Horse Racing questions and answers

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  • str
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-12-09
    • 11601

    #8191
    Originally posted by JBEX
    I think the gain in the last 1/16th is only 4 lengths str ..8 lengths is from the stretch call..if that's the case (and I always allow for an out with my diminishing mental acuity lol) it still comes in at a quick 5 4/5ths for final 1/16th ..let me know if this is right
    I have no idea. It was always the 1/8th pole call forever but I can't say. My god an I old or what.

    I hand timed her the last 1/4, although a little tough to get her off that pole because she was so wide in 23 2/5ths. I got her the last 1/8th in 10 3/5s.
    Seems who she faced has not fared that well since that day but I am looking at the clock, not the competition.
    Comment
    • mrginandtonic
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-11-09
      • 7732

      #8192
      Originally posted by batt33
      I love I when a trainer sticks with his jockey! I always root for them in big races hope Studly runs well! I'm looking at the outside two Number 8 and 9.
      Both were well meant at first asking and Chad Brown has been rolling lately ... not mention Prat also.

      Interesting to see that neither Ortiz brother has a mount in the race.

      Looks like Irad took the favorite cuz Castellano is off his mounts today; don’t know why he is off though.

      I too always root for trainer who sticks with his jockey. GL to them. I’m sure he will run well; not sure if good enough to win. The 2 looks like he should win easily based on his Beyer!! 96!! Unless it’s all due to muddy track. But I don’t think so. He has tactical speed and should sit right off the two speed balls; as much as I hate chalk; but gonna take it. Exacta might be a better play 2-6,9. I think the 8 will be flying late but just miss 2nd… lol (rooting against Prat)
      Last edited by mrginandtonic; 09-02-24, 01:14 PM.
      Comment
      • str
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-12-09
        • 11601

        #8193
        Originally posted by Madison
        One for maybe later STR, but SAR R11 Venecia. Ist in US looked real impressive. Coming back here off 448 days off and 2nd effort?. I believe all Brown/Ortiz, and 4-1 ML. Huuummm???
        The time off does not concern me at all.
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 23140

          #8194
          Originally posted by Optional
          When I said to him it is from Northern Dancer, he not only did not know that, he did not know Northern Dancer lol

          He totally relies on advice of the trainer who is a good friend and appears to be putting him into good horses so far.

          I was still surprised he had so little idea of it's pedigree.

          I thought it looked good but don't know enough to be sure so am smiling wide for him after seeing what you two say.
          it's a top pedigree imo..sire,grandsire,dams 1st ,2nd and 3rd as runners and what they've produced..every right to be something real good based on that

          as far as things all going back to danzig (by northern dancer) top and bottom of pedigree i "think" that's a bit rare but not certain..especially the same son of danzig 4 generations back in the sires pedigree..very interesting from what I remember looking into these things more a long ways back


          Originally posted by Optional
          I suggested they call it Bentoverbackwards btw.
          would've been a good one
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23140

            #8195
            Originally posted by str
            I have no idea. It was always the 1/8th pole call forever but I can't say. My god an I old or what.

            I hand timed her the last 1/4, although a little tough to get her off that pole because she was so wide in 23 2/5ths. I got her the last 1/8th in 10 3/5s.
            Seems who she faced has not fared that well since that day but I am looking at the clock, not the competition.
            it's the 1/8th pole so if we want the close for the final 1/16th it would be half the 8 lengths he gained .. would still think 5 4/5ths secs (+/- tick) is still a pretty good final 1/16th


            I agree the time is what matters most and not that other horses in his debut didn't fare well next out..final quarter including eighth breakdown is really impressive
            Comment
            • Jellymancan
              SBR MVP
              • 03-09-20
              • 3687

              #8196
              I loved Ferocious first time out. Could be special. But, I'm going to play against him with win bets on #4,6,9 and exbox those 3.
              Comment
              • Jellymancan
                SBR MVP
                • 03-09-20
                • 3687

                #8197
                STR. The goat. Great call.
                Comment
                • batt33
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-23-16
                  • 5981

                  #8198
                  Originally posted by batt33
                  I love I when a trainer sticks with his jockey! I always root for them in big races hope Studly runs well! I'm looking at the outside two Number 8 and 9.
                  Both were well meant at first asking and Chad Brown has been rolling lately ... not mention Prat also.

