Horse Racing questions and answers

[batt33]

good time to mention there is a horse in R3 at churchill "army officer" .. this one isn't by army mule

haha isn't that a "gotcha" for Army Mule fans?? okay well it got me

[batt33]

When a horse switches leads back and forth, their mind is not where you want it to be. If they are thinking about anything but competing, they are not at their absolute best for that period of time.

Probably fair to add that into his effort knowing his mind was wandering a bit that last part of the race. Only adds to the overall ability he displayed IMO.

Always learning with this group!

[str]

do you think that could be the case str ... maybe throw a baby off with two starts on it to begin it's career ?

It could have been that but.. most likely the horse did not care for some aspect of the mud. Maybe the footing was bothering the horse or the mud kick back. Something like that probably.
I would avoid doing much with babies on a real muddy, sloppy surface before their first race. Even the echo of the feet slapping on the slop can Scare a baby when it echoes through the stretch and the grandstand. So many little things can go wrong it’s like, what’s the point. Just take the day and wait for a better surface tomorrow was my approach. Not all trainer’s though. Some of them would have trained them on anything just to train them. My emphasis was a little different than the big name baby trainers who pretty much had no 4 yr. Olds.
If I knew more about the trainers rep that might answer the question.

[str]

Right on.

If it ends 1-12, your first day here

happy birthday for me. LOL

Watching, waiting, working up a hunger.

Hi B12. I wanted to be sure and point out that while Taj Mahal got a winning trip in the Preakness, his race was all but over after about 20 seconds. If you watched the TV network version, do you remember when they switched cameras just as Taj Mahal was getting ready to go into the first turn? If not, you tube it and watch that for about 20 seconds. The only thing I want you to look at when the view switches to the side is Taj Mahals eyes and face. It might be hard to see at first but watch it a few times only around the clubhouse turn when you can see that view of him up close. Notice that the horse is running like a tiger is chasing him and his hair is on fire. The rider is fighting him with all his strength but he has no chance. That is a most classic display of "running off" that you ever see. The rider might as well have been pushing him to open up 20 lengths at that point because that is the amount of energy Taj Mahal was exerting. He displayed that same thing in his previous race when he opened up 10 lengths but half way down the backside that day, the rider finally got him to drop the bit enough to relax. That should have gotten him beat that day but he was SO much the best it didn't.
Taj Mahal never relaxed a bit. He simply ran out of air stressing mentally. He is better than his last race. A lot better. But... he will need to relax and rate if he is going to beat the top horses around. He can rate on the lead. That's no problem. But he needs to learn to take orders from the rider and hopefully he can come around to that.
I am sure that working towards that will be priority one for the trainer at this point. He had the talent to win but not the mindset. I hope that makes sense and you can see what I am talking about. Let me know if I can help you with that .

[BOA12]

Hi B12. I wanted to be sure and point out that while Taj Mahal got a winning trip in the Preakness, his race was all but over after about 20 seconds. If you watched the TV network version, do you remember when they switched cameras just as Taj Mahal was getting ready to go into the first turn? If not, you tube it and watch that for about 20 seconds. The only thing I want you to look at when the view switches to the side is Taj Mahals eyes and face. It might be hard to see at first but watch it a few times only around the clubhouse turn when you can see that view of him up close. Notice that the horse is running like a tiger is chasing him and his hair is on fire. The rider is fighting him with all his strength but he has no chance. That is a most classic display of "running off" that you ever see. The rider might as well have been pushing him to open up 20 lengths at that point because that is the amount of energy Taj Mahal was exerting. He displayed that same thing in his previous race when he opened up 10 lengths but half way down the backside that day, the rider finally got him to drop the bit enough to relax. That should have gotten him beat that day but he was SO much the best it didn't.
Taj Mahal never relaxed a bit. He simply ran out of air stressing mentally. He is better than his last race. A lot better. But... he will need to relax and rate if he is going to beat the top horses around. He can rate on the lead. That's no problem. But he needs to learn to take orders from the rider and hopefully he can come around to that.
I am sure that working towards that will be priority one for the trainer at this point. He had the talent to win but not the mindset. I hope that makes sense and you can see what I am talking about. Let me know if I can help you with that .

Makes total sense str.

A free spirit by nature,

a lot like most horse

lover brothers.

A leader not a fan

of being behind.

Will he run in

Maryland again or

head to $$ greener

pasture's ?

[BOA12]

How far is Laurel from Baltimore ?

Like to meet the chief/ U/andy

at Laurel and add to my list

of visited Ovals.

Your home court

will be #21 over a

50 year passion, hobby,

odyssey and full

time pursuit

of a good time

all the time.

