendon +1.5 @ $1.42
Brisbane Lions +14.5 @ $1.41
Probably won't get to catch any of the games today, best of luck to everybody.
Hopefully I check in tonight and I'm 9 from 9
Comment -
Centrebet Multi @1.25 - St Kilda +11.5/Freo +17.5/Penrith +19.5 @ 2.01Comment -
Best of luck with that Bazz. I'm on Wests to win no more than 10-16, that NRL leg spread should be safe.Comment -
Sundays bets
Just playing $2 per straight bet and multi's below odds of $10. $1 for multi's over $10. Will back my tipping and keep wagering 10% of balance per day for each round of footy and mma cards, if it goes terribly awry and my balance falls below $100 I'll revise things and stop playing every game per round. I will beat the bookies one way or another
AFL
Collingwood vs Adelaide @ Etihad
No changes for Adelaide
Maxwell and Beams back for Pies.
What can I say one of the worst teams this year playing the 2nd side/reigning premiers side away interstate. Adelaide are $11 underdogs for a reason, this could get ugly.
Collingwood to bounce back big after loss to Geelong
Collingwood -53.5 @ $2.10
Collingwood by 43
____
Sydney vs Hawthorn @ SCG
Malceski back for Swans
Max Bailey, Cyril Rioli, Ryan Schoenmakers in for Hawks
Cloudy, foggy 10% chance of rain for Sydney according to BOM.
Hawthorn haven't won at the SCG since 2003, 2 wins from the past 12 games away against the Swans. Hawks Full-back Stephen Gilham and ruckman David Hale out. Sydney are usually not one to blow teams out but they have some big wins over the Hawks at home the past few years.
Sydney -7.5 @ $2.10
Sydney -24.5 @ $3.30
Hawthorn by 46
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West Cost vs Western Bulldogs @ Patersons Stadium
Forecast for Perth, partly cloudy light to moderate winds.
Embley and Kerr back for Eagles
Higgins, Williams and Wood in for Dogs. Hall listed as an emergency. West Coast's midfield too strong and should have the advantage all around the game, they are a better side overall with the added comfort of playing at home, even though Bulldogs have a decent record at the ground West Coast are in form and playing good footy and to get the win.
West Coast
-8.5 @ $2.10
West Coast by 123
$8 to return $19.20
Outlay $8 return $4.20
________________________
NRL
NZ Warriors vs Rabbitohs
Warriors to win at home. Rabbitohs have a decent record in NZ, while I'll never bet on Souths again I don't think they'll be blown out.
New Zealand 1-12 @ $3.15
Warriors by 6
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Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
Newcastle to continue the Roosters horror season.
Newcastle ML @ $2.02
Roosters win by 2
$4 to return $10.34
Outlay $4 return $6.30
________________________
Bellator MMA
Sam Alvey vs Karl Amoussou
Debut fights for both guys in Bellator, haven't seen much of Alvey but Amoussou has heaps of potential to be a big name in the states.
Amoussou tko
Alvey wins split decision.
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Daniel Straus vs Patricio Freire
As much as I love the Freire brothers I think their one weakness that will be constantly exposed is being on their back against strong wrestlers with sufficient submission defense. Straus fits this bill perfectly. Daniel Straus to control his way to to a decision maybe a ref's stoppage tko.
Patricio wins by split decision.
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Christian Mpumbu vs Richard Hale
Hale was somewhat lucky against DJ Linderman, with the way Hale keeps his chin up Mpumbu will likely capitalise on that and put him to sleep.
Mpumbu by ko/tko
Mpumbu 3rd round KO
Daniel Straus $2.10
$5.50
Mpumbu $1.77
Daniel Straus $2.10
Amoussou $1.48
$4 to return $15.20
________________________
Multi's
$24
Collingwood -53.5 @ $2.10
West Coast -4.5 @ $1.92
Sydney -3.5 @ $1.92
Warriors -3.5 @ $1.55
Newcastle ML @ $2.00
$280.03
Mpumbu $1.77
Daniel Straus $2.10
Amoussou $1.48
Collingwood -53.5 @ $2.00
West Coast -8.5 @ $2.00
Sydney -6.5 @ $2.00
NZ Warriors 1-12 @ $3.15
Newcastle ML @ $2.00
$2 to return $304.03
Outlay $2 return $0
Going up country Vic today, won't get to see the fights live, yet again. Hopefully be back in time for Eagles and Doggies.
