Horse Racing questions and answers

[batt33]

really amazing batt .. only good thing is it's something he's familiar with


senza parole was darn impressive ..with a top class route pedigree to do that first out as a 2yo is amazing .. no telling what he could develop into .. the barn of follows is getting very crowded


another by gun runner as is HN and WR

is it too early to think Kentucky oaks? Bet the owners are... uhm if I was an owner so would I...!

[JBEX]

sure it's on their mind with that pedigree..I assume the next race will be either the frizette at aqu or the darley alcibiades at kee (both 1st week of october).. possibly kee will have an allowance race also so that would be another option .. this type of race at kee is like a minor stakes this time of the year

[str]

Plenty to unpack today.

I will do my best to catch up.

[str]

thanks str



do you think it's possible seeing the 1st turn come up so quick might have prompted the aggressiveness to get there ..also factoring how different the 1 turn mile layout is when she relaxed more ? DM had similar issues to this when first introduced to two turns in the wood which was also preceded by a 1 turn mile in the gotham ..but he doesn't have the early speed HN appears to have and finished way out of it if I remember correctly..to be fair DM had to do it in a grade 2 while HN was only a n1x alw which is obviously a big thing with learning something new

I would think there might be a silver lining to this .. with experience if they're able to get her to relax you know she has good acceleration to get position early in a race ..but understand the other part that you brought up that the speed mindset doesn't necessarily just go away


I have a hunch she will learn from this experience especially since she was able to relax and come off the pace in her debut.. maybe back to a 1 turn mile at aqueduct would be a good thing if they have one for n2x or possibly a listed stakes.. maybe 7f but not 6 or 6.5 imo.. possibly give her a rest till gulfstream winter meet .. worked well with KB and his time off was much longer than that .. lots of options and top connections ,just like KB,so sure they'll make the right call ..I'm certainly a little biased (as I was with the others lol) but I think she's going to settle in and become something really good

With all but a precious few horses, the difference between their 1st race and their 2nd race is drastic. When they come over for the first time their experience is what they have done previously. So, maybe walk around the paddock. No saddle though, no noise from the crowd, no ton of people around the paddock or in the paddock. So all that is brand new. When they finally get out on the track, they are in more familiar territory. It's where they are every morning. So they can relax a bit . Then, in this horses case, when the gates broke, she fell into workout mode, all she ever knew, right? So again, she handled it.
But the 2nd time she comes over, she has run once. She knows what is going on and that has to raise the blood pressure at least some. /again, though, they are all different at least a little. Then, she loads in a gate on to her, the wrong side of the track. She thinks WTF? The crowd is loud, she thinks what's up with that? She loads and breaks and if she is not more fired up from those events, she is exceptionally bright as that is rare. Also, there are not 1,000 people on the track apron in the morning and definitely not near the gate when she has ever gone in it.

So IMO, she got tired from the mental work put in more so than the distance.

So it makes sense that she breaks sharper and instead of settling like I am sure with all her talent, she did each time she worked, she breaks sharp and gets caught up in the moment and wants to fire out instead of being cool and chiilin while waiting instructions from her rider.
Nothing beats experience, in anything, as we all know. So if you look at it that way, about everything she did made sense, at least to her it did. That is why there are 3-5 shots and there are 3-5 shots. No bettor is going to think pf that because they have not seen it from the horses side of things. So, understanding which 3-5 shot has more actual long term value when betting, while really important, is not something many players will be able to realize unless they are around someone who has done this stuff for a living or, a bettor that really sees things differently than most.
It's what makes it so much fun for me to watch and then report back in here. I want you guys to see this stuff as well and more importantly, understand what you saw. It's really quite fascinating and I appreciate the opportunity to be able to show you.
A win, win for all of us.

I will reread this because there was a bunch of stuff and add more on another post if needed.

Thanks JBEX.

[str]

lot's going on


two other things


2yo msw nyb impressive debut winner (11+ L) in R1 yesterday..final time < 4 ticks off what 4yo + oc 80k alw n3xot (tough) males ran later in the card ..qualifies on my expensive purchase requirement also .. last but not least it was a filly !


world record goes in the allen jerkens (g1) tomorrow..drew the rail for the 4th straight time lol

R12 #1 (8-1) @ 5:30






.

