Horse Racing questions and answers

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  • str
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-12-09
    • 12030

    #11586
    Originally posted by JBEX
    hey str

    do you feel the race a horse had prior to a win can have an effect on it repeating ?

    an even run or slow fade vs better (faster) company might propel a horse more than a win or competitive effort in the race prior to the win .. along the lines that there might be more of a tightening effect that carries forward exiting the faster race vs a good finish in the slower one .. like winning via feeling the relief of the class drop might be more likely to carryover for one more race
    Really important question for me to try and relay my thoughts correctly without screwing it up. So I think I might approach this question by breaking it down. Because there are so many scenarios to that last win, I really do not want to type something that is not fully explained.
    Let me figure out how to break this down into shorter responses over several posts instead of one long rambling mess which I would otherwise end up typing.

    The early answer is it depends on too many scenarios when you talk about the race BEFORE the win to give one answer. I will try and put together a few scenarios over a few different answers. This one will keep me busy for a while. Lol.
    I'll be back to start ASAP. Thanks JBEX.
    Comment
    • JBEX
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 24562

      #11587
      Originally posted by str

      Really important question for me to try and relay my thoughts correctly without screwing it up. So I think I might approach this question by breaking it down. Because there are so many scenarios to that last win, I really do not want to type something that is not fully explained.
      Let me figure out how to break this down into shorter responses over several posts instead of one long rambling mess which I would otherwise end up typing.

      The early answer is it depends on too many scenarios when you talk about the race BEFORE the win to give one answer. I will try and put together a few scenarios over a few different answers. This one will keep me busy for a while. Lol.
      I'll be back to start ASAP. Thanks JBEX.
      apologize if I opened up a can of worms str lol ..no need to bother if you'd rather not and it makes sense to me that it's not a straightforward one size fits all answer .. I will (not right now) give you one example that I like and set parameters for variables like time in-between,distance and class..
      appreciate you offering to do it either way

      Comment
      • str
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-12-09
        • 12030

        #11588
        Originally posted by JBEX

        apologize if I opened up a can of worms str lol ..no need to bother if you'd rather not and it makes sense to me that it's not a straightforward one size fits all answer .. I will (not right now) give you one example that I like and set parameters for variables like time in-between,distance and class..
        appreciate you offering to do it either way
        Its a wide ranging question for sure. I like it though. What I will explain is how I saw and see different scenarios. It m ight make sense or not really register with everyone. That's fine. Certainly more than one way to handicap. But if people wanted to see how I made certain judgements about things, if that helps, I'm all for it. This entire thread has been about helping people see from other directions what others ( me) ,(I) saw. I hope it helps.
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 24562

          #11589
          Originally posted by str

          Its a wide ranging question for sure. I like it though. What I will explain is how I saw and see different scenarios. It m ight make sense or not really register with everyone. That's fine. Certainly more than one way to handicap. But if people wanted to see how I made certain judgements about things, if that helps, I'm all for it. This entire thread has been about helping people see from other directions what others ( me) ,(I) saw. I hope it helps.
          look forward to see how you view this or maybe more accurately different types of scenarios involving this situation .. I will hold off on my example for now so we can focus on what you have to say about it
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 24562

            #11590
            deterministic ( R9 , #10 , 5-1 ) is scheduled to make his 5yo debut in the maker's mark mile (grade 1) at keeneland on Friday .. the favorite is last year's breeders cup mile winner
            Comment
            • Optional
              Administrator
              • 06-10-10
              • 64028

              #11591
              Awful jockey accident in Australia today

              "Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

              .
              Comment
              • JBEX
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-02-12
                • 24562

                #11592
                Originally posted by JBEX
                deterministic ( R9 , #10 , 5-1 ) is scheduled to make his 5yo debut in the maker's mark mile (grade 1) at keeneland on Friday .. the favorite is last year's breeders cup mile winner
                about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed

                Comment
                • batt33
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-23-16
                  • 6260

                  #11593
                  Originally posted by JBEX

                  about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed
                  That is strange at first glance with all the scratches I thought it was weather related.
                  Comment
                  • batt33
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-23-16
                    • 6260

