Horse Racing questions and answers

[BOA12]

Haven’t had time to watch CD this week, can anyone tell me how the track has been playing? Thanks.

Been playing me jelly.

.
Maybe J or $bill might have a better insight.

[str]

So I put the race together as a best guess scenario. Nobody knows what will actually happen. And it only means something now because when the gates open, it is what it is. Which horses catch a flyer, or are left flat footed, cannot be predicted except for the last couple to load most likely would break better than then first few to load and have to wait a couple minutes to break. But again, a total guess. And because of that, I always do this for a race I am considering betting so as to identify big speed duels, solo speed, etc. But in this cavalry charge to the 1st turn, no way to predict much of anything with certainty.
As a result, I look at this pace scenario for THIS race, wanting to be comfortable with the first and 2nd quarter splits. 45 and change will most likely hand the race over to closers. 46 and change will allow more horses to have a legit shot. 47 and change will make life really tough for the 6 or 9 horses in the back early, and 48 and change would be optimal for the front 6 or 7 horses. In the Derby, it's usually 46 and change or quicker but it is still uncertain.
( Back in the 80's I think, there was an owner who ran a horse in the Derby every year just to see his colors, red and gold, be in front going into the 1st turn. And they were. But that horse was always in the back through the stretch. Some people with money are friggin CRAZY. )

For this running I do see an honest pace (hope I'm right). Forty six and change I would assume. For who I will land on, the faster the better but... that can cut both ways.

I will go through this race one more time with no prejudice tomorrow but as of now, actually the first time through, Renegade looks too me as though he is superior to this group. I cannot identify a horse that is better or, as good. Of course the trip, pace, luck, etc. will all play a huge role in who wins.
Only one other horse has finished within 5 lengths through the last 1/8th of a mile as he did in his last race and that horse was within a 1/2 length at the 1/8th pole and drew off late. That is more about the other horse backing up than it is about the winner I think. And... that was at Colonial which I have not stepped foot in for the last 26 years but it was notorious for being a speed favoring ,especially through the last 1/8th of a mile, track back then. No clue about now.

Because I have not given much attention to these races building up to tomorrow, I will listen to the talking heads I respect and see what they are saying. That will educate me some more but I doubt it would change my mind. But... maybe. You never know.

I do think if this was a 10 horse field and all things were equal, Renegade would be 6-5. I also think being the oldest horse by a decent margin to most, is very significant in the Derby. And, Irad is as good as they come.

Looking forward and trying to gauge value, if Renegade wins, I assume he would be 4-5 for the Preakness, if he runs, and the same or less in the Belmont assuming he wins in Baltimore. Not sure who or what beats him.

Now if he was 2-1 , no way I play him. No value for all that can go wrong. But when you give me 5-1 on a horse that runs 5 or more lengths faster than any horse in the race going the last 1/8th, I will play that horse.
My math tells me that if he ran in this race 6 times, he would win twice with a chance to win more than that which factors all the things that can go against him. Maybe more, but twice with all things considered. That is 3-1. I get 5-1. For me, that is worth a play.

He is the oldest horse, the fastest horse the last 1/8th by 4-5 lengths at least, has the top rider on him, and should save as much ground as the trip allows.

Hate to land on the favorite but 5-1 doesn't really feel like a favorite. And going into tomorrow, I do not see anyone better or even as good, on paper.

[str]

Haven’t had time to watch CD this week, can anyone tell me how the track has been playing? Thanks.

With seemingly a clear forecast for today and tomorrow, the track should be exactly the way they want it to be. I have not been looking either but have to assume it will be fast and fair. Sure hope so.

[batt33]

Haven’t had time to watch CD this week, can anyone tell me how the track has been playing? Thanks.

I haven't been paying that much attention ..sorry

[Jellymancan]

Thanks for the feedback, guys.

[JBEX]

5 deterministic (6-5) makes his 5 yo debut in the fort marcy stakes (grade 3) @ aqueduct R4 (2:28)

as most know this is a long time follow for str and me

[str]

The Puma is a late scratch.

[BOA12]

The Puma is a late scratch.

Track side or yard side 2 day ?

[JBEX]

paige turner (army mule) finished 2nd [6-5] in allowance at churchill yesterday. .$127k oaks undercard so you know that's a tough race

active day for horses by him at major tracks including R14 at churchill 9 big jake (8-1)..oaklawn races 10 and 11 .. 10 razorback army (20-1) and 10 master mule (5-2)

[str]

Track side or yard side 2 day ?

It’s a home game for me today. Couldn’t get All the guys together. Obviously will skip the Preakness zoo but we are all trying to make the Belmont happen.

[BOA12]

paige turner (army mule) finished 2nd [6-5] in allowance at churchill yesterday. .$127k oaks undercard so you know that's a tough race

active day for horses by him at major tracks including R14 at churchill 9 big jake (8-1)..oaklawn 10 and 11 .10 razorback army (20-1) and 10 master mule (5-2)

Pigpen & known associates

razorback army

i'm on it.

