Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

hey str


realize it doesn't make sense for deterministic to run in the derby but since he is eligible wanted to ask you this ..strictly from a conditioning standpoint
could they have him ready off what he did in his last race ?

[str]

hey str


realize it doesn't make sense for deterministic to run in the derby but since he is eligible wanted to ask you this ..strictly from a conditioning standpoint
could they have him ready off what he did in his last race ?

I was really happy to see the article about unlikely to run in the Derby. That means he came out of the race in fine shape.

So strictly from a conditioning standpoint he physically got plenty out of that race? He was tired. No doubt built at least a little more lung capacity and stamina. So from purely that angle, not as ready as if he won or finished right there but he indeed did get something physically out of that race.

But as you know, the mental took a big hit. So can he rebound 180 degrees in the Derby. Well, it's possible from the physical. Very difficult but not impossible from the mental.
So if he DID run in the Derby would I bet him? Sentimentally probably yes. Not much but a rooting interest for sure. He would need plenty of things to happen to other horses that helped him but that kind of stuff happens every year in the Derby. I would not let him pay 70.00 or more without a couple of those going to me.

[JBEX]

I was really happy to see the article about unlikely to run in the Derby. That means he came out of the race in fine shape.

So strictly from a conditioning standpoint he physically got plenty out of that race? He was tired. No doubt built at least a little more lung capacity and stamina. So from purely that angle, not as ready as if he won or finished right there but he indeed did get something physically out of that race.

But as you know, the mental took a big hit. So can he rebound 180 degrees in the Derby. Well, it's possible from the physical. Very difficult but not impossible from the mental.
So if he DID run in the Derby would I bet him? Sentimentally probably yes. Not much but a rooting interest for sure. He would need plenty of things to happen to other horses that helped him but that kind of stuff happens every year in the Derby. I would not let him pay 70.00 or more without a couple of those going to me.

getting something out of it but not as much as if he had run competively to the end makes sense..nice to know that he came out of the race in good shape..I'd like to see him take his next shot at 7f in saratoga (distance and place he won his debut) spotted in the proper alw condition but understand that will depend on him


thanks str

[JBEX]

think kingsbarns doesn't have the best setup on saturday with that other speed horse posted just outside of him..I have a hunch ,especially with the longer than usual route distance,
that the connections would be happy with him being competitive to the final half furlong..this is factoring that his race off the long layoff was at only 7f..any thoughts about the race ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: when you get a chance take a look at the PP's for Horseshoe Indy R8. (You can access thru Goldencents) The #3 Horse Bekhamboy was 20/1 ML and scored at 75/1. Dropping from MDN 70K to MCL 12.5. also added Lasix. Poor jock and trainer metrics I will add. Anyway could you make a case to throw a few bucks on him? THX. (#2 and #14 was SCR) MY main question is the huge drop + any others factors and the odds enough to maybe throw a buck or 2 down. He did seem to flash some decent speed and fade in his previous 3 MDN 70K races.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I played the 4/5 fav in advance(would have looked elsewhere if I knew 4/5). the #5 in that race. 6/1 ML. was on the lead with the #6 and faded bad.

[str]

Hey STR: when you get a chance take a look at the PP's for Horseshoe Indy R8. (You can access thru Goldencents) The #3 Horse Bekhamboy was 20/1 ML and scored at 75/1. Dropping from MDN 70K to MCL 12.5. also added Lasix. Poor jock and trainer metrics I will add. Anyway could you make a case to throw a few bucks on him? THX. (#2 and #14 was SCR) MY main question is the huge drop + any others factors and the odds enough to maybe throw a buck or 2 down. He did seem to flash some decent speed and fade in his previous 3 MDN 70K races.

I played the 4/5 fav in advance(would have looked elsewhere if I knew 4/5). the #5 in that race. 6/1 ML. was on the lead with the #6 and faded bad.

I would have BET BIG on him !














I'm just messing with you EZ.

I think if you arrive at this horse to bet a couple of bucks on, you have conceded that the race is just a terrible race with a huge lack of talent. Now and then , and for instance when my buddies and I used to go up to Charlestown a couple times a year I could arrive at that decision. If so, you cut back to a very small wager in all probability and swing for a big drop down almost by default. If we are betting seriously, I could not in all likelihood play that horse. But my group is not going to CT to bet seriously 99 times out of 100. We are going to BS, and bet some races for fun. So maybe, just maybe you can't find ANY value at all in the race and bet small on a horse like that. I think that is how I could possibly land on a horse like him. Trainer and jockey stats are awful right? He has beaten 2 horses out of 30 in 3 traces BUT it was against a totally different quality of horse.

