an army mule going in R1 @ KD..# 10 bourbon state (30-1) 1:25..don't think adding blinkers going to matter but you never know
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Just watched the race from yesterday. This horse will win. Somewhere and not against this quality in all probability but the horse has absolutely no idea what it is supposed to be doing JBEX. He is totally in a fog.
This one needs to work ( not workout, but work everyday by being in sets and learning to win by a head, neck whatever. Just gallops can achieve that.)in the morning daily with other horses or at least one other. Two would be better. He ( she)?? needs to be taught to understand that you run to win. This horse is running to catch up because it is afraid of being alone. Poor horse has no idea what the hell is going on. Competition is lost on this horse but maybe this race helped because through the stretch, when taken outside and ridden hard, tried to catch and did catch a couple of horses. But from the gate to the stretch if this horse could speak it would have said, what the hell??
Has no idea but I don't think there is a breathing Army Mule that won't compete. It just needs to understand what that actually is. I would have loved to had a horse like that when I was there. The ones I had similar were just so slow that is all they could do. This one honestly had no idea what was coming and how to play the game. But yesterday late in the race might have turned on the light. We shall see. And please, give this horse some friggin class relief. They have a license to steal at this point. Use it or lose it.
That's what I saw.Last edited by str; 09-12-24, 08:17 AM.Comment -
seems by what your saying it's a combination of getting him (is a colt) ready mentally and placing him right..maybe they just wanted to collect a check (nice one because of the purse) and get him some experience and fitness for a realistic placement .. I have to think it's a good possibility they knew he wasn't going to be competitive in that race ..should be said it was a restricted msw (horses sold <$50k) which is why purse was $100k vs the opens getting $170k..big difference but still too much for him
towards the end of the month and early oct the two ohio tracks and horseshoe each have a race that would fit ..churchill has nothing but kee has a couple of bottom level ($30k..was careful for 2yo males) mcl sprints over the course of their 3 week meet..october probably more realistic after running yesterday
sure you would have gotten the most out of him and loved the challenge,given the opportunity to work with himComment -
Q. it's a combination of getting him (is a colt) ready mentally and placing him right..
A. Exactly. But the trainer , IMO, needs to help the horse out with class relief which he can do now because of the very poor form. If he runs 2nd or 3rd at a high price claimer, the horse resets his value and he is stuck there. If he is going to find a soft spot, this is the perfect time IMO.
Q.maybe they just wanted to collect a check (nice one because of the purse) and get him some experience and fitness for a realistic placement .. I have to think it's a good possibility they knew he wasn't going to be competitive in that race ..should be said it was a restricted msw (horses sold <$50k) which is why purse was $100k vs the opens getting $170k..big difference but still too much for him
A. I can reasonably give the trainer a pass with going blks. ON the other day. But with that chart line now, help the horse out, both in the morning and in the afternoon. That is how I see it.
Q. towards the end of the month and early oct the two ohio tracks and horseshoe each have a race that would fit ..churchill has nothing but kee has a couple of bottom level ($30k..was careful for 2yo males) mcl sprints over the course of their 3 week meet..october probably more realistic after running yesterday
A. I don't know if this trainer has a full outfit of horses but Maiden 30 k would be fine or a lesser track all together. I do not think this horse is a bum at all. I think he needs to be taught how to win in the morning, be put in all different situations in the morning, ( inside and tight, outside, in between, everything plus gate work to correct whatever is going on there. Make sure he is not bleeding, having trouble breathing, his feet are fine, no ailments anywhere,... everything. In my mind I would have a plan that this horse wins no later than his next three starts and improves with each one. I would aim to win his next out. And allow for him to get beat as long as he performs and runs a respectable race. But my aim would be don't run him back until he is sitting on a positive training experience leading up to and ready to roll.
