Alt75's AFL & NRL Thread

[Alt75]

Trying my luck on bases today.

MLB
Phillies $4.75 @ 1.84

Angels/Brewers/Nats/Phillies/Redsox $.25 @ $14.90/$3.73
Dammit Brewers go down 8/7 in the 11th, oh well 4 from 5 aint too bad.

[Gee]

Good luck buddy. On Nats. Not on any of those games you mentioned. Lannan should have this...

I gotta say I disagreed with your analysis of the Strikeforce card (which was evident from our wagers).

Smith is overrated. He has heart and chin, but can't take a punch to the body, limited ground game and throws those mechanical punches that make me cringe.

Similar thoughts on Daley and he nearly pulled it off too... if only there was an unfortunate slippage like in the Fedor fight it could have been stopped. Agree on Lawler too - he is so damn talented, but can get out fought, particularly on the ground. Its a huge hole.

Most of all, I disagree on Fedor though. I thought this was going to end with Fedors head against the cage getting punched.
The ring is a lot easier to escape than the cage and Fedor is not a tough guy to take down. I have been waiting for a long time for someone to take him down and just control him - then bigfoot did it. However, it has been coming - Coleman was all over him till he got sloppy, Fujita should have KO'd him... Hell, even Hong Man Choi could have won if his wrestling was better OR if he had a cage to push him up against. Obviously, thats not how it finished, but that was always a problem. As for Hendo - in his stand up, he's always had his hands held high and you aren't submitting him. I remember him rolling around in an openweight fight with Nog early in his pride days. This was a terrible match up for Fedor the more I thought about it IMO. I just couldn't see how he was going to win it...

[Alt75]

Good luck buddy. On Nats. Not on any of those games you mentioned. Lannan should have this...

I gotta say I disagreed with your analysis of the Strikeforce card (which was evident from our wagers).

Smith is overrated. He has heart and chin, but can't take a punch to the body, limited ground game and throws those mechanical punches that make me cringe.

Similar thoughts on Daley and he nearly pulled it off too... if only there was an unfortunate slippage like in the Fedor fight it could have been stopped. Agree on Lawler too - he is so damn talented, but can get out fought, particularly on the ground. Its a huge hole.

Most of all, I disagree on Fedor though. I thought this was going to end with Fedors head against the cage getting punched.
The ring is a lot easier to escape than the cage and Fedor is not a tough guy to take down. I have been waiting for a long time for someone to take him down and just control him - then bigfoot did it. However, it has been coming - Coleman was all over him till he got sloppy, Fujita should have KO'd him... Hell, even Hong Man Choi could have won if his wrestling was better OR if he had a cage to push him up against. Obviously, thats not how it finished, but that was always a problem. As for Hendo - in his stand up, he's always had his hands held high and you aren't submitting him. I remember him rolling around in an openweight fight with Nog early in his pride days. This was a terrible match up for Fedor the more I thought about it IMO. I just couldn't see how he was going to win it...

Cheers

Agree on Smith, he's not nearly as technical as Saffiedine but he can pull wins out of nowhere and he's just one of those likeable hardworking guys you're happy to see win.

I agree wrestling isn't Fedor's strongest aspect but his Judo and clinch/base and defensive wrestling against the cage is fairly strong, especially for someone who fought the majority of their career in a ring.

Bigfoot took him down with power doubles by slipping under punches which Hendo doesn't really resort to. Disagree with the rest of it though there's a lot of should of and could ofs, at the end of those fights Fedor had his hand raised, his ability to fight through bad situations is unparalleled against a variety of opponents. He was able to defend against Hendo's clinch against the cage, if Dan was a bulking 265lb HW then yeah he'd have probably controlled Fedor and beat him up against the cage which is how I can see Fedor would lose more often than not in a cage. He's a much more intelligent fighter than the likes of Carwin/Brock who have the build skillset to implement that gameplan so as with anything those can always go either way. It's basically dependant on does he get controlled against the cage or not.