Agree 4/5 was brutal on that horse you played but you did not know. And he had a shot, just no value at 4/5 as you know.

Some of the biggest win payoffs I ever saw in my time were bottom maiden claimers. Saw a horse pay 212.00 at C.T. once. Tree Pilot. Still remember his name. Was probably 17 and after that, I remember talking to a very solid handicapper about it on the ride home and he was right when he said, "bottom maidens... anything can happen". He was as good as I ever saw but just horrible with money management. He was also the guy that I told the story about that ran the Belmont pool and pocketed Cannanaro and Jim French and I pulled Pass Catcher. Lol. 5 bucks was money back then. Bought a case of Budwiser or a tank of gas.. I was flush when I got like 40 bucks back or something like that. Also the guy that bet and won the first 8 races at Shennandoah downs one night , bet it all on a horse in the last and came home broke. Unreal EZ.

So don't feel bad about that race but do keep it in the back of your head that if you cannot possibly see anyone winning but there is a BIG drop down or 1st Lasix or Blks. ON type a 50-1, you can always concede to that race and bet 2 bucks on an extreme longshot if you choose to. It's kind of like betting against the obvious ones if that makes sense.
My guess is if you do it 50 times in your life, you will hit at least one and maybe a couple of them. Doing that sure does the handicapping ego a lot of good.

Take care my friend.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR thx for your take. Makes sense.

[Madison]

I played the 4/5 fav in advance(would have looked elsewhere if I knew 4/5). the #5 in that race. 6/1 ML. was on the lead with the #6 and faded bad.

Here in lays many of the parimutual challenges especially the smaller the pool. Probably led to my retirement from Greyhound racing. The smaller the pool the more volatility. Bad enough to want to back an 8/5 who ends up 3/5 or 4-1 who ends up 1-1. Tough enough without knowing what the last flash is going to deal you!!!

[Madison]

think kingsbarns doesn't have the best setup on saturday with that other speed horse posted just outside of him..I have a hunch ,especially with the longer than usual route distance,
that the connections would be happy with him being competitive to the final half furlong..this is factoring that his race off the long layoff was at only 7f..any thoughts about the race ?

Did he end up where I posted, and you questioned, several weeks ago? Just asking??

[Madison]

He was as good as I ever saw but just horrible with money management.

I was very fortunate in the 70's to have a guy that stopped handicapping (He allowed me to do that) and just started betting my picks and along the way taught me the alternate required skill of $ mgmt.

Few words but so much value/truth.

[JBEX]

Did he end up where I posted, and you questioned, several weeks ago? Just asking??

yes madison..running in that race this Saturday..thanks

[Madison]

yes madison..running in that race this Saturday..thanks

Will be looking forward to your handicap/thoughts. BOL!!

[JBEX]

Will be looking forward to your handicap/thoughts. BOL!!

I believe str would concur that we are more fans of the horse then monetarily interested..been following him since he broke his maiden at gulfstream in his first start..my impression looking at the race objectively is this is not a favorable setup for him (race shape) and he's 2-1 ml..will just be rooting for him..plenty of other races to cap

[str]

I believe str would concur that we are more fans of the horse then monetarily interested..been following him since he broke his maiden at gulfstream in his first start..my impression looking at the race objectively is this is not a favorable setup for him (race shape) and he's 2-1 ml..will just be rooting for him..plenty of other races to cap

I do concur JBEX. For me, I am getting the feeling that this horse is at a crossroads rather quickly as to how he will be looked upon after Saturday. What I mean is... let's back up a couple of months. If I'm trying to map out a series of races for this horse and he has my respect that he can really be something, is the perfect setup for him to run 7/8ths and then 1 3/16's? I don't think so.

So did Todd lose faith in him because he had to work maybe more than was anticipated in his first start back? Or is Todd SO confident in his abilities that he feels the horse wants the added distance and is really ready to blast off with his 4 year old year?
I don't know that answer but the 1st one I'm afraid seems to make more sense than the 2nd one unless Todd is really thinking this guy is going to crush it this year.
We will find out on Saturday. I mean, Todd definitely has an opinion about KB. I would love to know what it is but just don't know him at all to ever be able to find out.

I am still very pro relax early with this horse and while JBEX sees the speed on his outside, it doesn't bother me at this point maybe as much as it bothers JBEX. Mainly because I am totally trusting this horse AND this process until he shows me I should not. Also, I would hope that the plan would be to let the outside horse clear and KB gain an outside stalking position if all goes as should out of the gate. If the 6 does not show speed, ok, KB can take the lead BUT he needs to walk the dog ( go slow early) and relax like a very good horse should, and respond with authority when asked.
But my knees are a bit wobbly with the two distances chosen as the first two races back. Of course, I can only see what I can see, which for that in depth opinion of a horse, is not very much at all. And without scanning the various books and mapping out a plan, I'm clueless.

