Horse Racing questions and answers

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  • str
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-12-09
    • 11560

    #3851
    Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
    Can somebody show str

    joel’s ride on in the 3rd yesterday

    and have I wanna hear from str

    Joel Rosario is top 6-7 imo in NY , some say top 5 in the world

    he has so many great rides but misses so many from bad timing

    I swear Joel has more losses by a neck than anymore

    and prob more wins by a nose than anyone

    and is strong on front end

    but this ride cost me life changing money

    wtf is wrong with him

    str, you know it’s all love, and I struggle sometimes

    but am I wrong?

    And not just this ride specifically

    I see it daily

    he’s kinda like pat day in a way

    but bottom line

    my fav riders don’t do this

    he does it ALL THE TIME... and everybody gives him a pass

    yes he missed break , fine , but zero chance after he checked was gonna win

    so let her go Atleast right ???

    prob wouldn’t of won

    but man zero speed in race and I thought wire job



    Sorry LKID. Sometimes the game can be so frustrating.

    I put the link in the response so everyone can easily get to it.

    So let's analyze the race this horse ran.

    First off, I see 3 dry horses, 1 with slight sweat and 1 soaking wet and all fired up. The 5 is somewhat warm, ( look at where the inner rein is rubbing on its neck and you will see slight marks). Now look at the 1 horse. Not what you hope for in late October. I do not know the horses history though but I do not like that. That said, the horse at the 1-2 second mark lunges forward hitting it's mouth ( I think) on the gate doors. OK, that happens, but the horse is showing it's angst by doing that. Certainly not collected and composed like you hope, want and at 3-5 expect. But the real problem is at 5 seconds, before the gates open, when he steps back with his right front. That should have been corrected. But... maybe this horse always acts like an ass in then gate. I don't know. But the sole reason he broke a step slow was because he had to take a step with his right front before he could go. That also made him break on his left lead. That is not cool at all. Hr needs to be on his right lead so he can switch to his left as he goes into the turn. In short, he was not in the same leg position as the others . That really cost him but it wasn't the end all. So he breaks slow and is trailing, but he is on the bit , understandable because he is all fired up but the expenditure of energy is a waste.
    He switches to his right lead, which is fine, at the 25-26 second mark. And that is why the rider has to grab him to not burn more energy.
    He was actually slightly outside so the rider put him back down inside ( which by the way, looked from this race and the charts to be a great place to be as the scrape marks through the lane looked very fresh and the inside seemed to dominate all day ), to help try and settle him which I totally agree with but then at 32-33 seconds the horse starts to run off inside and the rider has to severely pull him up. That is ALL on the horse NOT the rider. At that point, IMO, it would be a miracle if that horse can win. He has just burned waaay too much energy being an ass. I find all that has been wrong with this entire mess except getting his legs back under him prior to the start , on the horse not the rider.
    So by 33-35 seconds the horse is making the rider look like a jerk as he is checking again. He finally settles down after that . At the 1:00 mark the rider moves his hands thus asking the horse for some response. The response is half hearted and not what the rider wanted I doubt. So Joel needs some fresh goggles to see at 1:21 which is fully expected at that point. It looked to me that Joel did have somewhere to go around the turn but by 1:28 he does not again. Looks like the 5 horse came over and closed the door that might have been partially open around the turn. Again, the horses inability to go when asked. At 1:34 he is in a drive and if he responds, Joel can go out to the three path to be clear but there is no response yet again. He runs flat the rest of the way which was predictable because of all the energy loss early on.

    IMO, I put all of this except the standing evenly stuff in the gate directly on the horse. And maybe that as well if his gate history was the reason. IMO the horse made Joel look bad. I don't think the horse cooperated one bit throughout the race while racing on what seemed to be the best part of the race track as well. But obviously , so did the winner . I don't think any rider could have done any better in that situation.

    Sorry man. This game is so damn rewarding but can drive you nuts with details that you cannot control. And you know that I will tell you a rider screwed up in a New York minute if that is what happened. But in this case, the horse acted like an ass and made Joel look bad.
    As for Joel doing this often, I don't know. But if you see more instances of this post the link. I am always happy to look at any race and will tell you exactly how it is, IMO of course.

    All the best my friend.
    Comment
    • Louisvillekid1
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-17-07
      • 52143

      #3852
      Thank you

      for clearing that up

      my thought was after that break

      might as well just the horse go

      but thanks for expert opinion.
      Comment
      • mrginandtonic
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-11-09
        • 7731

        #3853
        Sir STR, remember a couple of weeks I asked about two first time starters, Turnagain Ride (ML 8-1) was trained by Chad Brown and Ashaar (ML 3-1) was trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Anyways, as it turned out, DRF experts were impressed by Ashaar as well and they have him a horse to watch. While Chad Brown horse was scratched and still hasn't run yet.