And I would not run him again, anywhere, until he was. That next race needs to count. IMO. He would be a huge priority in my mind for the next 4 weeks or so. That's how I did it and that's what I would make sure happened. Hope it does JBEX.Comment -
from churchill,belterra park and horseshoe are a little over 100 miles..thistledown more of a haul @ 350 and of course kee right nearby..really had no idea of those distances although I do know Louisville not too far from Clincinnati..so 2 of the 3 out-of -state tracks aren't far away which couldn't be a bad thing ..fairly certain that the 30k mcl's at kee would be tougher than msw at btp,tdn and probably on par with horseshoe
also after kee is done about a week break and churchill resumes..be lots of opportunities that aren't too far away if he's up for itComment -
upon further research it's less likely to be an ohio track..low purses and seems they are much more geared to ohio breds as even in open races they are preferred runners...don't know if horseshoe has the same preferences for statebreds ..my guess would be no,so could still be a possibility there..plenty of opportunities in ky through the end of the year and I'll add to that turfway park which starts in december
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Q. .fairly certain that the 30k mcl's at kee would be tougher than msw at btp,tdn and probably on par with horseshoe
I do get it that where this trainer ships to is most likely where his next start will be. And if I could avoid a van ride to a new place on race day, I most certainly would. This horse has a lot of work to do. So does the trainer. Adding a new atmosphere is taking away from the horses " best chance to perform at his peak or close to it". That again, is all I would be focused on. I guess what I am saying is if you are ever going to , as a trainer, and IMO, show a horse respect, and if you are by Army Mule, you damn well deserve it IMO, than spotting this next race should be of the highest priority. Maybe that's just me, but I can feel it as I type it, that it would be my number 1 priority for this horse. And you can have a barn full of horses, and have a strong focus on a maidens next out. Yes, you have a lot of horses, but when I did, as I went down my list of horses that I had somewhat categorized, when I got to that horse, those next 3- 5-10 minutes or what ever it took time wise, that horse for that period was all I was thinking about. Do that every single day, for every horse, and it rarely takes 10 minutes. After a while, sometimes 30 seconds. But we are talking about winning. Just winning.
Guess I am going overboard with this one but jeez, give the damn horse a chance to perform .
If md. 30k at Ky. is the top claimer, how about md. 25? I don't remember what they paid for the horse so I guess that comes into play somewhat but I can't stress enough that this horse should be competing somewhere and I find it frustrating that he is not able to. Is it the horse? Trainer? Or something else? Whatever it is, fix it !
Thinking like that takes a lot of stuff out of play. Just win, or at least compete. It just isn't that hard JBEX.
GRRR. Lol, I'm keyed up about this guy. I love me some Army Mule.Comment -
believe it's 30k at both big ky tracks and he only cost $35k so it's a good fit relative to price ..I really think it was just getting him some experience and they were hoping for a little more in both starts..do at least some of the right things and possibly he wakes up at $30k or at least a much improved effort..maybe winds up being a good turfway park (tapeta surface) runner as army mule's seem to be able to run well on turf also..will try and keep an eye out for him
on a separate note rick dutrow has horses
in the 1st 3 races at baq , one in the last race and two in R7 @ laurel ..1st at aqu he has two (2yo) first time starters and one of them is by into mischief out of a tapit mare..that could be anything.. #5 alias (6-1)
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CD R10 Owen Almighty
Not sure he's been mentioned before but 2/2 and looks like the real deal to my eyes??Comment -
Q. I really think it was just getting him some experience and they were hoping for a little more in both starts.
A. You are probably right. I guess that is my disconnect. I did run firsters that had no pressure to win a lot. It was not my game to do that. But I always tried to build forward off that 1st start. And maybe, in their mind, adding blinkers was going to be a real step forward. I cannot knock that. But now, after that last race, albeit against a very talented group in all probability, as a trainer, he has to make it work. That's just me though.
As for the pricing, if he costs 35k and two bad races, run him for 25k. And hopefully avoid what is really a Md. 50k being made competitive because of the high purses. Guess I should do some homework on the trainer. He might have 40 horses, or 2. IDK. Guess I just want him to give this horse a chance to show what he can do.
Please do keep an eye out if you can JBEX. Thanks.Comment -
Not sure how many Ricky has now. I was trying to go to Keenland today for a few days and spend time with Tony and his wife but I have something I can't miss on Tuesday so I had to scratch. He will start looking to buy today . They are just too expensive to buy until book 6. That is incredible but that's the game today. He will come home with 2 or 3 probably. Fillies almost certainly but we will know soon enough.
I need to get caught up on what's what. Don't want to wait until next year at Saratoga but might have to. We will see.
Thanks for the heads up with Rick. He won a million dollar race last week at Ky. downs. That's crazy money there. So did Mark Reid as an owner. Spoke with Mark on the phone the other day . First time in maybe 10 years. Hasn't changed a bit. Lol. You guys would really like these guys. Lol.Thanks again JBEX.Comment -
think the horse I mentioned in R1 ran the way you said he likes them to in debuts ..finished strong at the end and ran 2nd
if i did the search right i don't believe there are any army mule's there this year and as you know there have been some prices over the past few years..believe his yearlings this year were for a $7.5k fee and before the public could see the success on the track of his 1st crop ..dropoff makes sense to me and there might be a better crop of yearlings next year as they'll be from the 1st of 3 consecutive years of fee increasesComment -
2027 should be interesting..army mule $25k fee 2yo's and guessing there might be a few kingsbarns's at the kee fall yearling salesComment -
Q. think the horse I mentioned in R1 ran the way you said he likes them to in debuts ..finished strong at the end and ran 2nd
A. it is just how we were taught. We don't tighten the screws on a firster.
Heck, we wish they all won but they really were not pushed to that extent as a firster. That goes for anyone from the Dutrow tree.