My Paradise on

Earth, A World

W/out evil,my yard.

Once I leave there,

All bets R off.

GL my loyal friend

and holder of great

professional and

personal wisdom

in my experience W/U.

[JBEX]

guessing it's not as simple as removing the blinkers str .. do you think it's possible that they could get him to relax to a degree - think maybe in an extended sprint he might naturally fall into place more than going two turns ? he did break his maiden off the pace at 6f in his debut and won a 1 turn mile at start 2

[str]

How far is Laurel from Baltimore ?

Like to meet the chief/ U/andy

at Laurel and add to my list

of visited Ovals.

Your home court

will be #21 over a

50 year passion, hobby,

odyssey and full

time pursuit

of a good time

all the time.

My Paradise on

Earth, A World

W/out evil,my yard.

Once I leave there,

All bets R off.

GL my loyal friend

and holder of great

professional and

personal wisdom

in my experience W/U.

Laurel is 30 minutes south straight down I-95. If you ever want to come there let me know.

[str]

guessing it's not as simple as removing the blinkers str .. do you think it's possible that they could get him to relax to a degree - think maybe in an extended sprint he might naturally fall into place more than going two turns ? he did break his maiden off the pace at 6f in his debut and won a 1 turn mile at start 2

It could be that simple. Rather than jump through protocol with having to break from the gate with the bell to remove them( don’t know if that is still a rule) I just made them cheaters. Each cup about 3/4’s of an inch only. Basically, no blinkers. But he needs to work on that scenario in the morning. Depends on the horse as to how difficult it might be. But if he can relax, he has real talent.

[stevenash]

It's pouring rain all over here in the Northeast.
Do you guys have any slop eaters that might pay a nice price?

[BOA12]

Laurel is 30 minutes south straight down I-95. If you ever want to come there let me know.

Ten4.

[BOA12]

It's pouring rain all over here in the Northeast.
Do you guys have any slop eaters that might pay a nice price?

If I hit my early double

at GP

will look at Baq

4 sum mudders

for both of us.

12 mins r2 at gp.

[str]

It's pouring rain all over here in the Northeast.
Do you guys have any slop eaters that might pay a nice price?

Hi Nasher,

As you know, sloppy and muddy tracks can have extreme biases. They all don't, but enough of them do. Trying to prepare a depth of the track with heavy rain forecasted in never easy for the track superintendent. Sometimes, those in charge make it look easy, but it is not.

Speed usually has an edge going into any sloppy race because it is so easy to be on the lead, and so hard to navigate the wet mud flying back at the rider and of course, the horse. Then you have the question about footing. Does the horse trust the footing? If not, the form should show that. If so, it will show that as well. In spots like yesterday, if a handicapper does not rely heavily on the horses improvement or lessening ability on a wet surface, they are not using the tools in their belt. For that part of it, it is this simple. Some horses completely trust the mud and or wet. Others do not to varying degrees. Those that do not perform well on sloppy tracks are typically an auto toss for me. If there is no form, their breeding can suggest likes or dislikes.

Question: You know how we walk on ice when we don't trust the footing? We walk with the bulk of our weight UP. In our shoulders or midsection so as to be able to react to slipping better. Well, that is exactly what a horse will do if they do not trust it. And that makes them slow. Just like it makes us slow. But... steady , right? That's the old saying. And its a saying for a reason. It's true. Same with horses. A young apprentice rider is not as seasoned with using goggles when on a closer and probably wishes he/she had done a better job after the race win or lose with those goggles. A veteran does not have that problem. All that stuff adds up. And in gambling, as you know, all those little things DO add up over a large enough sample size.
So... whenever we bet, we are simply trying to slant the odds in our favor right? So playing against a bug rider who is on a closer in the slop at very low odds, might be well worth the risk.

It's rarely one thing that helps make a bet a good play or a bad one. It's the culmination of slanting enough odds per occurrence in your favor to make the investment well worth the risk. I know you know that Nasher. I do as well. But hopefully someone will read this and benefit from it.
I do enjoy trying to point things out to other gamblers that are simply an effort to get the odds more in a players favor than typically. It took a lot of years to learn to understand that stuff for many a "seasoned" player. This is definitely that, in horse racing.

Remember, Measure twice, cut once. And if you are mad after losing a wager, don't be mad at yourself. Learn from it and chalk it up to life's tuition to higher learning. It's the same mistake over again that should make you mad. Not a learning moment ,as long as you do learn from it.

And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country.

Good luck everyone. Feel free to follow up if you have any questions.

