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hey str
lacey has one today in R1.. 2nd career start (3yo) and first time trained by her (from asmussen)..owner team gaudet.. first time running as a gelding and with blinkers on.. debut finished a distant 3rd at a mile.. mike luzzi aboard.. it's a maiden clm $20k
#5 pistoleiro (8-1)Comment -
Good morning sir, read an article the other day about trainer Baffert is gonna replace Smith on McKinzie for the Breeders Cup. What’s you take on that as a trainer? He didn’t give any reason and he doesn’t have a replacement yet. Just said he is not gonna be on his horse and he let smith know early so that he can get another mount sooner rather than later. Tks.Comment -
hey str
lacey had a 2yo filly debuter at laurel R5.. dead last on the backstretch and made an impressive closing move to finish 2nd by about a half length.. her roi in maiden races is impressive.. very undervalued and believe you've mentioned about the family being good with young horsesComment -
My guess is they bought the horse privately after its 1st start. That happens when I very high profile stable is convinced they bought an expensive horse that has limited talent. Basically, they need the stall so they sell it. I say that because its 1st start was a mile. That is a big red flag pointing to a horse that is slow.
So going 6F. was IMO a prep for what they really want which is 2 turns probably at Laurel. Run him there for 15k or something like that and it probably wins.
The Mike Luzzi ride is due to the fact the Luzzi came up with Eddie way back in the day and has career long ties to the Gaudet family. Mike started in Maryland. Great guy.
The balls off, blinkers on thing is very common with obviously slow colts as is the mile but 2 turns will be much better than 1 turn typically. The 1st fraction is usually about a second slower which basically gives the slow plodder about 5 lengths more position than it would have going 1 turn.
Lets see what happens .
I have yet to look at how it ran yesterday but will check it out.Comment -
Hi Mr. GandT.
I saw that . Didn't see the race but he probably feels that the horse wants more early position or activity from the rider. Smith is NOT that type of rider typically. So, in my mind, I'm understanding of it. Sometimes , no matter how great a rider is, they might not be the best fit for a particular horse.
What I don't follow is when you do that, you usually already have the next rider lined up , at least in your head or maybe have 2 names in your head. Sounds like he is looking for a speed type rider. Someone who is more of a speed, position rider than a sit , relax, run type.
My guess is he knows who it will be and has not said it yet to keep people guessing (and talking about him). Bit of a drama queen sometimes. Just loves the camera.
Giving a top rider time to find another mount for a big race is indeed race track etiquette so that makes sense as well. So who is the best speed rider around ? Or the top 2. As long as they are not already taken, it's probably one of them.
Hope that helps sir.
All the best to you !Comment -
no problem str.. figure you're always interested in what she's doing with your ties to the family.. one other question while I have your attention.. shug has two 2nd time starters today.. 2yo's with big pedigrees (don't they all lol).. one of them first time lasix and the other running a 2nd time without the stuff.. he's off the chart with first time lasix move.. if he weren't anything special with the move I would just assume it's a bleeding issue.. but the high % win rate with it seems interestingComment -
Thank you STR. To be honest, I was never a fan of McKinzie, my take on him is that he was never a classic distance horse. Heck, I think he might even struggle at 1 1/8. I am just wondering could it be a "move" to make people think that Baffert "believed" that his horse should have won and that all is well for the Breeders' Cup Classic. While deep down, maybe he knows that his horse doesn't have what it takes to run at this distance. One to keep the owners happy and two is to keep his horse as the probable favorite (a vulnerable favorite, IMO). Maybe I am over thinking this, but that's just my gut feeling. Then again, maybe you are right. Smith just isn't the right jock for Mckinzie? Maybe some one Talamo may be a better fit. But, after 13 or 14 starts, Baffert just now realize this?? Doesnt' make much sense. Anyways, Thank you very much for your take. Much appreciated as always.Comment -
Tony is debuting which could be a monster today
#6 Amazing Ride in the 6thComment -
hey str
shug had a 2yo fts winner at belmont today in R6.. phipps homebred, big pedigree but the way she did it will be a little hidden to the public.. 6f dirt msw.. 8 seconds into the race she was either on the lead or within a half length of it.. by the time they got to the quarter she was 6.5 lengths off the lead..think the rest is less important but won in hand I'd say last 30-40 yards.. aptly named "power move"Comment -
The lasix or not issue with Shug is all about the pedigree and history of the sire and dam as well as , of course, what the baby looked like when they scoped it.
Many of his babies are from horses he trained. Don't know if either of these fit that but that makes it pretty easy to know going in.
For him, it is oftentimes a different scenario than it is for other trainers.