Go J Go

[str]

In my final look, I am finding it difficult to be a worthy exercise. Narrow minded is never good when handicapping. But I find myself there. I just do not see any horse who can outperform Renegade on paper. His final 1/8th mile time is 4-5 lengths faster than everyone else. In doing that, we was running hard but not fully asked. A repeat of that should win this race all day long. So it comes down, IMO, to racing luck if everyone runs what I can see as their anticipated race. Nothing you can do about bad racing luck but you have one of the very best on him trying to avoid that.
I am concerned that the perceived 5-1, now 4-1 and with the latest scratch most likely 7-2 or 3-1, the value is declining rapidly. That does not change my mind but it does change the betting angle.
I will not bet against him. He is well ahead of these horses on paper IMO. Without trouble I feel this horse has Triple Crown ability but will need pace to achieve that. That’s the tough thing about closers.

Hope everyone enjoys the race.

[JBEX]

Pigpen & known associates

razorback army

i'm on it.

Go J Go

he's a speed horse and there's not a lot of it in there .. the 9-5 favorite is the main one and RA breaking outside of him so nice edge positionally

[stevenash]

Beyer says Further Ado all day.

[BOA12]

It’s a home game for me today. Couldn’t get All the guys together. Obviously will skip the Preakness zoo but we are all trying to make the Belmont happen.

I hear you're tough at home.

My first choice was #1,

being butt stubborn researched more

and chose #6.

I'd Be Happy 1-6.

Yard bound with hounds

hope all your need want and desires are met today my friend.

[str]

Beyer says Further Ado all day.

Yeah, I get it. He lives and dies on his figures. No question he is one of the top horses and looks to get a nice stalking trip fairly close up.
I don’t get how he runs 12 4/5s for the last 1/8th and earns a 106? In His race he went the last 3/8ths in 36 2/5ths
Renegade went 36 2/5ths from 7th with the last 1/8th in 11 4/5ths. And not all out . The Puma would pick Renegade as the Puma beat Further Ado but Renegade owned him.
Further Ado has about the best post he could have drawn for his style of running. Renegade has a lot of work to do with the 1 hole.
if Andy is right, he shines with his figures. If he loses, he blames the bounce.

I also have a history with Andy being in Md. my entire career. We are really different people. While I do respect his work with handicapping very much, I enjoy beating his opinions a lot. It’s friendly but… only somewhat. I have never cared for arrogance.

Good Luck Nasher !!!

[JBEX]

Yeah, I get it. He lives and dies on his figures. No question he is one of the top horses and looks to get a nice stalking trip fairly close up.
I don’t get how he runs 12 4/5s for the last 1/8th and earns a 106? In His race he went the last 3/8ths in 36 2/5ths
Renegade went 36 2/5ths from 7th with the last 1/8th in 11 4/5ths. And not all out . The Puma would pick Renegade as the Puma beat Further Ado but Renegade owned him.
Further Ado has about the best post he could have drawn for his style of running. Renegade has a lot of work to do with the 1 hole.
if Andy is right, he shines with his figures. If he loses, he blames the bounce.

I also have a history with Andy being in Md. my entire career. We are really different people. While I do respect his work with handicapping very much, I enjoy beating his opinions a lot. It’s friendly but… only somewhat. I have never cared for arrogance.

Good Luck Nasher !!!

little interesting to me that both of his keeneland races were freaky good .. made just a coincidence but does stick out in the pp's

[batt33]

5 deterministic (6-5) makes his 5 yo debut in the fort marcy stakes (grade 3) @ aqueduct R4 (2:28)

as most know this is a long time follow for str and me

Nice race!

[JBEX]

Nice race!

yeah he looked good batt .. not my expertise at all but he seems to be an easy mover so to speak .. really fluid and efficient stride

[JBEX]

hey str

posted a link for the '86 derby in my thread (last post previous page) .. ferdinand the last horse to break from the rail to win the derby .. commented that shoemaker had him towards the outside of the pack coming out of the far turn but darted to the inside winning it coming up the rail ..do you have to be an athletic horse with a quick turn-of-foot to do something like that ?

[JBEX]

hey str

posted a link for the '86 derby in my thread (last post previous page) .. ferdinand the last horse to break from the rail to win the derby .. commented that shoemaker had him towards the outside of the pack coming out of the far turn but darted to the inside winning it coming up the rail ..do you have to be an athletic horse with a quick turn-of-foot to do something like that ?

maybe "another gear" is the right term .. have made this mistake before

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two token bets:

$2: 6 Comm - to Show
...I like playing the Favorite to hit the board in this race.

$2: 8 Emerg Mkt - to Win
...Might be a bias against the "3rd-time starter."

[str]

hey str

posted a link for the '86 derby in my thread (last post previous page) .. ferdinand the last horse to break from the rail to win the derby .. commented that shoemaker had him towards the outside of the pack coming out of the far turn but darted to the inside winning it coming up the rail ..do you have to be an athletic horse with a quick turn-of-foot to do something like that ?