        Anyways, today there were two horses (the 7- Ra'ad and the 8- Thousand Words trained by Baffert and they were both in the 4th race. While Ra'ad was expensive ($500K), but the 8- Thousand Words was a whopping $1 million!! If you get a chance, can you take a look at the replay and let me know what you thought. I thought he was very impressive and professional. Although he is kind of late to make his first start. But, I thought he looked good. He broke well out of the gate, then he looked curious while turning his head towards the horse to his inside. He looked like he wanted to go then Prat kind of took him back and made a run turning for home going probably 3 wide. The winning margin was only like 1/2 length, but I was impressed with the way he did it. Your thoughts??

        By the way, Maximum Security won today; he looked good too. Looks much more mature and professional, IMO. Race 8 at Belmont.
        Last edited by mrginandtonic; 10-27-19, 01:52 AM.
        Comment
        • littlekona
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-19-15
          • 5242

          #3854
          Originally posted by mrginandtonic
          Sir STR, remember a couple of weeks I asked about two first time starters, Turnagain Ride (ML 8-1) was trained by Chad Brown and Ashaar (ML 3-1) was trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Anyways, as it turned out, DRF experts were impressed by Ashaar as well and they have him a horse to watch. While Chad Brown horse was scratched and still hasn't run yet.

          Anyways, today there were two horses (the 7- Ra'ad and the 8- Thousand Words trained by Baffert and they were both in the 4th race. While Ra'ad was expensive ($500K), but the 8- Thousand Words was a whopping $1 million!! If you get a chance, can you take a look at the replay and let me know what you thought. I thought he was very impressive and professional. Although he is kind of late to make his first start. But, I thought he looked good. He broke well out of the gate, then he looked curious while turning his head towards the horse to his inside. He looked like he wanted to go then Prat kind of took him back and made a run turning for home going probably 3 wide. The winning margin was only like 1/2 length, but I was impressed with the way he did it. Your thoughts??

          By the way, Maximum Security won today; he looked good too. Looks much more mature and professional, IMO. Race 8 at Belmont.
          I had the Thousand Words pounded yesterday @ 6/5 very happy with the professional win he sure did deliver BUT I will say that the second place horse is one to look out for too as he has run some good races and here he broke tad slow and rushed up which probably cost him a closer finish or even the win....
          Comment
          • mrginandtonic
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-11-09
            • 7731

            #3855
            Originally posted by littlekona
            I had the Thousand Words pounded yesterday @ 6/5 very happy with the professional win he sure did deliver BUT I will say that the second place horse is one to look out for too as he has run some good races and here he broke tad slow and rushed up which probably cost him a closer finish or even the win....
            Yeah, originally I had that 2 horse single then I saw that $1mil horse.... I read somewhere that Thousand Words were sold at Keeneland last year and he was one of 27 horses that were sold for $1mil or more..... lol, I guess $1mil is chump change for a lot of people nowadays...
            Comment
            • str
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-12-09
              • 11560

              #3856
              Originally posted by mrginandtonic
              Sir STR, remember a couple of weeks I asked about two first time starters, Turnagain Ride (ML 8-1) was trained by Chad Brown and Ashaar (ML 3-1) was trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Anyways, as it turned out, DRF experts were impressed by Ashaar as well and they have him a horse to watch. While Chad Brown horse was scratched and still hasn't run yet.

              Anyways, today there were two horses (the 7- Ra'ad and the 8- Thousand Words trained by Baffert and they were both in the 4th race. While Ra'ad was expensive ($500K), but the 8- Thousand Words was a whopping $1 million!! If you get a chance, can you take a look at the replay and let me know what you thought. I thought he was very impressive and professional. Although he is kind of late to make his first start. But, I thought he looked good. He broke well out of the gate, then he looked curious while turning his head towards the horse to his inside. He looked like he wanted to go then Prat kind of took him back and made a run turning for home going probably 3 wide. The winning margin was only like 1/2 length, but I was impressed with the way he did it. Your thoughts??

              By the way, Maximum Security won today; he looked good too. Looks much more mature and professional, IMO. Race 8 at Belmont.
              I was just as impressed as you were. seemed very professional which for a firster is special. Probably here more from this one down the road.

              Max Security looked like a different horse. You know, it's funny how horses become special as they grow mentally as well as physically. Funny thing about this horse is I thought his break through moment to the level of a REALLY nice horse was when he lost. It was not the Derby for me at all. It was the race at Monmouth when he was short. What he did, out of gas, from the 1/4 pole turning for home, to inside the 1/8th pole before just running out of air, was very special. I remember commenting on that. When I saw that, I was sold. And for him to come back the other day and run the way he did knowing full well he was not 100%, and especially after overcoming a life threatening illness, leaves little doubt in my mind that he by far the best 3 year old this year. For me, the Classic or whatever does not matter. Don't care who wins and by how far. This horse is the best IMO. And yes, good eye ! He has graduated to a pro with his maturity and the way he goes about his business.
              Comment
              • str
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-12-09
                • 11560

                #3857
                Originally posted by littlekona
                I had the Thousand Words pounded yesterday @ 6/5 very happy with the professional win he sure did deliver BUT I will say that the second place horse is one to look out for too as he has run some good races and here he broke tad slow and rushed up which probably cost him a closer finish or even the win....
                I'm with you . That was exactly my thoughts on the race.
                Comment
                • JBEX
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-02-12
                  • 23089

                  #3858
                  Originally posted by str
                  I was just as impressed as you were. seemed very professional which for a firster is special. Probably here more from this one down the road.