                    #11594
                    Originally posted by str

                    Honestly, I have no problem with the race at all. I saw enough to know that he will win. He got very tired. Makes sense. All that kickback from a wet track? Never happened to him before most likely. He was understandably confused and burned a ton of energy from the gate to the 5/8ths pole, finally took a breath, actually responded for about 6 jumps when asked but was clearly out of gas and leg weary at the 3/8ths pole area.
                    So what now? He needs to pick himself up, and he will, work a bit behind some horses and learn to split them or go by and finish up NOT out of air. Once he gets the hang of that, he will be ready to run back where he will improve. Of course Mike knows all of this.
                    He will be just fine, and now the expectations are low. Perfect time to get better. No pressure.
                    Munny problem is making his second start at STR's Stomping grounds
                    Munny Problem: Entered



                    Munny Problem has been entered to run on Sunday, Apr. 12 in race 9 at Laurel Park. Your colt will break from post 3 of 7 with Mychel Sanchez aboard. Trainer Michael Trombetta saw that this option in the condition book seemed to be coming up a tad light and opted to enter your son of Munnings in this three-and-up, two-turn turf maiden special weight event. We will be back in the coming days with a closer look at the race.

                    Munny Problem: Race Overview



                    Munny Problem is set to make his second career start in race 9 on Sunday, Apr. 12 at Laurel Park. He will break from post 3 in a 7-horse field with Mychel Sanchez in the irons. Post time will be at 3:51 p.m. ET.

                    Your son of Munnings has posted two fast works at Fair Hill since he shipped north from Florida and seems to be doing very well coming into this start. In his debut, he was a bit tardy out of the gate and was hung out very wide throughout, making the task of debuting around two turns that much more difficult. Though her will face older horses for the first time, he will have a nice weight allowance and we expect a much-improved effort from him with a race under his belt.

                    the competition:

                    #1 Rosie’s Word: Missed by a head for the $30K tag at Turfway last out. He was competitive on synthetic, though his figures are a bit slow. He will try turf for the first time, but lacks any real turf pedigree.

                    #2 Copper Ghost: Fellow Trombetta trainee and past workmate of Munny Problem who will have to carry 126lbs (9lbs more than Munny Problem) due to being a year older. Makes his turf debut after four decent tries on synthetic.

                    #4 Roktar: Was well beaten on debut at Turfway Park in an auction price-restricted maiden event. Faces a tougher group here and will seek improvement switching to the turf.

                    #5 Zencat: Has been beaten a combined 39 3/4 lengths in his two starts this year. Goes back to the turf in hopes of improvement.

                    #6 Chatbot: Well beaten in both career starts. Will try turf in what seems to be a bit of desperation. This gelding lacks any real turf pedigree.

                    #7 Free Refills: Sports 9 works on the year coming into this debut with a bit of an irregular work pattern and will debut around two turns, making this a tall task.

                    Comment
                    • JBEX
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-02-12
                      • 24562

                      #11595
                      I like your horse at laurel batt .. even better than the trainer's other one
                      Comment
                      • batt33
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-23-16
                        • 6260

                        #11596
                        Originally posted by JBEX
                        I like your horse at laurel batt .. even better than the trainer's other one
                        This was from awhile back..

                        Munny Problem has remained on a normal training routine at Gulfstream Park since his debut and had his first work back this morning breezing a very easy half mile in :51.34.

                        After speaking with trainer Mike Trombetta further, we have decided we will be moving your colt to Fair Hill this coming week. In speaking with Mike, he feels that the Laurel Park turf course will suit him much better as it has a bit more give to it versus the very firm Gulfstream Park turf course. In addition, Fair Hill is a tremendous place for a horse to train and be stabled with the various courses to train over (dirt, synthetic, and turf gallops), along with the potential for turn-out time as well. While the turf season does not begin until about mid-April at Laurel, Mike said he would not be afraid look at a MSW on dirt either if Munny Problem trains forwardly enough over it in the coming weeks. This time of year, the dirt maiden special weights typically go with light and short fields, which is a bonus. We will let Mike make those final determinations of where and when exactly he wants to run, but we wanted to inform you of our current plan and thought process.