Absolutely!! I remember that move. He found a spot towards the inside a second before he would have had to commit to 6 wide. Extremely athletic move especially for a three year old in May.

[str]

maybe "another gear" is the right term .. have made this mistake before

Another gear for sure. Push Button as well. Gotta be very athletic and not gauky to be able to do that.

[str]

Two token bets:

$2: 6 Comm - to Show
...I like playing the Favorite to hit the board in this race.

$2: 8 Emerg Mkt - to Win
...Might be a bias against the "3rd-time starter."

GL Chucky. Thanks for checking in.

[str]

yeah he looked good batt .. not my expertise at all but he seems to be an easy mover so to speak .. really fluid and efficient stride

Can’t begin to tell you how important that effort was in relation to the confidence that it will convey to the trainer. He is officially not “ Clements son” anymore. He’s a force from here out .
so happy for the family. His dad would be thrilled!!!

[str]

little interesting to me that both of his keeneland races were freaky good .. made just a coincidence but does stick out in the pp's

It sure does. File that away for another day JBEX.

[Snowball]

here's where i'm at right now
disregard the 9 he's scr.
combination of serious and lotto plays
strongest opinion is the 19.

r11
db 6/18
db 7,10/6,12,19
db 10/6,7,12,18,19

r12
wn 15,19,17,2,11
pl 19
sh 19,10,22,17
ex 6/2,18
ex 11/19,22
exb 6,9,19
exb 16,18,19
exb 5,7,8
exb 4,10
exb 4,11
exb 7,15
exb 2,21
tr 11/18/6,19
tr 18/9,17/9,17
tr 6,7/6,7/1,8,12,19
tr 19/18/1,6,8,10
su 6,12/6,12/3,10/3,10
su 5,16/5,16/7,8/7,8
shf 3/21/9/1/14
shf 18/4/19/12/11
j8 18/4/19/12/11/1/21/8
j8 19,18,8,6,1,12,14,10

r13
wsh 10
db 10/3,7,8,9

r14
wn 9,10,12
sh 7

[str]

here's where i'm at right now
disregard the 9 he's scr.
combination of serious and lotto plays
strongest opinion is the 19.

r11
db 6/18
db 7,10/6,12,19
db 10/6,7,12,18,19

r12
wn 15,19,17,2,11
pl 19
sh 19,10,22,17
ex 6/2,18
ex 11/19,22
exb 6,9,19
exb 16,18,19
exb 5,7,8
exb 4,10
exb 4,11
exb 7,15
exb 2,21
tr 11/18/6,19
tr 18/9,17/9,17
tr 6,7/6,7/1,8,12,19
tr 19/18/1,6,8,10
su 6,12/6,12/3,10/3,10
su 5,16/5,16/7,8/7,8
shf 3/21/9/1/14
shf 18/4/19/12/11
j8 18/4/19/12/11/1/21/8
j8 19,18,8,6,1,12,14,10

r13
wsh 10
db 10/3,7,8,9

r14
wn 9,10,12
sh 7

GL Snowball. Anything can happen. Thanks for checking in.

[JBEX]

It sure does. File that away for another day JBEX.

yeah but probably more useful here as possibly a bit of a downgrade (not eliminator) for the derby today .. sure he'll be back there for the fall meet or possibly the breeders cup mile or classic

be a fun time in the fall with the bc at kee (vs out west) and belmont park kicking off it's first meet

[JBEX]

Another gear for sure. Push Button as well. Gotta be very athletic and not gauky to be able to do that.

I've heard that before (maybe from you) .. like that description

[Snowball]

GL Snowball. Anything can happen. Thanks for checking in.

yw. I just added a few more. really didn't want Rhetorical to win, all I got from him was a dbl carry to r12 on the 18.
this is a wide-open race. i hit a cold pick 6 at Tampa last week. all 6 singles.
good luck. even though it feels unnatural to fight the discipline, the pools demand taking some wild shots.

[JBEX]

Can’t begin to tell you how important that effort was in relation to the confidence that it will convey to the trainer. He is officially not “ Clements son” anymore. He’s a force from here out .
so happy for the family. His dad would be thrilled!!!

I would guess that's a high pressure spot with a horse of that caliber off a long layoff..can see that giving him a real confidence boost going forward


assuming they might be pointing for mile races down the road you think going 9f today like he did on the front is a good conditioner to cut back a furlong ?

[str]

I would guess that's a high pressure spot with a horse of that caliber off a long layoff..can see that giving him a real confidence boost going forward


assuming they might be pointing for mile races down the road you think going 9f today like he did on the front is a good conditioner to cut back a furlong ?

An inner confidence that everyone needs to earn. Scratching and running back on his timeline gives him exactly that.

[str]

Hats off to the winner. I thought we were all but home at the 1/4 pole. The winner ran great. Renegade ran super. No excuses. 2nd best today.
Oh, has Andy’s horse , Further Ado finished yet?? I know, he bounced. lolol.
I don’t usually get like that but Andy started it. Andy, You pick them and we will train them.