Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

agree 100% str..it hasn't been a race every 2 or 3 week game for I'd say at least 30 years..2 weeks maybe 40 or 50..mean much more if it reflected today's spacing of races and your schedule would work well..I think the series should be called something to reflect the changes ..maybe "the big 3" to reflect 3 races for 3yo..another thought if practical to do would be a compromise in timing..make the preakness 3 weeks after and keep the same spacing to the belmont
..so it means something to run again less than what's normal but not the unrealistic 2 week break..3 race series , 3 weeks apart for 3yo's..like all the 3's and maybe some marketability if they rename the series like suggested above..whatever they'd decide to call it

not only an extra week to the preakness but a week more time between the derby and belmont..think that's a good thing for a 1 1/2 mile race

[str]

you may have seen that deterministic is running in the peter pan on saturday (R6 #7 @ 5-1 ml).. i think this would be the time to play off what you saw in his last race and our overall feeling about the horse..might be a little value there also ..some rain on friday
but looks like it'll be a fast track on saturday

Looks like everybody was thinking the same way. The Peter Pan was going to be tougher and deeper than the Preakness.

With all the scratches, we will just have to wait until tomorrow to see what's up.

As for Deterministic, I think it is best to just draw a line through his last race and assume this is his 1st try around 2 turns.

He needs to relax, be cool around the 1st turn and run his race.

Depending on who is scratching, that is all that might be needed from him to win. More tomorrow when the smoke clears.

[JBEX]

Looks like everybody was thinking the same way. The Peter Pan was going to be tougher and deeper than the Preakness.

With all the scratches, we will just have to wait until tomorrow to see what's up.

As for Deterministic, I think it is best to just draw a line through his last race and assume this is his 1st try around 2 turns.

He needs to relax, be cool around the 1st turn and run his race.

Depending on who is scratching, that is all that might be needed from him to win. More tomorrow when the smoke clears.

going for 10x the purse and the prestige factor in the preakness .. this is a tough bunch and agree there might be a few who'll run in the preakness instead

[JBEX]

hey str

I think I brought up before the mth races as a possible path KB may take with a win in his last race..understand you have to know what's going on with the horse up close to make definitive decisions

everything else being neutral if they are considering the whitney on 8/3 I think the salvatore mile G3 at mth on 6/15 would be a perfect primer

8 weeks after his last race

7 weeks to the whitney

get a short route in him after going an extended route in his last start..an extra half furlong at mth would've been ideal but the flat mile close enough ..this is also taking into consideration that his off the layoff race was at 7f


gives him another race at a reasonable competition level before facing the wolves at saratoga (I'm assuming this is the target)

a place he's familiar with and possibly a little more tranquil is good for him mentally

[str]

hey str

I think I brought up before the mth races as a possible path KB may take with a win in his last race..understand you have to know what's going on with the horse up close to make definitive decisions

everything else being neutral if they are considering the whitney on 8/3 I think the salvatore mile G3 at mth on 6/15 would be a perfect primer

8 weeks after his last race

7 weeks to the whitney

get a short route in him after going an extended route in his last start..an extra half furlong at mth would've been ideal but the flat mile close enough ..this is also taking into consideration that his off the layoff race was at 7f


gives him another race at a reasonable competition level before facing the wolves at saratoga (I'm assuming this is the target)

a place he's familiar with and possibly a little more tranquil is good for him mentally

I have not seen any of the condition books but I do have to think that Todd will want to try on the Saratoga acid tests as long as KB is running well. So far, very good IMO.

Just have not looked at what else might be around for him prior to that.

I like your thinking but will never get used to running every 8 weeks. I still don't get it, but understand the economics of it and maybe it is because I never had to deal with the level of fragility that must exist in todays world on the backside.

Thanks for the KB update. Always appreciate it.

[JBEX]

I have not seen any of the condition books but I do have to think that Todd will want to try on the Saratoga acid tests as long as KB is running well. So far, very good IMO.

Just have not looked at what else might be around for him prior to that.

I like your thinking but will never get used to running every 8 weeks. I still don't get it, but understand the economics of it and maybe it is because I never had to deal with the level of fragility that must exist in todays world on the backside.

