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In the 6th people will see the 1 and 1A but they were the 9 and 6 post. So the triple was 9-6-10 by post position.
I saw one horse run through the bias so far and that horse was in the 2-3 path as best I could tell and solo on the lead. Everybody else is outside trips.
Great notes to take for inside trips next time as well as the all trips. This stuff is what I talk about when I speak about adding to your form and having info others do not have.Comment -
yes great info going forwardComment -
9 - 2 -12 -10 and outside posts were big oddsComment -
odds ridiculously high on the outside posts in the 8th
45/90/20/90 ..8-11 posts so that's forgiveable..the #10 @ 20-1 ran a decent 4th..actually just moved to 3rd via disqualificationComment -
$25.00-Feed/bedding
$19.65-Rider
$20.85-Groom
$16.50-Hotwalker
$10.00-Tack/Supplies
$3.50-Worker’s Comp Ins
$1.50-Paid Leave Ins
$1.50-Liability Ins
All of this equals $98.50
which is what Ive known average
but how many horses will hot walker/rider/groom do a day?
Comment -
A hot walker might walk 7 horses a day. Give or take one. A groom typically rubs 4 horses. It can be 5 but they better know what they are doing. New grooms typically start with 3.
Riders typically get on about 8 a day. More if they are hustling. Just depends on the situation.
I think you are trying to get a read on a typical outfit that has a barn full . These numbers represent that.Comment -
Thanks sir
about what I expected
I was looking at some equine classes
if I didn’t have to move to jersey so young
I bet I coulda been more involved staying Louisville
But still time
maybe on the writing / capping end atleast for nowComment -
Gulfstream Thursday,
I just began to write on the card.
You can find PP’s here for race 1
Race 1
—Just outta curiosity I wanna write about the #3 Jack Beanstalk , Trained by Norm Casse , Mark’s son, and married to Gabby Gaudet. So they pay 50k for this horse which was like 7x the stud fee. first 2 on turf, and did nothing vs much much much stronger than these. Then ran in the slop, and 2 on the firm dirt. However they did work this one of the turf before the last 2 on the dirt, This horse finally starting cashing checks on dirt after that turf work, running 3rd and 2nd 8 days apart last month. Now they go to the grass in a race that you don’t need to be much to win.
Im completely Lost on the barns thought process w/ the 3... Would love your opinion
ill be passing the race, so no need to handicapp itLast edited by Louisvillekid1; 04-07-20, 07:08 AM.Comment -
my buddies horse debuting
currently #20 in points
scroll down for the videoComment -
They struggling to find a spot now
casse in good hands
but this horse gonna be a monster 1 turn going forward nonethelessComment -
My buddy bred this horse and made half a mil plus 20% purse and 20% sure fees
these khozans are killing
I’ve shared before but just sharing again
sorry for clogging up best thread on this siteComment -
I can see where you are left to guess as to the barns thought process. When I see a case like that, or this, first thing I look for something different. By that I mean, was a lesser rider on it last time and a switch to a top name? Or maybe more importantly, a big name rider on it last time and a different rider this time?Gulfstream Thursday,
I just began to write on the card.
You can find PP’s here for race 1
Race 1
—Just outta curiosity I wanna write about the #3 Jack Beanstalk , Trained by Norm Casse , Mark’s son, and married to Gabby Gaudet. So they pay 50k for this horse which was like 7x the stud fee. first 2 on turf, and did nothing vs much much much stronger than these. Then ran in the slop, and 2 on the firm dirt. However they did work this one of the turf before the last 2 on the dirt, This horse finally starting cashing checks on dirt after that turf work, running 3rd and 2nd 8 days apart last month. Now they go to the grass in a race that you don’t need to be much to win.
Im completely Lost on the barns thought process w/ the 3... Would love your opinion
ill be passing the race, so no need to handicapp it
I look at that because when a trainer thinks something different than the obvious which would have been to simply try and run back in the same spot next out and be 6-5 again, the whole team needs to be on board. So if I was following the races the way I would, was this horse entered in a sprint like last week and did not get in making this race a secondary choice ? Or did they point to this race off that last race? As a trainer, I hated moving a horse out of a 6-5 spot to try something else unless I was forced to by a lack of the race or not getting in or something. Making a horse 6-5 is what a trainers wants to try and do. Once you are there, leaving that spot seems to be taking it for granted.