                        Comment
                        • JBEX
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-02-12
                          • 24562

                          #11597
                          just saw an army mule miss by a neck at oaklawn (R9) .. an allowance race ($125k) .. just happened to notice the name as the race was being run .. wasn't looking for them
                          Comment
                          • JBEX
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-02-12
                            • 24562

                            #11598
                            Originally posted by Optional
                            Awful jockey accident in Australia today

                            "Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

                            https://www.racenet.com.au/news/quee...ident-20260410
                            and what he had to endure for that many hours .. awful incident
                            Comment
                            • JBEX
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-02-12
                              • 24562

                              #11599
                              army mule has an even money favorite in R4 @ kee saturday which is a msw race .. #4 shewontbudge
                              Comment
                              • str
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-12-09
                                • 12030

                                #11600
                                Going to try and catch up tomorrow. Sorry folks.
                                Comment
                                • str
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-12-09
                                  • 12030

                                  #11601
                                  Originally posted by Optional
                                  Awful jockey accident in Australia today

                                  "Queensland country jockey Shane McGovern is facing the devastating prospect of losing both legs after being trapped beneath a dead horse for six agonising hours at Charters Towers on Wednesday."

                                  https://www.racenet.com.au/news/quee...ident-20260410
                                  This is tragic. I sure hope his legs can survive with the blood blockage. Riding alone and no eyes on you is always risky. We all know that but it does seem safe enough until it isn't. So sorry to hear this. Fingers crossed.
                                  Comment
                                  • str
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-12-09
                                    • 12030

                                    #11602
                                    Originally posted by JBEX

                                    about half the field is scratched including deterministic and it's a firm turf .. not sure what's going on there .. very disappointed
                                    Does seem odd. The good news is, going forward, there is no race to " point" towards in particular. That is code for, he can run wherever he wants and whenever the time is right. Advantage Deterministic. Always a better percentage play to run when the horse tells you instead of when the condition book does. Probably better for it in the long run as long as he is healthy.
                                    Comment
                                    • str
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-12-09
                                      • 12030

                                      #11603
                                      Originally posted by batt33
                                      Munny problem is making his second start at STR's Stomping grounds
                                      Munny Problem: Entered



                                      Munny Problem has been entered to run on Sunday, Apr. 12 in race 9 at Laurel Park. Your colt will break from post 3 of 7 with Mychel Sanchez aboard. Trainer Michael Trombetta saw that this option in the condition book seemed to be coming up a tad light and opted to enter your son of Munnings in this three-and-up, two-turn turf maiden special weight event. We will be back in the coming days with a closer look at the race.

                                      Munny Problem: Race Overview



                                      Munny Problem is set to make his second career start in race 9 on Sunday, Apr. 12 at Laurel Park. He will break from post 3 in a 7-horse field with Mychel Sanchez in the irons. Post time will be at 3:51 p.m. ET.

                                      Your son of Munnings has posted two fast works at Fair Hill since he shipped north from Florida and seems to be doing very well coming into this start. In his debut, he was a bit tardy out of the gate and was hung out very wide throughout, making the task of debuting around two turns that much more difficult. Though her will face older horses for the first time, he will have a nice weight allowance and we expect a much-improved effort from him with a race under his belt.

                                      the competition:

                                      #1 Rosie’s Word: Missed by a head for the $30K tag at Turfway last out. He was competitive on synthetic, though his figures are a bit slow. He will try turf for the first time, but lacks any real turf pedigree.

                                      #2 Copper Ghost: Fellow Trombetta trainee and past workmate of Munny Problem who will have to carry 126lbs (9lbs more than Munny Problem) due to being a year older. Makes his turf debut after four decent tries on synthetic.

                                      #4 Roktar: Was well beaten on debut at Turfway Park in an auction price-restricted maiden event. Faces a tougher group here and will seek improvement switching to the turf.

                                      #5 Zencat: Has been beaten a combined 39 3/4 lengths in his two starts this year. Goes back to the turf in hopes of improvement.

                                      #6 Chatbot: Well beaten in both career starts. Will try turf in what seems to be a bit of desperation. This gelding lacks any real turf pedigree.