                  Interesting to see that neither Ortiz brother has a mount in the race.
                  bingo!
                  Comment
                  • mrginandtonic
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-11-09
                    • 7732

                    #8199
                    Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                    Looks like Irad took the favorite cuz Castellano is off his mounts today; don’t know why he is off though.

                    I too always root for trainer who sticks with his jockey. GL to them. I’m sure he will run well; not sure if good enough to win. The 2 looks like he should win easily based on his Beyer!! 96!! Unless it’s all due to muddy track. But I don’t think so. He has tactical speed and should sit right off the two speed balls; as much as I hate chalk; but gonna take it. Exacta might be a better play 2-6,9. I think the 8 will be flying late but just miss 2nd… lol (rooting against Prat)
                    Prat wins, I loses… lol, really need to change my betting
                    Comment
                    • batt33
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-23-16
                      • 5981

                      #8200
                      Originally posted by str
                      So I am trying to make a case for a horse in here to run well and maybe win. But then as I go through the form, Chancer ** Patrick makes up 8 lengths from the from the 1/8th pole to the wire. The race runs 3/4's in 1:11 1/5ths seconds and finishes up in 1:17 4/5ths seconds. So the last 1/16th of a mile is 6 3/5ths seconds. That's a nice final time but wait, what, the horse that hits the finish line first Chancellor McPatrick was 8 lengths back ?
                      Now I have always trusted and leaned on my goesintas when it comes to fractions. Goesintas are , 2 goesinto 2 once, 2 goesinta 4 twice, and so on. So I look at my goesintas and see that Chancer McPatrick according to goesintas, ran the last 1/16th of a mile in 5 FLAT !
                      Subtracting 8 /5ths of a second off the 1:11 1/5ths and 1:17 4/5ths on the therory that Chancer McPatrick ran the 3/4 time in 1:11 1/2 plus 8/5ths of a seconds on the rule that a length is a 1/5 second difference and he ran 5 flat? Seriously?
                      I just timed him myself with my old stop watch ( still works) Lol, and I got him in 5 1/5th from the 1/16th pole to the wire. He went 34 flat from the 3/8ths pole while 5-6 wide. Oh, and let me repeat something...He went 5 1/5th in the last 1/16th just in case this did not register the 1st time. What??

                      The horse I wanted to talk about was actually Studly Doright. He has run so darn well and finishes fast. At least for a normal horse anyway. I especially enjoy a baby that can finish. Kind of rare this early on. John Robb spoke so matter of fact about him when Chucky and I were at Laurel for the day. John stays even keeled but you could tell he has high hopes for him.
                      But for the love of God, I don't recall ever seeing anything like what I saw with Chancellor McPatrick.

                      Last 1/16th in 5 1/5th. What?
                      Last 1/8th in 10 3/5ths. What?
                      Last 3/8ths in 34 flat. What?

                      So, you never know if you will get the same performance from race to race, and when the horse switched back to his left lead through the stretch kind of late, he really took off, so who knows what we will see today but if he finishes like he did last time, how on earth will anybody beat him?
                      I guess I have seen something like that before with a firster, but I can't remember it if I did. That race was incredible.

                      So even though there are several that could really blossom in here, I'll root for Studly to run well. And I want to see Chancellor McPatrick do what he did again. That last race was from another planet.
                      Nice call STR!
                      Comment
                      • batt33
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-23-16
                        • 5981

                        #8201
                        Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                        Prat wins, I loses… lol, really need to change my betting
                        sometimes, okay alot of times I know the feeling.....
                        Comment
                        • mrginandtonic
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-11-09
                          • 7732

                          #8202
                          Originally posted by batt33
                          sometimes, okay alot of times I know the feeling.....
                          Sometimes I wonder how dumb am I??

                          09/02 1:13 PM Saratoga TB 8 $0.50 P5 8 / 6 / 2 / 11, 13 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 $8.00
                          Comment
                          • str
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-12-09
                            • 11601

                            #8203
                            Originally posted by JBEX
                            I think the gain in the last 1/16th is only 4 lengths str ..8 lengths is from the stretch call..if that's the case (and I always allow for an out with my diminishing mental acuity lol) it still comes in at a quick 5 4/5ths for final 1/16th ..let me know if this is right
                            I was adding up from the 1/8th pole but subtracting from the 1/16th pole. Duh. But it's ok because I hand timed various times from several poles. I hand timed from the 1/16th pole in 5 1/5th BUT.. because he was so far out in the middle of the track, hitting him while at the pole was really hard. I could have been of by a length or even 2 lengths. But the 1/8th was pretty accurate.
                            Whatever it was , it was ridiculous.
                            This was yet another great find on your part JBEX. And speaking of those great finds, I will go back to it one more time. Kingsbarns , had he run and run the way he was supposed to mentally, would have, IMO, won the Jockey Gold Cup fairly easily , which would have had him in line to be one of the choices in the B.C. Classic.