[stevenash]

^

Appreciate that post.
Thanks

[BOA12]

Hi Nasher,

As you know, sloppy and muddy tracks can have extreme biases. They all don't, but enough of them do. Trying to prepare a depth of the track with heavy rain forecasted in never easy for the track superintendent. Sometimes, those in charge make it look easy, but it is not.

Speed usually has an edge going into any sloppy race because it is so easy to be on the lead, and so hard to navigate the wet mud flying back at the rider and of course, the horse. Then you have the question about footing. Does the horse trust the footing? If not, the form should show that. If so, it will show that as well. In spots like yesterday, if a handicapper does not rely heavily on the horses improvement or lessening ability on a wet surface, they are not using the tools in their belt. For that part of it, it is this simple. Some horses completely trust the mud and or wet. Others do not to varying degrees. Those that do not perform well on sloppy tracks are typically an auto toss for me. If there is no form, their breeding can suggest likes or dislikes.

Question: You know how we walk on ice when we don't trust the footing? We walk with the bulk of our weight UP. In our shoulders or midsection so as to be able to react to slipping better. Well, that is exactly what a horse will do if they do not trust it. And that makes them slow. Just like it makes us slow. But... steady , right? That's the old saying. And its a saying for a reason. It's true. Same with horses. A young apprentice rider is not as seasoned with using goggles when on a closer and probably wishes he/she had done a better job after the race win or lose with those goggles. A veteran does not have that problem. All that stuff adds up. And in gambling, as you know, all those little things DO add up over a large enough sample size.
So... whenever we bet, we are simply trying to slant the odds in our favor right? So playing against a bug rider who is on a closer in the slop at very low odds, might be well worth the risk.

It's rarely one thing that helps make a bet a good play or a bad one. It's the culmination of slanting enough odds per occurrence in your favor to make the investment well worth the risk. I know you know that Nasher. I do as well. But hopefully someone will read this and benefit from it.
I do enjoy trying to point things out to other gamblers that are simply an effort to get the odds more in a players favor than typically. It took a lot of years to learn to understand that stuff for many a "seasoned" player. This is definitely that, in horse racing.

Remember, Measure twice, cut once. And if you are mad after losing a wager, don't be mad at yourself. Learn from it and chalk it up to life's tuition to higher learning. It's the same mistake over again that should make you mad. Not a learning moment ,as long as you do learn from it.

And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country.

Good luck everyone. Feel free to follow up if you have any questions.

Only $100 horse I ever "capped"

was the finale at

Belmont in the slop

with my last $2.

Speed and the lead

nobody within 2

lengths the entire trip.

Otherwise, slop not been my friend

as a general rule.

[JBEX]

an army mule in a stakes race at lone star R10 #9 master mule (4-1) ... also one at churchill R7 #11 army wildcatter (20-1)

[str]

Only $100 horse I ever "capped"

was the finale at

Belmont in the slop

with my last $2.

Speed and the lead

nobody within 2

lengths the entire trip.

Otherwise, slop not been my friend

as a general rule.

I always felt that on a sloppy track, everything is different. Like a day when it snowed all day when you were a kid.
try and be selective. See things differently. Analyze the results and see if you missed something. Not that you did but eliminate the possibility.
if you treat it like a novelty and approach it differently, you might see things you normally wouldn’t.
just give it a chance. You might be amazed. I know I was and still am sometimes. Last years Met Mile comes to mind.

[batt33]

Best post of the day in this thread STR! "And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country."
I thank a veteran every time I see them... the ball cap gives them away! They sometimes ask did you serve? No sir... Just a wildland firefighter...Much respect back and forth....

[batt33]

Bacio: Workout



Bacio breezed this morning at Keeneland, going five furlongs in 1:00.80 in preparation for his start across the pond. He continues to train extremely well.

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/IMG1980_1779720986459/MP4/IMG1980_1779720986459.mp4

[BOA12]

Best post of the day in this thread STR! "And on this Memorial day, be sure and thank a veteran for their service. Without them, life might be completely different for all of us. It's a luxury for all of us to have the time and the freedom to discuss gambling today, or any day and that luxury was and IS provided by all those that served your country."
I thank a veteran every time I see them... the ball cap gives them away! They sometimes ask did you serve? No sir... Just a wildland firefighter...Much respect back and forth....

You serve and protect

willingly batt.

Right on, fireman can get burned,

fuk that.

How's your dad,

I miss my horse

lover father, I regress.

Stay safe we need U here,

Cal. needs U there.

BOL chief.