Hope that makes sense.Comment -
Q. my take on him is that he was never a classic distance horse. Heck, I think he might even struggle at 1 1/8.
A. Totally agree.
Q.I am just wondering could it be a "move" to make people think that Baffert "believed" that his horse should have won and that all is well for the Breeders' Cup Classic. While deep down, maybe he knows that his horse doesn't have what it takes to run at this distance. One to keep the owners happy and two is to keep his horse as the probable favorite (a vulnerable favorite, IMO).
A. Yes. Yes. Yes !!!
You are seeing it in real time sir.
Not as much number 2 , but with him, maybe. Lol. But you are scarcely spot on IMO with number one. What this does is save face, appease the ownership and gives him 2 ways to go in the Classic. If the horse somehow runs very well, he is a hero. If the horse folds, he will be retired and it is probably hinted at that he came back a little off, nothing serious enough to consider not breeding to the horse but you know, a pulled muscle of a bit off behind, wink, wink, nod, nod, and he is retired. He goes from a win, lose proposition to a win, win, proposition. It's not all about McKenzie, it's all about the trainer.
Q. Maybe I am overthinking this, but that's just my gut feeling.
A. Your gut is dead right.
One thing I will confess to here and now. I try hard not to bash trainers, jocks, or the sport unless fully warranted. To constantly do so would prove nothing and could only add to all the paranoia and bad speculation that swirls around this sport already.
It would only make people feel worse instead of better about the game they obviously care for as well as make me sound like a bitter former trainer which I am anything but. I loved the game, and always will. And my goal has always been to help people see things and read things they would not otherwise have a chance to. I can only hope that my efforts have helped more than a few people.
Because of that , it is my total pleasure to let people that read this thread know, that when they say or think something that to the general public might sound a bit far fetched, sometimes so much so that they are not even sure themselves is indeed spot on, I can reaffirm their thoughts and let them know that what they are thinking is EXACTLY how a trainer in this spot would think. You Mr. GandT, IMHO have nailed it.
Q. Then again, maybe you are right. Smith just isn't the right jock for Mckinzie?
A. He probably isn't. The horse might be better off engaging early on and Smith's style of riding is better suited for the relax and make a run type. As I have said here a ton of times, riders do not like labels of speed, closer or whatever but just like most athletes, they are going to be better in some situations than in others. And over time, they will gravitate towards those strengths even when they don't realize it. It's human nature. Because we already know that the closer experiment does not work with McKenzie, being forwardly placed is the last hope.
Q. Maybe some one Talamo may be a better fit. But, after 13 or 14 starts, Baffert just now realize this??
A. The horse probably had multiple small excuses like not quite fit enough or other things that we did not know about but the trainer did. In the last race, there were probably no excuses and the horse was as ready as Bob could have him, and he ran flat. In Bob's defense, sometimes wishful thinking and stuff like that can make you hang onto a theory too long. That is what probably happened here.
That is the most sense I can make of it.
Great job again Mr. GandT ! Color me impressed with your overall knowledge of the game as well as the game within the game.
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Probably a very useful horse.
The tip to being a speed horse prior to the running, which is something he does not encourage but if that's who the horse is, than that's who the horse is, was the rider listed. A very talented speed rider. See how trainers can match up horse wants to riders strengths.
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NO Nay Never is a grass sire to look for as I have seen many in UK and now some in USA 2 and 3 year olds winning and looking good..
Just saw one of the easiest winners at PARX race race #8 that sire troubled trip and won for fun like sprouted wings in stretch
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pretty good first crop.. think his fee more than quadrupled after his freshman year
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Thanks for sharing.
An edge not everyone will have, at least for a while.
I hope people take note and keep an eye out.Comment -
interested to see what army mule produces.. $10k stud at hill n dale.. first year stallion this year so the yearlings won't hit the sales ring till next year.. have a hunch he's going to be a good one with the dominant performances... think he was no fluke costing so much out of a cheap stallionComment -
How many jocks are riding with buzzer's nowadays?
I know that lil machine is like the size of finger tip now.
I've heard quite of bit, about a handful of riders I won't name for now.Comment -
None unless they are out of their minds anywhere where purses are even decent.
And anywhere where they are high, you would have to be nuts to take a shot like that.
A jock can make a ton of money if they have an ounce of sense in todays game.
But.. you always have those backyard idiots that will try it.
My guess is places like Louisiana Downs where it seems corruption and old school antics still abound as well as where purses are very small.
If people are telling you a big name jock at a major circuit is using one, let me know.
And ask them to point it out as to where and when.
I will be happy to watch some replays.
But my guess, it's just an excuse why they lost.