                                      #7 Free Refills: Sports 9 works on the year coming into this debut with a bit of an irregular work pattern and will debut around two turns, making this a tall task.

                                      I have always felt that a 3 yr. old maiden is most likely going to be better than a 4 yr. old maiden. Main reason is, why is a 4 yr. old still a maiden? Usually it is a lack of talent or speed or soundness. Then they have to carry much more weight going long. Huge edge for the 3 yr. old maidens in my book. Once there out of the maiden category it is usually a different story. But, it's a case by case thing.

                                      As for today, IMO, the ONLY thing to watch is the horse himself. Period. Forget the winning, forget everything, just watch the horse. This horse needs to catch on to the plan of HOW to run, that being, attentive in the gate, break well, respond immediately to the riders commands, fall into a breathing pattern, THINK, listen to the bit and the subtle communication with the rider, be in snyc as a team.
                                      All this is the key to becoming whatever it is you can become. But it starts with mental control and communication. If the horse just runs off and wins with his eyes on fire, nice win, but what the hell was that? This has to be a build of 2-3 races that can help shape this horses overall demeanor and career. That is WAY more important than todays purse. Do we want it to win? Of course ! But the number one thing here, IMO, is HOW this horse will warm up, break, settle, respond, finish and most importantly, learn that understanding the game can be more difficult that winning a race.
                                      He needs to give himself a chance to build on something today. It's not about a race. It's about a career. And that career will go as far as his brain and demeanor will take him.

                                      Good luck Batt ! Have a safe trip.
                                      Comment
                                      • str
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-12-09
                                        • 12030

                                        #11604
                                        BTW... I spoke to Mike at an awards luncheon a few of weeks ago that I went to with a friend of mine. Had not talked to him since I left 25 years ago. It was great to catch up for a few minutes. He is the same guy he was when he and his dad had 2 horses at Pimlico. Just a great guy.
                                        Told him how happy I was for all his success and to keep it up. I'm sure he will. He's a class act from humble beginnings. A really good horseman to say the least. All the best my friend.
                                        Comment
                                        • str
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-12-09
                                          • 12030

                                          #11605
                                          Originally posted by JBEX
                                          hey str

                                          do you feel the race a horse had prior to a win can have an effect on it repeating ?

                                          an even run or slow fade vs better (faster) company might propel a horse more than a win or competitive effort in the race prior to the win .. along the lines that there might be more of a tightening effect that carries forward exiting the faster race vs a good finish in the slower one .. like winning via feeling the relief of the class drop might be more likely to carryover for one more race
                                          Here is the question with a hundred answers. It's a good one.

                                          This is where you get into the thought process of the trainer and what they are trying to achieve off that last effort. One quick note. I always will be a big proponent of concentrating on one particular meet instead of following 6 different tracks. I'm just an old guy now. Set in my ways and what worked for me and I get that. But... my reasoning is sound.
                                          So past opinions, and likes or dislikes, if there is a proven method to anything, in any arena, for me... I'm riding that as long as it works, which is usually forever because it is proven and lasted the test of time. The hardest test of them all.

                                          Not all, but many trainers fall into a pattern. Usually from prior success with that thought process attached to that pattern. So the slow fade vs. faster or better company shows a winning effort from the horse who seems to be a top shape in order to have that last effort be so good. Some trainers will just try it again in the same race. I get that. And there are a multitude of reasons why that might happen. But when you see a trainer take that horse off that nice effort where they just were not quite good enough, and work the horse a couple of times, and then place it aggressively downward slightly, and most likely that trainer is an over bet trainer because they win frequently, that is almost a gift for you. That trainer is there to win. Period. There are so many trainers that will try again and see what happens because of pressure not to lose the horse in the claim box from the owner or even themselves. But when you see the trainer almost jam that horse in to it's next start knowing that if the effort is repeated, it is most likely a winner, that is an edge you don't normally feel with a bet you make in any normal race. It's like you know as much as the trainer does.
                                          As a rule, I don't really care for betting favorites. But in this case, unless the horse is way over bet, I think it is value. There is no guessing if the horse is good enough in general. Off that last race, it certainly appears so in the form. That is just one of several scenarios we will discuss. I'll do others in the coming days on the same subject. In the meantime, see if this makes sense albeit watching or betting. We don't always know all the info the trainer does, but we know the ability of the horse and if the race setup is favorable, often times those races are over half way through the race. Something to keep an eye on and see a race from another angle. Hope that makes sense for starters.
                                          Comment
                                          • JBEX
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-02-12
                                            • 24562