[BOA12]

an army mule in a stakes race at lone star R10 #9 master mule (4-1) ... also one at churchill R7 #11 army wildcatter (20-1)

Is this LS race today J ?

I don't see on either site I use.

[JBEX]

Is this LS race today J ?

I don't see on either site I use.

looks like tvg doesn't have it .. I don't look at that track much

[JBEX]

a good card at lone star .. 7 stakes races .. both ortiz brothers and luis saez there

[BOA12]

a good card at lone star .. 7 stakes races .. both ortiz brothers and luis saez there

Ten4.

Will look again.

[batt33]

You serve and protect

willingly batt.

Right on, fireman can get burned,

fuk that.

How's your dad,

I miss my horse

lover father, I regress.

Stay safe we need U here,

Cal. needs U there.

BOL chief.

Thanks BOA dad is hanging in there....doing better with the stent...

[batt33]

a good card at lone star .. 7 stakes races .. both ortiz brothers and luis saez there

need to look now.. praiven at sa so watching that

[batt33]

aaand since it's memorial day and sports ... NEVER EVER gets old

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1594320831992582

[str]

aaand since it's memorial day and sports ... NEVER EVER gets old
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1594320831992582

This is incredible !

[acquavallo]

Apologies in advance- been away for several years and tried searching to no avail.

1. One of BOL, BAS or Bovada used to allow decimal point bets- you could type .xx - wasn't specifically stated but would work for exotics. I think littlekona once posted this. And maybe this went away with new skin / old skin available for awhile but no more?

2. Some still offer Horse Matchups on big days?

3. For US players no more Lay available- even if only for UK racing?

4. Asian xchanges or others no longer recommended for US players?

TIA

[acquavallo]

str I'm wondering if i hijacked you. Please accept my apologies if i was thinking more like a broke dikk fukk. More importantly, thanks for this heroic, lionesque, Sun Tzu-like masterpiece.
Book forthcoming?

[str]

Apologies in advance- been away for several years and tried searching to no avail.

1. One of BOL, BAS or Bovada used to allow decimal point bets- you could type .xx - wasn't specifically stated but would work for exotics. I think littlekona once posted this. And maybe this went away with new skin / old skin available for awhile but no more?

2. Some still offer Horse Matchups on big days?

3. For US players no more Lay available- even if only for UK racing?

4. Asian xchanges or others no longer recommended for US players?

TIA

I am afraid that I am no help on this subject. However, the readers within here might be able to help you . I am hopeful, that if someone CAN answer you questions, a reader will answer. Please, anyone feel free to respond.

[str]

str I'm wondering if i hijacked you. Please accept my apologies if i was thinking more like a broke dikk fukk. More importantly, thanks for this heroic, lionesque, Sun Tzu-like masterpiece.
Book forthcoming?

No apology necessary sir. This thread was created to help players that enjoy a game I love and lived for about 30 years. I hope someone can help you. I just don't bet very often anymore and have not kept up with todays wagering options.
Most of my attention is towards my company I run, my family I love, and a non profit I am starting to help aid any former racetrack workers who are now too old to continue at the rugged pace needed to perform at the track on a daily basis. That non profit, named Stable Footing, Inc., while now legal but in it's infancy, is to help support all those people that you never heard of that without their work, and sacrifice, there would be no game whatsoever. Hopefully I will have more information on that in the near future.

In the meantime, good luck with your question and if there is anything I can do to help you better understand the game, you know where to find be.

All the best ,

STR

[str]

With a week to go before the Belmont, I want to draw attention to who is running so far. I only see names and I certainly don't know the individuals like I used to, so everyone do check out the early pace. The Derby had a pace collapse and closers finished up in front. The Preakness also had a hot early pace But... No horse made up more than 2-3 lengths all day to win any race on the dirt. So... now we are at the Belmont and the favorites are deep closers. Without a fair pace, they will be very much compromised. Do spend some time on who might be in front early, or very close to a cheap speed and take a long look at those in the forward position. We know who the best horse or horses are . Now try and locate the horse that will benefit most from what looks to be a slow non tiring early pace. Be prepared before the fact and all this will come together well before the actual race.
The best horse doesn't always win. The pace makes most races and the Belmont is no exception.

[JBEX]

army mule going in R9 at churchill..mcl $50k turf route and her 1st time doing both .. #7 debby's gal (6-1) @ 4:55

[JBEX]

army mule going in R9 at churchill..mcl $50k turf route and her 1st time doing both .. #7 debby's gal (6-1) @ 4:55

out [5-1]

another by army mule going in R4 santa anita .. #6 whiz kidd (4-1) @ 5:32 .. statebred mcl $50k

out [7-1]