Maybe Todd has not even mapped a plan out yet and won't until the horse shows more in this race coming up. If he wins, there will definitely be a solid plan moving forward. If he gets beat, I don't know. Seems he becomes a second stringer in Todd's barn with the three year old's taking the center stage and new babies arriving about now.
I think this race will say a ton towards where things go from here. And I'm more than a bit uncomfortable with the distance scenario for a horse off 8 months. Maybe this is literally all there was to choose from. I kind of hope so . But Saturday will be a big day for this horse to step up or maybe step back.
For me, there is so much to watch and learn from this race, I don't even consider the wagering side of it but if I did, my outlook would be that I can get 2-1 on a lot of horses in perfect setups instead of one that is being asked to do what I deem as a non traditional or smooth thing. No bet for me. Just watch learn and file away for another day.

Hope that makes sense Madison.

[Madison]

BUT he needs to walk the dog ( go slow early) and relax like a very good horse should, and respond with authority when asked.

As an admitted novice, and enjoying the younger breeds, I find this comment and my observations so interesting. I guess "ability to rate" is of keen interest to me. I see so many of the younger ones (1-4 starts) just chomping at the bit and the jockey working so hard to "rate" them quite interesting.

BOL gentlemen!!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: a question on coupled horses. NYRA one of My favorite circuits is big on them. I don't favor them much. I don't like having to account for 2 horses as one betting interest. What is your take on them and why do only some tracks offer it? THX.

[Easy-Rider 66]

a couple of more random thoughts STR. sign up to RTN yet? If so TV or computer? also that ML maker for NYRA David Aragona is pretty sharp. He gives out his picks and does writeups for 3 or 4 races each card usually. He looks for value and gives a nice run down on how a horse ran in his previous race. I tail him quite a bit for NYRA or at least use his writeup to help make a decision.

[str]

Hey STR: a question on coupled horses. NYRA one of My favorite circuits is big on them. I don't favor them much. I don't like having to account for 2 horses as one betting interest. What is your take on them and why do only some tracks offer it? THX.

Back in the day,( 70's and earlier), if a trainer OR an owner with more than one trainer had more than one horse in a race, they were coupled as 1, 1A or even 1X if it was a stake and they had more than two, Or 2 and 2B, 3 and 3C etc. Two horses max for all other races. This was for the protection of the integrity of the game for the bettors so the thought of manipulating results would not surface. ( Of course, because it is gambling, there were always some jackass somewhere that tried to block with one horse to let the other half of the entry win and crap like that so more rules had to be made).
This coupling stuff changed when races became harder to fill which was because tracks were all running more days and went from 9 races per day to maybe 10, 11, or 12 on special events or weekends. This was the start of the "horse shortage". It really was NOT a horse shortage, it was too much racing at the same time. If there was a league with a commissioner type thing, none of this would happen but it was an " inmates running the acylium" kind of thing.

So, they started running races uncoupled which gave the race more betting interests. In time, some jurisdictions brought back the coupled entry while others did not. I have not kept up so I don't know where each track stands these days but that is how it was created.

I don't really have a take on it as entry's were always combined when I was a handicapper, worker and trainer for most of my time. I never saw or recognized anything nefarious when the entries became uncoupled but I felt it was a little weird. I was just not used to it I guess.
Now some places couple them again which I am fine with but only because that is what I was used to. You probably find it a bit weird because you were used to it uncoupled and now some places are.
I think you have to put trust in it and handicap the race on each individual horse, the race setup, speed , position close, inside , outside, and all around trip setup. Don't pay much attention to who is riding the supposed "other half" of the entry. Can't tell you how many times the " wrong' half of my entries won. Wrong according to the betting public at least.
Gamblers are suspicious and they might claim something improper sometimes with an entry but if you focus on the race SHAPE, speed, stalk, close as well as current track condition and possible bias or not, value and those types of things etc., you should be fine. And while your price might be somewhat affected by the other half of the entry, every now and then the "wrong" half wins and you look like the cat that just swallowed the canary with that smirk on your face.
In the end, it all works out EZ.

Hope that helps.

I'll get to the other question later today or in the morning.

[Easy-Rider 66]

THX for the history of it STR. Did not know that. NYRA and a couple of other tracks still run entries coupled. But most do not. On NYRA tracks if half the entry is a SCR at gate time then the other half runs for purse $$ only and the wagers are refunded.