Tony and Rick, and a bunch more. We all seem to do the same thing. Think we all respected Dickie? Hahaha.
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Guess I should have saved with the ex.Comment -
When a better horse runs a better race, you just get beat. That is how I have always looked at it. Your horse ran well. Not good enough to win, but ran well. I look at that like, ok, he showed up and was 2nd best. And I move on. Easier said than done sometimes right?
As for savers, I never kept track of the exact amount actually saved or spent on savers. And personally, I did not use them very often. I felt like I was tying up more into the race than I wanted to in many cases.
Taking it further, and again, just my feelings towards them , if I bet a 5-2 shot and a another short price horse just was better, I have usually said to myself earlier before the race that I realize this horse could beat me but I am going to bet my horse and if I lose, I lose.
Assuming the horse that beat you was another favorite or short price, I wonder if the actual amount saved would ,over time, pay back enough to make it worth while in the long run? I know that in the moment, it might feel right, but is it mathematically sound in the long run?
No matter if it is right or wrong on any given situation, I always figured that risking the extra , let's say 20 bucks to save on another fairly short price, would be in the negative over time. Just my way of looking at it. It is acceptable though because your main bet did win.
But if I bet let's say an 8-1 shot to win and I was fearful of a short price horse being too much even if my horse ran it's best, then what I would do is bet my 8-1 shot to win, and maybe play a straight favorite I am scared of on top of mine only as a saver in a straight exacta.
Providing the payout had at least some value to it.
So let's say I bet 20 to win on that 8-1 shot. If it wins, I'm ok with giving 10 bucks back that I saved with the exacta. But if the payout is not so good, I let it go. Why? Because in the long run, while it might make me feel good to get my money back this time, over time, it is , because of that lower than it should be payout if I do hit it, it will not pay enough to pay for saving over the long haul. As we are getting older, the long haul is always what we were playing for in the first place. We just might not have recognized it when we were younger. That said, I get that I have weird takes on things sometimes, but I try and make it all come back to value over time.
I never measured any single day at the track when I won or lost as either or. It was an ongoing total that I was trying to get to. By doing that, it took the emotion of the days event out of the play ( like wanting to get even on the day), and it turned into a long running figure. I think, because we all feel like we want to get even every time we are down on any given day, it takes that impulse away as best it can, and allows you to not over bet late in the card if you find yourself wanting to chase.
For me, that kept me rational throughout the card and helped me fight off that, get even mentality that can cost players more than it should have on those days when it is tough to find the winners circle.
Hope that makes sense Madison. I don't know if that will help anyone else or not but it did, and still does work for me.
All the best sir.Comment -
I never measured any single day at the track when I won or lost as either or. It was an ongoing total that I was trying to get to. By doing that, it took the emotion of the days event out of the play ( like wanting to get even on the day), and it turned into a long running figure. I think, because we all feel like we want to get even every time we are down on any given day, it takes that impulse away as best it can, and allows you to not over bet late in the card if you find yourself wanting to chase.
Great advice that I needed to learn to survive at an early age. I also thought people who doubled or tripled their wagers because they were ahead, were just as foolish. My wagering amounts were almost always calculated before I entered the track.
Always appreciated.Comment -
hey str
the army mule who ran 11 days ago at horseshoe and finished 2nd @ 41-1 is going in R5 @ cd
#10 wisconsin gal (10-1)
@ 2:45Comment -
This is the horse that I went off on the trainer after start one. I shouldn't have done that but I did see that the fronts came off after that first race disaster and now she has been 2nd her last two starts at high prices. Still breaking slow it seems. And I know nothing about that 7 pound bug rider.
Nice to see yet another Army Mule running their hearts out.
So this horse, as it improves, is getting put in tougher races each time? I don't know those racetracks but I can see the purse size. If so, I still have a bit of a bone to pick with the training portion of all this and a question, not necessarily a criticism of the 7 pound apprentice choice for all three races but an Army Mule will seemingly overcome just about everything if you give it a chance.
Sorry I missed this yesterday. Appreciate the heads up as always.Comment -
no problem str
it was restricted to horses who were sold for <= $50k..still would say a step up but not nearly the level of opens ..don't think they have any of those at kee but there are 4 mcl races for the boys ..maybe they'll give it a go there..as you say and i agree .. AM offspring are generally competitors at all the levels they run at
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Got busy with some fire stuff for a bit... back now.... some updates
[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Straight No Chaser Workout Report
[/COLOR]https://youtu.be/ZIAKYoCbL5k[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)][/COLOR]Straight No Chaser breezed a half mile in :47.60(4/124) this morning from the gate at Santa Anita Park under assistant trainer Juan Landeros. Originally, trainer Dan Blacker had planned on holding off the gate work until next week but opted to do it this weekend.
