Alt75's AFL & NRL Thread

[hawley]

I dont know a whole heap about Baseball so all my plays are based on line movement etc, very little on the teams and pitchers.

From what I have seen in the baseball forum there are plenty of good stats used to analyze pitchers, but i dont even know where to find most of them let alone use them so i just stick to trying to read the lines.

[Gee]

It is exactly the same approach I take.

[brettels]

Wouldn't it be nice to have the same baseball money lines in every other sport

[TwoWays]

I find the best approach to betting baseball is backing the streaks. The baseball season is so long, and teams play almost every day, that every team goes through multiple streaks throughout the year, whether it be winning or losing, or the amount of runs scored. If you lose on a team one day, you will have a chance to win back betting with or against that team the next game. How many of you can think back to a team that has gone through a streak where they win one day, lose the next day, win the day after that, etc? If your smart with the amount you wager, you'll find the black.

[hawley]

It is exactly the same approach I take.

Considering how little I know - I am a baseball fan but my knowledge is somewhat lacking, I do alright off the lines.

Such a killer sport to bet on though, one innings can kill a total or side

[Alt75]

Fading Wang isn't a regular strategy, I know WHIP is a better stat for judging pitching matchups. I'm just picking out a few bases plays a day for something to punt a dollar/sbr points on during the week. Sometimes I go over the card with a fren I may play his tips if they make sense, sometimes I read the ESPN articles and make my own gut feeling ones.

Milwaukee Brewers ML @ $2.16

Live 5th innings Arizona Diamondbacks -2.5 @ $2.40

[brettels]

Not sure if it was in your thread or another one ALT, but someone had knowledge on the ITF rugby union and I was looking for some insight on the Auckland vs Counties Manukau match thats on in a couple hours. Anyone?

[Alt75]

One of the other rugby threads mate. I don't follow Kiwi union would be in beniphone's or IDunno89's threads most likely.


Even though I don't follow it I'm gonna bet it

Auckland 1-12 @ $3.10

woop 3-0 today

Lets keep this mid week degen action going.

WTA
Samantha Stosur @ $1.75

MLB
Padres @ $2.15

Rockies @ $2.21
Rockies v Reds Over 8 @ $2.00
Double @ $4.55

[Alt75]

AFL
St.Kilda vs Collingwood Over 168.5 @ $1.90

NRL
Brisbane ML @ $1.80
Brisbane -1.5 @ $2.06

Saints v Pies Over/Wests Tigers ML/Brisbane Broncos ML @ $4.68

Did this to stake the last $1.07 required to rollover the bet365 bonus, initial $25 deposit is now rolled over to $79 with the Pies Saints Over, Brisbane ML and 3 and 4 leggers pending.

Wests 1-12 $2.80
Broncos 1-12 $3.00
Taranaki 1-12 $2.75
Collingwood -36.5 $1.90
$.25
X4 $.3 $44.09/$13.27

[binomial]

like them. i still feel they set totals too low at ethiad in general.

also played Wests -7,5 $1.80 and will probably play Collingwood on the line.

[Alt75]

Got the total about as lowest possible, opened at 175 dropped to 168 and is now back to 174.5

Seems too low for Collingwood. Saints have been overrated by their string of easy wins, hopefully Saints manage to kick over 10/12 goals.

Was thinking of the same with a bet on a Wests line and maybe Collingwood too, wish I had have taken Wests and -6.5 earlier in the week, another line that was clearly only gonna move one way.

[binomial]

i managed to get the same number on the total as well.

might rain for penrith game which reduces appeal of taking wests for mine. think i will play the under, without lewis and jennings if wests come to play penrith shouldn't score too many. penrith have incentive to try as they would be in the finals mix if they win so hopefully wont let wests run up a cricket score.

decided to take the power +78.5 for tomorrow, gonna feel stupid if they get mauled.

GL.

[Gee]

IMO the movement on the total (now back to 172.5 and 171.5) means that the bookies don't know what kind of game this is going to be either.

fvckers could put up 200 or 100. Saints may try to strangle on the smaller ground. I just don't know.

The thing that put me off the over is that teams just aren't scoring big points against the saints. Pies may be better than all the other teams, but they only put up 108 against a decidedly weaker saints team.

[Alt75]

Can get total at 42 for $1.90 on sportingbet for Wests v Penrith.

40.5 $1.83 on bet365 and 42.5 for $1.80 on sportsbet

[Alt75]

Agreed Gee, even though Etihad should allow much cleaner disposal into the forward line it seems to strangle teams who usually kick big scores at the G, although Collingwood have played well everywhere in wet and dry this year so I don't think that much changes.

It should be a high scoring game if the Saints can keep up but I wouldn't be surprised for it to be low scoring and closer than expected with Saints come out strong, play man on man, trying to lift their tackle count and slow the game and Collingwood down, it's their best chance, they can't get into a shoot out with the Pies. I think they may be competitive for the first half and then Collingwood run away with it. As I posted in your thread, I think the scoreline falls in the area of Pies 120 to Saints 80.

[Gee]

I'll take 120 - 81 buddy I have 1.5 x at +130 on Pies 1-39!

[Alt75]

Best of luck, risky play capping a side like Collingwood less than 39, if you're feeling a close game or possible upset why not a Saints to cover or a pyol like +40.5, with an out for the upset?