Thanks for the KB update. Always appreciate it.

yes i haven't looked at condition books to see what other spots there might be available..just going with class,distance,timing and the locality of mth
seem to be a pretty good fit..have to take a peek if there's something that works at baq


no problem on the updates str



.

[JBEX]

want to see DM and KB as logical contenders in the breeders cup classic..little early for that but certainly a possibility if they continue to move forward..hopefully at least one makes it there anyway

[str]

Deterministic:


Here we go again with needing to break, RELAX, settle, and go when asked. I have to think this is what he has done most days in the morning since his last race.

Let him jog the wrong way to the 1/8th pole, stand, and start to gallop RELAXED, thru the lane and around the 1st turn, pick it up ever so slightly just about to the far turn, and finish wanting more. Nothing to it, Right?

Well, that is what the trainer strives for and hopefully it happens today.

We really do not know how good The Wine Steward is but none of that matters if Deterministic does what he has been shown twice so far. I think both horses have the ability to ascend the 3 yr, old ranks quickly if they keep improving.

Fun race to watch but I'm kind of on edge waiting to see Deterministic do what he is so capable of doing.

[JBEX]

Deterministic:


Here we go again with needing to break, RELAX, settle, and go when asked. I have to think this is what he has done most days in the morning since his last race.

Let him jog the wrong way to the 1/8th pole, stand, and start to gallop RELAXED, thru the lane and around the 1st turn, pick it up ever so slightly just about to the far turn, and finish wanting more. Nothing to it, Right?

Well, that is what the trainer strives for and hopefully it happens today.

We really do not know how good The Wine Steward is but none of that matters if Deterministic does what he has been shown twice so far. I think both horses have the ability to ascend the 3 yr, old ranks quickly if they keep improving.

Fun race to watch but I'm kind of on edge waiting to see Deterministic do what he is so capable of doing.

but I would guess just to do the things he did in his first 2 starts shows some feel for things or intelligence ..neither easy tasks for a young horse .. I think barring any serious trouble we're gonna see a nice effort today ..look forward to the race

[JBEX]

if I didn't have a rooting interest I'd be all over the longest odds in the field #4 lonesome boy (20-1) ..to me he's 8-1 in this field with avg or better connections

[str]

Well,... poor Deterministic. And poor C. Clement and all the connections.

The horse is totally confused. This is all 100% mental.

Today he breaks in at the break and causes problems but he instantly undoes everything they tried to instill and wants to runoff again. No, it was not as bad as last time, but it was not good at all.

Unprofessional to say the least. He is so much better than that.

Not sure because I don't know the horse but it seems to me he has pretty much thrown his 3 year old year away.

I think the decision will be to:

1. give him 90 days or more away from the track and start over.

2. Cut him back to one turn only and see if he can be straightened out. Personally, I lean the 1st option as I don't know if one turn will help at this point. He seems terribly confused. It's hard to watch and brutal to have to deal with.
C. Clement has got to be real upset with what has happened. Nobody's fault. It just happened.

Damn, what a tough business.

[JBEX]

Well,... poor Deterministic. And poor C. Clement and all the connections.

The horse is totally confused. This is all 100% mental.

Today he breaks in at the break and causes problems but he instantly undoes everything they tried to instill and wants to runoff again. No, it was not as bad as last time, but it was not good at all.

Unprofessional to say the least. He is so much better than that.

Not sure because I don't know the horse but it seems to me he has pretty much thrown his 3 year old year away.

I think the decision will be to:

1. give him 90 days or more away from the track and start over.

2. Cut him back to one turn only and see if he can be straightened out. Personally, I lean the 1st option as I don't know if one turn will help at this point. He seems terribly confused. It's hard to watch and brutal to have to deal with.
C. Clement has got to be real upset with what has happened. Nobody's fault. It just happened.

Damn, what a tough business.

think at minimum wait till after saratoga which would put the layoff at about 4-5 months..sure they'll be an alw n2xot @ 7f or a mile in the book @ baq meet..