[JBEX]

I do concur JBEX. For me, I am getting the feeling that this horse is at a crossroads rather quickly as to how he will be looked upon after Saturday. What I mean is... let's back up a couple of months. If I'm trying to map out a series of races for this horse and he has my respect that he can really be something, is the perfect setup for him to run 7/8ths and then 1 3/16's? I don't think so.

So did Todd lose faith in him because he had to work maybe more than was anticipated in his first start back? Or is Todd SO confident in his abilities that he feels the horse wants the added distance and is really ready to blast off with his 4 year old year?
I don't know that answer but the 1st one I'm afraid seems to make more sense than the 2nd one unless Todd is really thinking this guy is going to crush it this year.
We will find out on Saturday. I mean, Todd definitely has an opinion about KB. I would love to know what it is but just don't know him at all to ever be able to find out.

I am still very pro relax early with this horse and while JBEX sees the speed on his outside, it doesn't bother me at this point maybe as much as it bothers JBEX. Mainly because I am totally trusting this horse AND this process until he shows me I should not. Also, I would hope that the plan would be to let the outside horse clear and KB gain an outside stalking position if all goes as should out of the gate. If the 6 does not show speed, ok, KB can take the lead BUT he needs to walk the dog ( go slow early) and relax like a very good horse should, and respond with authority when asked.
But my knees are a bit wobbly with the two distances chosen as the first two races back. Of course, I can only see what I can see, which for that in depth opinion of a horse, is not very much at all. And without scanning the various books and mapping out a plan, I'm clueless.

Maybe Todd has not even mapped a plan out yet and won't until the horse shows more in this race coming up. If he wins, there will definitely be a solid plan moving forward. If he gets beat, I don't know. Seems he becomes a second stringer in Todd's barn with the three year old's taking the center stage and new babies arriving about now.
I think this race will say a ton towards where things go from here. And I'm more than a bit uncomfortable with the distance scenario for a horse off 8 months. Maybe this is literally all there was to choose from. I kind of hope so . But Saturday will be a big day for this horse to step up or maybe step back.
For me, there is so much to watch and learn from this race, I don't even consider the wagering side of it but if I did, my outlook would be that I can get 2-1 on a lot of horses in perfect setups instead of one that is being asked to do what I deem as a non traditional or smooth thing. No bet for me. Just watch learn and file away for another day.

Hope that makes sense Madison.

I thought this spot was top 2 or 3 logical factoring class and timing..I agree str that ideally you'd want him going a half to 1 furlong shorter (latter probably more common) and this is an infrequent route distance .. with this long of a stretchout 2nd off the layoff ,as mentioned before, think it's possible that they won't view losing by 2-4 as such a bad thing .. it might set him up nicely for a more normal shorter route distance next out and that would be good progress at this point


with a good effort here,which is far from a certanty, I'll take a shot and say monmouth will be his next destination .. there are two consecutive races there that fit the bill very well..if he runs
really big they might set the bar a little higher than that


thing that bothers me about the race setup is it looks like he might be a lone stalker and have always felt that to be a disadvantage..horse out front (in this case #5) likely to set reasonable to slow fractions and KB will be forced to do the dirty work of attacking earlier than he'd want otherwise leader might be gone..would like to see more if he could sit behind a more normal scenario with a presser type alongside the leader..guess it's still a positive if he settles in and doesn't try to engage the pace setter

[str]

a couple of more random thoughts STR. sign up to RTN yet? If so TV or computer? also that ML maker for NYRA David Aragona is pretty sharp. He gives out his picks and does writeups for 3 or 4 races each card usually. He looks for value and gives a nice run down on how a horse ran in his previous race. I tail him quite a bit for NYRA or at least use his writeup to help make a decision.

Not yet with RTN EZ. My company is keeping me very busy these days. I would have no time to watch right now. Just weekends probably and they could be tough as well with all that goes on around here.

David Aragona is without a doubt, in my mind, one of the best around if not THE best. I don't really care as much about the picks as I do HOW HE ARRIVES at those picks. Don't get me wrong, his picks are fine. How he arrives at them from a setup as well as value and previous race analysis is as good as it gets. Try and follow his logic and explanations and in time you will be able to incorporate some of those thoughts into your own handicapping. There is a lot to learn from that guy. I promise it will serve you well.