                  Max Security looked like a different horse. You know, it's funny how horses become special as they grow mentally as well as physically. Funny thing about this horse is I thought his break through moment to the level of a REALLY nice horse was when he lost. It was not the Derby for me at all. It was the race at Monmouth when he was short. What he did, out of gas, from the 1/4 pole turning for home, to inside the 1/8th pole before just running out of air, was very special. I remember commenting on that. When I saw that, I was sold. And for him to come back the other day and run the way he did knowing full well he was not 100%, and especially after overcoming a life threatening illness, leaves little doubt in my mind that he by far the best 3 year old this year. For me, the Classic or whatever does not matter. Don't care who wins and by how far. This horse is the best IMO. And yes, good eye ! He has graduated to a pro with his maturity and the way he goes about his business.

                  on the brisnet figures the pace in that race was about (if you average first two calls) about 7 lengths faster than par.. it was his highest final figure of his career.. it was only 1 point slower than the haskell
                  which was run at a very slow pace.. the pace in the florida derby was a joke and the pace in the ky derby was also on the slow side.. so I agree the pegasus (race he lost) was his best effort prior to saturday


                  I just have a feeling he may be a better sprinter/miler type than a route horse.. wouldn't be surprised if servis is thinking about the cigar mile at aqueduct on 12/7 if all is well. .. whatever the case he's a very talented horse
                  Comment
                  • JBEX
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 23089

                    #3859
                    btw I don't think saying he might run in the cigar mile is a bold prediction..any horse who wins the bold ruler like that probably has that race in their sight
                    Comment
                    • Louisvillekid1
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-17-07
                      • 52143

                      #3860
                      Has str written about Santa Anita deaths?

                      If so , someone please bump ... ty
                      Comment
                      • str
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-12-09
                        • 11560

                        #3861
                        Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                        Has str written about Santa Anita deaths?

                        If so , someone please bump ... ty
                        I have written about it but it was mostly speculation as I am not there and cannot see first hand what the deal is. I also do not know the death rate at Santa Anita when compared to the other tracks. Have to think it is higher than other tracks but IDK for sure. Plenty of mistakes were made by management last winter with the soaring amount of fatalities at Santa Anita but I would not pin all the problems on them , just like I would not pin all the problems on any one group. I feel it is a collective blunder, some of which cannot be fixed in the short term IMO.

                        The set of problems at Santa Anita , in my mind, must be understood by some people. I mean, what the hell. It's your livelihood, you are there every single day for many hours each day. How can you NOT know or at least have some parts of the puzzle in place. But just like we saw with Baffert , they step out of the camera for a week and go hide in Kentucky at the sales or the sideline of the University of Kentucky football team during the game ( which he absolutely did), and it all calms down and goes away. THAT, might be a great way to handle the press or PETA, (who does not help themselves with the BS they constantly try and pull to set people up), but it does nothing to solve the actual problem. And while I could touch on what I am sure are some of the problems, what's the point? It's just Blah Blah Blah and it fades to black in a week or so.

                        I will say this. I will never respect anyone or any ownership that cannot be transparent when it comes to something like this. And while I am confident that some of the problems that lead to this large singular problem are man made, others are a byproduct of where they are taking place. We know the soil sucks out there. We know the ownership and the decision making of management is a disaster. We also know that horses are more brittle today than ever, thanks to weak bloodlines caused by lasix as well as bute and other legal or previously legal drugs.

                        We also know that the drug industry does a pretty good job of staying one step in front of the state chemists that work hard to test for all the available and even some "not" available drugs. But when they DO find an overage, like 12 pecograms,( or 12 one trillionths of a gram,) a pompous , arrogant, and to those that truly know the game when it comes to drug overages, ignorant on the subject lawyer argues what a small amount it is. And because the offender is a big name guy instead of a 24 year old up and coming claiming trainer who would not have cheated if his life depended on it out of, if nothing else, the respect for the game, the limelight trainer walks while the 24 year old loses the purse ( a second place finish as 2nd choice) and is given 10 days for one pecogram, yes, "one" one trillionth of a drug that was supposed to be administered no closer than 7 days before racing which had been the window of time for the previous 20+ years with no positives within the state of Md. and it was documented to have been given by a the most honorable licensed practicing vet in Md., 4 days in a row but stopped 13 days before the race. That drug was procaine. No, not the type that numbs joints like some jackass might try and give at Cahokia Downs back in the day, but a procaine that has a side drug identifier in it so as to tell state chemists it was NOT in the joint but indeed in a drug to reduce infection, inflammation in the area of the wound, and fever and is given in a large muscle. An infection that a horse had gotten at Pimlico from a friggin rat bite on her rump while laying down in her stall at night. That procain was mixed with that drug because that thick medication, when injected, can have a burning sensation for a minute or two unless the procaine is added to sooth the area before any discomfort can arise. Un friggin real! What a dump. Hi HO Pimlico. They should be so proud.