I definitely feel it makes sense to go 1 turn when he tries again..make things easy as possible relative to class and familiarity with assignment

only problem I forsee
is if he does win will there be another spot in ny to run..can't see running him once and then laying him off for the winter..if there's not a reasonable path I think maybe it'll be a lengthy layoff like KB's.. would you agree str that this is a more serious mental issue than KB had ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: on Deterministic this is a far fetched question but going to ask it. What are the chances that the sloppy track that he excelled on has confused him as well? He ran a 99 speed figure in the slop off a 7 month respite. Next 2 races nothing. He improved 9 points from his first asking in the slop. He ran great in the slop in the Gotham and I just wonder? THX.

[str]

think at minimum wait till after saratoga which would put the layoff at about 4-5 months..sure they'll be an alw n2xot @ 7f or a mile in the book @ baq meet..

I definitely feel it makes sense to go 1 turn when he tries again..make things easy as possible relative to class and familiarity with assignment

only problem I forsee
is if he does win will there be another spot in ny to run..can't see running him once and then laying him off for the winter..if there's not a reasonable path I think maybe it'll be a lengthy layoff like KB's.. would you agree str that this is a more serious mental issue than KB had ?

It’s pretty much the same thing but it looks worse because he closes. Or is supposed to. Same basic idea though.
The Derby cooked KB. You can see a clear difference now as compared to then and his Monmouth race afterwards.And you could see prior to the Derby that he was mentally fine in Louisiana .

This problem is the same but totally different if that makes sense. Same because if they don’t relax and breath it’s not going to end well most times. Different because it seems the gate is doing it or the two turn thing.
Either way, I am assuming without knowing the horse that he needs a mental break.

His trainer will get it right. He is excellent and should reach the HOF in the next year or two. Sure hope so.

[JBEX]

It’s pretty much the same thing but it looks worse because he closes. Or is supposed to. Same basic idea though.
The Derby cooked KB. You can see a clear difference now as compared to then and his Monmouth race afterwards.And you could see prior to the Derby that he was mentally fine in Louisiana .

This problem is the same but totally different if that makes sense. Same because if they don’t relax and breath it’s not going to end well most times. Different because it seems the gate is doing it or the two turn thing.
Either way, I am assuming without knowing the horse that he needs a mental break.

His trainer will get it right. He is excellent and should reach the HOF in the next year or two. Sure hope so.

think there's a lot of evidence that 1 turn might be his thing..you can add the pedigree to that as he's out of a speightstown mare which is way more geared to speed .. sire also more speed oriented..

they actually have a 6.5f allowance n2xot race (just saying lol) for the short 4 day meet surrounding the belmont stakes @ saratoga
..it's 4 weeks from yesterday.. probably too soon and I agree there's no reason to rush him back

I agree that clement will figure him out and think he'll wind up being a sprinter/miler type..the talent is there

[str]

Hey STR: on Deterministic this is a far fetched question but going to ask it. What are the chances that the sloppy track that he excelled on has confused him as well? He ran a 99 speed figure in the slop off a 7 month respite. Next 2 races nothing. He improved 9 points from his first asking in the slop. He ran great in the slop in the Gotham and I just wonder? THX.

Because he trains and works most days on dry dirt the chances would be low but trying to figure out what is in a horse’s head is never easy. it’s usually a process of elimination thing. Can’t say you are wrong though as it can be just about anything. What we do know is that it IS something.

They will almost assuredly run him around one turn next out and will just hope they see the really nice horse he can be.
His rider I have to think has an opinion that has some possible unknowns for us in it. We will just wait it out and see.
Also interesting will be if the rider stays on or looks elsewhere. That will be interesting.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Because he trains and works most days on dry dirt the chances would be low but trying to figure out what is in a horse’s head is never easy. it’s usually a process of elimination thing. Can’t say you are wrong though as it can be just about anything. What we do know is that it IS something.
They will almost assuredly run him around one turn next out and will just hope they see the really nice horse he can be.
His rider I have to think has an opinion that has some possible unknowns for us in it. We will just wait it out and see.
Also interesting will be if the rider stays on or looks elsewhere. That will be interesting.