Dan’s provided his thoughts on the work, “Solo work from the gate. Broke sharp and breezed a half mile in even fractions while in hand. He picked up some company on the gallop out but the rider eased him back intentionally.”
Everything remains on schedule for the Santa Anita Sprint Championship and Straight No Chaser will have one final breeze next Sunday
https://youtu.be/ZIAKYoCbL5k
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[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Seize the Grey Workout Report
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Seize the Grey had his final breeze in preparation for the G1 Pennsylvania Derby this morning at Saratoga, covering five furlongs in :59.20 over the Oklahoma training track. Since this was his final work, the son of Arrogate was asked to finish up, which he did nicely in the late stages. He galloped out well and came back to the barn in good order. Nominations for the $1-million G1 Pennsylvania Derby were released this week, which you can see above. Probables can be seen here. Seize the Grey is expected to ship to Parx on Tuesday and we will follow up with more once he arrives.
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[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Real Savvy Update
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We checked in with trainer Christophe Clement who reported Real Savvy continues to do well since his second-place effort on August 30th. Christophe plans on targeting the next NY-bred maiden special weight on September 22nd at Belmont at the Big A.
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low figure,poor trainer,perception of cd vs horseshoe (including huge purse difference) even with the restrictions all contribute to lack of respect on the toteboard imo.
I think the mcl 30k's @ kee are going to be much tougher than avg with trainers dropping and wanting to win there ..could see taking a shot at them though with what will probably higher than normal purses
considering he's only a 2yo no reason to rush things imo..being army mule's seem to like the grass really think he might take to the tapeta surface at turfway park which starts in decemberComment -
It seems like somewhat of a shame that this horse cannot find class relief unless he runs at a lesser track. Just bad timing I guess. I would not want to drop this horse into 30k claiming when in actuality, the horse is most likely running against the same or even a little better quality of horse. I would rather run MSW at a lesser venue.
It is not the purse that I am even thinking about. It is the necessity, in my view, that needs to be addressed. Horses usually improve off winning. Who doesn't right? They know they won. And it shows in the feed tub, the horses bounce around the barn, all sorts of ways. So the mental angle really comes into play with this, at least in my view.
I like to repeat every couple of years ( months) lol, I don't know, that I remember saying, that with horses, it seemed easier to win 3 in a row with a horse then it was 2 in a row. Sounds crazy, but for me, I felt it was often times true. Mainly because the horse is mentally improving quite a bit from win 2 to win 3. Just like us when we hit a winning streak, they were bouncing around eager to work. Stood a little taller, ate a little better, trained a little more focused. All the little things that we have all felt sometime. They are no different.
But in this horses case, what is the point in running for Md. 30 and even if he wins, where do you run back? An A other than? Not there I don't think.
Seems if this horse was in Md. for instance, he could win a high Md. claimer, an A other than, and probably off those two races, be able to compete in a 2 other then. They paid 30k for the horse but it seems to me he is at a too high quality a track to find a fair spot without getting claimed. I know I would claim him if I was looking and he checked all the boxes physically.
Which takes me briefly off topic to point out yet again that as a trainer with real responsibilities, am I watching replays, and scouting this horse as he walks over the day of the race, watching his every move warming up, running, pulling up, etc. or am I taking time away from that to make a 20.00 exacta box in the race? Of course, we all know the answer but we also know that the majority of people that bet assume I would be worried about betting 50 or 100 bucks more than I would be worried about the 30k plus tax, so 32,500 I was risking on that horse. But, I digress.
So anyway, it will be interesting where this horse lands next out. Please keep an eye out for him JBEX. He has my attention at this point.
Thanks JBEX.Comment -
Looks like this could be a decent spot for him. Will look at the pp's when they come out.[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Seize the Grey Workout Report
[/COLOR]
Seize the Grey had his final breeze in preparation for the G1 Pennsylvania Derby this morning at Saratoga, covering five furlongs in :59.20 over the Oklahoma training track. Since this was his final work, the son of Arrogate was asked to finish up, which he did nicely in the late stages. He galloped out well and came back to the barn in good order. Nominations for the $1-million G1 Pennsylvania Derby were released this week, which you can see above. Probables can be seen here. Seize the Grey is expected to ship to Parx on Tuesday and we will follow up with more once he arrives.
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When you think you've seen it all:
Belterra R7 #7 Who Dey. Recent's are competitive 275K - 600K STK. Today 19K ALLowance.
This has to be some sort of mistake no?Comment