I've learnt many times throughout the year while the 1-39 odds are appealing, shock upsets or 40-50 point wins screw them up a lot. Now I tend to take them sparingly when the spread is around -15/30.5 when I'm not feeling the fave to cover but don't think the dog will win. Like last week with Hawks and Roos.

[Gee]

I'm taking it because I like the Saints to cover, but not win.

It was between +36.5 and 1-39. I thought the 3 points was better value than a Saints win, not to mention the juicier odds too. A 40-50 point win would screw the +36.5 anyway.

It definitely wasn't done for the payout!

[Alt75]

Well I can understand that line of thinking and agree that Saints may cover but surely don't win, just from what I've learnt from this year and from watching your methods I would have gone the +40.5 pyol given myself an out with the upset on the anything can happen factor. I can recall numerous times this year I've taken a 1-39 on a fave and you've won on the + spread from the dog getting up.

Although on this game I think it's more likely it goes the other way that there's a huge blowout in Collingwood's favour instead of Saints pulling the upset of season.

BOL though sir

[Gee]

The price on the +40.5 wasn't worth the diff in 1-39 when I assessed the saints chances of actually winning. Both would have cashed though!

Bad luck on your over. In these huge games between two teams playing really well, I find totals too hard. From the posts in my thread, they must have just smothered each other for long enough to kill the over? Didn't get to see the whole game.

[Alt75]

Yeah I think the +40.5 pyol was only 1.49 or so, good call

re: The over going sour, I blame brettels for cashing it at half time


AFL
Hawthorn -82.5 @ $2.10

Carlton 1-39 @ $2.10

Gold Coast ML @ $3.05

Essendon -10.5 @ $2.10

NRL
New Zealand Warriors -6.5 @ $1.92

Manly Sea Eagles -10.0 @ $1.92
******* bs late try

x6 $104.13

Gold Coast +17.5 @ $2.00

Live @ Quarter time: Hawthorn 1H -73.5 @ $1.85
Live @ Half time: Hawthorn -178.5 @ $7.50
Live @ Half time: Hawthorn 3Q -32.5 @ $1.85


Tri Nations
Australia @ $2.37

Manly/Essendon/Gold Coast/Australia ML's @ $16.22

[binomial]

very nice day brewing.

[Alt75]

Cheers, yup, doing ok so far aside the last 2 live bets.

Lions will ruin my night though, I am sure of it.

[Alt75]

AFL
Sydney Swans 1Q -5.5 @ $1.92

Live 3Q West Coast Eagles -80.5 @ $2.75
Dammit Melbourne kick 2 goals after I place it.

Sydney 2Q -4.5 @ $1.85

Richmond 3Q -0.5 $1.85

Richmond 4Q ML @ $2.60
Richmond -44.5 @ $12
1.5 points off

Steve Johnson First Goal @ $9

West Coast @ 1.20
Over185.5 @ 1.90
Sydney @ 1.30
Geelong -49.5 @ 1.90
Over185.5 @ 1.90
Under183.5 @ 1.90
Six-Folds, 1 bet * 0.25 @ 20.72

Live Adelaide +8.5 @ $10

[Alt75]

UFC Live

Chris Lytle by KO/TKO $1 @ $13.50 Lytle wins by Sub
Benson Henderson by KO/TKO $1 @ $15.25 Henderson by Decision
Double $1.31 @ 205.88

Did this patent with my last $11.50 in titanbet.

Chris Lytle @ $1.90
Donald Cerrone @ $2.25
Benson Henderson @ 2.20
$2 per single
$2.50 x3 @ $9.40
$1 x3 doubles
$11.50 to return $49.61

Whole Card Parlay
2: (Straight) Edwin Figueroa @ 1.29
1: (Straight) Jacob Volkman @ 1.95
2: (Straight) Cole Miller @ 1.23
2: (Straight) Karlos Vemola @ 1.42
2: (Straight) Kyle Noke @ 1.59
2: (Straight) Joseph Benavidez @ 1.38
2: (Straight) CB Dollaway @ 1.37
2: (Straight) Amir Sadollah @ 1.29
2: (Straight) Donald Cerrone @ 2.15
2: (Straight) Ben Henderson @ 2.25
2: (Straight) Chris Lytle @ 1.84
$1 @ $151.65

[Alt75]

Thanks to that UFC patent balance is now $260, goal of $250 reached quicker than expected

Monday Night NRL

Canterbury Bulldogs -2 - $9 @ $1.91

Took it on sportingbet for a cent less than sportsbet, wanna get that balance moving upwards again.

[binomial]

playing sharks +4.5 $1.80.

so no GL today.

[Alt75]

fine

I'll be the bigger man and say Bulldogs by 4 and GL to both of us

[Gee]

I got sharks 2.5, so i hope you push alt

[Alt75]

haha damn gettin no love today

This is going to be a nail biter I reckon

Nascar
Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen: Marcus Ambrose @ $4.20

[binomial]

nice call on dogs.

pretty keen to fade them dogs going forward though they were terrible.

[Gee]

ALT, where the hell have you been?

check in pal to show you're alive. surely your ban for those PMs re: the other site must be done now.

fukn mods.

email me. let me know whats happening. need your bellator thoughts for tomorrow.

theseo13 - rocketmail dot com (not yahoo).