                        Sorry for the rant. True story though. And the rant is caused by the fact that both the trainer I mentioned as well as the track management out there could take the lead in figuring this out and try and do something about it. But instead they continue to hide on a sideline or behind an office door and just try to make a buck and to hell with everything else.

                        It makes me sick as I know it does plenty of fans as well. But until people or a higher authority demand more than they have so far received nothing will change. Personally, I passionately disdain the current behavior.

                        It's stuff like this that made an impossible decision a whole lot easier to make back in what seems like a lifetime ago.
                        Comment
                        • JBEX
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-02-12
                          • 23089

                          #3862
                          hey str


                          posted a link to a good article about the history of atlantic city racetrack in harthebar's thread..there's quite a few mentions of mark reid so thought you'd be interested
                          Comment
                          • Louisvillekid1
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-17-07
                            • 52143

                            #3863
                            Originally posted by str
                            I have written about it but it was mostly speculation as I am not there and cannot see first hand what the deal is. I also do not know the death rate at Santa Anita when compared to the other tracks. Have to think it is higher than other tracks but IDK for sure. Plenty of mistakes were made by management last winter with the soaring amount of fatalities at Santa Anita but I would not pin all the problems on them , just like I would not pin all the problems on any one group. I feel it is a collective blunder, some of which cannot be fixed in the short term IMO.

                            The set of problems at Santa Anita , in my mind, must be understood by some people. I mean, what the hell. It's your livelihood, you are there every single day for many hours each day. How can you NOT know or at least have some parts of the puzzle in place. But just like we saw with Baffert , they step out of the camera for a week and go hide in Kentucky at the sales or the sideline of the University of Kentucky football team during the game ( which he absolutely did), and it all calms down and goes away. THAT, might be a great way to handle the press or PETA, (who does not help themselves with the BS they constantly try and pull to set people up), but it does nothing to solve the actual problem. And while I could touch on what I am sure are some of the problems, what's the point? It's just Blah Blah Blah and it fades to black in a week or so.

                            I will say this. I will never respect anyone or any ownership that cannot be transparent when it comes to something like this. And while I am confident that some of the problems that lead to this large singular problem are man made, others are a byproduct of where they are taking place. We know the soil sucks out there. We know the ownership and the decision making of management is a disaster. We also know that horses are more brittle today than ever, thanks to weak bloodlines caused by lasix as well as bute and other legal or previously legal drugs.

                            We also know that the drug industry does a pretty good job of staying one step in front of the state chemists that work hard to test for all the available and even some "not" available drugs. But when they DO find an overage, like 12 pecograms,( or 12 one trillionths of a gram,) a pompous , arrogant, and to those that truly know the game when it comes to drug overages, ignorant on the subject lawyer argues what a small amount it is. And because the offender is a big name guy instead of a 24 year old up and coming claiming trainer who would not have cheated if his life depended on it out of, if nothing else, the respect for the game, the limelight trainer walks while the 24 year old loses the purse ( a second place finish as 2nd choice) and is given 10 days for one pecogram, yes, "one" one trillionth of a drug that was supposed to be administered no closer than 7 days before racing which had been the window of time for the previous 20+ years with no positives within the state of Md. and it was documented to have been given by a the most honorable licensed practicing vet in Md., 4 days in a row but stopped 13 days before the race. That drug was procaine. No, not the type that numbs joints like some jackass might try and give at Cahokia Downs back in the day, but a procaine that has a side drug identifier in it so as to tell state chemists it was NOT in the joint but indeed in a drug to reduce infection, inflammation in the area of the wound, and fever and is given in a large muscle. An infection that a horse had gotten at Pimlico from a friggin rat bite on her rump while laying down in her stall at night. That procain was mixed with that drug because that thick medication, when injected, can have a burning sensation for a minute or two unless the procaine is added to sooth the area before any discomfort can arise. Un friggin real! What a dump. Hi HO Pimlico. They should be so proud.

                            Sorry for the rant. True story though. And the rant is caused by the fact that both the trainer I mentioned as well as the track management out there could take the lead in figuring this out and try and do something about it. But instead they continue to hide on a sideline or behind an office door and just try to make a buck and to hell with everything else.

                            It makes me sick as I know it does plenty of fans as well. But until people or a higher authority demand more than they have so far received nothing will change. Personally, I passionately disdain the current behavior.