How many times have you seen Hendo backed up like that, sure he keeps his hands high but he also telegraphs the overhand a lot and isn't a technical striker, Fedor does get reckless often going for the finish, it's usually calculated and always paid off till Werdum technically he is a far better striker than Dan with as much if not more finishing power in both hands. And he's dropped true HW's where as Hendo has KO'd Bisping, Feijao who got TKO'd by Kyle. Gono and Chonan, Busta years ago remember he was criticised with "Decision Dan" for years he KO's Bisping at MW and Feijao and then all of a sudden he's some elite striker

Fedor and Dan in a K-1 or Boxing rules fight doesn't end with the same result.

The one chance Hendo had to win he took it, that was catching Fedor with somewhat lucky right hand in a bad position. Everything else was in favour of Fedor. Hendo is submittable just about anyone is when they are getting beaten up, if Fedor hadn't have slipped/been swept Dan could have very well have given up his back from GnP and Fedor could have sunk in a RNC or grabbed an arm. Hendo's been submitted by both Nog brothers and Anderson, Fedor is definitely capable of it. Also to add, some of the most vehement long term Fedor haters in the MMA community gave Dan little to no chance in this fight due to the skill and weight class difference, even though the weight wasn't much of a factor aside a small strength advantage to Fedor.

The openweight fight between Dan and Big Nog was in Rings not Pride btw

[Alt75]

MLB

Baltimore Orioles @ $2.12

[Gee]

We have to agree to disagree on Fedor/Hendo.

No decent wrestler, which I include Hendo in, has ever had a problem taking Fedor down. I don't class Dan as an elite striker, but I see him as very solid, KO power and hard to hurt, which is all he needed IMO. Fedor would win under K1 rules, but wasn't why I had Hendo. I thought Fedor wouldn't KO him (although I was close to being wrong) and once Dan got hold of him, he would out wrestle him.

I don't think I've seen the Rings fight - had heard of it. All rings was fixed anyway wasn't it? I was thinking of the Pride fight where, from memory, he took it on short notice and put on a good show. Rings and pancrase were two shows I never got to see much of :/

[Alt75]

We have to agree to disagree on Fedor/Hendo.

No decent wrestler, which I include Hendo in, has ever had a problem taking Fedor down. I don't class Dan as an elite striker, but I see him as very solid, KO power and hard to hurt, which is all he needed IMO. Fedor would win under K1 rules, but wasn't why I had Hendo. I thought Fedor wouldn't KO him (although I was close to being wrong) and once Dan got hold of him, he would out wrestle him.

I don't think I've seen the Rings fight - had heard of it. All rings was fixed anyway wasn't it? I was thinking of the Pride fight where, from memory, he took it on short notice and put on a good show. Rings and pancrase were two shows I never got to see much of :/

Well even Big Nog who has fought both of them agreed in his pre-fight analysis Fedor has strong greco/judo, if not stronger and was capable of submitting Dan. Which is a huge prop in itself as Nog was always kind of pissed towards Fedor stealing his lunch money and BJJ guys rarely give grappling respect to judoka/catch wrestlers or sambo players. Fedor wasn't really in trouble from Dan's clinch, he can handle himself agaisnt the cage standing ok, the threat of a takedown and Dan posturing up to GnP Fedor was non existent. You're entitled to disagree but imo you're wrong on the grappling analysis even though you won $$$ on the fight.

Big Nog on their clinch game

“I had a harder time with Fedor. He uses his body more; he uses a lot more of his body, so I have a harder time to clinch him,” Nogueira said. “But Dan Henderson’s clinch is very good. I think he’s very dangerous. If Dan Henderson clinches him, it would be a smarter game, because he’s a Greco guy, [and] he can take away [his opponent’s strength] when he clinches the guy. It will probably be Dan Henderson using the Greco-Roman [wrestling] he’s got, play a little in the clinch and take a little bit of [Fedor’s] endurance and strength in the clinch.”

Big Nog on Submissions

“Of course, Fedor is one of the best submission guys,” Nogueira added. “He’s got a very good armbar. I think that can happen, too, if Dan Henderson lets him stay in the position [on the bottom]. But Dan Henderson is very tough, and he don’t give up. It’s not going to be easy for him to submit Dan Henderson.”

