Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

Gives Taj Mahal a tiny edge ?

The way the track is so far, heck yes. Inside horses have run great. Stalking favorites 3 wide have no gotten home.
Let's keep watching.

[str]

For this race. I have NOT seen the form but have to think the 1 and the 2 are inferior to the favorites. Let's watch and see if an inside trip makes either of these two horses, ( 1 or 2), better today than normal. Or, either favorite that if they are outside runners, don't fire as much.

[BOA12]

The way the track is so far, heck yes. Inside horses have run great. Stalking favorites 3 wide have no gotten home.
Let's keep watching.

Right on.

If it ends 1-12, your first day here

happy birthday for me. LOL

Watching, waiting, working up a hunger.

[str]

The 4 was on the inside ( within 10 feet of the rail) for all of the race. Best horse but was waaay better with the trip. The 6 got over to the rail quickly. I know, they were probably best. Agree. But they destroyed those other horses. It was never in doubt. We will watch some more dirt races but the inside is certainly better from what I have seen so far.
When they run 9 and change at Laurel, hellooo grader.

[str]

Circling and walking AWAY from the gate at 0 minutes to post.

Bush League . Trying to squeeze every dollar out of the windows. I find that sad to see.

[str]

A great day to take notes on who was where doing the majority of the running. Don’t be confused if a horse is on the rail for 50 seconds swings to the three path for the last 20. It’s most time spent in the thinnest cushion that counts.
I hope that makes sense .

[str]

I have not been able to review the charts yet so I’m waiting on that to comment about yesterday. I’ll pass along my thoughts ASAP.

[batt33]

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1642737403613344

What I love about horse racing.... Thank you Donna

[str]

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1642737403613344
What I love about horse racing.... Thank you Donna

Absolutely Batt !!!

It's a family on the backside. We always had each others back.

And speaking of that: The newly created 501-C 3 was accepted and it is called "Stable Footing", Inc. This will be a non profit for all those retired or semi retired Md. backstretch workers who can no long have a license because of health, age, etc. This forgotten group of people worked on the track in the 70's, 80's, and 90's either before or just as the backstretch pension fund came into existence. They missed out on benefits for the elderly.
This foundation will make sure that anyone that is in need of help, education, compassion, friendship, or whatever they need, will have an opportunity to have it. It will be funded through donations or loans that are FDIC protected and reimbursable upon request. Only the interest earned will be used. That allows those that might have some amount they would like to invest but get back whenever it was requested will be able to do so .

For all of those people that gave so much to the horses, backside, and anyone or anything in need while they worked there, we have not forgotten you. We are all one big family looking out for one another just like it was on all those years ago.

I will have more details on this soon.

Thank you.

[batt33]

Absolutely Batt !!!

It's a family on the backside. We always had each others back.

And speaking of that: The newly created 501-C 3 was accepted and it is called "Stable Footing", Inc. This will be a non profit for all those retired or semi retired Md. backstretch workers who can no long have a license because of health, age, etc. This forgotten group of people worked on the track in the 70's, 80's, and 90's either before or just as the backstretch pension fund came into existence. They missed out on benefits for the elderly.
This foundation will make sure that anyone that is in need of help, education, compassion, friendship, or whatever they need, will have an opportunity to have it. It will be funded through donations or loans that are FDIC protected and reimbursable upon request. Only the interest earned will be used. That allows those that might have some amount they would like to invest but get back whenever it was requested will be able to do so .

For all of those people that gave so much to the horses, backside, and anyone or anything in need while they worked there, we have not forgotten you. We are all one big family looking out for one another just like it was on all those years ago.

I will have more details on this soon.

Thank you.

That is awesome!

[str]

A quick update as to the charts. No winner made up more than 2 1/2 lengths all day on the dirt. No winner was ever further than the 3 path, and in those cases, only for a portion of the time . Speed , forward position and inside trips dominated the card. If anyone thinks that is in error, please tell me. I did this quickly. But, that is exactly what I saw early, and it did not change.
Make of that what you will. If I was still active, that was a three star day for notes and play ons and play agonists next out.
Hope that helps.