                            It's stuff like this that made an impossible decision a whole lot easier to make back in what seems like a lifetime ago.
                            Man I love this response

                            just imagine if one these go down

                            it won’t even matter why

                            like most things

                            -str , take the hour 20 ride up 95

                            someday soon

                            would be my pleasure to teach an old dog some new tricks lol

                            for real , my honor
                            Comment
                            • Louisvillekid1
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-17-07
                              • 52143

                              #3864
                              str

                              I just think you wrote the anthem

                              love the passion and the rant

                              shit a buddy of mine just retired a horse to Autisic kids few weeks back “lil thumper “

                              because of thumps and today at the OTB found out (possibly) his trainer , Kathleen O’Connell ran this horse in VA

                              Used his papers mike Sebastian on ownership

                              —- Idk much about this game , just wanna buy you whiskey and beer until I can absorb a piece

                              even if I forget it in the morning

                              much love
                              Comment
                              • JBEX
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-02-12
                                • 23089

                                #3865
                                hey str


                                a horse we discussed (pg 108..3756-3763) once before coming back for her 2nd career start.. R6 #3 power move (8-5).. it's the tempted stakes for 2yo fillies @ 1 mile @ aqueduct.. realize no great rewards but there are 2 others who are also low ml's #4 sweet kisses (3-1) and #5 maedean (2-1).. both of those expensive horses who broke their maidens in their 2nd (last) start.. it was one of those races that even though she won imo how she won not reflected unless you saw the race


                                referred to this race as the nashua (3762) in that back n forth which of course is the boy's edition of this race (not today)
                                Last edited by JBEX; 11-01-19, 07:31 AM.
                                Comment
                                • JBEX
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-02-12
                                  • 23089

                                  #3866
                                  Originally posted by JBEX
                                  hey str


                                  a horse we discussed (pg 108..3756-3763) once before coming back for her 2nd career start.. R6 #3 power move (8-5).. it's the tempted stakes for 2yo fillies @ 1 mile @ aqueduct.. realize no great rewards but there are 2 others who are also low ml's #4 sweet kisses (3-1) and #5 maedean (2-1).. both of those expensive horses who broke their maidens in their 2nd (last) start.. it was one of those races that even though she won imo how she won not reflected unless you saw the race


                                  referred to this race as the nashua (3762) in that back n forth which of course is the boy's edition of this race (not today)
                                  R9.. sorry.. still about 45 mins away
                                  Comment
                                  • Louisvillekid1
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-17-07
                                    • 52143

                                    #3867
                                    I’m so happy for Manny Man, the ride he put on Sharing was nothing short of his excellence

                                    hope you got to watch or seen replay

                                    he’s just my favorite , but The Ortiz brothers were absolutely amazing again

                                    Str , please lmk about your thoughts on Manny’s performance on SHARING in the BC juvy filly turf (r8 yesterday)

                                    he was riding as hard as ever and every step I thought was perfect

                                    I don’t know how to post Cali replay links

                                    ty kind sir



                                    -Jose was unreal and almost got it done for Pletcher

                                    I had a 11/12 Ex Box

                                    but I’m just so happy he gets 2 mounts out there

                                    and brings a $30 horse home while running 3rd in the other to Wesley wards super horse ... manny paid $7+ to show


                                    American pharaoh is shining as a sire , on multi surfaces and distances

                                    fresh off winning the Belmont meet
                                    Last edited by Louisvillekid1; 11-02-19, 05:40 AM.
                                    Comment
                                    • str
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-12-09
                                      • 11560

                                      #3868
                                      Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                      I’m so happy for Manny Man, the ride he put on Sharing was nothing short of his excellence

                                      hope you got to watch or seen replay

                                      he’s just my favorite , but The Ortiz brothers were absolutely amazing again

                                      Str , please lmk about your thoughts on Manny’s performance on SHARING in the BC juvy filly turf (r8 yesterday)

                                      he was riding as hard as ever and every step I thought was perfect

                                      I don’t know how to post Cali replay links

                                      ty kind sir



                                      -Jose was unreal and almost got it done for Pletcher

                                      I had a 11/12 Ex Box

                                      but I’m just so happy he gets 2 mounts out there

                                      and brings a $30 horse home while running 3rd in the other to Wesley wards super horse ... manny paid $7+ to show


                                      American pharaoh is shining as a sire , on multi surfaces and distances

                                      fresh off winning the Belmont meet
                                      Just watched it. Great ride. Every step was indeed perfect. Even up to always being a head or neck in front of the horse outside her. Clean right eye = a lot easier trip than with it covered up. A flawless ride ! That was aided by having a ton of horse but he did everything right.
                                      Graham and Anita his wife are such incredible people. I cannot be happy enough for them. Always cool to see really good people have good things happen to them.

                                      Real nice job Kid.
                                      Comment
                                      • str
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-12-09
                                        • 11560

                                        #3869
                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                        R9.. sorry.. still about 45 mins away
                                        Ran a nice race but Maedean was much better yesterday wasn't she ?
                                        Comment
                                        • JBEX
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-02-12
                                          • 23089

                                          #3870
                                          Originally posted by str
                                          Ran a nice race but Maedean was much better yesterday wasn't she ?

                                          no question and I think the fact that maedean had run her only two prior races at a mile and it was power movie's first attempt at it might have put her at a disadvantage.. be interesting to see if shug tries the demoiselle at 1 1/8 miles or rests her till gulfstream..my guess would be the latter
                                          Comment
                                          • str
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-12-09
                                            • 11560

                                            #3871
                                            Originally posted by stevenash
                                            Question?