Yeah, what the heck. Let's throw her in the stable as well. Why not .Lol.


World Record. Well that's a salty group isn't it? Course, so is he. And the rail yet again. Guess I have seen that before but I don't recall it.
That's crazy.

[JBEX]

Plenty to unpack today.

I will do my best to catch up.

yes..thinking (besides HN) that fillies are going to be a less serious follow for me..note when they're running but not go over like the others we do ...too much to do..that excludes following the two recent ones from yesterday and thursday .. also takes into account that you might not agree all are worth a follow str


I personally like the idea that a good career could lead them to be sires and that makes it worth the extra attention ..feel free to give your opinion str..no rush and could even be next week as it's busy today

[str]

thanks str



do you think it's possible seeing the 1st turn come up so quick might have prompted the aggressiveness to get there ..also factoring how different the 1 turn mile layout is when she relaxed more ? DM had similar issues to this when first introduced to two turns in the wood which was also preceded by a 1 turn mile in the gotham ..but he doesn't have the early speed HN appears to have and finished way out of it if I remember correctly..to be fair DM had to do it in a grade 2 while HN was only a n1x alw which is obviously a big thing with learning something new

I would think there might be a silver lining to this .. with experience if they're able to get her to relax you know she has good acceleration to get position early in a race ..but understand the other part that you brought up that the speed mindset doesn't necessarily just go away


I have a hunch she will learn from this experience especially since she was able to relax and come off the pace in her debut.. maybe back to a 1 turn mile at aqueduct would be a good thing if they have one for n2x or possibly a listed stakes.. maybe 7f but not 6 or 6.5 imo.. possibly give her a rest till gulfstream winter meet .. worked well with KB and his time off was much longer than that .. lots of options and top connections ,just like KB,so sure they'll make the right call ..I'm certainly a little biased (as I was with the others lol) but I think she's going to settle in and become something really good

Yes. The experience will do her a world of good.

I think the one turn mile would be perfect. But, this time of year it is hard to not look to the breeders Cup races, where legends are made. That is a temptation that has ruined more than it has helped most likely, but I do get it.

So we just need to wait and see what is in store next. Sometimes the owners can be harder to train than the horses. Wait, scratch sometimes and make that many times. I respect that, but it is really difficult around this time of year with the BC coming up to be patient.

[JBEX]

yes..thinking (besides HN) that fillies are going to be a less serious follow for me..note when they're running but not go over like the others we do ...too much to do..that excludes following the two recent ones from yesterday and thursday .. also takes into account that you might not agree all are worth a follow str


I personally like the idea that a good career could lead them to be sires and that makes it worth the extra attention ..feel free to give your opinion str..no rush and could even be next week as it's busy today

just want to note that I put this up before seeing your last post ..see what you think next week or today if you want..no rush

[str]

Hey STR want to get your take on the filly taking on the boys in racing. Thorpedo Anna will do just that next SAT in the Travers. I like the move as I think it adds intrigue to the game. What say you and was it something that was done at all much in your era? THX.

Ok EZ, let's look at this race.

Nine total starts by the field at this distance of 1 1/4 miles. two wins, two 2nds and one 3rd.

The filly has not tried it yet. And that is OK but in a perfect world, it would have been nice to see it. That said, I do applaud the connections for giving it a try. Would I have done it? Thinking back to my mind frame, pun intended, I do not think I would have. Of course, I am assuming I would have won the Alabama in a gallop which is not actually reasonable . I would have babied the crap out of her, and tried to run the table by dominating. But that's just me. There is no right or wrong answer I don't think. At least not until it is too late.

She looks on paper that she will have her work cut out for her. I think she will need her best race to date, to win. So will the others though.

The pace will be very interesting. Plenty of horses want an up front type position. Not having to be on the lead necessarily, but right up there. The filly will want that. So will the 3 horse who Chad could very well use as a rabbit to set a crazy pace. Never know but he can.