OK THX STR. Was just thinking maybe The horse likes running in the mud more. Will be interesting to see how he runs next race or 2.

[str]

OK THX STR. Was just thinking maybe The horse likes running in the mud more. Will be interesting to see how he runs next race or 2.

He very well could EZ. Probably does. But he has to relax on all surfaces to have a chance. Funny thing is, in the mud, horses sometimes get too worked up because it is so much louder for a group to run in and the mud kick back can actually hurt when it hits you even more than the dirt. He is doing just the opposite. How frustrating is that!

[str]

Hey JBEX,

Kingsbarns is at Pimlico Friday.

[JBEX]

Hey JBEX,

Kingsbarns is at Pimlico Friday.

glad to hear str and thanks for letting me know

guess he must be doing ok to come back in 4 weeks..gets a distance he likes vs g3 company so seems like a very sensible spot..good to see him run on your home circuit and nice little treat heading into preakness day

[Easy-Rider 66]

Boy oh boy has the Preakness lost it's way.

For the triple crown to stay the triple crown, these races will need to be spaced more accurately. Times change, people change, economics of horse values change.

In baseball, there were only day games, then came the lights and just like that, baseball was a night game except for the Cubs . Then, the Cubs got lights and now the day games are usually for opening day, travel purposes, logistics and holidays.

Football expanded and today they play games several days a week, and in different countries. Used to be many fewer games. Next year, probably 18 and THEN the playoffs.

Let's face reality. Owners and trainers attitudes about running every two or three weeks has changed. Maryland has to get rid of the current ownership, which is in the making, get with NY racing, and devise a strategy to rewrite the dates of the triple crown races.

I know this sounds very difficult, but umm , I have thought about it for 10 minutes tops and have come up with

First Saturday in May
First Saturday in June
And July 4th weekend

Now that wasn't so hard was it. This still leaves plenty of time for the Saratoga historic racing as well as the Breeders Cup which could slide one more week it seems.

Is this so hard ??? It still has the effort of stamina and soundness within the dates as well as more time in between races.

If Md. racing keeps it up, the Preakness will risk losing it's G-1 ranking over time. And don't think NY racing wouldn't love to eliminate the Preakness and add the Travers to the select 3 triple crown races. Have you seen the date change of the Belmont that NY racing has proposed? HELLO???

So Maryland, I think you are better than this and racing needs to catch up to the rest of the world. If not, Md. racing might just be on the clock in a not so good way. Here is hoping for the saving of a racing product I loved so much that I spent damn near everyday there for 29 years. Md. Racing. C'mon Man !

Yet even if purse increases for stakes cometogether, the Maryland program will be challengedby scheduling because it would be hard to convinceNYRA to push back the Belmont Stakes RacingFestival into July because of how it has designed itsstakes program. O'Rourke said the Belmont festivalis "a steppingstone into our Saratoga stakes schedule,and since we've built that product, the timing of thestakes is important in how it flows into Saratoga andall these other stakes."Foreman, who also is chairman and CEO ofthe Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, didn'twant to take a position on whether Marylandstakes purses need to reach for more parity withthe other two Triple Crown race programs, but heacknowledged the tension in the decision-makingahead about it

[Easy-Rider 66]

Any thoughts STR on the bold face you wrote and the take from Bloodhorse below that? THX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Since Frank Stronach's daughter Belinda tookleadership of the company in 2018, earnings fromPreakness day, which used to help support the entireyear, have collapsed. Focusing heavily on celebrityappearances and pop concerts unrelated to racing, 1/ST lost $2.9 million on the Preakness in 2022 and $1.9million last year."Their whole thing was to turn the Preakness into—Iguess you would call it—a party like you would see inSouth Beach, Florida," Foreman said. "They alienatedthe Maryland customer and a lot of people nationally.They just changed the whole look of the Preakness andthe whole operation of the Preakness. It used to be thepeople's party. It used to be a Maryland racing party,and they took that all away.

More from Bloodhorse.