                            While we will never know for sure, in my mind, I kind of do.
                            Comment
                            • str
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-12-09
                              • 11601

                              #8204
                              Thanks for the kind words you guys.

                              I hope some of you had a ticket or two.
                              Comment
                              • JBEX
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-02-12
                                • 23140

                                #8205
                                Originally posted by str
                                I was adding up from the 1/8th pole but subtracting from the 1/16th pole. Duh. But it's ok because I hand timed various times from several poles. I hand timed from the 1/16th pole in 5 1/5th BUT.. because he was so far out in the middle of the track, hitting him while at the pole was really hard. I could have been of by a length or even 2 lengths. But the 1/8th was pretty accurate.
                                Whatever it was , it was ridiculous.
                                This was yet another great find on your part JBEX. And speaking of those great finds, I will go back to it one more time. Kingsbarns , had he run and run the way he was supposed to mentally, would have, IMO, won the Jockey Gold Cup fairly easily , which would have had him in line to be one of the choices in the B.C. Classic.

                                While we will never know for sure, in my mind, I kind of do.
                                thanks str

                                has been a nice bunch of horses from army mule through chancer mcpatrick ..all met the criteria of winning by big margins and/or ran very professionally first out ..also cost a lot/big pedigree or both ..AM and CM not only cost a lot but they also did relative to their pedigrees which is an angle I really like

                                CM probably needs to improve on his starts but as the analysts said and I agree the further the better ..thought it was interesting how ferocious seemed to lag a bit in the stretch but when CM came alongside him his interest seemed to perk up and finished to the wire with him .. think he's going to be something special also


                                yes would have been nice to see KB in the race on saturday..will be a lot less interesting with him not having a shot at the classic .hopefully some of the others we follow will continue to progress well





                                .
                                Comment
                                • mrginandtonic
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-11-09
                                  • 7732

                                  #8206
                                  In a most apropos conclusion to the 2024 Saratoga meet, Chancer McPatrick overcame a terrible start to rally seven wide in the stretch and outfinish heavily favored Ferocious to win Monday’s Grade 1, $300,000 Hopeful Stakes by a half-length on closing day of the 40-day stand.




                                  Hey STR, great pick on Chancer McPatrick. There is an interesting article about The Hopeful. Just want to get your thoughts the first three finishers comment. Trying to help me picture how they might fair against each other down the line. Thanks in advance.
                                  Last edited by mrginandtonic; 09-03-24, 01:04 PM.
                                  Comment
                                  • Easy-Rider 66
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 02-14-12
                                    • 36085

                                    #8207
                                    yeah STR nice score in the hopeful
                                    Comment
                                    • JBEX
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-02-12
                                      • 23140

                                      #8208
                                      hey str

                                      with a good possibility CM will continue the ny route to the bc and run in the champagne
                                      ..do you think going a mile on an unbiased belmont track with wider sweeping turns would've been a bigger advantage than doing it at aqueduct ?
                                      Comment
                                      • str
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-12-09
                                        • 11601

                                        #8209
                                        Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                                        https://www.drf.com/news/chancer-mcp...hopeful-stakes



                                        Hey STR, great pick on Chancer McPatrick. There is an interesting article about The Hopeful. Just want to get your thoughts the first three finishers comment. Trying to help me picture how they might fair against each other down the line. Thanks in advance.

                                        Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words Mr. GandT. Here is what I see and saw. The picture is below:

                                        What I see : Chancer McPatrick is all business and understands his job in the picture. He seems to know where the finish line is but will wait to make a final judgement when he is in front at the 1/8th pole down the road somewhere. Look at his eyes. All business and focus.