The 4 horse likes to be within three lengths early. Certainly the 5 does. The 6 drops back but the 7 and the 8 both want to be well up there early. And while you can never know for sure about the pace, I cannot clearly see a path to anything but a faster than all parties want it to be type pace. The one post will put pressure on the filly to stay somewhat forward even if it's behind the leaders a couple of lengths. But, I do not see a breather on that pace anywhere on the form. If there is, that will really benefit those up front but I'll be darned if I can identify it on paper.

So for me, it sets up for some leg weary horses through the lane, which bodes well if that happens for Sierra Leone and Honor Marie with 1st time blinkers. Both of those two are at the mercy of the front end pace. Not a damn thing they can do about it except hope it is quick.

A really intriguing race with the filly in it EZ. I think that intrigue makes the race as cool as it is. And I do tip my cap to the connections for trying this. She is a 40k yearling purchase. Already earned 1.9 Million. And I would say, nothing to lose, but in this game, there is always something to lose and nothing can be taken for granted.

That's my view of it EZ. Who do you like?

Heck, who does everyone like? Post it !

Cool race.

Thanks EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx for the run down on the Travers. Interesting take. I am playing an HT full card SPA Game and tailed David Aragona the NYRA Linemaker. So I have not looked over the PP's for the race and I am using his #3. Your take gives me cause for concern but will ride with his pick. I am also Playing DMR R3-10 HT game and I will cap that contest. Good luck if you put any coins down. THX again.

[str]

OK STR thx for the run down on the Travers. Interesting take. I am playing an HT full card SPA Game and tailed David Aragona the NYRA Linemaker. So I have not looked over the PP's for the race and I am using his #3. Your take gives me cause for concern but will ride with his pick. I am also Playing DMR R3-10 HT game and I will cap that contest. Good luck if you put any coins down. THX again.

Just looked again. Rabbit is a little strong. That 3 horse has a lot of upside to him. He is no " does not belong in the race " horse at all. I feel the pace could get hot, and if so, that should be an edge to the closers. But in a race like this, those riders all know that already. I can't imagine them all cooking their horses for the lead when probably none of them have to be in front. But, it does look like the pace could get lively and that has to help closers. You just don't know EZ. That said, I would much prefer to be betting a pace horse like the 3 who will almost have to have value on the board with Dornoch, Fierceness, and even the filly, being pounded at the windows. I am good with that strategy. What I don't see me doing is playing Dornach, Fierceness, or the filly at lower odds with what could be a tangled up front end.

Tough thing about betting Sierra Leone types is they are at the mercy of that pace. If it is not that hot, they are deeply compromised. So for there sake, it better be at least somewhat quick and the quicker the better.

Stay with your play IMO. As you have heard me say before, I have the ultimate respect for David Aragona. He is excellent.

GL EZ !

[JBEX]

I like honor marie str ..I'm always willing to forgive the derby and his result in it wasn't horrible..fg race looks like a really wide trip on a sloppy track (although did run well on one in start 2)..other than that figures seem to improve every time and should be a pace to close into today..tyler replaces geroux
and although the latter's certainly solid, former is more familiar with this track..maybe blinkers added helps with the slow starts ..take at a big price




.

[JBEX]

question came to mind..do you think when riders get on a bomb in big races that there's less pressure because the expectations are a little lower..freedom to make more decisions and use your own judgment vs being on a logical choice





.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Just looked again. Rabbit is a little strong. That 3 horse has a lot of upside to him. He is no " does not belong in the race " horse at all. I feel the pace could get hot, and if so, that should be an edge to the closers. But in a race like this, those riders all know that already. I can't imagine them all cooking their horses for the lead when probably none of them have to be in front. But, it does look like the pace could get lively and that has to help closers. You just don't know EZ. That said, I would much prefer to be betting a pace horse like the 3 who will almost have to have value on the board with Dornoch, Fierceness, and even the filly, being pounded at the windows. I am good with that strategy. What I don't see me doing is playing Dornach, Fierceness, or the filly at lower odds with what could be a tangled up front end.

Tough thing about betting Sierra Leone types is they are at the mercy of that pace. If it is not that hot, they are deeply compromised. So for there sake, it better be at least somewhat quick and the quicker the better.