[str]

Yet even if purse increases for stakes cometogether, the Maryland program will be challengedby scheduling because it would be hard to convinceNYRA to push back the Belmont Stakes RacingFestival into July because of how it has designed itsstakes program. O'Rourke said the Belmont festivalis "a steppingstone into our Saratoga stakes schedule,and since we've built that product, the timing of thestakes is important in how it flows into Saratoga andall these other stakes."Foreman, who also is chairman and CEO ofthe Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, didn'twant to take a position on whether Marylandstakes purses need to reach for more parity withthe other two Triple Crown race programs, but heacknowledged the tension in the decision-makingahead about it

Any thoughts STR on the bold face you wrote and the take from Bloodhorse below that? THX.

Since Frank Stronach's daughter Belinda tookleadership of the company in 2018, earnings fromPreakness day, which used to help support the entireyear, have collapsed. Focusing heavily on celebrityappearances and pop concerts unrelated to racing, 1/ST lost $2.9 million on the Preakness in 2022 and $1.9million last year."Their whole thing was to turn the Preakness into—Iguess you would call it—a party like you would see inSouth Beach, Florida," Foreman said. "They alienatedthe Maryland customer and a lot of people nationally.They just changed the whole look of the Preakness andthe whole operation of the Preakness. It used to be thepeople's party. It used to be a Maryland racing party,and they took that all away.

More from Bloodhorse.

Well it seems the lovable loser roll is once again being played by Md. racing. But first things first.

Alan Forman, who I have known and has been a big part of the inner workings of Md. racing for about 50 years now, being the racing commission lawyer in the 70's and then working for horsemen after that, is one of the best things that racing in Md. has ever had. He has been around for all of it. What a great person he is IMO.

That said, ownership has been a train wreck when it comes to Md. racing and tradition, also IMO. And because I no longer keep up with the daily nonsense that seems to occur, it seems my 10 minutes of coming up with a Triple Crown plan was too late. God forbid ownership spend 10 minutes on it in the past 10 years. I find this sad as well as pathetic.

I had the pleasure of meeting and speaking at length to the current head of the Md. Racing Commission at the end of April at the racetrack reunion a couple of weeks ago at Laurel. What a great find for Md. racing he seems to be. I have to think that with his passion for Md. racing and the game, as well as Alan Foreman and others I'm sure, they will do their very best to make sure that Md. racing AND the Preakness survive. But exactly what that is or how they will go about it is at this time unknown.

There is no good that can come out of me bashing current ownership. A waste of time. Any energy spent on that would be much more productive spent towards trying to make Md. racing and the Preakness thrive and not be an after thought or an automatic scratch off of many trainers options due to it's outdated proximity between the Derby and the Belmont.

I could type until my fingers fall off about this nonsense but to what end?

Instead, I will look towards what hopes to be strong, sound leadership moving forward as the current owners leave.


I do pause to think every now and then about where my life would be had I stayed in racing. For my wife, my kids and my grandkids, it would have meant less time with them these last 23 years. The sad reality is, that if that sacrifice had been made for my career and Md. racing, what would myself and my family gotten out of it? I will never know but even if it was many more winners, more training titles, or whatever, there is no way with what ownership has done in Md. would it have ever even come close to all I have had since leaving.

It must be terrible for horsemen, and all involved with Md. racing to have had to endure one disappointment after another. One promise broken after another and ownerships blatant mistakes that have cost Md. racing millions and millions of dollars and many a disappointment.

It hurts me to think about it and at the same time makes me so happy I left the only other love of my life all those years ago.

So many good people who put their livelihood, faith and trust into an ownership that seemingly cared only about themselves. Maybe they call it collateral damage? I call it unforgivable.

If I hear more, I will let you know EZ.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for your thorough assessment STR. Let us as racing fans hope that MD can right the ship. There are obvious obstacles but with right management maybe it can be done. Thx again.

[ARCHIVADO98]

Double crown doesn't sound nearly as cool as Triple Crown.

IF Preakness ever lost its ground, who could substitute?

[str]

Double crown doesn't sound nearly as cool as Triple Crown.

IF Preakness ever lost its ground, who could substitute?

Many tracks would love to have a chance to sponsor a third jewel.