[Pigpen]

A quick update as to the charts. No winner made up more than 2 1/2 lengths all day on the dirt. No winner was ever further than the 3 path, and in those cases, only for a portion of the time . Speed , forward position and inside trips dominated the card. If anyone thinks that is in error, please tell me. I did this quickly. But, that is exactly what I saw early, and it did not change.
Make of that what you will. If I was still active, that was a three star day for notes and play ons and play agonists next out.
Hope that helps.

This thread needs to be in the SBR hall of fame. Great contributions.

[JBEX]

Absolutely Batt !!!

It's a family on the backside. We always had each others back.

And speaking of that: The newly created 501-C 3 was accepted and it is called "Stable Footing", Inc. This will be a non profit for all those retired or semi retired Md. backstretch workers who can no long have a license because of health, age, etc. This forgotten group of people worked on the track in the 70's, 80's, and 90's either before or just as the backstretch pension fund came into existence. They missed out on benefits for the elderly.
This foundation will make sure that anyone that is in need of help, education, compassion, friendship, or whatever they need, will have an opportunity to have it. It will be funded through donations or loans that are FDIC protected and reimbursable upon request. Only the interest earned will be used. That allows those that might have some amount they would like to invest but get back whenever it was requested will be able to do so .

For all of those people that gave so much to the horses, backside, and anyone or anything in need while they worked there, we have not forgotten you. We are all one big family looking out for one another just like it was on all those years ago.

I will have more details on this soon.

Thank you.

congratulations str .. glad this all came together for you and sure it'll help many people

[str]

This thread needs to be in the SBR hall of fame. Great contributions.

Thanks Pigpen.

Back in my time, it was right there for me to see everyday. Nobody understood biases back then except for one trainer. I never knew this guy, and to be honest , he was kind of weird, but you guys know his name. Michael Dickenson. He was a young at the time but older than me, Middleburg Va. guy, then up in Fair Hill Md. Kind of an odd fellow, but He had my total respect. He understood biases. And while I first recognized them at Bowie on a Saturday, and only because the lady in the next box down said to me as I was walking down to saddle my horse who on paper had very little chance in the last race that day, Good Luck Scott. Think I said, I'll need it in here. And she said, well, the one post has won 6 out of the 8 races so far and you have the one horse . That was late 70's I think. I could look it up though, as my horse stayed on the fence, and won and paid 20 something bucks. Here is what I knew. I was just hoping for a miracle. She was in over her head and the owner wanted to breed her so he did not want me to drop her down. Just kind of playing out the string. She wins with a rail trip and the old lightbulb went off. Hello Mr. bias !
From that day on, I watched and paid attention to something I saw everyday but never paid any mind too and put it all together.
Winters at Bowie always had a lot of cushion needed to combat freezing. That depth became an everyday measure for me. Not only did I start to understand there was a bias, and yes, my favorite writer, Andy Beyer had been mentioning it, but he did not know the how's and whys of it. Just that it existed. I learned the how's and whys. By accident. Only because that lady mentioned it, my horse won, I knew there was no way my horse was capable of that without help, and it just fell into place.
Hall Of Fame trainers did not know about this. Sure, they saw it, but could not say why it existed.
I forget that ladies name, she was friends with my mom who sat in the next box over. She was just a fan but SHE lit the light that I saw. How cool is that !

[str]

Another thing that needed mentioning.

Q. Who was the youngest horse in the Preakness? There were three February foals.

Napoleon Solo Feb. 17th
Crupper Feb. 25th
Ocelli Feb 27th

First two legs won by the oldest horse in each 3 yr. old race
HMMMM.
Make of that what you will.

[JBEX]

Another thing that needed mentioning.

Q. Who was the youngest horse in the Preakness? There were three February foals.

Napoleon Solo Feb. 17th
Crupper Feb. 25th
Ocelli Feb 27th

First two legs won by the oldest horse in each 3 yr. old race
HMMMM.
Make of that what you will.

i think there's something to it factoring the odds .. have to pay attention to the belmont and travers

[JBEX]

also worth noting napoleon solo is by liam's map who's the sire of deterministic.. very versatile sire to get a multiple grade 1 stakes horse on the turf and also a 3yo classic winner on the dirt

[JBEX]

the inside bias might've been why paco went to the rail with napoleon solo at the 3/16th's pole .. factoring a bias that was a nice effort by iron honor to stay close with him to the wire

[str]

the inside bias might've been why paco went to the rail with napoleon solo at the 3/16th's pole .. factoring a bias that was a nice effort by iron honor to stay close with him to the wire

It could have been. I don't know if the riders could actually feel it or not. That was him being smart if he knew, or looking smart and he didn't. Can't argue with it right?