Craig Malinowski is another top level handicapper. He does the Timeform stuff and although I don't read or use it necessarily, if I was handicapping a lot, I can't think that I would NOT use it. He is top shelf as well. He sees pace and race set up well also.
Andy Sterling needs to be on that list. He sees races, setups, biases, etc. with the best of them. Youi can't go wrong listening and learning from any of those guys IMO.

I always found the above views of setup, etc. they all mention they all three use as the keys to reaching the next level of handicapper.

[str]

THX for the history of it STR. Did not know that. NYRA and a couple of other tracks still run entries coupled. But most do not. On NYRA tracks if half the entry is a SCR at gate time then the other half runs for purse $$ only and the wagers are refunded.

That is very fair for the player. Never happened back in the day. More than once an otherwise 10-1 shot "other half" of an entry would be
8-5 or something like that. That was not cool at all.

[str]

I thought this spot was top 2 or 3 logical factoring class and timing..I agree str that ideally you'd want him going a half to 1 furlong shorter (latter probably more common) and this is an infrequent route distance .. with this long of a stretchout 2nd off the layoff ,as mentioned before, think it's possible that they won't view losing by 2-4 as such a bad thing .. it might set him up nicely for a more normal shorter route distance next out and that would be good progress at this point


with a good effort here,which is far from a certanty, I'll take a shot and say monmouth will be his next destination .. there are two consecutive races there that fit the bill very well..if he runs
really big they might set the bar a little higher than that


thing that bothers me about the race setup is it looks like he might be a lone stalker and have always felt that to be a disadvantage..horse out front (in this case #5) likely to set reasonable to slow fractions and KB will be forced to do the dirty work of attacking earlier than he'd want otherwise leader might be gone..would like to see more if he could sit behind a more normal scenario with a presser type alongside the leader..guess it's still a positive if he settles in and doesn't try to engage the pace setter

I thought this spot was top 2 or 3 logical factoring class and timing..I agree str that ideally you'd want him going a half to 1 furlong shorter (latter probably more common) and this is an infrequent route distance .. with this long of a stretchout 2nd off the layoff ,as mentioned before, think it's possible that they won't view losing by 2-4 as such a bad thing .. it might set him up nicely for a more normal shorter route distance next out and that would be good progress at this point


Yeah, I agree but... maybe it's just me and my view of what could be and of course my old school baby step thoughts but I can't see me viewing losing at this point as anything but not good. Kind of like, he is considered very good by me until he shows he isn't, mentality. That's probably old fashion and incorrect these days. IDK.

with a good effort here,which is far from a certanty, I'll take a shot and say monmouth will be his next destination .. there are two consecutive races there that fit the bill very well..if he runs
really big they might set the bar a little higher than that


I do remember that Monmouth had some good older long dirt races in the summer that were not G-1 stuff. That would be a good fit probably.

thing that bothers me about the race setup is it looks like he might be a lone stalker and have always felt that to be a disadvantage..horse out front (in this case #5) likely to set reasonable to slow fractions and KB will be forced to do the dirty work of attacking earlier than he'd want otherwise leader might be gone..would like to see more if he could sit behind a more normal scenario with a presser type alongside the leader..guess it's still a positive if he settles in and doesn't try to engage the pace setter

Agree that lone stalkers chasing a lone speed allows for a detrimental pace scenario. The lead horse saves as much or more energy as the stalker.

The speed, Laughing Boy, to KB's outside does have some bigger Beyer numbers but for me, he does not win while creating those. His only win on paper is at Penn. Nat and he has given up a clear lead in 48 and 1:13 and change twice. The last effort was great at 50-1 Very fast , did lose but a very good 2nd at 50-1. Was that a huge speed bias day?? I would have to check on that to form a final decision. If so, he is not as good maybe as that shows. But if not... can't say it was anything but a really solid effort.

If it's actually Christmas morning, Smile Happy runs up inside Laughing Boy and KB sits alone 3rd to a duel. That would be perfect but we all know Christmas morning only comes once a year. Oh well, I'm ready to watch and learn.
GL to us JBEX.

So I think it is more again about himself. Who he is currently, and of course, his mindset. If he loses, for me it will all be about HOW he lost. If he wins, the how can still be very important. If he fades, well, ouch, most likely.