Because I see Seaz back on the horse, it leads me to believe that he is on the same page as the trainer. They agree that it is well worth running a mile at this time. It is very common for a jock to have a conversation in the morning a couple of days a week with a trainers who rides him on plenty of horses in the barn. Don't know if this is the case or not.
Now maybe like I said, the horse wanted to run shorter and didn't get in, but guessing, I would think that if it was a last minute change to do this, Seaz would have probably already given a first call to another horse. Probably a favorite. But if Seaz won this race last out, maybe not. See, we should know that as well just by following the circuit. Or, if not, having access to charts to see if he did win this race last out. Or, did he take off another horse to ride this one.
I know this sounds really complicated and many cappers will just roll their eyes at this. But... this is exactly how large betting players play it. And it is exactly how the game is played by riders and trainers.
But because we are limited in this stuff, when I see Seaz back on the horse, I will assume that they are all on the same page and agree it is good to try it. So with that said, the horse looks tough to beat. And at short odds, IMO not worthy of a play because of the unknowns. But I see the 6-1 morning line. At 6-1 why not play it ? But I cannot imagine the horse will be close to that. It was 6-5 last out and finished 2nd and beat the field 8 3/4 lengths.
If there was a price to find, that will close into what with luck would be a fast pace for these types, that would be the direction I would look. There are other speed horses in here.
Hope all this helps and doesn't confuse the process. Just thought it was solid info to know that riders and trainers have discussions all the time about horses prior to entering them, especially when they are stretching out or turning back, adding or removing blinkers, or that sort of thing. Not always, as the trainer has an opinion that will override everything but especially if the trainer is wanting a riders opinion to help them make their next move.
Thanks LKID.Comment -
That's great kid! It is always the most exciting feeling in racing to think of the Derby. Good for them . I wish them nothing but the best of luck.
And you never clog up this thread. It's people like you and the rest of the gang that keep it going.
Talking about the track will never get old for me. It was my life and you just don't unplug that.
Thanks pal.Comment -
Thanks the response
makes sense
tough to readComment -
hey str.. we were going back and forth in lkid's gulfstream thread about pletcher running an $800k purchase for a $12.5 tag.. like your opinion even if it's after the raceComment -
I’ve noticed a lot of horses dropping ^ not that extreme of course , but just cashing Lower level purse money , and not as much horses seem to be getting claimed during this covid -19
as they go hand in handComment -
I think it is just a case of a horse that cannot run. He does want wins but he is putting the horse where it should have a solid chance to win and get claimed. He has pretty much lost all confidence in the horse being anything.
He probably wants the stall at this point so he can put the next one up in it.Comment -
it was a 2 way shake for that horseComment -
Got lucky on saw it on Twitter
I wish there was live updated website with claimsComment -
interesting.. wouldn't be surprised if they were less than thrilled they put in when they saw how he was not bet.. kind of a sign something was amiss.. seems like a good tampa bay prospectComment -
For the trainers that put in the claim, if we are all on the same page, they were probably hopeful of a 10 length win or, losing by a nose. Either of those two situations makes the horse the favorite next out. You hate to lose any lifetime conditions when you claim a maiden. So, at least finishing 4th allows to run back in the same race or lesser.
Kid said there was a 2 way shake. Could you see the process on twitter Kid?
Certainly would be interesting to watch. Think that's what you were referring to kid. If management had even a clue of how to drum up interest, they would show it on the in house TV every time it occured. Fans would love that stuff.
I remember recommending they do a taped go to the barn segment every few weeks on a Saturday or something like that, where they film the trainer watching their horses or seeing the horses gallop or getting a bath, hell anything to drum up business. Putting animals in TV commercials has worked forever. God forbid the tracks lean on the actual horse to promote horse racing. Duh!
They did start a meet the trainer and jockey show every Saturday at Laurel back in the 80's when Frank Defrancis bought the track. Did a couple of those, one with a jock named James Moseley for any old timers that remember him. He rode in Md. but also in NJ for a long time.