                                            #11606
                                            thanks str

                                            yes I often feel when I see this that the horse is well meant and wound up ,hardened for a top effort vs lesser .. generally like the exiting race to be 3-6 lengths faster by figures (more is fine but starts to become too obvious) to establish it was a better race..I agree when it's done by upper echelon trainers some or all the value is gone and you're more likely to do better with mid pack or lower ones spotting their horses right

                                            one analogy might be you're running high school track and go compete at the state level (so you're well above average) .. you put in solid efforts vs tough competition but you're not quite with the best ones .. when you return to compete on the school team even vs above average runners you will probably be primed to do well .. some of that conditioning and the feel that the same effort put forth here has you within your comfort zone hanging with these runners
                                            .. I never ran track so possibly I'm wrong but I think you get the idea
                                            Comment
                                            • JBEX
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-02-12
                                              • 24562

                                              #11607
                                              california burrito (army mule) going in R5 at keeneland (3:08) .. he's #10 @ (12-1)
                                              Comment
                                              • JBEX
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-02-12
                                                • 24562

                                                #11608
                                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                                california burrito (army mule) going in R5 at keeneland (3:08) .. he's #10 @ (12-1)
                                                mistake .. going next week sorry
                                                Comment
                                                • JBEX
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                  • 24562

                                                  #11609
                                                  found another (AM) @ kee in R4 ..#4 weekend reveille (15-1) .. it's a maiden claiming so not impossible and will be balloon odds

                                                  out [63-1] think he needs mcl at a minor track to have a shot
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JBEX
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                    • 24562

                                                    #11610
                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                    found another (AM) @ kee in R4 ..#4 weekend reveille (15-1) .. it's a maiden claiming so not impossible and will be balloon odds
                                                    came across another at oaklawn .. R5 #10 saving heart (5-2) .. also a maiden claimer

                                                    WON $4.80
                                                    Comment
                                                    • batt33
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-23-16
                                                      • 6260

                                                      #11611
                                                      Originally posted by str

                                                      I have always felt that a 3 yr. old maiden is most likely going to be better than a 4 yr. old maiden. Main reason is, why is a 4 yr. old still a maiden? Usually it is a lack of talent or speed or soundness. Then they have to carry much more weight going long. Huge edge for the 3 yr. old maidens in my book. Once there out of the maiden category it is usually a different story. But, it's a case by case thing.

                                                      As for today, IMO, the ONLY thing to watch is the horse himself. Period. Forget the winning, forget everything, just watch the horse. This horse needs to catch on to the plan of HOW to run, that being, attentive in the gate, break well, respond immediately to the riders commands, fall into a breathing pattern, THINK, listen to the bit and the subtle communication with the rider, be in snyc as a team.
                                                      All this is the key to becoming whatever it is you can become. But it starts with mental control and communication. If the horse just runs off and wins with his eyes on fire, nice win, but what the hell was that? This has to be a build of 2-3 races that can help shape this horses overall demeanor and career. That is WAY more important than todays purse. Do we want it to win? Of course ! But the number one thing here, IMO, is HOW this horse will warm up, break, settle, respond, finish and most importantly, learn that understanding the game can be more difficult that winning a race.
                                                      He needs to give himself a chance to build on something today. It's not about a race. It's about a career. And that career will go as far as his brain and demeanor will take him.

                                                      Good luck Batt ! Have a safe trip.
                                                      As always enjoy your thoughts and delving deeper besides trying to win a race!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • batt33
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 12-23-16
                                                        • 6260

                                                        #11612
                                                        Originally posted by str
                                                        BTW... I spoke to Mike at an awards luncheon a few of weeks ago that I went to with a friend of mine. Had not talked to him since I left 25 years ago. It was great to catch up for a few minutes. He is the same guy he was when he and his dad had 2 horses at Pimlico. Just a great guy.
                                                        Told him how happy I was for all his success and to keep it up. I'm sure he will. He's a class act from humble beginnings. A really good horseman to say the least. All the best my friend.
                                                        That's pretty cool! Thanks STR!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • str
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-12-09
                                                          • 12030

                                                          #11613
                                                          Originally posted by batt33

                                                          This was from awhile back..