                                        My thoughts: Knowing now that the rider lost an iron leaving the gate and it took 6-8 seconds to get his foot back in just makes this race even more impressive. I remember saying that stuff like this happens more than fans think, about Deterministic a couple of months ago, because often times you can't see it without binoculars, and even then it can be difficult to spot, especially when coming out of the chute being as it is so far away. But for a 2nd timer to overcome that, come from last and go around everyone, is special. He will be a pleasure to follow through the winter and into the spring.


                                        What I see in the picture: Ferocious is learning on the fly. He must have enormous talent to run in spots like he does, and run so fast. The fact that he picked it up when the outside horse got to him shows that he was thinking a bit too much for himself during the stretch run. Look at the ears of those two near the wire. C.McP. ears back, all in , full extension and focus. Ferocious, Left ear half way up, kind of thinking while he runs. All you want is for your horse to be thinking about competition and winning, not what's all the fuss about that 's making the people in the grandstand holler. Or, is this what you meant for me to do Mr. rider? He also lost his left front shoe somewhere in the race. Look at the picture and you see no visible shoe on his left front which is up when that picture was taken. All the little things. The old adage, one way to win and a thousand ways to lose. Now look at His eyes. A little less focused like his mind is wandering just a bit. Hope you folks can see that.
                                        Usually the horse gets one side of the shoe stepped on by the horse next to him. That could have happened leaving the gate, or near the 1/4 pole and that could have been what the horse was thinking about . We have no idea of that now. Hopefully a little bruised at the most or just fine. Typically plenty can win like that but it can get you beat as well. We just don't know.
                                        More often than not, the horses foot is fine after a couple of days. I hope that is the case.

                                        My thoughts: He will clean that up. Maybe through putting him in similar positions in the mornings, or maybe a small blinker thing, I don't know the horse at all to say anymore about it, but if he can gain full focus from gate to wire, and keep all four shoes on, Oh my will he be a tough horse to beat down the road. Those top 2 horses are exceptional in my book.


                                        My thoughts on the horse that ran 3rd: Rosario said afterwards that he thinks going inside might have made the horse a little uneasy. Maybe he was better off to be outside. So he certainly felt a deceleration through the lane. Maybe he was a bit tired. Maybe he was a bit nervous with the kickback and inside claustrophobia, We don't know. But what that is saying is that he is better than he showed from the 1/4 pole home in that race. And a guy like Rosario is not going to just say that, like an excuse. He certainly knows the difference and has no reason to not say, he was 3rd best. So you have to watch out for him as well.

                                        Three extremely talented 2 year olds that will most likely grow better as they mature. Is that enough to flip the order of finish down the road. Yes, it can be.
                                        This years 3 year old group has talent no doubt, but next years 3 year old group should be outstanding. I think they will give us a show that you don't see all that often.


                                        Thanks Mr. GandT.

                                        Last edited by str; 09-04-24, 08:18 AM.
                                        Comment
                                        • str
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-12-09
                                          • 11601

                                          #8210
                                          Originally posted by JBEX
                                          hey str

                                          with a good possibility CM will continue the ny route to the bc and run in the champagne
                                          ..do you think going a mile on an unbiased belmont track with wider sweeping turns would've been a bigger advantage than doing it at aqueduct ?
                                          It most likely would have been a little easier for him at Belmont than at Aqueduct. But, with those two moves I saw, giving him more help around the turn seems almost unfair. Lol.
                                          Comment
                                          • str
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-12-09
                                            • 11601

                                            #8211
                                            Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                                            yeah STR nice score in the hopeful
                                            Thanks EZ.
                                            Comment
                                            • JBEX
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-02-12
                                              • 23140

                                              #8212
                                              2nd time 2yo filly by army mule going at horseshoe indy ..broke slow in debut but looks in tough here..trainer really bad ..#4 wisconsin gal (15-1) @ 2:41




                                              .
                                              Comment
                                              • str
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-12-09
                                                • 11601

                                                #8213
                                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                                2nd time 2yo filly by army mule going at horseshoe indy ..broke slow in debut but looks in tough here..trainer really bad ..#4 wisconsin gal (15-1) @ 2:41




                                                .
                                                Blinkers on and fronts for a first time starter. Jeez ! I think the trainer might need blinkers and fronts more than the horse. I know that is out of character and unfair of me. That said, a 7 pound bug and blinkers on and fronts first out that breaks last and does not run at all?

                                                If this horse wakes up in a big way, fine, I take it back . But if not... that deserves a "C'Mon Man".