Of course Dan is a quality wrestler, you can't all lump them under an umbrella term it comes down to individual skillsets and style match ups Dan is wrong type to trouble Fedor purely from a wrestling standpoint, power doubles from a collegiate background yes but Dan as a greco specialist doesn't shoot and Fedor with the strength and judo/sambo base is good enough to nullify greco guys especially with a weight/strength advantage. Hendo's style is clinch grind against the cage, do some damage. win some points if he can't grind them for GnP. Plus Dan's back isn't the best any more there was no chance in hell even if he decided to shoot for a leg would he get it unless he caught Fedor being extremely sloppy wading in. Also being a smaller agile HW Fedor is damn good off his back. Dan wasn't going to take him down and lay in his guard with Fedors ability to scramble and snatch armbars as fast as someone can blink, also the grip on RNC Fedor uses is an old school judo wind pipe crush using the wrist bone, not a blood choke. As tough as Hendo is, anyone will tap to that once Fedor has control/hooks in.

Dan wanted a brawl or a cage humping win Randy style was realistically his best chance. Fedor tends to oblige people and fight and try and beat them at their own game if he can get away with it, see he came out swinging got clipped and went back to calculated technical striking, backed Hendo up put him on his ass and nearly got the finish and he wasn't even throwing a huge haymaker like against Rogers. Fedor can KO anybody in MMA if he connects. The Pride commentators used to say his punches sounded like someone hitting an animal carcass with a baseball bat from ringside.

No Rings wasn't fixed ???
Some early Pride fights were works and I believe Coleman took a dive in an early fight.
It was similar to shooto rules with no GnP to the head and submission attempts/attempts to finish scored over lay and pray. Which is one of the causes of the long term "Arona beat Fedor" trolls as people who watch it on youtube score it as a UFC fight with North American sanctioned rules.

Big Nog and Dan in Pride was at HW where Dan was tapped by an armbar.
The Rings fight was at open weight where Dan was gifted a split decision. It wasn't on short notice as it was a tournament, Dan decisioned Yvel in the fight before Nog.

[Alt75]

MLB

Nats @ $2.30 fucken scrubs
Nats v Rockies Over 10.0 @ 1.80
Rockies win 6-3

Yankees @ $1.90

Phillies @ $1.74

Nats & Over/Yankees ML/Phillies ML @ $13.49

[Gee]

Yup, we agree to disagree on Fedor/Dan.

I think part of the confusion is that I'm talking about Fedor now, where Nog and most of the MMA community is talking about Fedor at his best. I think the decline of the really great fighters is a really tough thing to cap... I still think he had the holes in his game I was talking about back then, but he had the crazy heart of a champion to always be able to get out of it... Anyway, enough on this one. Who you got this weekend? ps. can you please email me that link so i can sign up to get streamed fights? quality on mmatv is shit these days.

I remember Rings being fixed... but I think that may have only been when the Jap public favourites were fighting... so it wouldn't have included hendo and others. I remember it had a shady history of worked fights.

who you going to get on tonight?

[Alt75]

Well yeah I agree the decline of the old guard is hard to cap, but Fedor isn't showing signs of decline from getting old where as the likes of Nog, Wand and Chuck got a bit chinny and CroCop got gun shy, he got beat under circumstances where he got caught twice going for the finish and against Bigfoot taken down and mounted, it could have happened in his prime too.

Anyway yeah, enough of that I've probably had more long winded rants on MMA/Fedor than you've picked winners. At least you're respectable in your analysis. Which mmatv feed are you using? One of the public ones?

Will re-send the link.

Still kinda undecided on Saints and Dockers. Dockers to cover... I think.

I've still got $37 to rollover on bet365 to be able to withdraw the bonus thinking of just playing $10 or $20 Dragons SU, they shouldn't lose 3 in a row.

Cowboys and Bulldogs I'm not confident on will probably leave it alone.

[Alt75]

No more funny business playing every game/spread/total and multi's, my balance has copped a few whacks the past weeks from poor betting outlay and also sucking at poker. Is below $200 without the bet365 bonus

Time to get sensible and slowly rape the bookies for a few bucks a day to grind back to around $250.