[JBEX]

I thought this spot was top 2 or 3 logical factoring class and timing..I agree str that ideally you'd want him going a half to 1 furlong shorter (latter probably more common) and this is an infrequent route distance .. with this long of a stretchout 2nd off the layoff ,as mentioned before, think it's possible that they won't view losing by 2-4 as such a bad thing .. it might set him up nicely for a more normal shorter route distance next out and that would be good progress at this point


Yeah, I agree but... maybe it's just me and my view of what could be and of course my old school baby step thoughts but I can't see me viewing losing at this point as anything but not good. Kind of like, he is considered very good by me until he shows he isn't, mentality. That's probably old fashion and incorrect these days. IDK.

with a good effort here,which is far from a certanty, I'll take a shot and say monmouth will be his next destination .. there are two consecutive races there that fit the bill very well..if he runs
really big they might set the bar a little higher than that


I do remember that Monmouth had some good older long dirt races in the summer that were not G-1 stuff. That would be a good fit probably.

thing that bothers me about the race setup is it looks like he might be a lone stalker and have always felt that to be a disadvantage..horse out front (in this case #5) likely to set reasonable to slow fractions and KB will be forced to do the dirty work of attacking earlier than he'd want otherwise leader might be gone..would like to see more if he could sit behind a more normal scenario with a presser type alongside the leader..guess it's still a positive if he settles in and doesn't try to engage the pace setter

Agree that lone stalkers chasing a lone speed allows for a detrimental pace scenario. The lead horse saves as much or more energy as the stalker.

The speed, Laughing Boy, to KB's outside does have some bigger Beyer numbers but for me, he does not win while creating those. His only win on paper is at Penn. Nat and he has given up a clear lead in 48 and 1:13 and change twice. The last effort was great at 50-1 Very fast , did lose but a very good 2nd at 50-1. Was that a huge speed bias day?? I would have to check on that to form a final decision. If so, he is not as good maybe as that shows. But if not... can't say it was anything but a really solid effort.

If it's actually Christmas morning, Smile Happy runs up inside Laughing Boy and KB sits alone 3rd to a duel. That would be perfect but we all know Christmas morning only comes once a year. Oh well, I'm ready to watch and learn.
GL to us JBEX.

So I think it is more again about himself. Who he is currently, and of course, his mindset. If he loses, for me it will all be about HOW he lost. If he wins, the how can still be very important. If he fades, well, ouch, most likely.

it's certainly not going to be the pace scenario in the la derby last year..bring that up of course because it's the same distance..to explain to everybody he was the lone speed on a very soft pace..I'm happy with a little less than you from him but of course would love to see a win here..convincing win even better..whitney @ saratoga here we come..bar too high lol

[str]

it's certainly not going to be the pace scenario in the la derby last year..bring that up of course because it's the same distance..to explain to everybody he was the lone speed on a very soft pace..I'm happy with a little less than you from him but of course would love to see a win here..convincing win even better..whitney @ saratoga here we come..bar too high lol

No. I’ve already thought of him winning here, Monmouth at least once and going for the Whitney and the Classic. I know it’s just a dream but when I do dream, it’s usually big with a scaled down secondary thought.
I’ve Always done that. Had at least two come true . Some lesser ones as well .
Many fell short but were worth the thought.
Dreams are free and for me, can drive me to places I never really thought we’re reachable.
So let’s dream JBEX. At least until about 5:30 or so . Lol.

[JBEX]

No. I’ve already thought of him winning here, Monmouth at least once and going for the Whitney and the Classic. I know it’s just a dream but when I do dream, it’s usually big with a scaled down secondary thought.
I’ve Always done that. Had at least two come true . Some lesser ones as well .
Many fell short but were worth the thought.
Dreams are free and for me, can drive me to places I never really thought we’re reachable.
So let’s dream JBEX. At least until about 5:30 or so . Lol.

a win here and in his next ,wherever that might be, and guess the whitney's not out of the question..yes dream remains alive till 5:30 ..go get em KB !


.

[JBEX]

looks like KB learned his lessons well..able to relax,settle (didn't go after the 5) and ran a big race
..couple of other notes ..andie biancone of fan duel mentioned how great he looks as a 4yo..in the pre race interview on fan duel with scott hazleton,general manager of spendthrift seems anxious to run him against G1's to establish him as a stallion (for them)..have a hunch monmouth might not be the next stop ..if it were me (hey I can have an opinion lol) I'd still want to get a
another g3 in him before going in the deep waters..I think a little more foundation at a shorter route distance would be a good thing (one of the mth races). he has certainly been an interesting follow the past couple of years and look forward to his next start wherever that may be

[str]

looks like KB learned his lessons well..able to relax,settle (didn't go after the 5) and ran a big race
..couple of other notes ..andie biancone of fan duel mentioned how great he looks as a 4yo..in the pre race interview on fan duel with scott hazleton,general manager of spendthrift seems anxious to run him against G1's to establish him as a stallion (for them)..have a hunch monmouth might not be the next stop ..if it were me (hey I can have an opinion lol) I'd still want to get a
another g3 in him before going in the deep waters..I think a little more foundation at a shorter route distance would be a good thing (one of the mth races). he has certainly been an interesting follow the past couple of years and look forward to his next start wherever that may be