                                                I'm admittedly a little fired up from just reading the garbage about Arlington Nat. Cemetery in that BS political thread. Why I go back there and read that junk, I have no idea. It's like you can't turn your head away from a car wreck about to happen.
                                                Please, help me. More questions so I don't find a minute to look. Lolol. I'm better now. Hahaha.

                                                Thanks JBEX.
                                                Comment
                                                • JBEX
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                  • 23140

                                                  #8214
                                                  Originally posted by str
                                                  Blinkers on and fronts for a first time starter. Jeez ! I think the trainer might need blinkers and fronts more than the horse. I know that is out of character and unfair of me. That said, a 7 pound bug and blinkers on and fronts first out that breaks last and does not run at all?

                                                  If this horse wakes up in a big way, fine, I take it back . But if not... that deserves a "C'Mon Man".

                                                  I'm admittedly a little fired up from just reading the garbage about Arlington Nat. Cemetery in that BS political thread. Why I go back there and read that junk, I have no idea. It's like you can't turn your head away from a car wreck about to happen.
                                                  Please, help me. More questions so I don't find a minute to look. Lolol. I'm better now. Hahaha.

                                                  Thanks JBEX.
                                                  np str

                                                  never think about things like fronts on a first time starter but does seem strange to a novice (me) on things like that . ..guess I don't think about it much when I look at 2nd starters who wore blinkers first out but does seem to me you'd want to get a start in before using them


                                                  on a positive note the dam sire is strict speed and she does have some nice moves sprinkled in along the way..2nd level track also which is probably where she belongs ..like the chances of the 2yo I'm about to post in my thread better


                                                  .
                                                  Comment
                                                  • batt33
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-23-16
                                                    • 5981

                                                    #8215
                                                    Behind the scenes video


                                                    [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Clair de Lune '22 Update[/COLOR]
                                                    We stopped in at Bonnie Acres yesterday morning to check in on your Omaha Beach filly. She has really blossomed and filled into her frame during her time off from training.
                                                    She is currently doing eight minutes on the treadmill daily, and her workload will continue to increase every few days until she reaches 20-minute sessions.
                                                    Enjoy the video above.

                                                    Comment
                                                    • batt33
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-23-16
                                                      • 5981

                                                      #8216

                                                      [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Workout Report
                                                      [/COLOR]
                                                      Caldera turned in another strong this morning at Oak Ridge Training Center, breezing his second three-eighths in :37.30. He went on to gallop out a half-mile in :49.79. Farm trainer Dave Scanlon remains extremely pleased with what your colt has shown at the farm, stating, “He makes it look so easy.”
                                                      While this son of Liam’s Map has plenty of tests ahead of him, we couldn’t be happier with what we are seeing and the feedback we are getting to this point.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • str
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                        • 11601

                                                        #8217
                                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                                        np str

                                                        never think about things like fronts on a first time starter but does seem strange to a novice (me) on things like that . ..guess I don't think about it much when I look at 2nd starters who wore blinkers first out but does seem to me you'd want to get a start in before using them


                                                        on a positive note the dam sire is strict speed and she does have some nice moves sprinkled in along the way..2nd level track also which is probably where she belongs ..like the chances of the 2yo I'm about to post in my thread better


                                                        .
                                                        These Army Mules are for the most part blood and guts gamers that want to compete as you know. Maybe this one needed blinkers first out but unless the horse was unruly , you would think she would be game as can be without them at least initially. But maybe she needed them for other reasons.
                                                        I can’t remember if I put blinkers on any firster ever. Of course I did not train that way so I’m not saying it is wrong at all. It just wasn’t how I learned unless totally necessary.
                                                        Fronts on a firster was very rare to see and I assume still is. I can’t imagine I ever ran a firster with those on. But again, that’s just me.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JBEX
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-02-12
                                                          • 23140

                                                          #8218
                                                          Originally posted by str
                                                          These Army Mules are for the most part blood and guts gamers that want to compete as you know. Maybe this one needed blinkers first out but unless the horse was unruly , you would think she would be game as can be without them at least initially. But maybe she needed them for other reasons.
                                                          I can’t remember if I put blinkers on any firster ever. Of course I did not train that way so I’m not saying it is wrong at all. It just wasn’t how I learned unless totally necessary.
                                                          Fronts on a firster was very rare to see and I assume still is. I can’t imagine I ever ran a firster with those on. But again, that’s just me.
                                                          was a clear 2nd @ 41-1 so guess can't be too harsh on him lol..winner was also clear by 7 lengths @ 1-5
                                                          .. freshman sire of the winner (vekoma) is off to a great start and getting a lot of debut winners (3rd start with this one)