NRL
St George Dragons ML $6 @ $1.50 shitcunts
Hopefully they don't flop 3 weeks running. Should have taken it earlier at $1.67, was obvious it was only going to move one way

AFL
Saints 1Q -8.5 $2.50 @ $1.92
Your 1Q magic better not let me down brettels I'll pm you a truck load of chicken poo!

[Alt75]

Saturday's bets

MLB

Toronto Blue Jays $1 @ $1.86
Jays win 5-4. Off to a good start!

Arizona Diamondbacks $1 @ $1.73
Dodgers 7-4

Philadelphia Phillies $1 @ $1.84
Phillies win 9-2

AFL

Carlton -40.5 $5 @ $1.91

Geelong 1Q -21.5 $5.30 @ $1.92

James Podsiadly Most Goals $2 @ $3.25
Stevie J kicks 6, Pods 5.

Sydney Swans ML $2.62 @ $1.90

Port Adelaide vs Collingwood Under 187.5 $2.62 @ $1.90

NRL
Melbourne Storm -11.5 $3.18 @ $1.74

Brisbane Broncos -5.5 $2.70 @ $1.85

Tri Nations
New Zealand -9.5 $2 @ $1.91

[Alt75]

UFC 133

Dennis Hallman $1.11 @ $1.80

Johny Hendricks $1.11 @ $1.80

Alexander Gustafsson $1.27 @ $1.57

Nam Phan $1.67 @ $2.80

Paul Bradley $1.38 @ $1.72

Jorge Rivera $1.20 @ $1.66

$7.74 outlay return $4

Prop bets
Vitor Belfort Fastest KO/TKO $1 @ $5.50

Vitor Belfort by KO/TKO $2.20
Jorge Rivera by KO/TKO $2.55
Paul Bradley on points $2.73
Alexander Gustafsson by KO/TKO $5.20
Rory Macdonald on points $2.64
Dennis Hallman on points $3.60
Rashad Evans by KO/TKO $4.40 <- taking a chance it's not a snoozer.
$1 per single - $1 x7 @ $3330.34

Outlay $9 return $17.30

Parlay of whole card.
Paul Bradley @ 1.72
Alexander Gustafsson @ 1.57
Vitor Belfort @ 1.30
Rashad Evans @ 1.25
Chad Mendes @ 1.16
Ivan Menjivar @ 1.50
Jorge Rivera @ 1.66
Rory MacDonald @ 1.36
Dennis Hallman @ 1.80
Nam Phan @ 2.80
Johny Hendricks @ 1.80
$.25 @ $159.14/$39.54

Alexander Gustafsson @ 1.57
Chad Mendes @ 1.16
Vitor Belfort @ 1.30
Rashad Evans @ 1.25
Brisbane ML @ 1.68
Hawthorn ML @ 1.22
Manly Sea Eagles ML @ 1.25
Newcastle Knights ML @ 1.36
$.27 @ $10.48/$2.56

******* lions again

Manly -12.5 $2.10
Newcastle Knights 1-12
Brisbane 1-39 $2.30
Hawthorn 1-39 $2.20
West Coast -46.5 $2.10
Vitor Belfort by KO/TKO $2.20
$1.55 @ 152.19/$235.89

AFL
Hawthorn 1-39 $2 @ $2.10
West Coast Eagles -43.5 $5.51 @ $1.90

NRL
Newcastle 1-12 $1 @ $3.10
Manly -10.5 $2.62 @ $1.92

[binomial]

your MMA card is looking a little chalky.

AFL: on same with WC and Hawthorn, gonna play Adelaide +6.5.

GL

[Alt75]

Cheers you too, usually wager up to or over 10% on an mma card. The layout on the props was a positive return, not so good on the SU picks.

Hopefully I sweep on footy picks and win that $235, didn't get a straight bet in on the Lions. Just woke up again after a Sunday morning bong nap.

[Alt75]

Rabbitohs vs Eels over 42.5 $2.50 @ $2.00

[binomial]

ANZ seemed to be a bit of a heavy track on friday night and it rained a bit yesterday, is the only thing making me nervous about playing over.

