Horse Racing questions and answers

**str** · 03-27-20, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

I see ..it's all speculative..but in general the open 6250's will be a signficantly tougher bunch ?

Probably about 5 lengths from nw2/y 5k to open 6250.

Assuming there is a nw1/y, nw2/y, open 5k, and then 6250.

My guess if all 4 races would fill would be about 7 or 8, 6 or 7 and 3 lengths weaker than the 6250 as I wrote them.

That about what it was in Maryland typically. All things being equal which I say because tougher than normal horses can become eligible for those beatens sometimes.

Make sense?

**str** · 03-27-20, 01:00 PM

On a side note, Saez is 6 back and 7 to win ( pretty sure that is right) the riding title at Gulfstream after taking both ends of the daily double.

Guy is riding for a cause no doubt. Ortiz is not riding so it's right there for the taking. He is riding his brains out right now. I know he will be over bet but I can't imaging he does not win 6-7 more between today and tomorrow.

**JBEX** · 03-27-20, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by str

Probably about 5 lengths from nw2/y 5k to open 6250.

Assuming there is a nw1/y, nw2/y, open 5k, and then 6250.

My guess if all 4 races would fill would be about 7 or 8, 6 or 7 and 3 lengths weaker than the 6250 as I wrote them.

That about what it was in Maryland typically. All things being equal which I say because tougher than normal horses can become eligible for those beatens sometimes.

Make sense?

pretty sure there's no open 5k there and it goes straight to 6250..i will check in the condition book though.. understand the lengths I believe (like clm 5kn1y would 7-8 lengths slower than open clm 6.25k) if there was a open 5k it would probably be about 3 lengths slower than the 6.25k's..

I never thought of it but think I get what you mean with the non winners sometimes being tougher than normal.. guess you'll get some legit 6.25's and 8's (open and next 2 levels) dropping in when they're eligible

**str** · 03-27-20, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

pretty sure there's no open 5k there and it goes straight to 6250..i will check in the condition book though.. understand the lengths I believe (like clm 5kn1y would 7-8 lengths slower than open clm 6.25k) if there was a open 5k it would probably be about 3 lengths slower than the 6.25k's..

I never thought of it but think I get what you mean with the non winners sometimes being tougher than normal.. guess you'll get some legit 6.25's and 8's (open and next 2 levels) dropping in when they're eligible

Yes and Yes.

If there is no open 5k then the 6250 is the bottom open? if so yoy would need to trim som lengths off that estimation. Why? Because the saying is " the bottom is the bottom".

For instance back in the day, a NY open 12.5 that could not win up there would try open 11.5 at Bowie let's say, and they could not win.

Thats because 11.5 was the 4th declension up of open horses . The bottom in NY was trying to beat them and typically could not. Remember, NY was " better" quality of horse than Maryland which was true. Our open 20's had a tough time against their open 20's.
But the bottom, not so much.

So if no open 5k , just 2 beaten categories, I guess I would reduce the lengths from 7-8 and 6-7 down to 4-5 and 3-4. Mainly because the 6250 would basically be a nw/3 in a year for 5k.
Sound right?

**JBEX** · 03-27-20, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by str

Yes and Yes.

If there is no open 5k then the 6250 is the bottom open? if so yoy would need to trim som lengths off that estimation. Why? Because the saying is " the bottom is the bottom".

For instance back in the day, a NY open 12.5 that could not win up there would try open 11.5 at Bowie let's say, and they could not win.

Thats because 11.5 was the 4th declension up of open horses . The bottom in NY was trying to beat them and typically could not. Remember, NY was " better" quality of horse than Maryland which was true. Our open 20's had a tough time against their open 20's.
But the bottom, not so much.

So if no open 5k , just 2 beaten categories, I guess I would reduce the lengths from 7-8 and 6-7 down to 4-5 and 3-4. Mainly because the 6250 would basically be a nw/3 in a year for 5k.
Sound right?

makes sense that if 6250 is only 2 rungs up 4-5 and 3-4 lengths more likely.. checked and there is no 5k open.. goes 6.25/7-8/10/10-12.5/16...then they have n2 life or n3 life @8/12.5/16/25 with the 2 highest levels mostly turf races.. that's a whole n other discussion we won't start on right now lol!