I was as pleased as I could be not as much when he didn't run after the speed, but listened to his rider as the 9 went by him just before and into the 1st turn. He barely thought about it for more than a jump or two it looked like. Lessons well taught and lessons understood. Wow. That is awesome.
He was always ready to go, and was not thinking for himself but listening for his pilot to talk to him through the bit and reigns. Very cool stuff.
Once he responded immediately to the rider as the went to the far turn, he was in great shape. Mainly IMO because he responded but within himself, with a gear or two left, not relax to explode but relax, respond , further respond, into the stretch draw clear. Just like it was drawn up. He showed multiple gears not relax , explode. A good horse needs that unless you are Seattle Slew.

As for looks, yes, he looked great ! He has matured. Scott's job is to try and win a Grade 1 but Todd's job is to get him there in a progression. Another G-3 or maybe G-2 would be ideal if the schedule allows. There is no reason to rush to a Grade 1 at this point. All the big name races are in the later summer and fall as you know.
I'm with you as for the schedule. They have been very patient with him so far. Got to sit chilly for another race or so IMO. Patience Grasshopper .

https://youtu.be/gbNCBVzPYak

I loved this stuff as a kid. And because I helped teach blind people how to swim when I was 14,15,16, I knew this was true somewhat in my mind but after that experience, it was spot on. Man the things you learn along the way that you never expected to.

Kingsbarns has been a great follow since last winter. Really draws you into the thought process of training. I always loved that part of it and I really love when a plan comes together. So far, it has.

Thanks JBEX. Great call by you on this guy in the beginning. You drew me into this so thank you. I appreciate it a lot.

The journey continues.

[JBEX]

I was as pleased as I could be not as much when he didn't run after the speed, but listened to his rider as the 9 went by him just before and into the 1st turn. He barely thought about it for more than a jump or two it looked like. Lessons well taught and lessons understood. Wow. That is awesome.
He was always ready to go, and was not thinking for himself but listening for his pilot to talk to him through the bit and reigns. Very cool stuff.
Once he responded immediately to the rider as the went to the far turn, he was in great shape. Mainly IMO because he responded but within himself, with a gear or two left, not relax to explode but relax, respond , further respond, into the stretch draw clear. Just like it was drawn up. He showed multiple gears not relax , explode. A good horse needs that unless you are Seattle Slew.

As for looks, yes, he looked great ! He has matured. Scott's job is to try and win a Grade 1 but Todd's job is to get him there in a progression. Another G-3 or maybe G-2 would be ideal if the schedule allows. There is no reason to rush to a Grade 1 at this point. All the big name races are in the later summer and fall as you know.
I'm with you as for the schedule. They have been very patient with him so far. Got to sit chilly for another race or so IMO. Patience Grasshopper .

https://youtu.be/gbNCBVzPYak

I loved this stuff as a kid. And because I helped teach blind people how to swim when I was 14,15,16, I knew this was true somewhat in my mind but after that experience, it was spot on. Man the things you learn along the way that you never expected to.

Kingsbarns has been a great follow since last winter. Really draws you into the thought process of training. I always loved that part of it and I really love when a plan comes together. So far, it has.

Thanks JBEX. Great call by you on this guy in the beginning. You drew me into this so thank you. I appreciate it a lot.

The journey continues.

no problem str and as I said ..I've enjoyed the process also

you describe it better as it really comes down to taking cues from the jockey through the bit and reigns and he showed the ability to do that here..the gears is something I wouldn't have noticed (but have heard of) and obviously a necessary or at least important thing to have for a talented horse..guessing it is possible for some horses to follow instructions into the 1st turn but not automatically on the far turn

used to enjoy kung fu (the show lol) although I was a little young to appreciate the lessons ..nice of you to teach swimming to the blind kids..being patient has certain contributed to KB's improvement

glad you agree that he needs another before meeting the best..as I said and you agree the mth races aren't a bad option ..the salvatore mile (g3) on 6/15 seems like pretty good timing and then you have the option of being conservative with the phillip iselin or aggressive with the whitney..sure todd will make the right call wherever he decides to run him

[str]

A DRF quote :"Deterministic, who earned enough qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his victory in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 2, finished eighth in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 6 with no apparent excuse."

My Answer : You can't be serious? (Borrowed from John McEnroe).


Quote: “After speaking with the owners, the decision is made not to go for the Derby,” Clement said Sunday afternoon. “He had a decent work this morning, we’ll keep all the New York options open.”

The Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan on May 11 is the next stakes race for 3-year-olds and is among the options for Deterministic.
On Sunday, Deterministic returned to the work tab, breezing five furlongs in 1:02.86 over the Belmont Park training track. Deterministic started the work at the half-mile pole and about a length behind the New York-bred 3-year-old filly The Shoe Lady. Deterministic drew even at the three-sixteenths pole, came to the wire together with The Shoe Lady before edging away from the workmate a furlong past the wire. He galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.67.
“Maintenance work, I thought he looked well and came back in good shape,” Clement said after the move.


My answer: Might want to get your popcorn ready.

We will keep an eye on this.

[JBEX]

A DRF quote :"Deterministic, who earned enough qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his victory in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 2, finished eighth in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 6 with no apparent excuse."

My Answer : You can't be serious? (Borrowed from John McEnroe).


Quote: “After speaking with the owners, the decision is made not to go for the Derby,” Clement said Sunday afternoon. “He had a decent work this morning, we’ll keep all the New York options open.”

The Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan on May 11 is the next stakes race for 3-year-olds and is among the options for Deterministic.
On Sunday, Deterministic returned to the work tab, breezing five furlongs in 1:02.86 over the Belmont Park training track. Deterministic started the work at the half-mile pole and about a length behind the New York-bred 3-year-old filly The Shoe Lady. Deterministic drew even at the three-sixteenths pole, came to the wire together with The Shoe Lady before edging away from the workmate a furlong past the wire. He galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.67.
“Maintenance work, I thought he looked well and came back in good shape,” Clement said after the move.


My answer: Might want to get your popcorn ready.

We will keep an eye on this.

guess the drf is a good barometer of how a very large % of bettors in his next start will view his last race .. my guess is only a fraction of a percent of the betting public would see the race the way you did (meaning they didn't have the knowledge to recognize it)..definitely will add some value if you're betting him next out


as you know the peter pan at belmont is around 1 turn but it'll be 2 turns this year cause the meet will be at aqueduct again..say this because you thought it might make more sense to go one turn next out to reset from the trouble around 2 turns in the wood..so basically he'd be running at 9f again at aqueduct just like he did last out in the wood memorial..understand nothing definitive yet but seems like they might consider trying the same layout again..it would be a class drop from the wood so maybe that compensates a bit for his trouble last out ..if they decide to do it I'd feel pretty good about his chances as I don't think they'd rush anything with this horse


2 things McEnroe was great at ..serve and volley and tirades lol..loved watching him play at the peak of his game

[str]

guess the drf is a good barometer of how a very large % of bettors in his next start will view his last race .. my guess is only a fraction of a percent of the betting public would see the race the way you did (meaning they didn't have the knowledge to recognize it)..definitely will add some value if you're betting him next out


as you know the peter pan at belmont is around 1 turn but it'll be 2 turns this year cause the meet will be at aqueduct again..say this because you thought it might make more sense to go one turn next out to reset from the trouble around 2 turns in the wood..so basically he'd be running at 9f again at aqueduct just like he did last out in the wood memorial..understand nothing definitive yet but seems like they might consider trying the same layout again..it would be a class drop from the wood so maybe that compensates a bit for his trouble last out ..if they decide to do it I'd feel pretty good about his chances as I don't think they'd rush anything with this horse


2 things McEnroe was great at ..serve and volley and tirades lol..loved watching him play at the peak of his game

Your right. I did not think of that when I saw the Peter Pan name pop up. Was kind of licking my chops like it was almost a gimmie. Lol.

But even still, it will be interesting to see his odds and what the public thinks as well as how the horse will respond after training towards what was supposed to happen in his head last time.

And McEnroe. He was unreal.

[JBEX]

I'd love to see him try it but understand if they decide to pass..we both would like to see him have a nice career and that's much more important than running him back quick..the pp might be a better prep this year as the belnont will be run @ 10f at saratoga ..shorter stretchout and both 2 turns


a little McEnroe

https://youtube.com/shorts/6YO3jhQ8hRg?si=HcJCsNqdc0ogP5bR

.

[JBEX]

I'd love to see him try it but understand if they decide to pass..we both would like to see him have a nice career and that's much more important than running him back quick..the pp might be a better prep this year the belmont will be run @ 10f at saratoga as shorter stretchout and both 2 turns


a little McEnroe

https://youtube.com/shorts/6YO3jhQ8hRg?si=HcJCsNqdc0ogP5bR

.

where he broke his maiden 1st time out @ 7f..I think this path makes sense if the horse is ready






.