[Pigpen]

also worth noting napoleon solo is by liam's map who's the sire of deterministic.. very versatile sire to get a multiple grade 1 stakes horse on the turf and also a 3yo classic winner on the dirt

Liam's Map is on my radar. He is has produced some nice runners of late. Also, I too like to look at the date these animals are born. These 2 and 3 year old horses develop fast. Big difference in a January and May foaling.

[JBEX]

Liam's Map is on my radar. He is has produced some nice runners of late. Also, I too like to look at the date these animals are born. These 2 and 3 year old horses develop fast. Big difference in a January and May foaling.

yes you would think it could have meaning for 2yo races also and my thought would be graded stakes .. new challenges of facing higher quality company and going longer distances be a good time to consider it .. sure you could apply it more broadly but I'm trying to focus on spots where the effect might be magnified;they've exhibited a degree of talent already

[JBEX]

watching the preakness stretch call again it looked like iron honor switched back to his left lead about 100 yards from the sixteenth pole (bore in) and back to his right lead about the same distance from the wire .. that (if true) would mean he was on the left lead for about a half furlong in the stretch

[JBEX]

It could have been. I don't know if the riders could actually feel it or not. That was him being smart if he knew, or looking smart and he didn't. Can't argue with it right?

wouldn't make any sense to do it otherwise .. positionally it's better for the lead horse off the rail so it's more likely the horse behind you might have to shift paths to get by and you'd rather them try that on the inside if they have to .. I think it's more evidence to what you've been saying that the inside was the place to be

[str]

yes you would think it could have meaning for 2yo races also and my thought would be graded stakes .. new challenges of facing higher quality company and going longer distances be a good time to consider it .. sure you could apply it more broadly but I'm trying to focus on spots where the effect might be magnified;they've exhibited a degree of talent already

They sure have.

[str]

wouldn't make any sense to do it otherwise .. positionally it's better for the lead horse off the rail so it's more likely the horse behind you might have to shift paths to get by and you'd rather them try that on the inside if they have to .. I think it's more evidence to what you've been saying that the inside was the place to be

I'll watch the stretch run again and see if I see something. Didn't pay that much attention to it originally. I'll let you know what I see.

[str]

I'll watch the stretch run again and see if I see something. Didn't pay that much attention to it originally. I'll let you know what I see.

Napoleon Solo stayed on his correct lead, the right lead all the way through the stretch. The reason for the slightly erratic running was Paco , and although kind of typical as we can see this in plenty of ordinary races, a race of this magnitude allows people to really see how the sausage is made behind the scenes.
Here is what happened:

Jockey Lopez looks to his inside as they go past the red and white 1/4 pole. He looks inside and sees the 1 horse is dead. He looks outside and sees two horses coming so he makes it just a little bit harder for them by angling out some. Perfectly legal and very smart of Lopez. That is 1:41 on the replay clock. If you freeze it at 1:41 on the clock, you can see the inside horse of the two outside rallying, have to check ever so slightly. That could be from the dirt flying back all of the sudden or the rider deciding that his hole will close and he needs to swing towards the rail which is wide open.
That move makes both closing riders have to adjust their paths which could and did help slow momentum somewhat for a few strides. Then, 2 seconds later at 1:47 Paco starts to realize that he has made the closer in Orange move inside because he took position away from him by sliding out at 1:45. So, Paco, still well clear , and seeing that the now inside horse who was outside a couple of seconds ago is rallying harder than the far outside horse. Paco, still well clear of both, decides to take one of them away. He chooses the inside horse who has a bit more momentum. So, he angles inside to throw dirt in that horses face again and make life difficult and if that horse is going to go inside he will have to squeeze through. Freeze it at 1:47 and there is Paco looking inside at the closer coming.