                                                          to be fair an army mule lost at parx today (clm 5k n2..6mo) (saw late) @ 8-5..but to your point,going in was 18-4-5-1 for $78k
                                                          and purchased for $17k ..sure you would agree some nice mileage for an inexpensive purchase



                                                          .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JBEX
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-02-12
                                                            • 23140

                                                            #8219
                                                            one other interesting note..the army mule i mentioned saturday who was about $3k shy of $1M at kentucky downs finished 8th..with a $1.5M purse that put her over lol..might be a record for lowest position finish to go over $1M career earnings


                                                            on a conventional oval she gives it a go every time ..danse macabre
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mrginandtonic
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-11-09
                                                              • 7732

                                                              #8220
                                                              Originally posted by str
                                                              Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words Mr. GandT. Here is what I see and saw. The picture is below:

                                                              What I see : Chancer McPatrick is all business and understands his job in the picture. He seems to know where the finish line is but will wait to make a final judgement when he is in front at the 1/8th pole down the road somewhere. Look at his eyes. All business and focus.

                                                              My thoughts: Knowing now that the rider lost an iron leaving the gate and it took 6-8 seconds to get his foot back in just makes this race even more impressive. I remember saying that stuff like this happens more than fans think, about Deterministic a couple of months ago, because often times you can't see it without binoculars, and even then it can be difficult to spot, especially when coming out of the chute being as it is so far away. But for a 2nd timer to overcome that, come from last and go around everyone, is special. He will be a pleasure to follow through the winter and into the spring.


                                                              What I see in the picture: Ferocious is learning on the fly. He must have enormous talent to run in spots like he does, and run so fast. The fact that he picked it up when the outside horse got to him shows that he was thinking a bit too much for himself during the stretch run. Look at the ears of those two near the wire. C.McP. ears back, all in , full extension and focus. Ferocious, Left ear half way up, kind of thinking while he runs. All you want is for your horse to be thinking about competition and winning, not what's all the fuss about that 's making the people in the grandstand holler. Or, is this what you meant for me to do Mr. rider? He also lost his left front shoe somewhere in the race. Look at the picture and you see no visible shoe on his left front which is up when that picture was taken. All the little things. The old adage, one way to win and a thousand ways to lose. Now look at His eyes. A little less focused like his mind is wandering just a bit. Hope you folks can see that.
                                                              Usually the horse gets one side of the shoe stepped on by the horse next to him. That could have happened leaving the gate, or near the 1/4 pole and that could have been what the horse was thinking about . We have no idea of that now. Hopefully a little bruised at the most or just fine. Typically plenty can win like that but it can get you beat as well. We just don't know.
                                                              More often than not, the horses foot is fine after a couple of days. I hope that is the case.

                                                              My thoughts: He will clean that up. Maybe through putting him in similar positions in the mornings, or maybe a small blinker thing, I don't know the horse at all to say anymore about it, but if he can gain full focus from gate to wire, and keep all four shoes on, Oh my will he be a tough horse to beat down the road. Those top 2 horses are exceptional in my book.


                                                              My thoughts on the horse that ran 3rd: Rosario said afterwards that he thinks going inside might have made the horse a little uneasy. Maybe he was better off to be outside. So he certainly felt a deceleration through the lane. Maybe he was a bit tired. Maybe he was a bit nervous with the kickback and inside claustrophobia, We don't know. But what that is saying is that he is better than he showed from the 1/4 pole home in that race. And a guy like Rosario is not going to just say that, like an excuse. He certainly knows the difference and has no reason to not say, he was 3rd best. So you have to watch out for him as well.

                                                              Three extremely talented 2 year olds that will most likely grow better as they mature. Is that enough to flip the order of finish down the road. Yes, it can be.
                                                              This years 3 year old group has talent no doubt, but next years 3 year old group should be outstanding. I think they will give us a show that you don't see all that often.


                                                              Thanks Mr. GandT.