Stay with your play IMO. As you have heard me say before, I have the ultimate respect for David Aragona. He is excellent.

GL EZ !

OK STR good deal. Yeah Aragona is sharp no doubt. Enjoy the races. see what happens today in NY

[str]

I like honor marie str ..I'm always willing to forgive the derby and his result in it wasn't horrible..fg race looks like a really wide trip on a sloppy track (although did run well on one in start 2)..other than that figures seem to improve every time and should be a pace to close into today..tyler replaces geroux
and although the latter's certainly solid, former is more familiar with this track..maybe blinkers added helps with the slow starts ..take at a big price




.

Sure. It should set up well and blks. on rarely hurts. It could have him more anxious to "go when asked" which would give him a jump on Sierra.
It's about value and if you take the side of fast pace, look for a closer, at the price, and blks. on, he is hard to not take over Sierra who will be a short price as usual.

I totally get it.

GL JBEX.

[Madison]

World record on the rail again???? good grief....
and talking about maidens the #3 horse in the first race today..... pretty impressive also "Senza Parole"

World Record, although I'm a fan, may meet her maker today. Tough crowd.

[str]

is it too early to think Kentucky oaks? Bet the owners are... uhm if I was an owner so would I...!

Oh man, it is Never too early to think abut Ky. if you are an owner. You pay the bills, I say dream away.

Dreams are free but per day bills are not, as you well know.

Dream away Batt.

And one of yours has already come true ! Just awesome.

[str]

World Record, although I'm a fan, may meet her maker today. Tough crowd.

Really difficult race Madison. Tough crowd to say the least.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR JOINED ANOTHER HT games races 7-14 SPA. Used your and JBEX lean the #6 in the Travers. good luck to us.

[batt33]

World Record, although I'm a fan, may meet her maker today. Tough crowd.

and pravien jumps off to ride our other "SBR" horse DM who I like a little better

[batt33]

Oh man, it is Never too early to think abut Ky. if you are an owner. You pay the bills, I say dream away.

Dreams are free but per day bills are not, as you well know.

Dream away Batt.

And one of yours has already come true ! Just awesome.

So true so true STR!

Like you said with every horse you had/ trained.... you always dream.... and yes.... I was VERY VERY lucky to have one come true not only to win a race but move on!

[batt33]

Just looked again. Rabbit is a little strong. That 3 horse has a lot of upside to him. He is no " does not belong in the race " horse at all. I feel the pace could get hot, and if so, that should be an edge to the closers. But in a race like this, those riders all know that already. I can't imagine them all cooking their horses for the lead when probably none of them have to be in front. But, it does look like the pace could get lively and that has to help closers. You just don't know EZ. That said, I would much prefer to be betting a pace horse like the 3 who will almost have to have value on the board with Dornoch, Fierceness, and even the filly, being pounded at the windows. I am good with that strategy. What I don't see me doing is playing Dornach, Fierceness, or the filly at lower odds with what could be a tangled up front end.

Tough thing about betting Sierra Leone types is they are at the mercy of that pace. If it is not that hot, they are deeply compromised. So for there sake, it better be at least somewhat quick and the quicker the better.

Stay with your play IMO. As you have heard me say before, I have the ultimate respect for David Aragona. He is excellent.

GL EZ !

Hmm who do I like ....thinking a closer # 2 and #6

thinking of playing a trifecta
2,6
1,3,7,8
1,3,7,8

[JBEX]

I think WR is the speed of the speed and prat riding the other is because he's Chad's number #1 and won aboard that horse by 7+ lengths last out ..imo no way he's getting off him..unbiased opinion like his chances

[JBEX]

I think WR is the speed of the speed and prat riding the other ,imo, is because he's Chad's number #1 and won aboard that horse by 7+ lengths last out ..no way he's getting off imo

[JBEX]

I think WR is the speed of the speed and pratt riding the other ,imo, is because he's Chad's number #1 and won aboard that horse by 7+ lengths last out ..

[batt33]

I think WR is the speed of the speed and pratt riding the other ,imo, is because he's Chad's number #1 and won aboard that horse by 7+ lengths last out ..