In todays game Kid, there is just too much money to ride a race with a buzzer unless you have absolutely nothing to lose.
Oh, and fingertip size sounds too me like it would be very awkward to try and handle. A rider would have to have it strapped on to their fingertip prior to the start and it would be quite evident while in the gate when both hands need to be down , in front and on the mane.
A freeze frame of the gate would almost have to reveal it. So for that reason alone, I don't buy that.Comment -
Louisana is always corrupt
Luis Reyes
diaz jr
harry Hernandez
saez brothers
carmouche
ive heard rumors
santana jr I’ve heard referred to as machine king
but I’m skeptical of course just rumors
I read Asmussen got in trouble while back , it’s why was removed from HOF ballot I thought
But I mean it’s a felony and they making money already so I agree with youComment -
I posted something about him (as a new stallion ) once before but figured I'd throw this up once again..be a while till we see his first two year olds run but will see how much interest his yearlings draw next year
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Accusations were being floated around about Santana and Asmussen several years ago.
They were not proven but, I certainly understand the skepticism.
Have to think after that, they both are clean as a pin. If not, it's only a matter of time.
And how incredibly stupid that would be.Comment -
I kind of look at this the other way str.. when I look at a sire all I'm interested in is that sire.. friesan fire is a $4k sire.. I realize you have ap indy behind that and he's by seattle slew but to me it ends with the sire.. and usually when you have a cheap sire the quality of the dam is on the same level (of course always exceptions to that).. this dam was a decent runner 31-5-8-2 and won over $200k and won a listed stakes.. 6 other stakes attempts were not graded company and was out of the
money.. her progeny were all nothing special.. to cost $825k with those specs to me means the horse is something special.. he out-ran his bloodlines.. of course going 10 flat at the timionium sales (something you would know more about) sure helped his price along also..i'm guessing you have to look the part at that point to work that fast.. so to me costing what he did relative to his immediate pedigree and his monster performances in his short career are what make him intriguing to me as a stallion.. the downside as you mentioned once before were his durability issues which might get passed on to his progeny but that's another issue altogetherComment -
Thank you sir for your taking your time on this and your compliments. Watch now McKinzie is gonna win by open lengths... lol
I have another question about morning lines. How accurate do you feel reflect the ability the horse? We have all heard the phrase, “watch the tote board “. What are your thoughts?Comment -
Here’s an example
race 2 Belmont
Quiet Out East , it just says claimed by Linda Rice
ill almost be willing to bet , next time out
she isn’t listed as owner
sometimes I see it , but lots I don’tComment -
In order to get 825k the horse has to be an exceptional mover, look like the Rock standing next to Sheldon, run 10 flat, and look and act like the smartest horse at the sale.
That said, I understand that it is hard to get past a 4k sire. And on that alone, you are right. In the broad picture, just ok. But as a 35k yearling, if you wander back, you touch all the bases for possible brilliance.
I see the AP Indy which brings in to play, Seattle Slew but FF's mare was by the champion, Dehere. That brings Deputy Minister and Secretariat into the mix. And the Secretariat mares are like gold compared to most Sec. sires.
Looking at Army Mules mare we find a Maryland Bred that had Dupont bloodlines but limited talent. I learned early on that some of the best mares were ones that were regally bred but never as good as their blood suggested they should be. Not that champion mares don't produce, but more like a chance for that greatness to show up through their time in the breeding shed more so than their time racing.
She checks a lot of boxes with Mr. Prospector, Storm Bird, which obviously brings Northern Dancer and Nearctic along with her and then you see that the mare brings Raise a Cup which drags along Raise a Native and her dam brings War Admiral and Man O War into the picture.
With inbreeding of Secretariat and Raise a Native too me, that's a page that, for a cheaper sire, is outstanding. It's also fun for me to look back at those that ran in the 60,s when I first started trying to learn about breeding and see how they grew. It's been quite a while since I did that.
And because of my roots, which were as you know, Md., east coast like Monmouth and Del. Park in the summers, to see JJ Crupi and Scanlon as the consignors of the 2 sales, it really hits close to my roots.
I do know that you can probably find a lot of those names in a lot of horses, especially the nice ones if you look back, but having not done it for so long, along with familiarity of a few pieces of that puzzle, I have become a fan.
Thanks again for another trip down memory lane.Comment -
no problem str and appreciate your perspective on it.. definitely as you said a lot of major influences in his bloodlines.. I thought of one other thing when I looked at the pedigree.. a p indy obvious stamina but ff out of a dehere mare lol and with the dam sire being crafty prospector that's a lot of speed influence.. looking forward to see what hits the track in 2021Comment