                                                          Munny Problem has remained on a normal training routine at Gulfstream Park since his debut and had his first work back this morning breezing a very easy half mile in :51.34.

                                                          After speaking with trainer Mike Trombetta further, we have decided we will be moving your colt to Fair Hill this coming week. In speaking with Mike, he feels that the Laurel Park turf course will suit him much better as it has a bit more give to it versus the very firm Gulfstream Park turf course. In addition, Fair Hill is a tremendous place for a horse to train and be stabled with the various courses to train over (dirt, synthetic, and turf gallops), along with the potential for turn-out time as well. While the turf season does not begin until about mid-April at Laurel, Mike said he would not be afraid look at a MSW on dirt either if Munny Problem trains forwardly enough over it in the coming weeks. This time of year, the dirt maiden special weights typically go with light and short fields, which is a bonus. We will let Mike make those final determinations of where and when exactly he wants to run, but we wanted to inform you of our current plan and thought process.

                                                          Munny Problems ran MUCH better yesterday and was a different horse. He is still learning but what helps that learning curve is running against horses that you are most likely as good as or better, allows small things that happen to not be as consequential.
                                                          He got pinched a little leaving the gate. Probably the best thing that happened to him. It allowed the horse to gather himself up, and also to realize early down the backside that he belonged with that quality of horse. He was certainly 2nd best and probably will improve to be as good as the winner ran in his next race or two. That's not to say that the winner will not also improve and might end up a little better, but whatever. This horse needs to find his niche and gain fitness and confidence along with experience and yesterday did exactly that. You could see it going down the backside early. It's like the lightbulb went off. Soooo cool to see that. ( One of the things I will never stop missing about training).
                                                          I think there is some more improvement ahead, as he will be fitter next out and this time he will know what he is there for. Look for a different demeanor in the paddock and warming up.
                                                          He will be fine. He will win real soon. He got a bit tired but it was a healthy tired NOT an overwhelming tired. Huge difference. Mike's got him and he is in great hands. Good job Batt !
                                                          Comment
                                                          • batt33
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-23-16
                                                            • 6260

                                                            #11614
                                                            Originally posted by str

                                                            Munny Problems ran MUCH better yesterday and was a different horse. He is still learning but what helps that learning curve is running against horses that you are most likely as good as or better, allows small things that happen to not be as consequential.
                                                            He got pinched a little leaving the gate. Probably the best thing that happened to him. It allowed the horse to gather himself up, and also to realize early down the backside that he belonged with that quality of horse. He was certainly 2nd best and probably will improve to be as good as the winner ran in his next race or two. That's not to say that the winner will not also improve and might end up a little better, but whatever. This horse needs to find his niche and gain fitness and confidence along with experience and yesterday did exactly that. You could see it going down the backside early. It's like the lightbulb went off. Soooo cool to see that. ( One of the things I will never stop missing about training).
                                                            I think there is some more improvement ahead, as he will be fitter next out and this time he will know what he is there for. Look for a different demeanor in the paddock and warming up.
                                                            He will be fine. He will win real soon. He got a bit tired but it was a healthy tired NOT an overwhelming tired. Huge difference. Mike's got him and he is in great hands. Good job Batt !
                                                            Thanks STR!
                                                            From the post race interviews right in line with what you observed!