No argument here! Prat wins with brisset in the forego..... 2 for 2 in one of my pick fours.... 1,3, 5,8 with the 1,2,7

[batt33]

and pravien jumps off to ride our other "SBR" horse DM who I like a little better

yeppers!

[batt33]

Interesting Daily double payoffs to the Travers

1 35.00
2 13.30
7 37
8 34

[mrginandtonic]

Thorpedo Anna came so closed…. She was my pick on HT….. so closed

[JBEX]

and pravien jumps off to ride our other "SBR" horse DM who I like a little better

little confused by this..thought you meant he came off WR to ride Domestic Product which he did ..but DM (deterministic ) ??

[str]

OK STR JOINED ANOTHER HT games races 7-14 SPA. Used your and JBEX lean the #6 in the Travers. good luck to us.

Thorpedo Anna came so closed…. She was my pick on HT….. so closed

Sorry EZ. The longshot was outrun with no excuse that I saw.


Thorpedo Anna... All I can say is hats off to her !! She ran a tremendous race. It is great for the game to see this every now and then. She did not disappoint. She is as game as they come. She really impressed me with that effort more so than some of her wins.

Fierceness finally strung two efforts together. We knew going in he was probably the best horse on every horses best day, but he had run several clunkers after solid efforts without visible excuses. He put it all together yesterday. And glad to see that he doesn't need 10 weeks between starts. That sounds crazy too me. But it's a different game today in some aspects from the one I played it seems.

When they hung the 1/2 mile time in 48, Sierra Leone was in a world of trouble. It is hard to bet on a favorite like he always is, knowing he needs help from several others to be able to win. There is no value in that. The value is playing against him in the win slot when he is bet like that. While still a real nice horse, things have to go well up front for him. Too many ifs at a bet down price to fool with that I think. He will win somewhere, but with a style that relies on others to help him, there is usually value elsewhere.
Of course, we all no what happens if too many people decide that at the same time. That's right, he wins and pays 14.00. Lol. You can't say that this game doesn't keep you on your toes year round can you?

Very nice pick Mr. GandT. She is as solid and consistent as they come. Well done sir. And she cost 40k. That is great to see.

[Easy-Rider 66]

NO worries STR. would not have made a difference in the game as I got crushed. Aragona had a bad day. It happens. Back tailing him again at the SPA on SUN. THX for your takes.

[JBEX]

couple observations on world record

1st and 2nd call repectively 2 and 3 ticks faster than older horses in the forego race before

even with all the speed #4 showed in his last race which was a nyb alw n1x @ 1 mile couldn't figure him to go with WR

held pretty well .. factoring his lengths behind @ 6f mark he got it in 1:09¹l


think another (like KB) who could benefit from a rest and reset..whether they can get him to relax or not it would probably do him some good anyway..like your thoughts when you get a chance

[Madison]

Gambling is a funny occupation. I was wrong yesterday with Thorpedo Anna. Keyed Fierceness and Sierra/Marie etc under him. Thank the gods I cashed the win $ and a small exacta.

The funny or sad part is that many of my bigger scores have been heart crushing beats. One of the worst (Late 80's) was I bet $1400 on a dog and cashed for $2800. The problem is I got beat by a nose by a dog who was 1 win in 20 starts, but 15 2nd's and 3rd's. I had $400 win on the loser of the photo @ 4-1 and absolutely pounded the tri 8 over the 2.

Apologies for the long winded cry but memories seem to persist.

[Madison]

Gambling is a funny occupation. I was wrong yesterday with Thorpedo Anna. Keyed Fierceness and Sierra/Marie etc under him. Thank the gods I cashed the win $ and a small exacta.

The funny or sad part is that many of my bigger scores have been heart crushing beats. One of the worst (Late 80's) was I bet $1400 on a dog and cashed for $2800. The problem is I got beat by a nose by a dog who was 1 win in 20 starts, but 15 2nd's and 3rd's. I had $400 win on the loser of the photo @ 4-1 and absolutely pounded the tri 8 over the 2.

Apologies for the long winded cry but memories seem to persist.

No disrespect to Thorpedo, boy what a race she ran!!