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yes cutchemist42 that's who I was referring to.. easy after the fact but think there were signs that all was not right with this horse based on what I said.. the late debut would bother me less if he hadn't shown works as he did as a young 2yo.. I feel in general with expensive fillies there's less incentive to start early as the big races for 3yo fillies do not draw national attention like the triple crown races do..could be wrong.. interested to here str's takeComment -
Hey STR: what do you know if anything about the drug SCOPOLAMINE. Evidently Justify failed a drug test with this drug in his system after he won the Santa Anita Derby. Looks like according to NY Times there was a cover up. And on another note I owe you 65 more points and will pay by this Sunday. Thx in advance.Comment -
Q. mark casse has a 3yo fts that was an $825k fasig tipton yearling purchase in R2 @ woodbine tonight.. he worked the horse regularly last year at kee after the spring meet from late april till early june (6 to be exact).. then we don't see her again till today with 4 works leading up to this race.. do you think this was a serious problem to put her on the shelf this long?
A. Doing the math backwards, she has most likely been in training for about 100 days. That means she was out of training for 355 days
( approx. ). When a horse gets a year off, if it was one injury, it is indeed a major injury. Those types almost always require surgery and are usually a bad ankle or knee injury. A screw in the shin from a cracked cannon bone will not take that long. Rule of thumb is it was a broken sesamoid, a terrible ankle injury or a lower joint knee injury, very possibly a slab fracture that is also a top contender for terrible injury. Or, if it is soft tissue, it is a tendon injury that is quite severe. Those three I mentioned are all top 5 terrible injuries that take a ton of time to heal properly. Much more often than not, the horse is never the same again but I do understand trying as long has the horse has no further setbacks.
I suppose there is a chance it was 2 lesser injuries but that probably happens 1 out of 6-8 times when looking at 15 months total.
Q. have to think she'd be shooting for keeneland if all was right with this one.
A. When you need a year off, nothing will ever be as if all was right with almost any unraced horse.
Q. understand there's a lot of speculation with stuff like this
A. Yes, that is true but handicapping as you well know, is all about speculation so you must go down this road to try and gauge a horse like this.
Q. woodbine purses are on par with keeneland (and of course woodbine poly) but big gap prestige wise.
A. Absolutely. I think what happens is, the entire mind set of the trainer changes. The horse has lost most chance to ever be a really nice horse. Injury really cost her. So while they are going to try and make the most out of it, it's a tough situation to overcome. The goal will be to have her become a winner in a MSW hopefully there but if not, anywhere as WHERE is not in the catalog when it comes time to sell her or the offspring. The book will simply say , " winner" oir winner in only start or two starts. But it is always written to pump UP the horse so it won't say winner in 10 starts at Finger Lakes. Lol.
If that is accomplished, the next step is to be a stakes winner, IF that can be accomplished. Probably not in her case. That stuff is WHY they are doing what they are doing.
For you, playing against these types on the blind would almost assuredly be +EV. I'm not sure how much but playing them not on the blind, but on a case by case is absolutely going to be a +EV situation. If you had access to a "bet against" exchange, that would be optimum as you have a probable way overbet damaged goods horse to bet against and don't need to take the extra step of finding who WILL win.
The 4 works is also a key in my mind as she no doubt hurt herself just before she was to run her 1st race a year + ago and the trainer will typically be reluctant to put full pressure on for fear of it happening again. That is human nature so that scenario will happen more often than not.
Nice catch! I would say to be actively pessimistic towards these types moving forward and let's see what happens.
Great job JBEX.Comment -
While that is true, if you can win at Saratoga with a baby and compete in or win the Spinaway, it launches a filly into the limelight. Most people will try this unless the horse cannot handle it.
It's kind of a no no to forgo a 2 year old campaign especially these days where many do not run as a 4 year old. Only reason to do it is if the horse gets hurt or cannot handle it for some reason, the latter of which does happen but is kind of rare without there being an underlying problem.
They grow and fill out so much between 2 and 3 that you risk the possibility of helping develop their athleticism as well as their experience.Comment -
thanks str...good to hear it from you as this obviously you're area of expertise.. not that this situation doesn't arise here and there but this kind of like the perfect storm especially with how casse is viewed up north..good anywhere but their he's the man.. and running at woodbine probably another bad sign as mentioned even though he has a strong presence thereComment -
this is good to know also..it should be viewed much more as a negative when an expensive auction purchase or homebred with a big pedigree gets started late (filly or colt) .. great information to have and something I wasn't sure of.. interesting how it could be important to their development if the horse is physically able to run earlier on..prestige factor of winning early also a big thing.. thanks againComment -
Yes.
Probably the biggest part of it is that when you train these babies instead of letting them stay in a field, several extremely important things happen. In no particular order, they build layer of bone density by training and putting some strain on their legs and joints. Not undue strain but vigorous exercise. Just like humans. Thicker bone density equals stronger bone and joints so that part is terribly important. They build muscle which is obviously what you want in any athlete. They build lung capacity which is vital to any athlete competing. I used to have the occasional owner of homebreds that thought they were being find to their pet/ horse to not start them until they were well into their 3 year old year. It was a huge mistake on their part. I never saw in any horse I was around where that was anything but counterproductive.