                                            I saw Street Band's last outing and was impressed.

                                            Does she have a chance in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

                                            She will go off at a nice price I believe.

                                            Thanks fellas.
                                            Having looked at the form I do see what you mean about her running a monster race last time out in the Cotillion. She ran great.

                                            So what do I think? IMHO, it looks to me that her last race set up about as good as a race can for her. They set stupid fast fractions early and she was the beneficiary of that hot pace. She finished well for sure but many within that race collapsed from the wicked early pace. I am not taking anything away from her in that last race but what I see on paper for today is a race that has very little speed. That said, the horse that looks solo early should be Serengeti Express. And she was the horse that took all the worst of that same hot pace at Parx last out. Because I have always been a pace makes the race guy, the lack of today's pace combined with the crazy pace last out points to Street Band having to come back today with probably a better effort than she put in last time to contend. And her last effort was her all time best. And while Serengeti Express runs very fast no matter if she is pressed or not, this race should give S. Express a chance to relax, if that is possible and make it a bit tougher on closers to excel.
                                            Also, this is for olders as well as 3 year olds and the advantage should be with the olders typically. Obviously Midnight Bisou looks very strong having won 3 of 4 here but at 6-5 I will probably try and go elsewhere or box 3 horses in an exacta, her being one of them. I might be mistaken but I think the Breeders Cup Distaff has had more favorites, (like Midnight Bisou today) win, than the other BC races have for whatever that might be worth.

                                            Not sure what I will do for sure here but leaning right now at taking a swing with another 3 year old in Dunbar Road. Should get a decent price and Chad must have seen something in her last race that told him to try this spot. Maybe being inside and trying to rally? Those charts suggested that the rail was not really the place to be that day but I have not seen the replay, just the charts so it's really just a guess.

                                            So if I had to play now, without seeing payouts which can sway me value wise on or off a selection, I would probably say Midnight Bisou, Dunbar Road and Serengeti Express boxed. Sure do want to see how the track plays as well but early on, that is my lean.

                                            Wish you luck if you play the race. She sure was impressive last out. No doubt about that. But because I cannot see that same pace scenario setting up today( but you never know right), I will try what looks like the solo speed Ser. Exp, the best older IMO Midnight Bisou and Dunbar Road who might have had a couple of excuses in that last race.

                                            Hope that makes sense.
                                            Comment
                                            • mrginandtonic
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-11-09
                                              • 7731

                                              #3872
                                              Good morning Sir, any comments on the Classic?? I see a lot of handicappers on McKinzie? I still don’t think 1 1/4is his distance. I really like Yoshida and Vino Rosso. I think both of these will get a good trip. Any thoughts or suggestions would help. Thanks in advance.

                                              By the way, I’m all on Dunbar Road. Glad we see it the same way, also like Blue Prize.
                                              Last edited by mrginandtonic; 11-02-19, 10:24 AM.
                                              Comment
                                              • str
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-12-09
                                                • 11560

                                                #3873
                                                Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                                                Good morning Sir, any comments on the Classic?? I see a lot of handicappers on McKinzie? I still don’t think 1 1/4is his distance. I really like Yoshida and Vino Rosso. I think both of these will get a good trip. Any thoughts or suggestions would help. Thanks in advance.

                                                By the way, I’m all on Dunbar Road. Glad we see it the same way, also like Blue Prize.
                                                Seems like a race that multiple horses can win but I went with Vino Rosso.

                                                GL today Mr. GandT.
                                                Comment
                                                • mrginandtonic
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-11-09
                                                  • 7731

                                                  #3874
                                                  Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                                                  Good morning Sir, any comments on the Classic?? I see a lot of handicappers on McKinzie? I still don’t think 1 1/4is his distance. I really like Yoshida and Vino Rosso. I think both of these will get a good trip. Any thoughts or suggestions would help. Thanks in advance.

                                                  By the way, I’m all on Dunbar Road. Glad we see it the same way, also like Blue Prize.
                                                  Made two costly mistakes in my selections. Both of my second pick came in, Blue Prize and Vino Rosso.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Louisvillekid1
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 10-17-07
                                                    • 52143

                                                    #3875
                                                    Originally posted by str
                                                    Ran a nice race but Maedean was much better yesterday wasn't she ?
                                                    Thank you

                                                    so much brother

                                                    what Irad did last 48 hours was so special

                                                    my New York pilots showed out

                                                    you can read my passion and pain

                                                    i just want kneel and thank you for everything
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Louisvillekid1
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-17-07
                                                      • 52143

                                                      #3876
                                                      Cali racing lol, str ... east coast took not only Cali to class, but we had them take a school bus stop to go across country
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Louisvillekid1
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-17-07
                                                        • 52143

                                                        #3877
                                                        A short bus

                                                        lol

                                                        str , your my Ali

                                                        the greatest

                                                        im a mess but you get me

                                                        I can’t express enough how much
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Louisvillekid1
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 10-17-07
                                                          • 52143