**JBEX** · 03-27-20, 01:45 PM

also important 5 is the only level where there's n1y or n2y races

**JBEX** · 03-27-20, 02:13 PM

guessing you never shipped there but have you ever visited? I never have but a friend of mine who just recently passed said it's a beautiful track.. nice people, relaxed atmosphere know and an enjoyable place to spend the day...from a business standpoint not so much as relative to the class levels the purses suck

**str** · 03-29-20, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

guessing you never shipped there but have you ever visited? I never have but a friend of mine who just recently passed said it's a beautiful track.. nice people, relaxed atmosphere know and an enjoyable place to spend the day...from a business standpoint not so much as relative to the class levels the purses suck

No. I have never been there to race or to see it. I have heard it is all you said as well.

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 06:15 PM

Understanding conditions is extremely important and sometimes overlooked by handicappers.

An angle I used a lot , is at many tracks the lowest condition level is on dirt , and if a mainly turf horse is dropping to run on dirt at a lower level to move up to the next condition in the future it’s really overlooked. Punters, will say this horse is trying a new surface or find negatives , often creating value for the handicapper.

I see it around the conditions you guys are talking

I.e Track may have 8k as the lowest level on grass

but 5/6k on dirt

turf horse drops after attempts at that 8k

goes green to brown @ 5/6k and wires em

moves on...

**JBEX** · 03-29-20, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Understanding conditions is extremely important and sometimes overlooked by handicappers.

An angle I used a lot , is at many tracks the lowest condition level is on dirt , and if a mainly turf horse is dropping to run on dirt at a lower level to move up to the next condition in the future it’s really overlooked. Punters, will say this horse is trying a new surface or find negatives , often creating value for the handicapper.

I see it around the conditions you guys are talking

I.e Track may have 8k as the lowest level on grass

but 5/6k on dirt

turf horse drops after attempts at that 8k

goes green to brown @ 5/6k and wires em

moves on...

I like it going route to sprint if the horse was within about 5 lengths to the stretch call...last eighth I actually prefer they fade as that to me might be a sign that a lot of running was done early on..also looks worse in the pp's..think this is an excellent conditioner and along with the class drop horse could be ready for a big effort next out..prefer the horse to have run well on the dirt in at least one of his previous races to use this

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 07:40 PM

Str, you didn’t check into my Florida derby thread

what did you think?

I felt like you woulda enjoyed it

I get the 96 Beyer came back low

and it’s shame there won’t be a natural triple crown this year

I think this horse is special , and want my fav rider manny Franco to get a chance at the big stage

barclay Tagg such an old time classic patient trainer ...

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

I like it going route to sprint if the horse was within about 5 lengths to the stretch call...last eighth I actually prefer they fade as that to me might be a sign that a lot of running was done early on..also looks worse in the pp's..think this is an excellent conditioner and along with the class drop horse could be ready for a big effort next out..prefer the horse to have run well on the dirt in at least one of his previous races to use this

Most at these levels do debut on dirt

**JBEX** · 03-29-20, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Most at these levels do debut on dirt

true at this low level it''s more likely that they ran a decent race on the dirt at some point

**Tellc1** · 03-29-20, 07:59 PM

Are there any good handicappers to follow for the Australia tracks?