Blood circulation makes humans as well as animals function better. It's one of the true keys to life for all of us.Comment -
Q. what do you know if anything about the drug SCOPOLAMINE
A. It comes from a weed that CAN but rarely as far as I am concerned is, grownand baled along with hay. It would be in the hay when it is cut, dried, and baled.
Q. Evidently Justify failed a drug test with this drug in his system after he won the Santa Anita Derby.
A. So I have read as of this morning.
Q. Looks like according to NY Times there was a cover up.
A. So I read 2 versions of the story and here is my take. The NY Times story is slanted towards a cover up and cheating taking place. I am not saying for a minute that that is not what happened but IMO the story is slanted.
The other version is slanted in the other direction, meaning, ho hum, it was a positive but a small amount is allowable and even though this was more it would be very hard to prove now that the absolute insurer rule have shown cracks in it when presented to the courts.
So, I guess it comes down to which side you want to go with. I prefer to go with maybe a little of both. In most cases, when 2 sides exaggerate, the truth typically lies somewhere in between.
So this weed lands in a bale of hay and Justify is the only horse that eats it? Or were there other overages of Bobs during the same week which would be about how long a shipment of hay would have lasted in a barn of 40 horses. Bales are divided into flakes. About 9 flakes to a bale. Each horse gets about 3-4 flakes a day and 1 or 2 more at night. So is he the only one that ate it? That's an important question. Anybody ask that? Had Bob had any positives for this weed before or after this event?
If someone wants to tell me that Justify was the only horse that had a positive in that barn that week and it was 4 times the legal limit and it was because he ate a weed that stinks like smelly feet and horses smell hay before they eat it because it passes right across their nose to get to their mouths and he didn't turn his nose up to it, and the hay was of such poor quality that it had weeds or a weed in it and the groom of such a nice horse who gave him the hay did not see it which would have been damn near impossible and the groom didn't smell it, which all grooms are taught to be on the lookout for mold in the hay so they typically smell it as they fill a hay rack by bending over and filling it about a foot from their own nose, and that is what happened , I find it hard to believe I would have said, umm... ok, sounds good to me.
Then, they wait until well after the triple crown to have a meeting that, umm, was closed door whereas all Commision and Stewards meetings are supposed to be done with minutes attached so as to be made public, and decide that 4X the legal limit is fine. ( Think there was much pressure there being as if he had been DQ'ed within a month of the race he would not have been able to run in the Derby because of the points system but now he is a triple crown winner.)
I am sorry to say that this case has more stink on it than the weed has on it.
As you know, I am NOT a fan of that trainer. And, 300 nanograms is a boat load of a positive. Often times we talk about as positive in pico grams like 1 or 2 pico grams of something showed up as a positive. Well, a picogram is 1 trillionth of a gram . It takes 1000 picograms to become a nanogram. Therefore, 300,000 picograms =300 nanograms. Like I said, a boat load.
Sadly, so many spinners will be out to deal with this they will probably be playing Rubberband Man in the background.
So Easy, for me, the cover up or whatever someone wants to call it, is really no more than what goes on every single day when it comes to double standard. Different strokes for different folks.
I could go on until my fingers fell off but I think we all see what this is. I am pretty sure I said a few years ago that once the absolute insurer rule was flipped, as it was with Graham in Ky. as well as others, people with pull or who trained for people with pull would have an unfair advantage. And don't get me wrong, the absolute insurer rule was awful to be under. It had me and all trainers completely responsible for anything that went on in our barns even when we were home and asleep. But, ... as crappy as that was, and it really was, you see where you end up if it is not in force.
I don't think I will be surprised with where all this goes. Lawsuits from those that bought shares of the horse when this knowledge was withheld. If there was not a full disclosure clause in those contracts I would be shocked, The people that finished behind him or were not allowed to run because of points, which Justify , if ruled upon by the book and in a timely manner, would not have had any, so no entry into the Derby, other trainers that WERE given days or lost purses because of this weed and what if it was for less than 300 nanograms, and blah, blah, blah. But , on the bright side of things, it's a great day to be a lawyer that works within in the horse racing business. Happy hour will be rockin tonight.
But sadly, it's a terrible black eye for a sport that has no eyes left to blacken.
Any follow ups, feel free.Comment -
Thx for the take STR. Was not aware you were not a fan of the trainer of Justify. Escaped my thinking. If I come across any new info may hit you back.Comment -
Here we go:
An attorney who said he represents Baffert wrote a letter to the newspaper challenging its reporting. Along with issuing similar denials that Baffert gave, W. Craig Robertson III called the article "sensationalism" and noted the minuscule levels at which Justify tested positive.