                                                            Both jockey Mychel Sanchez and trainer Mike Trombetta provided feedback in line with our own observations: Munny Problem clearly has significant talent, but is still a young horse who’s figuring things out. Mike said he had been toying with adding blinkers for this start, but wanted to give Munny Problem one more try without them first. After today, he plans to add them in training and will likely use them for Munny Problem’s next race. Mike noted he’s always thought highly of the winner, and expects your colt to be very tough in his next outing in a similar spot.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JBEX
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-02-12
                                                              • 24562

                                                              #11615
                                                              Originally posted by str

                                                              Does seem odd. The good news is, going forward, there is no race to " point" towards in particular. That is code for, he can run wherever he wants and whenever the time is right. Advantage Deterministic. Always a better percentage play to run when the horse tells you instead of when the condition book does. Probably better for it in the long run as long as he is healthy.
                                                              churchill has a listed stakes at a mile on the turf on 4/30 with a $350k purse .. bet that's where we see him next and a little class relief vs the kee G1 first off the long layoff
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                                                              • str
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 12030

                                                                #11616
                                                                Originally posted by JBEX

                                                                churchill has a listed stakes at a mile on the turf on 4/30 with a $350k purse .. bet that's where we see him next and a little class relief vs the kee G1 first off the long layoff
                                                                You can almost feel the pressure now being totally OFF of Deterministic. Just like that, he is now left alone to run when he is ready. Bold move by his trainer and I applaud it. That took guts as well as an aura of confidence to not bow to the pressure. His dad would be so very proud. Well done !

                                                                All this made up pressure is so over hyped. So on that subject, I have to ask why would you want to run against Sovereignty first back after losing to him multiple times the year before? I don't get it. I suppose a cynic would say something detrimental about it but who gives a damn. That cynic has zero time or money invested in this. If a horse wins, they start liking it. Loving it. And in plenty of cases it can change their effort and personality in a positive way. Personally, I would have no interest in running a nice race and being 3rd or 2nd. And if you were going to beat Sovereignty, the first thing said would be excuses why you beat him . I mean, Breeders Cup, Travers, that kind of race, sure. But Oaklawn Handicap in April? I don't care what grade it is. You play to win the game. Herm Edwards was spot on IMO.
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                                                                • BOA12
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 02-19-12
                                                                  • 20837

                                                                  #11617
                                                                  If I made my way to str land,

                                                                  what is the closest oval or otb

                                                                  someone would bump into you, a chance meeting ?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JBEX
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                                    • 24562

                                                                    #11618
                                                                    Originally posted by str

                                                                    You can almost feel the pressure now being totally OFF of Deterministic. Just like that, he is now left alone to run when he is ready. Bold move by his trainer and I applaud it. That took guts as well as an aura of confidence to not bow to the pressure. His dad would be so very proud. Well done !

                                                                    All this made up pressure is so over hyped. So on that subject, I have to ask why would you want to run against Sovereignty first back after losing to him multiple times the year before? I don't get it. I suppose a cynic would say something detrimental about it but who gives a damn. That cynic has zero time or money invested in this. If a horse wins, they start liking it. Loving it. And in plenty of cases it can change their effort and personality in a positive way. Personally, I would have no interest in running a nice race and being 3rd or 2nd. And if you were going to beat Sovereignty, the first thing said would be excuses why you beat him . I mean, Breeders Cup, Travers, that kind of race, sure. But Oaklawn Handicap in April? I don't care what grade it is. You play to win the game. Herm Edwards was spot on IMO.
                                                                    I agree str and can't see facing sovereignty right off the bat .. start off with an easier assignment, hopefully win and establish some positive momentum going forward .. that's might be along the lines of what deterministic's connections are thinking but no way to know for sure
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • str
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-12-09
                                                                      • 12030

                                                                      #11619
                                                                      Originally posted by JBEX

                                                                      I agree str and can't see facing sovereignty right off the bat .. start off with an easier assignment, hopefully win and establish some positive momentum going forward .. that's might be along the lines of what deterministic's connections are thinking but no way to know for sure
                                                                      Give your horse a chance to experience winning and try to build from that. This is not to say it is impossible for him or the others to win , but the whole world will give Sovereignty a pass if he loses. It just seems to me that the cons outweigh to pros right now. And if an upset does occur, pretty good chance that winning horse would have won somewhere else as well.

                                                                      I always tried to avoid break even or lose situations.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • str
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                                        • 12030

                                                                        #11620
                                                                        Originally posted by BOA12
                                                                        If I made my way to str land,

                                                                        what is the closest oval or otb

                                                                        someone would bump into you, a chance meeting ?
                                                                        B12: That would be Laurel Park. It would be my pleasure if that occurred.
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