**JBEX** · 03-29-20, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by Tellc1

Are there any good handicappers to follow for the Australia tracks?

nobody covers it in here and I don't know who the cappers are outside of here

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:07 PM

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:08 PM

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:08 PM

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:10 PM

Look you’ll appreciate this

recognize the jockeys in the first pick ?

jose on the horse in jockey school and my fav rider walking

then yesterday with the flowers

and those men started connections

barclay Tagg , Tom Voss , & the giant killer Allen Jerkens

thought you’d appreciate this

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:13 PM

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:14 PM

Who’s those

pat Venezuela , lil chad brown

**JBEX** · 03-29-20, 08:18 PM

manny stepping up to the next level with this win..wouldn't have gotten voss in the bottom picture...he's been out of it for quite a whIle now

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

manny stepping up to the next level with this win..wouldn't have gotten voss in the bottom picture...he's been out of it for quite a whIle now

who is mr. Voss on there, Johns Call

I’m know manny and tiz won’t get chance to triple crown it

but I’m so proud of him

and mr. Tagg for letting him keep the mount

he is ultra talented , and deserves this chance

bring on the baffert stable I say

**JBEX** · 03-29-20, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Who’s those

pat Venezuela , lil chad brown

great picture

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 08:23 PM

I love this sport like nothing other

jbex, str, others

we gotta get a beer sometime

love you guys

**JBEX** · 03-29-20, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

who is mr. Voss on there, Johns Call

I’m know manny and tiz won’t get chance to triple crown it

but I’m so proud of him

and mr. Tagg for letting him keep the mount

he is ultra talented , and deserves this chance

bring on the baffert stable I say

voss with the baseball cap ..john's call the horse sounds familiar from way back

really slow bunch this year on figures but it's all relative.. tiz the law best so far

yes nice to see him keep manny aboard.. as I said to str its too bad everything thrown off this year as I think barclay tagg (without looking) is past 80.. feel it loses some of it's specialness going in september

**Tellc1** · 03-29-20, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

nobody covers it in here and I don't know who the cappers are outside of here

Thank you Sir. Good job this weekend. I was tailing and glad I did with your big hit yesterday!

**JBEX** · 03-29-20, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by Tellc1

Thank you Sir. Good job this weekend. I was tailing and glad I did with your big hit yesterday!

no problem and glad to hear.. I like the hong kong product.. can understand the pp's whereas austraila there's not enough (or more precisely the right) info that I need.. never understand how you can handicap without 4 points of call but obviously some people do

**Jellymancan** · 03-29-20, 09:32 PM

Str, respect your opinion, best book for me to learn more about this sport. Been playing for couple years, but have so much more time now with obvious virus issues. Any recommendations? Anyone else can chime in as well. Hungry to learn.

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

Str, respect your opinion, best book for me to learn more about this sport. Been playing for couple years, but have so much more time now with obvious virus issues. Any recommendations? Anyone else can chime in as well. Hungry to learn.

have a plan going in

if you lose , you lose

don’t chase

it’ll eat you up

communicate

can’t play every race

play a pick 4 if you a single

play a pick 5 if you have 2 singles

play a pick 6 w/ 3 singles or payout / carryover days

but 1st and foremost respect the game

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 10:31 PM

It’s a trainers game

handicapp the reasons and potential

but jelly, never critique the horses

dont be like the degenerate caring about the exacta

love the sport

**Louisvillekid1** · 03-29-20, 10:45 PM

This sport takes hours

remember your not betting on horses per se’

you betting against the pari’ mutual pool

**JBEX** · 03-30-20, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

Str, respect your opinion, best book for me to learn more about this sport. Been playing for couple years, but have so much more time now with obvious virus issues. Any recommendations? Anyone else can chime in as well. Hungry to learn.

I like andy beyer's books..

beyer on speed
the winning horseplayer

two editions of each.. the updated versions the titles are in white lettering

and steve crist's

exotic betting

can't go wrong with any of those

**Jellymancan** · 03-30-20, 08:23 AM

Solid advice LKid, some of what you mentioned I already knew, but other stuff I didn't know. Much appreciated. Soaking it all up. And thanks JBEX for the suggestions.

**JBEX** · 03-30-20, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by Jellymancan

Solid advice LKid, some of what you mentioned I already knew, but other stuff I didn't know. Much appreciated. Soaking it all up. And thanks JBEX for the suggestions.

no problem jmc..anything by steve davidovitz,james quinn,dave litfin and an oldie but goodie mark cramer..his book thoroughbred cycles a good read ..but the primaries I'd say are beyer and crist..the latter more about wagering strategies and bet structuring