Best of luck chaps
Pretty poor day
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im on amoussou as well. a lil nervous because every pundit and prediction has him winning, but best of luck to us both!Comment -
GL. Like your card.Comment -
Ah I never knew you were into MMA Brian and Bellator too eh, good stuff
Most supposed MMA fans only know of the UFC.
Surely you guys had a better weekend with punting than I did.
Hopefully my good run with Monday night NRL continues and I can break even or a little over for the weekend.
Mondays bets
NBA
Chicago Bulls -3 @ $2.00
NRL
Fine, yet windy evening for Sydney, 20% chance of rain.
No idea about a total but I think Sharks get done by over 10 easily.
Parramatta First Half -5.5 @ $2.00
Parramatta -9.5 @ $2.10
Sportsbet had -8.5 up for the $2.10 line, in the time it took to click and place bet it raised a point.
Comment -
Parramatta wins 40-6 | 22-0 HalftimeOriginally posted by Alt75Parramatta First Half -5.5 @ $2.00
Parramatta -9.5 @ $2.10
Tuesdays bets
OKC -3.5 & Over 195.5 @ $3.35
Another collapse by the Thunder, Mavs win 112 - 105 in OTComment -
Wednesday's bets
Miami -5.5 & Over 179.5 @ 3.70
Finally some luck with NBA - Miami win 101 - 93 in OT
State of Origin
Queensland 1-12 @ $3.10
Queensland & Under 36.5 @ $2.75
Billy Slater first try scorer and Queensland 1-12 @ $27
$7 returns $19.10 for the day.Comment -
Thursday's bets
NBA
Dallas -6.5 & Over 198.5 @ 3.50
Mavs by 4 100-96Comment -
Cashed in $30 on Titanbet/Poker to play some hobostakes poker with a mate and for their live betting, also able to play under $1 on hedging main plays, long shots and my more optimistic parlays. Balance across 3 books is now $193.
Friday's bets
NBA
Think Miami will wrap up the eastern conference tonight.
Miami +3 @ $1.99
Miami 1-10 @ $3.20
__________________________________Carlton
AFL Round 10 picks
Sydney
Fremantle
Geelong
Richmond
Brisbane
West Coast
Hawthorn
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Carlton 1-39 @ $2.30
Carlton vs Melbourne Under 185.5 @ $1.88
__________________________________
NRL Round 12 picks
Canterbury
Manly
Parramatta
Nth Qld
Melbourne
St George
Penrith
________
Manly -10.5 @ $2.50
Manly win 34-10
Canterbury 1-12 @ $3.15
__________________________________
Multi's
$.25 on 7 AFL picks SU & Geelong -64.5 @ $52.99
$1 @ $114.69
Gold Coast v Geelong - Geelong | Pick Your Own Line (-99.5) (Pending) 5.60
Adelaide v Brisbane - Brisbane Lions - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 4.00
Collingwood v West Coast - West Coast - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 5.12
$1 @ $18.11
Carlton 1-39 @ $2.30
Manly -10.5 @ $2.50
Canterbury 1-12 @ $3.15Comment -
good luck with your betsComment -
Saturday's betsCarlton 1-39 @ $2.30
Carlton vs Melbourne Under 185.5 @ $1.88
Manly -10.5 @ $2.50
Manly win 34-10
Canterbury 1-12 @ $3.15
Canterbury win 28-6
$1 @ $18.11
Carlton 1-39 @ $2.30
Manly -10.5 @ $2.50
Canterbury 1-12 @ $3.15
Outlay $17 return $23.80
Sydney -5.5 @ $2.00
Sydney by 1
Fremantle -11.5 @ $2.00
St Kilda by 46
Geelong -67.5 @ $2.10
Geelong -99.5 @ $5.60
Cats by 66
Richmond -31.5 @ $2.00
NRL
North Queensland -7 @ $2.00
Multi $1 @ $8.00
Geelong -67.5 @ $2.00
Richmond -31.5 @ $2.00
North Queensland -7 @ $2.00
******* crap dayComment -
Looks like money still coming in for nth melbComment -
Yeah I read about that, still going with my initial pick, Swans should be good for a goal, too hangover to put much thought into my bets today.