Forget the other jock, think it was a bug, but not sure. It wasn't bad but it would start at 11:30 AM an hour and a 1/2 before the 1st race. That made it tough on fans to see it. Should have taped it and showed replays of it so more could have seen it. The announcer Dick Woolley had a call in radio show on Friday nights in Baltimore that was also popular. Those were good.
So many ways to promote the game , especially with all betting eyes on it right now. So many wasted opportunities.
Business as usual I guess.Comment -
Last Saturday and Sunday, if you blindly played the far outside posts in exactas, triples and supers you would have done very well.
The track was muddy and the inside was bogging horses down . Nothing they could do about it because of the mud.
Next racing day was Thursday, the track was dry and they obviously graded the heck out of the track because the inside was the place to be. When you have to move that much cushion, it is really hard to get it exactly right. One quarter of an inch is a big deal. Seems as though that is what happened.
On Friday it seemed to be wanting to turn back towards the outside but was not there yet. Maybe slightly but a superior inside horse could still win.
That takes us to today. Looks like it could be rain. Don't know though. If so, and the track becomes muddy, watch closely for a bias. If they cannot grade it, the outside might very well come alive like it was last Saturday in the mud. And if the mud persists, Sunday will should be more severe than Saturday. However, if they DID grade out of anticipation of the weather, the rail could be golden like it was on Wednesday.
I've paid virtually no attention to Oaklawn ever except for the last week and seen 2 strong outside biases and one strong inside bias. That is a note takers dream to keep those dates and plug them in on horses when they run back off those dates. It is great info that helps find a lot of prices as well as plenty of bet against horses who are typically bet down off of a solid last effort on a biased track that very few know about. A solid edge if you look for it.
Hope that helps everyone. Good Luck if you play today.Comment -
Sorry kid. Missed this one.
Guess it is a good time to drop a horse and try and steal a race.
My best guess is that some owners want to pause in claiming so as not to have to carry the horse into uncertain times. Doesn't really make sense to me but thats all I can come up with.
Not sure if it is a smart move or a lost opportunity. I lean the latter.Comment -
hey str
was wondering if you could take a peak at the winner in R11 at gulfstream #6 varanasi $27.60
found it interesting she came off a similar layoff last year for a win at gulfstream .also that they stopped on her after a not so bad effort at laurel on 8/4..think maybe this horse had an issue that required at least a few months off and then they decided to do what worked last year... bring her back to gulfstream off a the long layoff ?Comment -
Yes. I do think she had a problem either in that 8/4 race or shortly thereafter and needed 90-110 days off. Then about the same training back.
One handicapping tool I have always sworn by is if you see a horse run big 1st of an extended layoff or as a firster. Yes, trainers have plenty to do with that and it is necessary to see that a trainer likes running well off the lay. But that also extends to each horse that is off a layoff. (Something I would not have known had I not worked there.) Why? Because just like people, some horses will carry excess weight that is harder to shed than it would be for other horses or need racing to build up their lung capacity. Works or long gallops just won't get them there sometimes. The norm is that a horse CAN be ready to win off the layoff if trained for it and pointed to do so, but sometimes even that is not enough. So when you see a horse that ran real well as a firster or off 6 months or longer previously, you know that the horse can do it. If you see a trainer that is real good with firsters and the horse does NOT run well, that usually leads to the horse. Makes sense right?
Now to the trainer. Those stats these days are right on the page to see. And as you know, some trainers just are not going to put all that pressure on a horse off a long layoff while others definitely will. So that stat is important. We know that Todd does.
And lastly, when you see a trainer AND the horse that are both very good off time, that must be strongly considered.
In this horse's case, its last race at Laurel , on form, should have been a winner. But she ran 4th as the even money favorite. (Going on memory from seeing it yesterday so I might be a little off.)
So what it came down to was, is the horse not good enough to win at Laurel or was the horse injured to some extent in that effort and you need to draw a line through that race. It is obvious now that the answer was draw a line through the race.