                                                          #3878
                                                          Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                                                          Made two costly mistakes in my selections. Both of my second pick came in, Blue Prize and Vino Rosso.
                                                          Vino I told you

                                                          blue prize was so impressive last out

                                                          i tend to fade best performances, way too much

                                                          But jersey joe

                                                          hey I handed 2 NY singles that paid $4k for $0.50 cents
                                                          Comment
                                                          • str
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-12-09
                                                            • 11560

                                                            #3879
                                                            So it’s that time of year again where I want to remind anyone that cares that tracks where winter weather is an issue will start or have already started adding cushion to help fight the cold and wet elements. By doing so, that means that more dirt will be moving towards the rail with each trip around with the harrows. That also means that the track will start needing almost daily grading to keep the cushion consistent from the rail out.
                                                            This depends on the angle of pitch each track has. Maryland tracks for instance have much more pitch than Charlestown in W. Va has.
                                                            Things to look for:

                                                            Check under the rail when they show the head on view and look to see if the dirt is smooth throughout or if it is messy. If messy, they did not grade. That could mean that the rail is dead and the outside posts are favored as well as the outside closers. Inside speed should struggle in those conditions as well as inside closers.

                                                            If it is clean and smooth, that does not mean that it is a great rail. It Means that the opportunity for an over grade IS possible. Especially if the forecast is for wet weather later that day or before that 1st race tomorrow. Because you cannot grade mud sometimes a premature grading or over grading is the only option. Those choices can easily lead to a great rail for all horses with an inside trip. Again, watch the 1st race or two and draw a conclusion.
                                                            You can keep notes of who had trips with or against any bias and add those to the form . Over time, keeping these notes can explain better or worse results than otherwise anticipated.
                                                            You would be amazed at what you can explain once you have that info.
                                                            Also check the chute. They usually save the chute for last and it does not need as much maintenance. That said, the inside that 1st 1/8th or more can be great or terrible. Something to consider as you watch races.
                                                            Any questions about this, feel free to ask or do a search for words within this thread like scrape, bias, 3 star, grade or road grader.
                                                            Hope this helps.
                                                            Good luck to everyone.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JBEX
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-02-12
                                                              • 23089

                                                              #3880
                                                              so at maryland tracks is there a consistent set of circumstances where they will grade the tracks at this time of the year... is it one of those things that should be done daily and is not because it requires too much time and effort ??
                                                              Comment
                                                              • str
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-12-09
                                                                • 11560

                                                                #3881
                                                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                so at maryland tracks is there a consistent set of circumstances where they will grade the tracks at this time of the year... is it one of those things that should be done daily and is not because it requires too much time and effort ??
                                                                There is a consistent set of circumstances at every track as to when they want to grade, need to grade or are forced by the elements to grade.
                                                                The maintenance crews work their butts off, especially in the winter where weather is a problem. Time and effort is not it at all. I remember seeing John Passaro, the head of the track maintenance crew, grading the Laurel surface himself late into the night when I would go to my barn around midnight or so to check in on a special circumstance a horse might have going on. And the crew will harrow all night long, no exageration, to keep the surface from freezing. That used to happen often in the dead of winter. They are some of the real unsung heroes of racing that never get mentioned.

                                                                The added dirt simply means more work to keep it right and the added harrowing means more dirt moving down the slope which means more work keeping it even which of course means more biases typically.
                                                                In July, you roll it, seal it at night and that's it. Most biases occur that time of the year on major stakes days and holidays, when a lot of the the employees are given time off. This years Preakness was a perfect example of that. The rail was golden for all types of runners.

                                                                But the winter is tough, and many a bias will appear due to weather, weekends, etc. If you can monitor these at the track or tracks you play, and give the track a grade such as a 2 star rail, 3 star rail, outside -2 or outside -3 , even, all closers but does not matter where, all speed but does not matter where, etc. then add this as a line in the form , you have a HUGE, HUGE, edge. I know that some forms have this but there is no way in hell I would take someone else's word for that! Call me hands on or whatever but I have known some of the people that are employed to do this for publications like the form for that as well as Beyers and I would not trust their advice on much of anything much less something as sensitive as this.

                                                                I realize that it is a hell of a lot to consciously follow biases. But I did it for years and it helped me claim certain horses as well as not claim certain horses and unless I was not 100% convinced that it is very solid advice and well worth a look, I would not mention it here. But it is a huge advantage if done properly and just knowing where to look to see if the track has been graded or not, puts anyone that cares to look for it in the 1% club of knowledge that is right in front of everyone but almost all do not see. Including trainers and not just a few.

                                                                I do remember a year when 2 owners of mine and myself went in on splitting a triple box blindly on every race at Thistledown for about 3-4 days straight. The rail was sooo dead that every race was a loop a thon of outside horses. I just happened to walk by a TV showing a race there on my way to my box and saw it and mentioned it to my owners. One of them was betting there and had no idea. We just pooled some money and started boxing 8,9,10,11,12 for 1.00 every race. The pools were too small to bet more than that. We hit for some really big payouts. Think we split it up and won a couple of grand apiece or something like that. It was basically free money.