Good luck chaps.Comment -
Sunday's bets
UFC 130
Stann Wins Inside The Distance @ 2.50
Alves Wins Inside The Distance @ 3.00
Story wins unanimous decision
Struve Wins Inside The Distance @ 3.00
Brown wins by KO
Roy Nelson Inside The Distance @ $3.25
Roy Nelson by Submission @ $13.00
Frank Mir wins a boring decision.
Rampage Inside the Distance @ $2.50
Rampage by decision
Ultimate Decision Assholes. What a waste of a Sunday watching another boring card.
Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Brian Stann v Jorge Santiago - Brian Stann | MULTI Odds: 2.27 - $2 Win - Head To Head (Pending) (WinningLeg) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Matt Hamill v Quinton Jackson - Quinton Jackson - Win - Head To Head (Pending)
Multi @ $8.13
Roy Nelson Inside the Distance
Rampage Inside the Distance
Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Kendall Grove v Tim Boetsch - Tim Boetsch | MULTI Odds: 31.21 - $1 Win - Head To Head (Pending) (WinningLeg) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Brian Stann v Jorge Santiago - Brian Stann - Win - Head To Head (Pending) (WinningLeg) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Rick Story v Thiago Alves - Thiago Alves - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Stefan Struve v Travis Browne - Stefan Struve - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Matt Hamill v Quinton Jackson - Quinton Jackson - Win - Head To Head (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Frank Mir v Roy Nelson - Roy Nelson - Win - Head To Head (Pending)
Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Matt Hamill v Quinton Jackson - Quinton Jackson by KO | MULTI Odds: 28.08 - $1 Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Rick Story v Thiago Alves - Thiago Alves by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) Multi - UFC - UFC 130
Brian Stann v Jorge Santiago - Brian Stann by KO - Win - Method of Victory (Pending) (WinningLeg) Multi -
Outlay $16 return $9.54
AFL
Brisbane Lions ML $3.85
Brisbane Lions +21.5 @ $2.00
Brisbane by 40
Multi $15.98
West Coast Eagles ML $4.15
Brisbane Lions ML $3.85
Hawthorn -24.5 @ $2.00
Hawks by 29
Was preoccupied and missed the close of betting on Storm Sharks and Pies Eagles games. Probably for the best. Was on Storm/Eagles to cover
NRL
St George -6.5 & Under 36.5 @ 3.35
St George 24-18
Outlay $9 return 15.70
UFC/ARL/NRL Total Outlay $25 return $25.24
French Open Multi $1 @ $8.00
Vera Zvonareva @ 1.37
Stanislas Wawrinka vs Roger Federer Under 33.5 @ 1.87
Jelena Jankovic @ 1.67
Richard Gasquet vs Novak Djokovic - Under 31.5 @ 1.87Comment -
Too lazy for a write up tonight.
AFL
Under 187.5 $5 @ $1.88
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.15
Melbourne by 33
NRL
St George -11 @ $2.00
Eels & Dragons tie 14 apiece
Brisbane -5.5 & Under 37.5 @ $3.50
Brisbane 34-16
Laid the Dons 1-39 and the 2 NRL bets in a $7 patent.
$12 to return $50.92
$12 returns $9.40
ugh 1-4: crappy start to the round.
Best of luck everybody
Comment -
Saturday's bets
AFL
West Coast -66.5 @ $2.00
West Coast by 18.. sunburnt again.
Geelong -41.5 @ $2.00
Catters by 61
Collingwood -35.5 @ $2.00
Collingwood by 57
Sydney 1-39 @ $2.50
Swans by 65
_______________________
NRL
New Zealand Warriors -3 @ $2.00
Roosters win 13-6
Manly -4 @ $2.00
Manly win 38-4
Outlay $12 return $12
5 leg multi, 10 doubles, 10 trebles and 5 quads.