After doing that, his horse keeps drifting in to the fence, most likely starting to get a little tired and Paco at 1:54 if you freeze it there, pulls his hands way outward to reset the bit and get his horses full attention back for a few more seconds. He makes the horse forget about tired for a second and refocus on winning.
The horse digs in and Paco plays his last card in his hand. He hits the horse right handed one time with a full strike from above his head. ( Yeah, I know, PETA ), and the horse momentarily kicks on as a response to that. That is all it took. He got his horse to forget tired and wobbly for about 4 more strides. By then, it was over.

That was a master class from a veteran rider riding as good a race as he ever has. He will pay the fine. He will take the heat. The sad reality is that people don't actually see all that goes on when a team of people and a horse, put all the effort possible into something in order to make history.
So, was it worth it? Of course. Did Paco really think of all this stuff over those 24 seconds. Absolutely ! This is the stuff most of us do not see in world class events.
In the iconic Super bowl many years ago, we see the play ( The Catch), and see what we see. But what we don't see is the right tackle slide of his 1st assignment and make another play that nobody sees so Montana gets that extra second and can throw the ball in a spot they have practiced all year for that one moment when he throws it intentionally high to Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone because that play was worked on all that year for a moment when Clark would be the only person tall enough to catch it. Google that sometime and you will see the story behind it all. It's incredible.

I feel so fortunate to have been involved with a sport to such a degree that I can understand this stuff. Professional anything means, the top of the top and seeing everything. I wish I could see it in pro football but I just cant to the degree I wish I could. I was blessed with the opportunity I had to learn from one of the greatest claiming trainers in the world, and get the chance to try my best to make all those decisions that are made daily. I get goosebumps watching races like the one Paco rode and breaking it down for everybody. I hope you folks enjoy it. For me, it's part of what life is all about.

[JBEX]

Napoleon Solo stayed on his correct lead, the right lead all the way through the stretch. The reason for the slightly erratic running was Paco , and although kind of typical as we can see this in plenty of ordinary races, a race of this magnitude allows people to really see how the sausage is made behind the scenes.
Here is what happened:

Jockey Lopez looks to his inside as they go past the red and white 1/4 pole. He looks inside and sees the 1 horse is dead. He looks outside and sees two horses coming so he makes it just a little bit harder for them by angling out some. Perfectly legal and very smart of Lopez. That is 1:41 on the replay clock. If you freeze it at 1:41 on the clock, you can see the inside horse of the two outside rallying, have to check ever so slightly. That could be from the dirt flying back all of the sudden or the rider deciding that his hole will close and he needs to swing towards the rail which is wide open.
That move makes both closing riders have to adjust their paths which could and did help slow momentum somewhat for a few strides. Then, 2 seconds later at 1:47 Paco starts to realize that he has made the closer in Orange move inside because he took position away from him by sliding out at 1:45. So, Paco, still well clear , and seeing that the now inside horse who was outside a couple of seconds ago is rallying harder than the far outside horse. Paco, still well clear of both, decides to take one of them away. He chooses the inside horse who has a bit more momentum. So, he angles inside to throw dirt in that horses face again and make life difficult and if that horse is going to go inside he will have to squeeze through. Freeze it at 1:47 and there is Paco looking inside at the closer coming.

After doing that, his horse keeps drifting in to the fence, most likely starting to get a little tired and Paco at 1:54 if you freeze it there, pulls his hands way outward to reset the bit and get his horses full attention back for a few more seconds. He makes the horse forget about tired for a second and refocus on winning.
The horse digs in and Paco plays his last card in his hand. He hits the horse right handed one time with a full strike from above his head. ( Yeah, I know, PETA ), and the horse momentarily kicks on as a response to that. That is all it took. He got his horse to forget tired and wobbly for about 4 more strides. By then, it was over.

That was a master class from a veteran rider riding as good a race as he ever has. He will pay the fine. He will take the heat. The sad reality is that people don't actually see all that goes on when a team of people and a horse, put all the effort possible into something in order to make history.
So, was it worth it? Of course. Did Paco really think of all this stuff over those 24 seconds. Absolutely ! This is the stuff most of us do not see in world class events.
In the iconic Super bowl many years ago, we see the play ( The Catch), and see what we see. But what we don't see is the right tackle slide of his 1st assignment and make another play that nobody sees so Montana gets that extra second and can throw the ball in a spot they have practiced all year for that one moment when he throws it intentionally high to Dwight Clark in the back of the end zone because that play was worked on all that year for a moment when Clark would be the only person tall enough to catch it. Google that sometime and you will see the story behind it all. It's incredible.