Maryland owns the Preakness. But who cares if trainers want no part of it.

In the late 70’s the Laurel Futurity was the landing spot every fall for the best 2 year olds. It is now an afterthought because of the Breeders Cup series.

it would be terrible if the Preakness lost its luster.

I don’t know what the future holds but if the Preakness can survive and come back to the prominence it once had , which was a race where if you won the Derby you absolutely ran in the Preakness, a lot of credit will be deserved to be given but not a drop of that would be to current management.

And I agree that a double crown would be a joke. Can’t see that as an option.

[JBEX]

little revision on what I said regarding the triple crown races..suggested adding an extra week between the derby and the preakness with the belmont following 3 weeks later as always..only change I would make to that sequence is adding another week between the preakness and belmont

derby
preakness (3 weeks)
belmont (4 weeks)

logic..

instead of a month (vs 2 weeks) compromise at 3 ..make it a little bit of a throwback (durability) and adds something special to the challenge vs exact spacing between all three .. after having derby and preakness 3 weeks apart 4 weeks to the belmont would be good for recovery from those races along with taking into account the distance of the race .. i'm guessing more horses would actually stay through the series with this spacing

maybe some financial incentives if you run in the preakness after the derby ..10% bonus above the normal share for top 4 finishers


ie:

$2M purse

4th 5% (or 6%)
100k + 10k bonus

[JBEX]

forgot to mention..don't call it the triple crown anymore..to me it's not with the different spacing .. call them something like "the spring classics"

[JBEX]

for those interested


R12
pimlico special
grade 3 race
1 3/16 miles

@ 5:10

#2 kingsbarns (7-5)


not a play for me .. just a longtime follow,as many know, for str and i







.

[JBEX]

hey str

R13 black eyed susan

#4 call another play (8-1)

larry johnson (who we've discussed) bred and owned.. looks like blinkers on have made a big difference..great name for a horse by the sire audible ..dam sire bernardini w/o looking i believe won the preakness ..will confirm this



he did

[JBEX]

hey str

R13 black eyed susan

#4 call another play (8-1)

larry johnson (who we've discussed) bred and owned.. looks like blinkers on have made a big difference..great name for a horse by the sire audible ..dam sire bernardini w/o looking i believe won the preakness ..will confirm this



he did

not necessarily a play for me..should just make it part of the write-up vs doing it like I did..going to look over the race some more

[JBEX]

not necessarily a play for me..should just make it part of the write-up vs doing it like I did..going to look over the race some more

going #6 whocouldaskformo (6-1)

like that she exits the gazelle at aqueduct which was a very fast race..fact she finished a distant 4th might be a good indicator of the quality of that race as imo the performances before were nothing special ..another by uncle mo like kingsbarns





.

[str]

little revision on what I said regarding the triple crown races..suggested adding an extra week between the derby and the preakness with the belmont following 3 weeks later as always..only change I would make to that sequence is adding another week between the preakness and belmont

derby
preakness (3 weeks)
belmont (4 weeks)

logic..

instead of a month (vs 2 weeks) compromise at 3 ..make it a little bit of a throwback (durability) and adds something special to the challenge vs exact spacing between all three .. after having derby and preakness 3 weeks apart 4 weeks to the belmont would be good for recovery from those races along with taking into account the distance of the race .. i'm guessing more horses would actually stay through the series with this spacing

maybe some financial incentives if you run in the preakness after the derby ..10% bonus above the normal share for top 4 finishers


ie:

$2M purse

4th 5% (or 6%)
100k + 10k bonus

Whatever the final move is, they better get with all the major players as in the trainers, owners, and such so that when whatever is implemented, it will work.
One thing the tracks have struggled to get right in the past has been working "in conjunction with" other tracks as well as participants.

[str]

for those interested


R12
pimlico special
grade 3 race
1 3/16 miles

@ 5:10

#2 kingsbarns (7-5)


not a play for me .. just a longtime follow,as many know, for str and i







.

As long as we continue to see the "relaxed" version of Kingsbarns, as he runs the race, he should be just fine. Sure hope so.