Sydney ML $1.91
Collingwood -30.5 $1.81
Manly ML $1.66
New Zealand Warriors ML $1.78
Penrith ML $2.15
$2 to return $21.86
$2 returns $3.87
WTA French Open Final
Francesca Schiavone & Over 22.5 @ $3.60
why do i bother with bloody tennisComment -
Wasn't around today, put a couple of multi's of my picks for AFL/NRL & the TUF finale on late last night while somewhat inebriated, with the intention to put my single bets on before I had to leave and didn't end up having time, funnily I accidentally clicked the Fremantle +33.5 line instead of the Hawks -27.5 in the 6 leg and then re-laid it with just the other 2 AFL lines. Nice to see the biggest one hit! Balance is $235 across 3 books now. Late night drunk multi-betting ftw
Tried Bazz's $1.25 line system too.
05-06-2011 04:04 80877881 Multi - AFL - Round 11 - Matches
Port Adelaide v Carlton - Carlton | MULTI Odds: 2.50 - $2 Win - Pick Your Own Line (-4.5) (WinningLeg) $2.00 1.27 Resulted $5.00 $3.00 80877881 Multi - AFL - Round 11 - Matches
Hawthorn v Fremantle - Hawthorn - Win - Pick Your Own Line (-5.5) (WinningLeg)
1.25
80877881 Multi - AFL - Round 11 - Matches
North Melbourne v Adelaide - North Melbourne - Win - Pick Your Own Line (+14.5) (WinningLeg)
1.26
80877881 Multi - NRL - Round 13 - Matches
Pick The Line - Melbourne Storm - Melbourne Storm - Win - Pick The Line (+5.5) (WinningLeg)
1.25
French Open Mens Final
Roger Federer & Over 39.5 @ $5.00
Going with the underdog Fed and the over, hoping for another upset.
Nadal and the under is now a lock
Comment -
Monday's bets
NBA
Dallas 1-10 @ $2.70
NRL
Wests -11.5 @ $2.10
Wests and Under 41.5 @ $2.40
Comment -
Nice work Alt, glad those 1.25 bets gave u the heads up !! Just saw footytab pick the margins is still alive, someone's sitting on a return of nearly 400k pending who they got 2nite, must have been a mystery pick surely no one could pick that fri draw 2gether with those other 13+ results or they went in hard n covered plenty of boxes. Good luck to them if they crack the biggy..
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Cheers Bazz, gonna try more of those 4 leg $1.25 ish parlays to get odds of around $2.50 each week now. 4 of em a week at 2 bucks a pop could be an easy $20 as well as hedging straight bets on lines that may miss by a point or a couple.
So someones riding all 8 margins on the NRL games including the eels dragons draw? holy shit!
Last few years most of my footy betting was ridiculous 8-12 multi's of lines/margins, cashing in $20-$50 a week basically playing footy lotto hoping to win thousands to shortcut to a hefty sb balance. Liking my methods this year much better, I'm being ultra conservative but it's better than being a square having to cash in weekly. If I finish the footy seasons near on or over 1k I'll be happy.Comment -
Cheers 2 u Alt - I won some good loot on a live carlton bet last sun nite to cover port by -49.5 so having a play on footytab this week. N yer very unlikely PTM was not won esp after that 2nd draw - f/tab made a rule change this yr where result is now at the 80th min - reg time only - i'm playing a $200 flexi this wk to get my 100% divi as the pool should jackpot n only 5 games scheduled... i should be able to cover 16 boxes for that loot, call me crazy but im gunna mark couple games as ALL meaning draws covered as well ..Comment -
Not sure about the footy pool thing, been awhile since I've been in a TAB. Best of luck with it though
Got the Dallas 1-10 in game 4 at $2.75, going the same again today.