                                                              Thank you very much, next year Derby will be very interesting!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • str
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 11601

                                                                #8221
                                                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                was a clear 2nd @ 41-1 so guess can't be too harsh on him lol..winner was also clear by 7 lengths @ 1-5
                                                                .. freshman sire of the winner (vekoma) is off to a great start and getting a lot of debut winners (3rd start with this one)


                                                                to be fair an army mule lost at parx today (clm 5k n2..6mo) (saw late) @ 8-5..but to your point,going in was 18-4-5-1 for $78k
                                                                and purchased for $17k ..sure you would agree some nice mileage for an inexpensive purchase



                                                                .
                                                                I do regret being harsh towards that trainer yesterday. My fault, I was letting my foul mood at the moment dictate what I wrote. That was dumb. We have no idea what went wrong in that 1st race but obviously something did. So real nice, but not real surprising that the horse comes back with a solid effort in it's 2nd start. There should be no such thing as an Army Mule that is ever 41-1. that's always a play on price IMO.

                                                                So all in all, I think it is safe to say what we have all along. Army Mule off springs typically run hard and are really honest. Such a cool trait !
                                                                A great find before he started getting too expensive JBEX. Owning a share in him within the first two years would have been a homerun. Real nice job there.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JBEX
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                                  • 23140

                                                                  #8222
                                                                  curious what you think of this.. he only raced 3 times with his final race at 7f in the carter hdcp do you feel based on this performance he could've gone another furlong in quick time or is that too much speculation ?? mile ,as you know, an important distance to be able to get for a stallion and looks like he probably had something left for it ..remember todd saying in an interview that he thought he would be capable of getting a distance of ground


                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • str
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                                    • 11601

                                                                    #8223
                                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                    curious what you think of this.. he only raced 3 times with his final race at 7f in the carter hdcp do you feel based on this performance he could've gone another furlong in quick time or is that too much speculation ?? mile ,as you know, an important distance to be able to get for a stallion and looks like he probably had something left for it ..remember todd saying in an interview that he thought he would be capable of getting a distance of ground


                                                                    I see no reason while looking at the horse running to think he was near tiring. I would strongly suggest that he could have gone a mile out of a chute. And I say chute because we all know about the 2 turn thing.

                                                                    And from the fractions side of things, if going a mile it is not likely they go 22 flat going a mile. He was within 2 1/2 -3 lengths and doing so on his own. Any extra stamina to go a mile would be in reserve IMO because he just would not use that much energy that quickly.

                                                                    Lastly, he only ran 3 times. He was never really totally fit from racing, it was fit from training. I always felt that racing fit was the fittest a horse could be.

                                                                    So from all angles, I would have had no problem thinking he could run very well at a flat mile.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JBEX
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                                      • 23140

                                                                      #8224
                                                                      Originally posted by str
                                                                      I see no reason while looking at the horse running to think he was near tiring. I would strongly suggest that he could have gone a mile out of a chute. And I say chute because we all know about the 2 turn thing.

                                                                      And from the fractions side of things, if going a mile it is not likely they go 22 flat going a mile. He was within 2 1/2 -3 lengths and doing so on his own. Any extra stamina to go a mile would be in reserve IMO because he just would not use that much energy that quickly.

                                                                      Lastly, he only ran 3 times. He was never really totally fit from racing, it was fit from training. I always felt that racing fit was the fittest a horse could be.

                                                                      So from all angles, I would have had no problem thinking he could run very well at a flat mile.
                                                                      all excellent points and I get from the issues DM had that 2 turns can sometimes be a problem ..at least initially anyway

                                                                      yes at a mile probably going to be a bit slower earlier and as you said seemed to be well within himself close to the pace


                                                                      I've learned to appreciate this a lot through you that you can't replace race conditioning with training..he had to do that off a long layoff and should be given credit for that especially at that distance

                                                                      and of course larry colmus saying "and finishing fast" lol

                                                                      have a hunch when those higher fee 2yo's get running in '26 and '27 there might be some really nice horses amongst them

                                                                      thanks str

                                                                      side note to others (told str) .."deterministic" will be running in the "new kent county va derby" at colonial downs tomorrow ..1 1/8 miles turf ..$500k purse

                                                                      it's R10 @ 6:15
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JBEX
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                                        • 23140

                                                                        #8225
                                                                        #3 deterministic (3-1)

                                                                        luke warm favorite in a 12 horse field


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                                                                        Comment
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