Two other things I would consider. Does the trainer have one of his his favorite riders booked to ride the horse first off the layoff? I want to see who the jockey is riding if it is not the one we are talking about. Maybe he was already committed to ride for the other trainer. You can see that in the form as well. In this case, was that one of his riders he regularly uses? I saw Seaz ride for Timmy Hills on a similar off time horse. Don't know what that means if anything but I noticed that. I was friends with Tim 40 years ago when he was in Md. and when I saw that, that drew me towards his horse.
Do know that jockeys and trainers get it wrong often enough that it can throw you sometimes, but over time, they usually get it right more often than not. This might have been one of those times when they got it wrong. Don't know for sure though. And by that I mean Seaz and Tim not Todd.
Lastly is the tote board. Todds firsters talk to you on the odds board usually. But I do not know about older horses off time. Just don't follow it enough to know. I know it is rare to see his horses pay that much but I doubt that all the gossip happens with older horses off time as compared to babies and firsters. Never did when I was there. So I'm not so sure that the lack of play on the horse meant anything at all.
Nobody will always be right with this stuff but that would have been a nice hit if you played it. And plenty did. They deserve all they got.
So for me, right or wrong, that his how I piece a race together. I go through from the decisions I see others make like the rider, trainer, agent and so on. Not solely, but I do see the form from that angle as well as others like shape of race with speed, stalk, close, how the surface is playing, etc. Making your picks early limits that approach as we all know so for you, you need to lean on those first two or three if available things we are talking about if they make sense to you.
Hope all that makes sense.
Thanks JBEX. Stay well.Comment -
I know you've discussed before some horses are capable and others aren't of winning first out or off a layoff and that's certainly very important to understand..trainer can't make up for a horse not capable of doing it..guess you could use that the other way also with a trainer who usually doesn't try and occasionally gets a horse that's capable of doing it..maybe a precocious pedigree,above average works or betting action might signal something
in this case jock today (zayas) won with him off the long break last year and saez was riding a solid 2yo that he rode for hills last year so to me jock assignments make sense..to me also the last race at laurel even though she finished 4th it was a close 4th and was on the front end of a wicked fast pace by the brisnet figures..something probably wrong after that race otherwise would have run her again in 2019..but the big thing to take away is a horse capable of running well off a long layoff and a trainer who
can have one ready under those circumstances..
one other note..I think the slow last figure at laurel might have thrown people off but that might have been partly due to being pressured on the front end of an extremely fast pace ..by the comment looks like he was doing it on the rail also which as we've discussed not ideal..anyway there were a few hints imo..this is why as you've said sometimes pays to go back and look things over again..could learn something you could carry forward and help you at a future date
thanks str..stay safeComment -
Have any time to speak on how to teach a horse to rate?
lots of these maiden horses are just faster than their competition and while it looks like they are sprinters , their talent was just better
but some are just meant for 1 turn and want/need the lead
id imagine it’s difficult to decide ( how much does breeding factor in?)
if you fail trying to rate a horse, couldn’t it affect the short term future (profit)
It’s a set back if the horse can’t rate , or fails doing so
then ask to go back to sprinting
they will find it again , but costly as
I see this a lot with the horses on derby trail
Connections so hungry for triple crown
they force it
thanks in advanceLast edited by Louisvillekid1; 04-13-20, 06:55 PM.Comment -
I’ll go ahead guess the plan and teaching operation starts early , before their first raceComment -
just saw something at fonner park that is very confusing.. all 10 horses in the gate ready for the start.. #8 violently acts up and looks like from a distance he's on his hind quarters.. of course jockey jumped off and they did upright the horse fairly quickly.. everybody backed out of the gate.. they scratch the 8 and the 7 but they also scratch the 5 ?? can understand the 7 as he was right next to him but the 5..what's your guess why he had to be scratched?Comment -
Q. in this case jock today (zayas) won with him off the long break last year
A. I did not realize that. That makes a big difference. I did the old 2 minute handicap and failed to see that.
Q. .anyway there were a few hints imo..this is why as you've said sometimes pays to go back and look things over again..could learn something you could carry forward and help you at a future date
A. Absolutely. You pieced this horses form together perfectly. Classic case of reading between the lines. Great catch !Comment