Dallas 1-10 @ $2.75
AFL
St.Kilda 1-39 @ $2.15
NRL
St George 1-12 @ $3.50
Multi $7.53
St.Kilda 1-39 @ $2.15
St George 1-12 @ $3.50Comment -
West Coast -11.5 @ $2.10
Eagles by 39
Gold Coast +18.5 @ 2.00
Gold Coast ML @ $3.40
North by 59
Geelong 1-39 $2.25
Cats by 5
Multi @ $10.67
West Coast ML $1.66
Gold Coast ML $3.40
Geelong ML $1.50
Manly -5.5 $1.26
AFL/NRL/UFC Multi Odds: $58.64
Multi - NRL - Round 14 - Matches
Manly Sea Eagles v Nth Queensland Cowboys - Manly Sea Eagles - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.17
Multi - NRL - Round 14 - Matches
Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders - Brisbane Broncos - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.97
Multi - NRL - Round 14 - Matches
New Zealand Warriors v Wests Tigers - New Zealand Warriors - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.60
Multi - NRL - Round 14 - Matches
Melbourne Storm v Sydney Roosters - Melbourne Storm - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.73
Multi - AFL - Round 12 - Matches
Adelaide v West Coast - West Coast - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.66
Multi - AFL - Round 12 - Matches
Geelong v Hawthorn - Geelong - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.50
Multi - AFL - Round 12 - Matches
Sydney v Richmond - Sydney - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.28
Multi - AFL - Round 12 - Matches
Fremantle v Essendon - Fremantle - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.78
Multi - UFC - UFC 131
Shane Carwin v Junior Dos Santos - Junior Dos Santos - Win - Head To Head (Pending) 1.62
Wish I took Manly to cover now, pretty much broke even for the day. Oh well at least my 9 leg multi is still alive, 3 legs down 6 to go
Comment -
west coast at -7.5. do u still like them on the ml alt? trying to decide whether to hedge or not as i have west coast ml right now but not super confident.Comment -
why are you keen on GC tonight? I quite like them although it might be wet which would favour more experienced north so am a bit undecided.Comment -
crows came back, only to choke it away in 4th with 2 of the worst kicks ive seen. bad teams in footy dont seem to let u down too often. they always fold.Comment -
Brian why are u comaining? Didn't you have WC ML?Comment -
no complaint. just observation of game. i ended up hedging with crows +7.5. so a win but not one i couldve had. im just agitated with myself because i hedged last week with blues as well. two weeks in a row of doubting original pick cost me. sorry if i came off as whining. just keep making the mistake of giving home team more credit than they deserve, and then they disappear in crunch time. plus, when crows cut it to 9 i thought i had a shot at a huge payday.Comment -
Sorry guys was away all day, yeah Brian stay away from Adelaide in the future.
I was nearly gonna take West Coast -39.5 at $5, had selected and ready to be finalised I went and made a coffee this morning as I was working out my bets, for some reason my screensaver resolution had switched to like 1440x660 or something and I had to forcefully reboot as the display was locked with the screensaver on an uncompatible res, lost my post I had previewed and several other tabs open after rebooting I thought meh stick with the -11.5. Woulda been screwed by .5
binominal, tbh I didn't do too much homework on that game, it was just one I felt was fair chance for an upset as Gold Coast at home have been playing ok, they beat Brisbane who beat North. Winnable game for em so I went with the money.
Hope you all scalped the bookies and are having a nice weekend
Comment -
Bloody Wests ruined that 9 leg parlay for me! Or Storm would have tonight, probably.
Anyway my Dallas to win playoffs futures bet at $3.35 came good and I got the Dallas ML at $2.95 today, lost on live 2Q Dallas +1.5 at ev though. $6 into $10 off NBA today.
Wins on the Carlton & Freo lines yesterday negated by losses on Broncos -1.5 and Warriors -5.5 and lost about $15 on UFC yesterday thanks to JDS and Carwin going the distance and all my method of victory picks being off and the usual silly parlays, one was 16.9k/1 so still down a little for the weekend. Balance is at $221.
AFL
Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.25
Pies by 88, thought Demons would make a game of it.
Most Goals Travis Cloke @ $6.00
Cloke with 6, shame my tight ass only tossed a measly dollar on it.
NRL
Melbourne Storm 1-12 @ $3.30
Melbourne win 21-4Comment