                                                                Every winter, this stuff is there, somewhere, where it is cold and wet.

                                                                The time spent to locate it is well worth the effort folks.

                                                                Hope that helps.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JBEX
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                                  • 23089

                                                                  #3882
                                                                  ok str thanks for the great info..I've always believed in biases but it wasn't a front line thing for me..over the years I've definitely changed my mind about that but still admittedly don't employ it into my handicapping...part of the reason of course is I do things in advance and can't adjust on the fly..guess these biases can carry over to the next day though but that probably has a lot to do with what maintenance does with the track after that days card is complete I gues..I've always felt the typical otb'er (for lack of a better term)comes to these conclusions too fast..going to try and observe this every once in a while and try to get a feel for it..look for things like a lone speed favorite at low odds tiring on the front end.or speed duel and horses holding up well to the wire etc
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • str
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                                    • 11560

                                                                    #3883
                                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                    ok str thanks for the great info..I've always believed in biases but it wasn't a front line thing for me..over the years I've definitely changed my mind about that but still admittedly don't employ it into my handicapping...part of the reason of course is I do things in advance and can't adjust on the fly..guess these biases can carry over to the next day though but that probably has a lot to do with what maintenance does with the track after that days card is complete I gues..I've always felt the typical otb'er (for lack of a better term)comes to these conclusions too fast..going to try and observe this every once in a while and try to get a feel for it..look for things like a lone speed favorite at low odds tiring on the front end.or speed duel and horses holding up well to the wire etc
                                                                    Q. guess these biases can carry over to the next day

                                                                    A. They can but more times than not, the track is either graded to fix a dead rail or the dirt works itself downward towards the rail to make it more uniform if the rail was too thin the day before.

                                                                    Q.
                                                                    I've always felt the typical otb'er (for lack of a better term)comes to these conclusions too fast.

                                                                    A. This is very true. I think that many try and find it while the opposite should be the rule. Let it find you. And understanding the visual I talked about is something that almost nobody ever talks about. At least I have never heard anyone say it.

                                                                    Q.
                                                                    going to try and observe this every once in a while and try to get a feel for it..look for things like a lone speed favorite at low odds tiring on the front end.or speed duel and horses holding up well to the wire etc

                                                                    A. Sure. Because you do all the races prior to seeing the early races, checking the charts and then replays if you can (but understand how time consuming that is) , can explain why certain horses did or did not run to expectations.

                                                                    If people TRY and find a bias, you usually will conclude at some point that there is one. That's not going to work long term. A subtle bias can be run through. A strong one is real difficult to overcome. You cannot get too wrapped up in them or they take away from true handicapping. Just know that they exist and understand why. The hope is, is that there is never one . That the track is always fair and even. Going into it that way keeps you sane at least. Lol.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JBEX
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                                      • 23089

                                                                      #3884
                                                                      I agree with the let it find you approach..there are times when it's very obvious and better waiting for those than guessing if it's gray area territory..understand this happens only so often though


                                                                      today at aqueduct off a 3 day break..weather was good yesterday and small amount of rain on tuesday..is the track more likely to be fair today under these circumstances ??
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • str
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                                        • 11560

                                                                        #3885
                                                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                        I agree with the let it find you approach..there are times when it's very obvious and better waiting for those than guessing if it's gray area territory..understand this happens only so often though

                                                                        today at aqueduct off a 3 day break..weather was good yesterday and small amount of rain on tuesday..is the track more likely to be fair today under these circumstances ??
                                                                        Dark days are usually a day when they would grade. But that could have happened 3 days ago before the rain two days ago. That would make sense. So check under the inner rail and if it is smooth and undisturbed it was graded. ( The blade has to start under the rail to get any residual dirt thus the smooth surface). And that is not to say that because it WAS graded, the rail will be better. What it does mean is the rail will be at least as good as it was last time they raced or can improve from where it was last time they raced . The idea is to have it fair. So that is the goal. A grading only means that the opportunity for an over grading exists and that the rail should NOT be dead. The key now is to see if it is going to rain later today, tonight or tomorrow. They constantly work with the weather and need to stay in front of it so impending rain , especially a soaker or a two day event will always call for a grading prior to. Why? To save the dirty because adding dirt costs money and more importantly, the EPA went crazy on many tracks about 25 years ago with all the pollution into the sewer system and they started levying large fines to tracks that do not control the runoff. So there theory is when in doubt, overgrade. Can't speak for NY for sure but in Maryland, that is an absolute. Especially Pimlico which is tricky anyway as I have written about before in here.


                                                                        I suppose that with only running 4 days in a row, the best scenario for NY will be if a soaker will hit during the 4 days they are running. That will call for work to be done with racing immediately afterwards. THAT, is when you can find the inside a better spot than outside I assume. But I just do not know anything about the routine in NY. as compared to the one in Md.
                                                                        Comment
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