I know a trainer that was given 10 days and the purse taken away at Pimlico for 1 picogram of a positive. That amounts to 1/3000th of the "miniscule" amount you are talking about .Comment -
hey str
the talk we had about casse's horse at woodbine got me thinking..at what point would you stop putting that strategy (my other thread) into effect with 3yo maidens ...was thinking end of the big winter spring meets ??Comment -
Hey STR: shipped you the last 65 points. Thx.Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 09-15-19, 05:52 AM.Comment -
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As a follow up to the Justify situation:
Having read several more articles since the my last post about this case, one thing is clear. The trainer, racing commision, and all involved have no interest in clearing their names with pertinent facts. It would be so easy to do so if indeed the facts proved it, which they clearly would if they do exist.
Instead, they want to trot out lawyers, writers and such to spew spin without taking any time to go to the facts and explain what happened. It would not be hard to do so. But to date, they choose not to. All I have heard is denial and spin.
If all the facts were laid out it would clearly show one of two things. Either this is a disgrace or this is misunderstood and the circumstances indeed warranted a dismissal against all parties. And that could indeed be the case. But if it is misunderstood, wouldn't you want YOUR name cleared? I sure as hell would. So IMO, the longer this sits quietly waiting to die as soon as the next bad thing happens, the more I have to conclude that there is plenty to this story that neither the trainer or the commission are willing to discuss. Typical race track backdoor politics. A part of the game that ALWAYS made me sick.Comment -
actually I meant at what point do you start becoming more concerned with a 3yo making their first start too late? if I like a horse because of pedigree,cost or combo of both in general would a summer or later start eliminate him as a bet..would you just stick to 2yo's (anytime) or 3yo's in the winter/spring ?Comment -
Why the timing now?
For stud fees?Comment -
no just wondering when looking for these potential special horses is there (in general) a starting point that suggests somethings up (bad)or they would have debuted sooner..2yo's there's no questioning but once you get beyond the big winter spring meets is a 3yo making his first start a negative (too late)..that's what i'm asking str's opinion aboutComment -
I think that what you would be trying to determine is an injury that caused the horse to be on the shelf for longer than 9 months. Those injuries are typically 12 months and are always quite serious in nature. That would equate to 6 months of recovery and 3 months of training. So, assuming the horse was in regular training as a 2 year old starting somewhere between March and April, which is typical,( and some are in training well before that in So. Car. or training centers down south) they would need to be shut down no later than July of their 2 year old year. ( they never started so this seems reasonable).
But, because horses can have , and usually do have, minor setbacks like coughing, temp. spikes, abcess in a foot, and the list goes on and on, it would be fair to add 2 months to the count IMO. So that takes us to June of their 3 year old year. Just to be safe, I would feel most comfortable with July of their 3 year old year knowing that each month past that , the probability goes greater as a play against.
The only thing I would check on is if it was a very late April foal or a May foal. If that was the case, you could move the goal posts accordingly. But, the price at sale is typically affected by the lateness of the foal in these highly expensive types so I doubt you will see that often.
Now and then a horse with several smaller setbacks will work their way into this timing scenario but I think that will be rare enough to not consider, knowing that there would be no way for you to have that info anyway. And after Sept. 1st of their 3 year old year, it wouldn't matter to me what the reasons were.Comment -
hey str...below a replay of the eddie d stakes at santa anita today..in your opinion if #5 stormy liberal doesn't get blocked top of the stretch would he have won the race ?
this could be s good thing to know heading to the breeders cup as i'm sure if all's ok he'll be running
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IMHO ... No.
I can break it down by time if you like but I feel he had just shy of 3/16's of a mile to advance and it took him until late to just get by horse that for a short period of time was blocking him. The rest of the time, the rider was happy to sit behind it seemed to me. So I would say that he ran well, but was not quite up to the task of beating them all.
Now if other previous races can prove he is MUCH better in another position than the one he was in, there could be a case made that the trip could have caused him to not run to 100% of his ability. But if he shows that he has been between horses in the past , just off the pace, and fired to win, than it stands to reason that he was just not up to the task yesterday.
Let me know if you want more specifics. I'm happy to provide them.Comment -
I just felt that cost him a lot of momentum being hemmed in coming into the stretch (40-42) .. if the 6 wasn't there maybe he comes out 3-4 paths into open space and to me he would have continued on with a lot of run.. the between horses early on comment is interesting but think you've mentioned it before.. if horses are used to running that way it's not necessarily a detriment.. thanks strComment -
Correct, if they have shown to be OK with that spot before, there should be no reason to NOT be OK with it yesterday. Especially on turf where the spray back into the face and chest is minimal. But if previous races show he did not like it, then sure, lets look again.
Can't see why the rider would have moved more than 5 seconds sooner with a clear run and once clear, it seemed to take forever to pass the horse in front of him.
That is why I conclude the way I did.
BTW.. Loved the names in the race. Pee Wee Reese and Eddie Haskell. Very cool names and no, I'm not "bein a wise guy or given you the business". Lol.Comment -
hey str
lkid1 brought to my attention that lacey is running one at belmont today R7.. discussed a bit in my threadComment -
I was gonna hit the horse if off turf for sure , seemed like perfect placement if so.
Obv could still win , but I discarded with the weather holding off...Comment