I feel so fortunate to have been involved with a sport to such a degree that I can understand this stuff. Professional anything means, the top of the top and seeing everything. I wish I could see it in pro football but I just cant to the degree I wish I could. I was blessed with the opportunity I had to learn from one of the greatest claiming trainers in the world, and get the chance to try my best to make all those decisions that are made daily. I get goosebumps watching races like the one Paco rode and breaking it down for everybody. I hope you folks enjoy it. For me, it's part of what life is all about.

great description of that key part of the race str and seems like the longtime, veteran jock made some smart decisions with NS for sure ..Nice that a solid jock like him finally notches a triple crown race win

I think as you pointed out to me that iron honor may have gone to his left lead due to tire tracks
.. when he switched back (guessing about 50 yards from the wire)he seemed to finish with a lot of energy ..combine that with being off the rail as a disadvantage(maybe both cost him 2 or 3 lengths total in the race) and it was a real solid effort by him ..other than it being run at saratoga the belmont stakes should be a nice race this year

[JBEX]

an army mule goes in churchill R2 friday.. #7 bit tipsy (12-1) 1:14

exits an extremely fast 4.5 f msw on the slop where she finished 4th of 11..his progeny have run well on the turf and she might get lost a bit in the betting
in this field .. these are the best 2yo msw races currently running offering a stakes level purse of $120k

[str]

an army mule goes in churchill R2 friday.. #7 bit tipsy (12-1) 1:14

exits an extremely fast 4.5 f msw on the slop where she finished 4th of 11..his progeny have run well on the turf and she might get lost a bit in the betting
in this field .. these are the best 2yo msw races currently running offering a stakes level purse of $120k

It is never a wise move to allow an Army Mule to get lost in any race. There might be some in there with as much will to compete as AM's have, but no horse will have more.

[str]

great description of that key part of the race str and seems like the longtime, veteran jock made some smart decisions with NS for sure ..Nice that a solid jock like him finally notches a triple crown race win

I think as you pointed out to me that iron honor may have gone to his left lead due to tire tracks
.. when he switched back (guessing about 50 yards from the wire)he seemed to finish with a lot of energy ..combine that with being off the rail as a disadvantage(maybe both cost him 2 or 3 lengths total in the race) and it was a real solid effort by him ..other than it being run at saratoga the belmont stakes should be a nice race this year

When a horse switches leads back and forth, their mind is not where you want it to be. If they are thinking about anything but competing, they are not at their absolute best for that period of time.

Probably fair to add that into his effort knowing his mind was wandering a bit that last part of the race. Only adds to the overall ability he displayed IMO.

[JBEX]

an army mule goes in churchill R2 friday.. #7 bit tipsy (12-1) 1:14

exits an extremely fast 4.5 f msw on the slop where she finished 4th of 11..his progeny have run well on the turf and she might get lost a bit in the betting
in this field .. these are the best 2yo msw races currently running offering a stakes level purse of $120k

It is never a wise move to allow an Army Mule to get lost in any race. There might be some in there with as much will to compete as AM's have, but no horse will have more.

think it's going to be sloppy there and pretty sure off his debut they'd run him in it today .. will keep posted when they put up the scratches

[JBEX]

When a horse switches leads back and forth, their mind is not where you want it to be. If they are thinking about anything but competing, they are not at their absolute best for that period of time.

Probably fair to add that into his effort knowing his mind was wandering a bit that last part of the race. Only adds to the overall ability he displayed IMO.

interesting and worthwhile thing to know going forward for him and in general

[JBEX]

think it's going to be sloppy there and pretty sure off his debut they'd run him in it today .. will keep posted when they put up the scratches

wrong .. she (not him) is scratched..maybe they don't want a 2yo running twice in the slop to start her career

[JBEX]

good time to mention there is a horse in R3 at churchill "army officer" .. this one isn't by army mule

[JBEX]

wrong .. she (not him) is scratched..maybe they don't want a 2yo running twice in the slop to start her career

do you think that could be the case str ... maybe throw a baby off with two starts on it to begin it's career ?