[ultrasouth]

Changing my mind to overs now lol

[Alt75]

Only a slight chance of rain so weather shouldn't affect it too much. I usually go the unders, this one's a bit high but both sides are prone to undisciplined crapness so I'm expecting each side to put up over 20 or one side could put up over 30-40. Total is safer than betting on either side to win/cover or a margin.

BOL whatever you go with

[ultrasouth]

Leanning towards parra and over

[binomial]

decided to play souths -3.5 + over 40.5 $3.40.

pretty rare for parra to get to 24, although bunnies know how to leak points with the best of them, so think its more likely that souths cover if it goes over.

[GroundnPound]

Souths -3.5 is my play 1x

[ultrasouth]

Was going to back the under but changed my mind and went over hope it doesnt come back and haunt me.

[Alt75]

Good luck! -3.5 is a favourable line being under an unconverted try, if they win they surely cover. Earlier in the season I vowed never to back the rabbits again, think I posted something about it, same with nrl totals too but since I usually lean the under and am mostly wrong also these sides can give up points easy I'm liking the over.

Was thinking of chancing some change on the Parra 1-12 or a Eels pyol like 3.5 too, just taking a chance on an upset at nice odds. Rabbitohs are the kind of side that could beat Dragons and then lose an easier game and screw their final hopes. Plus I kinda dislike them.

[Alt75]

Was going to back the under but changed my mind and went over hope it doesnt come back and haunt me.

I think we can cash that over

Live @ HT - Rabbitohs -49.5 $1.02 @ $5.00

wooo last minute try and conversion.

[ultrasouth]

Went to back overs and parra but something told me not to and i just backed the overs

1 off my easiest wins for a while

[Alt75]

Yeah my bets are usually nail biters, nice to have an easy win for a change. Was a little worried it would be a scoreless 2nd half after posting about cashing the over.

I'm pretty stoked I've hit 3 bets at odds of $5 and 1 @ $4.40 in 2 consecutive days. Up yours statistics/probability

MLB patent
Braves & Marlins Over 8.5 @ $1.83
Cincinnati Reds ML @ $1.62
Chicago White Sox ML @ $1.78
$.2 per single, $.1 per double, $.11 x 3 - $1.01 to return $2.54

Giants ML & Under + Phillies ML $.3 @ $4.34

[Gee]

Nice call on the over and rabbitohs 2H!

well done. i stayed away yesterday.

[binomial]

sick.

[Alt75]

Cheers Gee, glad it was the apparent RLM/square bet nature that scared you off instead of me, I was expecting to be called a hamburger, yet again.

Nice hit on that spread/total double binomial

Going to try and lay a little more down on certain bets I'm really comfortable with next week. Only got about 8 bucks to rollover in bet365 for the 100% bonus to be cleared, another decent week I should be able withdrawl most out of sports/sportingbet and bet365, sign up and transfer it on pinny and go pro next week. Can get by with 10 or 20 bucks in sportsbet for mma/afl props and about the same in bet365.

Will definitely be fading the Lions.

[Alt75]

MLB

Cubs -1.5 $2.25
Cubs v Nats Over 9.5 $2.05
Double @ $4.34

[brettels]

What you think of the phillies today alt?

[Alt75]

Sorry bit late now but Phillies are a pretty solid bet lately. I only picked out the Cubs game, went with RL/Over cause Wang with a terrible ERA was pitching.

[Gee]

Wang has actually been good in portions for each of his first two starts.

His main problems came early (and in one bad innings against the braves) but he showed he still had really good stuff and these things happen when you have two years off.

I wouldn't keep fading him... he does have good stuff. I suppose you saw that today

[hawley]

Just my 2c

ERA is one of the worst stats to judge a pitcher by. If you want to look at pitcher match ups and use them as the basis for plays try and dig a little deeper into more telling stats.

[Gee]

Agree entirely Hawley.

That being said, I don't know how to cap baseball games....

I just cap the market, but if you follow it enough you know how all the pitchers are faring. I don't look at their stats though. Thats a minefield for me. All that stuff is built into the line anyway and the MLB market is bloody efficient.